After three weeks in the NFL season, we’re starting to get a picture of teams who will contend, teams who are headed in the right direction, and others who still have lots of areas to improve. We’re also getting some great data on which matchups to attack and others to avoid, giving us plenty of info to break down headed into Week 4. The main slate on DraftKings includes 12 games on Sunday afternoon for the second week in a row. We’ve got another Monday Night Football doubleheader in addition to the Thursday and Sunday matchups, leaving 24 teams in the player pool.
Even though we still have a few days before kickoff, it’s never too early to start lining up your NLF DFS lineups for Week 4. Some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar for this week.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jayden Daniels ($6,500) Washington Commanders (+3.5) at Arizona Cardinals (50.5 total)
Daniels gets the benefit of having his big Monday night performance come after the salaries were already out for this week. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback in Chris Raybon’s and Sean Koerner’s projections.
On Monday, Daniels threw for 254 yards and the first two passing touchdowns of his career while leading the Commanders to a huge road win in Cincinnati. He added 39 yards and a third touchdown on the ground to finish with 28.06 DraftKings points. He finished as the No. 4 QB for the week and is currently the No. 2 QB so far this season behind only Josh Allen.
He’ll look to keep rolling this week against Arizona, who have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and gave up a huge game to dual-threat QB Josh Allen in Week 1. Daniels is looking to be a cheaper version of Allen this week and will look to have similar success against the Cardinals.
Daniels has produced over 28 DraftKings points in two of his three games in the NFL and has double-digit rushing attempts in each of those contests. His rushing potential gives him a very high ceiling and a high floor. He has the highest ceiling projection and second-highest floor projections of all QBs in Raybon’s projections and the fourth-highest in Koerner’s. Getting him at the sixth-highest salary at the position is a great way to start your lineups for Week 4.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Diontae Johnson ($5,600) Carolina Panthers (+1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (48.5 total)
Veteran wide receiver Diontae Johnson was another huge breakout performer in Week 3. The first-year Panther has the highest projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in both Koerner’s and Raybon’s projections for Week 4 as his Panthers host the Bengals in a battle of the big cats.
Johnson got a huge boost from Andy Dalton replacing Bryce Young and went off for 29.2 DraftKings points in Week 3 after producing just 3.9 DraftKings points and 4.5 DraftKings points in the first two weeks of the season. He received more targets (14) than he had in the first two weeks combined and racked up eight catches for 122 yards and a touchdown.
This week against the Bengals, Johnson could be even more of a focus since Adam Thielen (hamstring) is dealing with an injury. During his time with the Steelers, Johnson was seen mostly as an elite possession receiver, and he should be able to continue to rack up catches and yards as Dalton’s top target this week.
The Bengals gave up a wide receiver touchdown in each of the last two weeks, allowing Rashee Rice and Terry McLaurin each to go for 100+ yards and a score. Johnson will look to attack that same matchup as the Panthers look to drop the Bengals to 0-4 and improve to 2-0 with Dalton at the helm. Even if they don’t get the win, with Dalton under center, this offense looks strong enough to sustain multiple fantasy-viable producers.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Aaron Jones ($6,400) Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers (43.5 total)
Jones is in a potential revenge game as he and his undefeated Vikings set sail for Lambeau Field. Jones has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs in Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ and the second-highest using an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty’s, Koerner’s, and Raybon’s. Jordan Mason is the other elite value option, but Jones is a little cheaper and has the added juice of the revenge narrative against his former squad.
In his first three games with Minnesota, Jones has produced 18.9, 10.8 and 28.8 DraftKings points. He had his first game with 100+ rushing yards for the Vikings on Sunday against the Texans and scored his first touchdown of the season on a pass from Sam Darnold. He finished with five catches for a second straight week and has become a key part of the passing game.
His production as both rusher and receiver makes him stand out as a play with both a high ceiling and a relatively high floor. Whether his team is playing from ahead or behind, he should get plenty of touches with the opportunity to find the end zone.
The Packers gave up a huge game to Saquon Barkley to start the season and then surrendered 100+ rushing yards to Jonathan Taylor in Week 2. They held the Titans running backs mostly in check last week, although they did allow 69 receiving yards on seven catches to the combo of Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard.
Jones is a very strong RB1 play this week, and this matchup will be one of the most exciting contests of the week. He’s an amazing value as well since there are 11 running backs with higher salaries than him on Sunday’s slate.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Tommy Tremble ($2,700) Carolina Panthers (+1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (48.5 total)
Dalton’s ability to make the Panthers purr puts Tremble on the map for this week as well. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends and holds the top spot in both Koerner’s and Raybon’s projections.
Tremble has served as the team’s primary tight end since Ian Thomas (calf) is on IR. He missed Week 1 with an injury of his own but has logged three catches each of the last two weeks. He finished with 23 and 29 receiving yards, so he hasn’t gone off yet but is getting enough looks to deserve attention under $3,000. Tremble is in the final year of his rookie deal and looking to establish his value as a receiver. He also did a great job as a blocker in Week 3, an area where he has been criticized in the past.
With Thielen also on IR, Dalton could rely even more on Tremble going forward, so he’s a good option against the Bengals this week and can even work as a super-cheap flex option. Getting over five fantasy points from a player this cheap is a solid way to stuff in the stars you are targeting this Sunday.
