The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
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Texans at Patriots
This week’s edition of Thursday Night Football is currently a pick’em between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots. Both teams are implied to score 20.25 points, although this could change as the Patriots’ quarterback situation becomes more clear closer to game time.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
While Osweiler and the Texans offense have looked like a fairly good match so far, it hasn’t resulted in fantasy success for Osweiler:
As our Trends tool shows, Osweiler has averaged just 15 DraftKings point in 2016 and he’s posted a poor -1.71 Plus/Minus. Despite ranking second among all quarterbacks in deep ball (20 yards or more) attempts per game, he’s completed just 35.7 percent of these passes. Put simply, Osweiler hasn’t yet shown much capability in producing big fantasy performances; however, keep in mind he still has less than 10 starts to his name. He is the worst-rated QB priced at $6,000 or more on DraftKings in our Tournament Model.
RB – Lamar Miller
Miller never surpassed 22 rush attempts in a single game prior to joining the Texans. He’s now topped this total in consecutive weeks, although his yards-per-carry average is starting to become a concern. Miller never averaged fewer than 4.0 yards per carry during a season, but he’s now below 3.6 yards per carry in 2016. The Texans averaged just 3.7 yards per carry in 2015 — the third-worst average in the league. Miller’s massive usage has still helped him post a +2.57 Plus/Minus and average 18.7 DK points per game in 2016, but his 0.46 fantasy points per opportunity mark ranks just 46th among all running backs, per playerprofiler.com. He’ll face a Patriots defense that allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs in 2015.
RB – Alfred Blue
Blue has just six touches on the season and is losing passing down work to Jonathan Grimes. He is not a fantasy option as long as Miller is healthy; Grimes may actually have more upside as the Texans’ backup running back.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Will Fuller was drafted to help stretch the field for the Texans offense, although Hopkins has been the more efficient deep threat through the first two weeks. Osweiler has targeted Fuller on seven more deep passes than Hopkins, but Hopkins has averaged over 11 more yards per target, per sharpfootballstats.com. Hopkins has just one more target than Fuller on the season and is averaging 2.5 fewer targets per game compared to last season. Hopkins is still in the top eight in DraftKings points per game among all wide receivers, but he could struggle to reach his 192 target mark from 2015 if this fairly-even target distribution from Osweiler continues. The Texans’ passing game will be tested against a Patriots defense that has allowed a league-low 46.55 percent pass success rate.
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller was thought to be a boom-or-bust receiver coming out of college, but through two games he’s been only boom. He’s posted a +12.90 Plus/Minus and averaged 21.05 DK points despite being the clear No. 2 receiver behind Hopkins. Fuller has been succeeding in large part thanks to his game-changing speed. He’s brought a vertical element to the Texans’ passing attack, as evidenced by his five receptions of 20 yards or more (tied for the most in the league among all wide receivers). Fuller has averaged 23.44 yards per reception, a total that could be even higher if he had better hands. He’s priced at $4,800 on DK with a high 17.8-point projected ceiling. Fuller will be tested Thursday night against a Patriots secondary that PFF ranked as the third-best in the league.
WR – Jaelen Strong
Braxton Miller is unlikely to play Thursday night and it appears Strong will take his place. Miller had just six targets in two games, as the Texans offense has revolved mostly around passes to Hopkins and Fuller in between handoffs to Miller. Strong hasn’t done much in his career even when given a role in the offense, as evidenced by his 7.7 PPR points per game in two career games with five or more targets. His -2.9 DK Projected Plus/Minus is among the worst marks for non-minimum priced receivers.
TE – Ryan Griffin
Griffin has just four targets this season and none in the red zone. He won’t be a fantasy option unless the Texans and Osweiler decide to start looking his way every once in a while. He’s run routes on only 26 snaps this season, per PFF.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Jacoby Brissett
In relief of Jimmy Garoppolo at the end of the second quarter, Brissett came into the game against the Dolphins with a 21-0 lead and completed just six passes for 92 yards. The game plan was extremely risk-averse: 52 of his 92 passing yards were on two short screen passes to Martellus Bennett. This is a tough situation for the rookie on a short week. He has a projected floor of just 3.4 and 3.2 points on DraftKings and FanDuel; it could get ugly.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
As a Patriot, Blount has scored 25 touchdowns in 32 career games. This is clearly his backfield through two weeks: Blount owns a 73.91 percent rushing share and 100 percent rushing share inside the 10-yard line. He has been largely inefficient (3.78 yards per carry) and has zero targets in the passing game, but he has a clear role and has a lot of touchdown upside given his goal-line work. In Week 3, Blount faces a Houston defense that gave up the eighth-fewest points to RBs on DK in 2015. He is still a much better value on DraftKings at $4,400; he has an 87 percent Bargain Rating there. The matchup is risky, but his salary continues to be too cheap to ignore.
RB – James White
Of all the Patriots so far, White has vastly underperformed expectations. He’s averaged 5.5 targets per game — a 16.18 percent target share overall — but just five carries. White is almost entirely dependent on the passing game for production. With Brissett under center in Week 3, White could produce in a safety valve role, as Brissett’s average depth of target (aDot) on nine passes last week was just 1.1 yards. According to our player projections, White has the 23rd-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and is priced as the RB34. At a position that relies almost entirely on volume, White has limited upside in his current role.
WR – Julian Edelman
With Gronkowski out the first two weeks, Edelman leads the Patriots with a 26.47 percent target share. Gronk has cut into Edelman’s production in the past; that is a concern if he plays in Week 3. It is tough to trust any passing options in this offense given the quarterback situation, but Edelman is as good a guess as any to be targeted heavily in the short-to-intermediate passing game. Per our Trends tool, players with comparable salaries, targets, Vegas totals, and projected points have historically performed 2.05 points above expectation on FanDuel.
WR – Chris Hogan
Just two of Hogan’s six targets came with Brissett behind center, but he does have a 14.71 percent target share through two weeks with a 12.4 aDot mark (second-highest on the team.) His main competition for targets is Danny Amendola, who scored two touchdowns on four targets in Week 2. Hogan still has a higher projected floor, but every pass catcher for the Patriots is risky this week with Brissett at QB.
WR – Danny Amendola
While it is highly unlikely Amendola will put up another multi-touchdown performance, he does currently own 50 percent of the passing targets inside the 20-yard line this year. He’s a GPP-only play on a week-to-week basis, but he definitely will get snaps and be involved in this offense.
TE – Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski could make his season debut against the Texans in Week 3; his price has dropped $1,400 and $600 on DK and FD without playing a snap. It’s not a great matchup considering the Texans finished 2015 as the fifth-best defense in Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends. Still, Gronk has historically performed well against elite tight-end defenses, as evidenced by his +2.80 Plus/Minus against top-10 defenses in Plus/Minus allowed to the position in 2015. If he plays, Gronk will be a low-owned, high-ceiling GPP option.
TE – Martellus Bennett
If Gronkowski can’t go, Martellus Bennett will once again step in as the Patriots’ No. 1 tight end. After spending most of Week 1 blocking, Bennett exploded in Week 2 by gaining 114 receiving yards and a touchdown on six targets. Even though he was not heavily involved until this past week, he still has a 16.18 percent target share in this offense. His 2.44 fantasy points per target mark ranks fifth among all tight ends in 2016. This game’s current implied Vegas total of 40 points is tied for the lowest in Week 3. His upside is tied to Gronk’s situation and the uncertainty at quarterback for New England.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
