The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
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Redskins at Giants
This game currently has a total of 46.5, which is the sixth-highest total on the Sunday slate. The Giants are currently favored by 4.5 and implied to score 25.5 points. The visiting Redskins, on the road for the first time this season, are implied to score 21 points. The forecast calls for perfect football weather with a low of 51 degrees and a high of 70 degrees, slightly below MetLife Stadium’s normal temperatures for this time of year.
Washington Redskins
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Kirk Cousins
Apparently Cousins’ teammates don’t like that. ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio reported early this week that “multiple offensive players have begun to complain about quarterback Kirk Cousins.” It’s talk like that and Cousins’ rocky start that has his FantasyLabs projected ownership at two to four percent in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker tournament this week.
Cousins has attempted 40-plus passes (his 89 total is tied for the NFL lead) and thrown for at least 329 yards in both games this season. Over the past 12 months, the Giants defense has allowed the highest Plus/Minus to opposing quarterbacks (+4.4) among defenses on the Sunday slate. Per our Trends tool, in Cousins’ last nine division games, he has averaged 22.09 DK points per game with a +6.30 Plus/Minus. He’s been even more impressive on the road in division games, averaging 26.37 DK points per game, a delicious +11.04 Plus/Minus, 100 percent Consistency, and just 1.3 percent ownership in large tournaments. Cousins is an absolutely elite play this week in guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Matt Jones
According to Football Outsiders, the Giants have been below average (ranked 19th) against the run in the first two games of 2016. Jones has handled 68.97 percent of the Redskins’ rushes so far this season. Only nine running backs in the NFL have handled a larger share. He was on the field for 39 of 67 offensive snaps in Week 2. He is currently a top-three rated RB in the Bales Player Model for DK. Jones’ 93 percent Bargain Rating on DK makes him an economical play this week.
RB – Chris Thompson
As 4.5-point underdogs on the road, the projected game flow leans towards Thompson seeing a fair share of snaps (at least late) in this one. He has been on the field for 54 percent of the Redskins’ offensive snaps this season. Even with that opportunity, however, Thompson has gotten just 7.14 percent of the Redskins’ targets this season. That’s equal to Vernon Davis‘ and Josh Doctson‘s marks. Thompson is tough to trust, but he can always rack up points in a PPR format like DK.
WR – DeSean Jackson
Jackson was hyped up by the Washington media in the preseason, but he hasn’t exactly exploded in his first two games. With 15 targets this season, he has been Cousins’ third-most targeted player. However, Cousins flat out missed him on at least one pass that would have been a long touchdown last week, and he’s always a threat to score from deep. With an 83 percent Bargain Rating on FD this week, exposure to Jackson on that site is prudent. According to our Trends tool, Jackson has a history of providing consistent value in similar spots on FD.
WR – Jamison Crowder
Crowder leads all Redskins wide receivers and is tied with Jordan Reed for the team lead in targets (18) this season. Only 17 players in the NFL have seen more targets in 2016. He has played more snaps than Pierre Garcon in each of the Redskins’ games, and to this point has gotten more opportunity than both Garcon and Jackson. Per our Matchups tool, Crowder will be covered by rookie Eli Apple (who has a middling 57.2 grade from Pro Football Focus) this week. Despite the increased opportunity and matchup with a rookie, FantasyLabs projected ownership for Crowder on DK is zero to one percent this week. Stacking him with Cousins in the Milly Maker is extremely enticing and should be an infrequent combination.
WR – Pierre Garcon
While Garcon has seemingly fallen to the fourth spot in the Redskins’ passing game, he has still been targeted 13 times total and not less than six times in a game. The Redskins passed on 58.65 percent of their offensive plays last season (per The Fantasy Authority), and they have passed a whopping 89 times this season (compared to just 29 rushing plays). Completely ignoring peripheral WRs in a pass-first offense is a dangerous decision. Just ask Danny Amendola.
TE – Jordan Reed
The Giants have been elite against tight ends this season, ranking third against the position according to Football Outsiders. Of course they did play Coby Fleener in one of the two games, so that stat is pretty noisy. Despite having the highest projected ceiling and floor among TEs on FD (where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating), there are four TEs on the site with higher FantasyLabs projected ownership. Per our Trends tool, since 2014, Reed has produced a +4.11 Plus/Minus on FD with 66.7 percent Consistency when playing the Giants. Reed is an excellent play at TE on FD this week for both GPPs and cash games.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
Only Eli could throw for 368 yards and no touchdowns in a game with a 54-point total. Fresh off that DFS debacle, many will overlook Manning even though he has the fifth-highest Vegas implied point total on the Sunday slate. Per our Trends tool, when in similar spots on FanDuel, Manning has generated a +2.48 Plus/Minus with 64.7 percent Consistency. With Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and Victor Cruz at his disposal, Manning is always capable of exploding for three or more touchdowns. As usual, he’s a sure to be a low-owned tournament play with decent upside.
RB – Rashad Jennings
Jennings currently has a cast on his left hand. He was out-snapped by Shane Vereen in Week 2. Vereen also has four red-zone opportunities to Jennings’ zero this season. That said, Jennings has handled 56.36 percent of the Giants’ rushing attempts, and he’s currently the No. 3-rated running back in the CSURAM88 Player Model for FD, where Jennings has a 98 percent Bargain Rating. The Redskins have been one of the four worst teams defending the run in 2016 (per Football Outsiders), and the Giants are playing as 4.5-point favorites at home. You’ll need to keep an eye on his status as Sunday approaches, but with his FantasyLabs projected ownership under five percent this week, Jennings is a worthy play in guaranteed prize pools. Per our Trends tool, RBs in comparable spots have performed well above expectations historically.
RB – Shane Vereen
According to Bryan Mears’ Week 2 Opportunity Analysis, Vereen has gotten 36.36 percent of the Giants’ carries, the fourth-most targets on the team, and has had more red-zone opportunities inside the 10-yard line than anyone on the team. That’s pretty good for a player priced at just $3,700 on DraftKings. With Jennings healthy, Vereen is an inexpensive value play with upside on DK. Without Jennings, he would become an incredibly elite play.
WR – Odell Beckham Jr.
Things got weird the last time Beckham and Redskins cornerback Josh Norman faced each other, and Beckham ended up suspended for one game thanks to his actions. Redskins coach Jay Gruden said “(Norman) might play Odell every snap traveling.” Beckham is coming off a game in which he was incredibly high-owned in the DFS community but scored just 16.60 DK points. People could be off him this week as a result.
Last season, Beckham was targeted 27 times and scored two touchdowns in two games against the Redskins. He has been targeted just 19 times this season and has yet to score a touchdown. The last time Beckham went through a similarly-unproductive two-game stretch (at Philadelphia and vs. Dallas last season), he exploded for 130 yards, three touchdowns, and 42.0 DK points at just 6.6 percent ownership in the following game. Our FantasyLabs projected ownership has Beckham at five to eight percent in DK’s Milly Maker this week. If recency bias rears its beautiful head, Beckham is an elite play in GPPs.
WR – Sterling Shepard
If Norman does follow Beckham, that would leave Bashaud Breeland (who was flamed by Antonio Brown in Week 1 and switched off of Dez Bryant late in the game in Week 2) to cover the talented Shepard. According to Football Outsiders, the Redskins have been the worst team in the league covering No. 2 receivers this season. Shepard has been on the field for 128 of the Giants’ 135 offensive snaps and has been the third-most targeted Giants player. In a game that kind of feels like it could become the shootout everyone was anticipating the Giants to get into last week, Shepard is a fine value play on both sites.
WR – Victor Cruz
To this point of the season, Cruz has seen more targets than Shepard while playing slightly fewer snaps. Cruz has two red-zone targets inside the 10-yard line, third-most on the team. FantasyLabs projected ownership has Cruz under five percent on both DK and FD this week. Stacking Cruz with Beckham and Eli in the Milly Maker or Sunday Million could be a profitable endeavor.
TE – Larry Donnell
Donnell has seen more snaps and more targets than Will Tye this season, but they are still in a time share at the tight end position. It’s an ugly situation to handicap, and avoiding it until a clear leader emerges would be judicious. That said, punting the TE position and taking a flyer on either player when paired with Eli in a large-field GPP would pay dividends if they came up with a touchdown catch.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
