The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
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Falcons at Saints
This game currently has a 53.5-point implied Vegas total. The Saints are currently 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 28 points. The Falcons are implied to score 25.5 points as road underdogs. Weather will not be an issue in the Superdome.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
Through two weeks, nobody has more fantasy points than Ryan. Averaging 29.6 DraftKings points per game, Ryan has thrown five passing touchdowns while completing 72.6 percent of his passes. Eclipsing 300-plus passing yards in each game so far, Ryan has also excelled against the Saints throughout his career, hitting that threshold seven times in his last ten games versus the divisional rival. The Saints have allowed the highest Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs over the last 16 games. With how Ryan’s been playing as of late, we can expect that trend to continue, especially since Ryan is playing in the Coors Field of NFL DFS.
RB – Devonta Freeman
With a top-five rating in the CSURAM88 Player Model, Freeman presents an interesting struggle for DFS players. Per our Matchups tool, his usage has gone down substantially in 2016:
At the same time, Freeman offers immense potential at an affordable price after a -$1,100 Salary Change this week. Last year, Freeman put up 38.6 DK points in the Superdome. Trending downward, Freeman is an upside play worth worth considering in guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Tevin Coleman
Coleman has twice as many targets as Freeman on the season, as the two backs have blurred the lines into a full blown committee. Per the Week 2 Opportunity Report, Coleman has seen 62 of the team’s offensive snaps over the past two games compared to Freeman’s 70. More importantly, there hasn’t been a lead back emerge when they get inside the 10-yard line, with Coleman seeing three opportunities and Freeman five.
New Orleans allowed the most red-zone trips to opponents last season as well as the third-most receiving yards and second-most receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs. Coleman isn’t without his warts, but he’s in a terrific situation if you’re chasing the 25.25 points Atlanta’s implied to score.
WR – Julio Jones
Julio has seen just 18.1 percent of the team’s target market share after seeing 31.2 percent in 2015. While Ryan has been flying high accruing fantasy points, it’s mostly been at the expense of Julio: Ryan has been distributing the ball to more of his receivers. Julio has just 13 targets through two games, but he will get a chance to pile it on against P.J. Williams, whom he is projected to face on most of his snaps. Julio has notoriously fared well against New Orleans, averaging a 7.2-108.2-0.2 stat line. He currently owns this week’s highest projected ceiling among DK receivers at 33.9 points.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
Sanu’s range of outcomes make him a matchup-dependent receiver to target. With a high implied total, this game is an opportunity to target Sanu, who should benefit from a matchup against Sterling Moore, who’s on his sixth team in seven seasons after not making the cut for the Bills this preseason. Sanu has seen 6.5 targets per game this season and offers nice value at FanDuel, where he has a $6,500 salary and 86 percent Bargain Rating. He leads the Falcons with three targets inside the 10-yard line.
WR – Justin Hardy
Hardy has five targets and two receptions on the season. That one of them went for a touchdown probably means little.
TE – Jacob Tamme
Tamme currently leads the team in targets and has averaged 14.8 DK points over the first two weeks. Back-to-back eight-target outings should have our ears perked up for another potential good game, especially given the matchup against the Saints, who allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends last season and the fourth-most receptions and receiving yards. The Saints’ struggles have continued so far in 2016, with them giving up a +3.1 Opponent Plus/Minus to TE. With eight DK Pro Trends, Tamme might even be usable in cash games this week, given his $3,200 price tag.
TE – Austin Hooper
Hooper had two big catches for this offense last week, and the Stanford rookie is starting to draw our attention. He only has four total targets through the first two games, but he has 98 receiving yards. His volume definitely needs to be monitored.
New Orleans Saints
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Drew Brees
Last week’s matchup against the Giants fell short of expectation, but Brees at home is always a sound play. New Orleans is currently second in pass play percentage (71.8 percent), and Atlanta is tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed this season. Brees’ 34.3-point projected ceiling on FD leads all quarterbacks in the 16-game Thursday-Monday slate, with Brees ranking top-five in passing touchdowns (five), passing yards (686), and completions (57).
RB – Mark Ingram
Ingram’s usage has become a major concern early in the season. After seeing 18 touches per game last year, he’s now down at 13.5 and currently posting a -4.73 DK Plus/Minus. Ingram fell flat last week but has another nice matchup at home against the Falcons. He once again leads all running backs with 10 Pro Trends, and Atlanta has allowed a +2.9 Opponent Plus/Minus to RBs.
RB – Travaris Cadet
Cadet has firmly secured the pass-catching role in this offense. In Week 2, he saw 19 snaps and three targets, all of which were inside the 10-yard line. His touches have yet to warrant DFS attention, but we should remain vigilant, with Ingram’s declining usage and Cadet’s red-zone work.
WR – Brandin Cooks
We’ve seen the splits with how well Brees performs at home. Cooks also does very well in New Orleans:
Cooks has averaged a +7.75 Plus/Minus at home over the course of his career. In six of those 14 games he’s surpassed 25 DK points.
In Week 3, Cooks gets the benefit of running most of his routes against Robert Alford, who is currently PFF’s 74th-ranked cornerback on the season.
WR – Willie Snead
Snead (toe) is questionable but expected to miss the game on Monday night. If Snead misses the game, rounding out three-wide sets would likely be Brandon Coleman.
Just in case Snead happens to play: He has historically done well at home. With a whopping +9.41 Plus/Minus, Snead has fared astoundingly well in his limited eight-game sample. Snead would mostly be lined up against slot cornerback Brian Poole, who is actually faring quite well this season, ranking between Jason Verrett and Marcus Peters as a top-30 cornerback.
WR – Michael Thomas
Thomas drew the short straw this week, as the rookie will spend most of his time matched up against Desmond Trufant. Despite being a big-bodied receiver, Thomas has yet to garner a target inside the 10-yard line. Nevertheless, if Snead misses this game then Thomas is likely to see much more action as the team’s No. 2 wideout.
TE – Coby Fleener
Through two games, Atlanta ranks 29th against TEs in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The Falcons have allowed on average of 7.5 receptions, 69 receiving yards, and 1.5 touchdowns, yielding the second-most fantasy points to DK tight ends. Fleener has a great matchup.
Of course, Fleener also has a horrible 16.7 percent catch rate and an even higher ’tilt rate.’ He has experienced a -$1,600 Salary Change since the season started, but that salary decrease was definitely warranted. Still, its hard to overlook the +3.0 Opponent Plus/Minus that Atlanta has allowed to TEs over the last 16 games. Fleener could be a sneaky low-owned play, with the public most likely fading him.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
