The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
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Chargers at Colts
This game’s current total of 50.5 points is the second-highest mark in Week 3. The Colts are 2.5-point favorites and implied to score 26.75 points. The Chargers are implied to score 24.25 points but face a beat-up Colts defense missing several starters. The Chargers travel to Lucas Oil Stadium for what could be an absolute shootout.
San Diego Chargers
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Philip Rivers
The Chargers ran the most passing plays in the league (707) and had the sixth-highest percentage of pass plays (64.21 percent) last year, but Rivers threw just 24 passes in Week 2. The short-to-intermediate passing game and dump-offs became an extension of the running game last year, but with both Keenan Allen and now Danny Woodhead done for the year, the target distribution will be something to monitor.
Last week we highlighted Rivers’ game splits with and without Allen, so we should probably do the same for Woodhead this week. Like with Allen, there hasn’t been a huge drop-off in his production with and without Woodhead since he joined the Chargers:
Regardless of who steps up to take over this gaping hole in production, Rivers will enjoy a cake matchup this week against a Colts defense that allowed QBs to complete 73.6 percent of their passes last year. Rivers has the sixth-highest projected ceiling on the slate and is definitely in play for cash games, too. He will be one of the highest-owned quarterbacks of the week in such a fantastic matchup.
RB – Melvin Gordon
In Week 3, Gordon will have almost no competition for touches at the RB spot. In Week 2, Gordon was the first 100-yard rusher for the Chargers in over a year. He’s tied for the second-most red-zone rush attempts in the league through two weeks (11) and tied for the most rushing touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line (along with Ryan Mathews). This is a dream matchup: Not only have the Colts given up the most catches in the passing game to running backs of any team this year (23), they have absolutely bled fantasy points to them:
Gordon will be one of the chalkiest players in all of NFL DFS this weekend.
WR – Travis Benjamin
The biggest beneficiary of the injury troubles in San Diego so far has been Benjamin. Rivers doesn’t go deep often (he had the 16th-most deep balls last year on the most passing plays in the league) but he was finally able to connect with Benjamin deep — once for 43 yards and again for a 45-yard touchdown. The Colts secondary is still missing their top cornerback in Vontae Davis, so it is no surprise that Benjamin is the second-highest rated wide receiver in the Bales DK Player Model for Week 3. His salary of $5,200 puts him squarely in the conversation in cash this week and he owns the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at +6.3.
WR – Tyrell Williams
Williams should also see an uptick in targets. The big-bodied, speedy receiver had a beautiful 44-yard score in Week 2. He could be more of a boom-or-bust type GPP option, as his average depth of target (aDOT) is the highest on the team at 13.4 yards. He has more speed and playmaking ability than Dontrelle Inman and currently has the fifth-highest rating in the DK Tournament Model among WRs for Week 3.
WR – Dontrelle Inman
Inman had a tough matchup last week against Jalen Ramsey (PFF’s highest-graded draft-eligible corner in 2015) in the slot and had just one reception for seven yards. Inman has seen DFS success when Allen has been hurt in the past. In those instances, he has averaged 55 yards and four receptions. He still led all Chargers wide receivers in snaps for the second straight week (87 percent) and should not be ignored as a potential security blanket for Rivers. You could do worse as a GPP flyer than Inman at $3,600 on DraftKings.
TE – Hunter Henry
Antonio Gates is out and the rookie Henry is in. He’s exhibited some ability in his two NFL games and as the starter he’s a bargain at $2,500 on DK and $4,500 on FD.
Indianapolis Colts
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Andrew Luck
Luck had a rough game against the Broncos’ elite defense in Week 2 but still ranks third among all quarterbacks in average DraftKings points despite the down performance. The Colts have called the most pass plays in the league, and he has had plenty of fantasy-friendly opportunities as a result, throwing the third-most deep balls and fourth-most red-zone passes among all quarterbacks. The Colts head into Sunday’s game with a current implied total of 27 points and Luck has excelled in similar games:
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a +7.65 Plus/Minus with 80 percent Consistency and averaged 28.18 DraftKings points in his 10 career games with an implied total between 26 and 28. Luck will face a Chargers defense that finished in the bottom-eight in Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks in 2015.
RB – Frank Gore
Gore’s 17 touches per game mark ranks 14th among all running backs this season, but he doesn’t seem to have the juice left to produce any big plays. He’s yet to gain over 10 yards on a touch in 2016 and has averaged just 0.75 fantasy points per opportunity, per playerprofiler.com. With that said, Gore has had back-to-back tough matchups that have led to the Colts calling the most pass plays in the league. The indication from Vegas is that their matchup against the Chargers could produce a lot of points and the Colts may be playing from ahead — two scenarios that would greatly benefit Gore. Additionally, the Chargers allowed the fourth-most average fantasy points to running backs in 2015. Gore is priced at $5,700 on FanDuel with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and is the second-highest rated RB in our Tournament Model.
RB – Josh Ferguson
Ferguson has caught all seven of his targets this season, producing a respectable 1.30 fantasy points per opportunity. He’s trending in the right direction and has a higher PFF receiving and pass blocking grade than Gore. Still, his usage isn’t high enough to warrant fantasy consideration, although his five DK Pro Trends are the most among all RBs priced at the minimum.
WR – T.Y. Hilton
Hilton’s 11.5 targets per game are currently second among all wide receivers, but he’s posted a brutal -4.73 Plus/Minus and averaged just 11 DraftKings points. His outlook still appears bright, however, thanks to his air yards. Air yards are a solid predictor of future performance as they identify the volume of yards thrown at a receiver, the amount he caught, and his yards after the catch. Hilton has accumulated 29 percent of the Colts’ air yards and this predicts a PPR output of 15.4 points per game – 4.4 more points than his average thus far, per rotoviz.com. He will likely see a lot of Jason Verrett, who is fresh off of holding both Jeremy Maclin and Allen Robinson to under 65 receiving yards.
WR – Donte Moncrief
While Moncrief won’t require surgery, he will miss up to six weeks with a fractured scapula. He was injured during the Colts’ Week 2 loss to the Broncos.
WR – Phillip Dorsett
The loss of Moncrief means a much bigger role in the offense for Dorsett, who is second on the team with 11 targets through two weeks. Luck has his second-highest adjusted yards per attempt when targeting Dorsett over the past two seasons:
Although he struggled last week with just one catch on 62 snaps, Dorsett has been electric when he’s caught the ball, as his 24.8 yards-per-reception average is the second-highest rate among all wide receivers with at least 10 targets in 2016, per PFR. He does have a tough matchup against the Chargers’ top-three defense in Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers in 2015.
WR – Quan Bray
Bray will likely step in as the Colts’ third receiver, but don’t be surprised if they lean on two-wide sets due to the short notice from Moncrief’s injury. Bray is a risky fantasy option this week, but his stock is on the rise as the presumed No. 3 receiver in one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL.
WR – Dwayne Allen
Allen has tied for the third-most targets on the Colts through two weeks, although Jack Doyle’s presence in the offense may be here to stay. That limits Allen’s upside, as he’s averaged 11.5 PPR points in his nine career games with six or more targets but just 5.8 PPR points in games with fewer, per the Rotoviz Game Splits App. He’s priced at $3,800 on DK with a 92 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.4 Projected Plus/Minus. PFF has graded both Chargers safeties Jahleel Addae and Dwight Lowery in the top-32 at their position.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
