NFL Week 3 features a 13-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
Quarterback
Stud
Lamar Jackson is coming off a vintage performance last week vs. the Chiefs. He was pedestrian with his arm, finishing with 239 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, but he was more than able to make up for it with his legs. He dominated with 107 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, giving him 37.26 DraftKings points.
Jackson is currently questionable vs. the Lions, but he is tentatively expected to suit up. As long as that happens, he should provide elite value in this matchup. The Lions have been absolutely shredded to start the season, allowing 41 points to the 49ers in Week 1 and 35 points to the Packers in Week 2. Jackson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.0 on DraftKings, which is the top mark at the quarterback position.
Jackson is also underpriced across the industry. He’s priced as just the third-most-expensive quarterback on DraftKings and FanDuel, but he owns the highest Ceiling Projection in our NFL Models.
Value
Daniel Jones has quietly been one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy to start the year. He’s racked up the fifth-most fantasy points through the first two weeks, yet he’s priced as just the 13th-most expensive quarterback on DraftKings.
He draws an elite matchup this week vs. the Falcons. They surrendered 28.76 DraftKings points to Jalen Hurts in Week 1, and 30.64 DraftKings points to Tom Brady in Week 2. Those are two players with wildly different skill sets, and both crushed vs. the Falcons. Overall, they rank just 27th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA to start the year.
Jones also stands out from a Vegas perspective. The Giants are listed as three-point home favorites, and Jones is not very familiar with being favored. That said, he has posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.26 in six previous occurrences (per the Trends tool).
He’s the clear top choice if you’re paying down at the position in cash games.
Quick Hits
Kyler Murray stands out as one of the best values at the position on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. Billy Ward makes the case for Kyler in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Justin Herbert was in a potential smash spot last week vs. the Cowboys, but he ultimately struggled to just 19.72 DraftKings points. However, he’s in a prime bounce-back spot this week vs. the Chiefs. He crushed in two matchups vs. the Chiefs last season, averaging more than 31 DraftKings points per game.
Justin Fields will make his first career start this Sunday vs. the Browns. He struggled in relief of Andy Dalton last week, but he should perform better with a full week of preparation and a game plan specifically tailored to his abilities. He has elite athleticism for the position – his 4.46 40-yard dash time puts him in the 99th percentile per PlayerProfiler – and rushing ability is a cheat code for fantasy quarterbacks.
Running Back
Stud
This is not a particularly strong slate at the top of the running back position. Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara are not available on the main slate, while Dalvin Cook is questionable with an injury.
That leaves Derrick Henry as the clear top dog. Henry was overlooked by most last week, and he responded with a monster performance. He racked up 182 rushing yards and three touchdowns, leading the Titans to an overtime win vs. the Seahawks.
Perhaps more importantly, he displayed more receiving upside than we’ve seen in the past. He racked up six catches for 55 yards, and he had just one game with more than two receptions last year. A lack of receiving upside is the only thing that has kept him from joining the truly elite fantasy running backs in the past.
Henry definitely won’t fly under the radar this week, but he leads all running backs in Ceiling Projection by nearly four points.
Value
The hate on Clyde Edwards-Helaire has gone too far on DraftKings. He hasn’t been a good running back since entering the league, but he’s still a potential three-down workhorse for the best offense in the league. He’s racked up 27 of the team’s 31 rushing attempts and three of their four targets at the running back position. He hasn’t made the most of them, but CEH did average 5.1 yards per touch last season.
The Chiefs are currently listed as seven-point favorites vs. the Chargers, which makes this an appealing buy-low spot. Historically, featured backs with comparable salaries have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.21 when favored by at least a touchdown.
CEH is projected for the highest rostership at the position on DraftKings, so you can definitely make a case for fading him in tournaments. However, he’s too cheap to pass up on for cash games.
Quick Hits
“It’s more valuable to be first than to be right.” It’s a quote frequented by Jonathan Bales, and Billy Ward applies it to Saquon Barkley in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Ty’Son Williams has split the rushing workload with Latavius Murray over the first two weeks; logging 22 carries to Murray’s 19. That said, Williams has been far more effective. He’s averaged 6.5 yards per carry, while Murray has averaged just 3.4. If that continues, Williams has a chance to emerge as the true lead back. That makes him an appealing option as a large favorite vs. the Lions.
The Browns are also large favorites this week, but Nick Chubb is not expected to carry much ownership. He’s currently projected for just 5.0% ownership on DraftKings, despite the fact that he owns the seventh-highest ceiling projection at the position. That gives him the top leverage score among this week’s running backs, making him a strong contrarian option for tournaments.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Cooper Kupp is expected to carry massive rostership this week, but it’s easy to see why. He’s very reasonably priced at just $6,800 on DraftKings, and he’s been the best receiver in fantasy to start the year. He’s racked up 16 catches for 271 yards and three touchdowns, resulting in an average of more than 30 DraftKings points per game.
He draws one of the best possible matchups this week vs. the Buccaneers. The total on this game sits at a slate-high 55.5 points, and the Bucs are listed as just one-point favorites. That suggests a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.
Kupp also has an elite individual matchup. He does most of his work in the slot – 75% of his routes have come from that position this season – which sets up a battle with Ross Cockrell. Cockrell ranks just 90th out of 100 qualified cornerbacks in terms of ProFootballFocus grade, while Kupp ranks first at the receiver position. Cockrell has allowed a ridiculous 0.67 fantasy points per route run to opposing receivers this season, and Kupp is projected for nearly 40 snaps in that matchup. Ultimately, Kupp is looking at another monster performance.
Value
The Steelers and Bengals will square off in an AFC North matchup this week, and both teams are dealing with injuries at receiver. The Steelers have already ruled out Diontae Johnson, while Tee Higgins is doubtful for the Bengals. Each player leads their respective team in targets, opening up plenty of opportunities on both sides.
For the Steelers, Chase Claypool stands out as the biggest beneficiary. He’s averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per opportunity over the past year, and he could approach double-digit targets on Sunday. He’s seen at least eight targets in nine career games, and he’s responded with an average of 14.91 FanDuel points per game. In four games with at least 10 targets, he’s increased his production to 21.73 fantasy points.
Claypool is also one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd should both benefit from the absence of Higgins, but Chase is the preferred fantasy target. He’s scored a touchdown of at least 40 yards in both games this season, and he’s absolutely dominated in terms of air yards. He’s racked up more than 40.5% of the Bengals’ air yards this season, which is easily the top mark on the team. If he can add a bit more volume to his elite downfield production, Chase has a chance for a monster game.
The matchup vs. the Steelers is definitely scary, but the team will be without their top two pass rushers in this contest. That should make it a bit friendlier for fantasy purposes.
Quick Hits
Kupp isn’t the only viable wide receiver for the Rams in this matchup. Robert Woods should also garner plenty of rostership on DraftKings, while Van Jefferson is an interesting value option. Billy Ward highlights both players in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
The Ravens made stopping Tyreek Hill their top priority last week, and they successfully limited him to just three catches for 14 yards. That should keep his rostership in check this week vs. the Chargers, which is always appealing for Hill. He has the ability to blow up a slate like few others at the receiver position.
Calvin Ridley has been slightly disappointing to start the year, but he has racked up 18 targets through his first two weeks. He could see an even larger target share with Russell Gage sidelined, and his price has decreased by -$900 on DraftKings since the start of the year. That gives him some buy-low appeal.
It’s not a particularly strong week for value receivers. If you do need some savings, Darnell Mooney has some appeal at $4,300 on DraftKings. He was one of Fields’ favorite targets last week, racking up six receptions for 66 yards on eight targets.
Tight End
Stud
If the first two weeks are any indication, T.J. Hockenson is poised for a monster season. He’s scored a touchdown in each of his first two games, and he’s racked up 19 total targets over that time frame. He leads the Lions in a variety of traditional and advanced metrics, and he could be busy once again vs. the Ravens.
Fantasy managers also benefit from the fact that Hockenson played on Monday night last week. The prices for DraftKings and FanDuel were set before that contest, which means Hockenson did not have a chance to have his salary adjusted. This will likely be our last chance to roster him at $5,200 on DraftKings and $6,300 on FanDuel, so let’s take advantage while we still can.
Value
Tyler Higbee was a popular play last week, but he busted with just one catch for seven yards. That said, all the things that made him a good play last week still hold true in Week 3. He’s played on a perfect 100% of the Rams’ offensive snaps this season, and he’s also run a route on more than 80% of the team’s passing plays. That’s an excellent mark.
He saw seven targets in Week 1, so he obviously has the potential for a bigger performance vs. the Buccaneers. The Bucs also rank just 22nd in DVOA vs. the TE position so far this season.
Quick Hits
Paying up for Travis Kelce could be a bit contrarian this week. There aren’t many strong value options on the slate, so it’s tough to be tough to spend more than $8,000 on a tight end. Kelce obviously has the highest ceiling at the position, so utilizing him in a contrarian build has plenty of merit in tournaments.
Gerald Everett owns one of the top Bargain Ratings at the position on DraftKings, and Billy Ward highlights his appeal in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Finally, the Kyle Pitts breakout week is coming. I’m not sure if it’s coming this week, but it is going to happen eventually. He’s racked up 14 targets through his first two games, which is the fourth-highest mark at the position. He also ranks third in routes run among tight ends, including eighth in route runs from the slot. He’s basically a receiver masquerading in a tight end’s body, so continue to fire him up in tournaments.
Roster Construction
This is the toughest week of the early season from a cash game perspective. There just aren’t many value options that you can feel comfortable with plugging into your lineups.
Edwards-Helaire is definitely one of them at $4,800, and I also really like Jones at $5,800 at quarterback. If you also go with a cheap defense – the Bengals and Titans are expected to be the most popular this week – it leaves you with approximately $6,200 per player for your remaining six roster spots.
Kupp is a priority for me at $6,800, as is Hockenson at $5,200. Both players are just criminally underpriced given their involvement early in the season. If you also want to jam in Henry, that leaves around $5,500 for your final two receivers and flex play. That isn’t ideal, but it’s doable.
I don’t normally consider playing multiple tight ends, but it is a bit more appealing than usual on this slate. For example, if Higbee was listed as a wide receiver instead of a tight end, he would easily grade out as the best value wide receiver. His $4,000 salary is the same as guys like Freddie Swain and Hunter Renfrow, and Higbee clearly has more appeal than those guys.
I would never consider using dual tight ends in a tournament lineup – those players don’t carry enough ceiling – but it could solve the value problem in cash games.
One of the best ways to identify tournament plays is with the Leverage Rating in our NFL Models. It compares ceiling projection and projected ownership, which allows you to identify players who are being overlooked by the rest of the field. Henry had one of the top Leverage Ratings last week, and we all know how that turned out.
Some of my favorite leverage plays this week are Kelce, Claypool, and Chubb, but Ryan Hodge, Justin Bailey, and Mike Randle do an excellent job of breaking down others in their content. Make sure to check out the Concise Convictions, Small-Field GPP Strategy, and Top Stacks for more viable tournament plays.
Good luck this week!
