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NFL Week 3 Fantasy WR Breakdown: Nelson Agholor in Cash Games?

The Week 3 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Sept. 22, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are seven wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Amari Cooper: $7,500 DraftKings; $7,700 FanDuel
  • Julio Jones: $7,300 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel
  • Keenan Allen: $7,000 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel
  • Adam Thielen: $6,700 DraftKings; $7,000 FanDuel
  • Emmanuel Sanders: $4,800 DraftKings; $5,700 FanDuel
  • D.K. Metcalf: $4,700 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • Nelson Agholor: $3,600 DraftKings; $4,800 FanDuel

Amari Cooper: Dallas Cowboys (-21.5) vs. Miami Dolphins, 47 Over/Under

Cooper entered the league as a top-tier prospect, and the promise he flashed with the Raiders has been realized with the Cowboys since he joined the team last year in their Week 8 bye.

In his 13 games with the Cowboys (including playoffs), Amari has been transcendent (per the FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Fantasy production: 15.1 FanDuel points, +5.53 Plus/Minus, 61.5% Consistency Rating
  • Football production: 8.3 targets, 5.8 receptions, 80.5 yards receiving, 0.69 touchdowns receiving

And now, under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, Cooper gets the benefit of playing in a receiver-friendly scheme that inventively and aggressively attacks defensive vulnerabilities. The season is young, but so far it has been good to Amari.

  • Week 1 (vs. Giants): 19.6 FanDuel points, 6-106-1 receiving on nine targets
  • Week 2 (at Redskins): 12.4 FanDuel points, 4-44-1 receiving on five targets

Amari is in an intriguing situation: He has a great matchup against the Dolphins, who are in full-on tank mode.

In Weeks 1-2, the Dolphins allowed an NFL-record 102 points. Gone from last year’s defensive line are edge defenders Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn and tackle Akeem Spence. And just this past week, they traded away 2018 first-round do-it-all defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick.

The Cowboys have a slate-high 34.5-point implied Vegas total, and the Dolphins are dead last in the league with a 109.1% pass-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). If the Cowboys want to pass against them, they will doubtlessly be able to do so.

But Cooper is risky for cash games: If the Cowboys get out to a big lead, they might choose to lean on their ground game, in which case Amari could be pushed to the side with a run-heavy game script.

On top of that, it’s likely that Dolphins No. 1 cornerback Xavien Howard will shadow Cooper, and Howard held Cooper to just eight yards and one reception on three targets when they faced each other last year.

But that was in Week 3, when Cooper was with the Raiders. As competent as Howard is, I have no doubt that the Cowboys can scheme Amari open by moving him around the formation — Howard historically doesn’t follow receivers into the slot — and it’s likely that Amari will win his one-on-one matchups with Howard anyway. The extent to which Howard is a shutdown corner has probably been overstated: He’s still yet to have a coverage grade of 80.0 (per Pro Football Focus).

And even if the Cowboys don’t throw a lot, it’s possible that Cooper will have a higher target share than usual since emerging wide receiver Michael Gallup (knee) is out for 2-4 weeks.

Here’s the biggest thing going for Cooper: He’s a home favorite, and with the Cowboys he has exhibited extreme splits.

Here’s what those numbers look like in terms of on-field production on a per-game basis.

  • At home (seven games): 8.7 targets, 6.9 receptions, 109.0 yards, 1.00 touchdown
  • On road (six games): 7.8 targets, 4.7 receptions, 47.2 yards, 0.33 touchdowns
  • As favorite (seven games): 8.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, 104.4 yards, 1.14 touchdowns
  • As dog (six games): 8.3 targets, 5.3 receptions, 52.5 yards, 0.17 touchdowns

While it would be foolhardy to expect Cooper to go off every time he’s at home or a favorite, these splits make sense within the context of the Cowboys: Throughout his career, quarterback Dak Prescott has also had significant splits, performing his absolute best as a home favorite.

And so Amari has been his best as a home favorite, sporting a gaudy +10.62 FanDuel Plus/Minus to go along with his 8.8 targets, 6.7 receptions, 114.5 yards and 1.17 touchdowns.

Again, Cooper is probably too risky for cash games, but he warrants tournament exposure, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating and is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan and Koerner Models.

Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts, 47 O/U

Last year, Julio led the league with 1,677 yards receiving. In fact, he’s progressively led the league in receiving over the past five years.

  • 2017-18: 3,121 yards
  • 2016-18: 4,530 yards
  • 2015-18: 6,401 yards
  • 2014-18: 7,994 yards

His dominance is now so routine that it’s almost dumbfoundingly boring.

#NeverJulio Twitter likes to point out that he has been a deficient touchdown producer for years. That’s true, but here’s the thing.

  1. Julio still averaged 6.2 touchdowns per year for the 2014-18 seasons. For a guy who doesn’t score, that’s a respectable number of touchdowns.
  2. Julio doesn’t need to score touchdowns to be one of the best receivers in any given slate.

Since morphing into his top-shelf self in 2014, he’s managed to play as the No. 3 fantasy wide receiver, averaging 21.2 DraftKings points despite his lackadaisical scoring. He’s the all-time NFL leader with 96.2 receiving yards per game. Even when he doesn’t score, Jones is good enough to have a top-five week at the position.

And in his 28 regular-season games with a touchdown since 2014, he’s rocked out with an obscene 28.3 points per game in point-per-reception scoring (per the RotoViz Game Splits app).

Perhaps no stat more clearly highlights his superiority than yards per route run (per PFF).

  • 2018: 2.93 (1st)
  • 2017: 3.08 (1st)
  • 2016: 3.12 (1st)
  • 2015: 3.04 (1st)
  • 2014: 2.72 (4th)
  • 2013: 2.75 (1st)

Perhaps most importantly, Julio is finally finding the end zone this year.

  • Week 1 (at Vikings): 15.1 DraftKings points, 6-31-1 receiving on 11 targets
  • Week 2 (vs. Eagles): 30.6 DraftKings points, 5-106-2 receiving on 10 targets

Julio almost always warrants tournament exposure because of his ability to dominate any slate.

In cash games, though, I’ll probably avoid Julio this week.

Julio has never had notable home/away splits, so it’s ostensibly not a big deal for him to be on the road, but quarterback Matt Ryan has been the most location-influenced passer in the league since at least 2016 (per Sharp Football Stats).

  • Passing Success Rate: 57% – home, 51% – away
  • Yards per Attempt: 8.7 – home, 7.9 – away
  • Passer Rating: 109.7 – home, 102.0 – away

It helps that Lucas Oil Stadium is covered: Throughout his career, Ryan has been better in a dome than outdoors, with 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt inside vs. 7.2 outside. So that’s good for Julio.

But the matchup with the Colts isn’t great: Since defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus joined the team last year, the Colts have become a much tougher team in pass defense. In 2018, the Colts allowed the fewest DraftKings points in the league to opposing wide receivers with just 28.2 per game. And this year that number has held steady at 28.3.

Again, Julio should be considered in guaranteed prize pools: He has strong favorite/underdog splits over the past half decade, and the Falcons are a dog in Week 3.

  • Underdog (31 games): 25.0 DraftKings points, +4.98 Plus/Minus, 71.0% Consistency Rating
  • Favorite (53 games): 19.0 DraftKings points, -1.03 Plus/Minus, 45.3% Consistency Rating

On the road with this matchup, Julio is risky for cash games, but he’ll be popular in tournaments.

Julio is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.

Keenan-Allen

Photo Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen: Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Houston Texans, 48.5 O/U

I’m a longtime Allen skeptic, but he’s been strong to start the year.

  • Week 1 (vs. Colts): 29.3 DraftKings points, 8-123-1 receiving on 10 targets
  • Week 2 (at Lions): 17.8 DraftKings points, 8-98-0 receiving on 15 targets

Ranking No. 2 at the position with 25 targets and No. 5 with 23.4 DraftKings points per game, Keenan is #krushing.

And since 2015, only five wide receivers have more than Keenan’s 18.9 DraftKings points per game (including playoffs, not counting rookies).

  • Antonio Brown: 23.5
  • Julio Jones: 21.2
  • Odell Beckham Jr.: 20.9
  • DeAndre Hopkins: 19.6
  • Michael Thomas: 19.0

Allen has been at the top of the tier right underneath the league’s highest-tier wide receivers for most of the past half decade.

He’s unimpeachable — but I’m going to impeach him, at least a little.

What I’ve disliked about Allen for years is that he’s a volume-based player. He’s not highly efficient with his opportunities, so if his volume slips — as it did last season — he goes from being a mid-tier WR1 to a low-tier WR2 because he has no ceiling.

Allen’s primary problem is that he’s more of a technician and less of an athlete — and that’s why he ran 57.2% of his routes from the slot in 2018 — but he’s paired with a quarterback in Philip Rivers who likes to throw the ball downfield and let his pass-catchers make plays. With wide receivers Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams, Rivers had two dynamic and deep-winning playmakers last year, and they compared favorably to Allen.

  • Allen (2018): 270.1 DraftKings points, 136 targets, 97 receptions, 1,196 receiving yards, 1,183 air yards, eight end-zone targets, six receiving touchdowns, 9-75-0 rushing, 1.86 DraftKings points per opportunity
  • Combined Williamses (2018): 324.0 DraftKings points, 131 targets, 84 receptions, 1,317 receiving yards, 1,753 air yards, 19 end-zone targets, 15 receiving touchdowns, 9-43-1 rushing, 2.31 DraftKings points per opportunity

On fewer targets and receptions, the Williamses outperformed Allen in every way imaginable. When Allen’s low 8.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT) is taken into account, he might have been the least explosive receiver Rivers regularly targeted last year — and that includes the dusty remains of tight end Antonio Gates.

But none of that is likely to matter for Week 3. Tyrell the Gazelle is now with the Raiders, and tight end Hunter Henry (knee) is out.

With less competition for targets, Allen has dominated the Chargers passing game. Through two weeks, he ranks No. 1 in the league with a 0.36 target share and 0.55 market share of air yards (per AirYards.com).

This year, Allen has lined up all over the formation, so he’ll get his shot at each of the Texans cornerbacks, who are all exploitable. Outside corners Lonnie Johnson Jr. and Johnathan Joseph have PFF coverage grades of 50.8 and 61.1, and Bradley Roby just last week was moved to the slot, where he has almost never played.

Whoever he lines up against in Week 3, Keenan can beat him.

The Chargers are favored at home, and that situation has historically suited Allen, who has had notable splits since the team moved to Los Angeles in 2017 (including playoffs).

  • At home (16 games): 22.1 DraftKings points, +5.93 Plus/Minus, 68.8% Consistency Rating
  • On road (20 games): 15.9 DraftKings points, -0.16 Plus/Minus, 40.0% Consistency Rating
  • As favorite (25 games): 21.5 DraftKings points, +5.19 Plus/Minus, 64.0% Consistency Rating
  • As dog (12 games): 12.3 DraftKings points, -3.49 Plus/Minus, 25.0% Consistency Rating

As a home favorite, Allen has averaged 22.9 DraftKings points with an unholy +6.66 Plus/Minus across 15 games.

With his locked-in target volume, advantageous spot and exploitable matchup, Allen is viable in cash games and should also be popular in tournaments.

Allen is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings.

Adam Thielen: Minnesota Vikings (-9) vs. Oakland Raiders, 43.5 O/U

For much of the 2018 season, Thielen was a straight-up baller. Through the first 14 weeks of the season, he was a top-five fantasy receiver and reliable weekly producer.

  • Fantasy production (13 games): 17.8 FanDuel points, +4.90 Plus/Minus, 69.2% Consistency Rating
  • Football production (13 games): 11 targets, 7.9 receptions, 95.1 yards receiving, 0.69 touchdowns receiving

But after Week 14, offensive coordinator John DeFilippo was fired, primarily because the Vikings to that point were the second-most pass-heavy team in the league with a 67.0% pass-play rate, and head coach Mike Zimmer wanted the team to run more.

And run they have. In the five games since DeFilippo’s firing (Weeks 15-17 last year, Weeks 1-2 this year), the Vikings have dedicated themselves to their ground attack. Under interim-turned-full-time coordinator Kevin Stefanski and rushing guru Gary Kubiak, who was hired in the offseason as an offensive assistant, the Vikings have a robust 52.5% run rate.

Under DeFilippo, the Vikings had 42.8 pass plays per game. Under Stefanski, that number has dropped to 26.8.

With the shift in offensive philosophy, Thielen has been materially harmed.

  • Fantasy production (five games): 8.14 FanDuel points, -2.98 Plus/Minus, 20% Consistency Rating
  • Football production (five games): 4.6 targets, 3.6 receptions, 51 yards receiving, 0.2 touchdowns receiving

To make the extent of the drop-off clear, here’s the difference between Thielen with DeFilippo and Thielen with Stefanski.

The sample with Stefanski is small, but it is suggestive. Stuck in a run-first offense, Thielen’s ability to produce has been drastically reduced.

This week, though, Thielen has two factors in his favor.

First is his ownership rate. Everyone knows that Thielen has disappointed in his new circumstances, so he will be lightly rostered in tournaments, but he’s still a talented player, and it’s possible the GPP market will be overselling him this weekend.

And there’s also his matchup. The Raiders are exploitable through the air. In 2018, the Raiders defense ranked dead last in the league with a 28.3% pass DVOA, and it hasn’t been significantly improved this offseason.

In fact, now the Raiders have something of a receiver-flowing funnel defense, since they have toughened up a little against the run. For 2019, the Raiders defense is No. 4 with a -42.4% run DVOA and No. 27 with a 48.0% pass DVOA.

Through two weeks, the Raiders have allowed opposing wide receivers to average 55.5 DraftKings points per game — the league’s fourth-highest mark. Not one Raiders cornerback has a PFF coverage grade of even 60.0.

Thielen doesn’t play in the slot as much as he did last year, but he has still run 33.3% of his routes from the slot in 2019, and Raiders slot cornerback Lamarcus Joyner — a former safety — has given up a 14-119-0 receiving line on 15 targets over the past two weeks.

Thielen should be avoided in cash games, but he’s cheap enough to entice for tournaments on FanDuel, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating and a 94% Leverage Score thanks to his low ownership and high ceiling projections.

Thielen is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel.

Broncos-Cardinals-DFS-Thursday-Night-Showdown-DraftKings-FanDuel

Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Emmanuel Sanders

Emmanuel Sanders: Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers, 43 O/U

Last year, Sanders was in the midst of his best post-Peyton Manning-era campaign when a Week 14 practice injury ended his season.

  • Fantasy production (12 games): 17.3 DraftKings points, +3.65 Plus/Minus, 58.3% Consistency Rating
  • Football production (12 games): 71-868-4 receiving on 98 targets, 4-53-1 rushing, 28-yard touchdown passing

And it wasn’t just any injury: It was a torn Achilles — in December. Not only was 2018 over: The 2019 season also seemed to be in jeopardy.

But amazingly, Sanders has seemingly made a full recovery, and through two weeks he leads the Broncos with 20 targets, 16 receptions, 184 yards receiving, 60 yards after the catch and two touchdowns. He’s just outside the top 10 at the position with his 20 targets, and he’s in the top five with 24.2 DraftKings points per game.

Despite his injury, despite having to form a connection with new (and uninspiring) quarterback Joe Flacco and despite playing alongside young, up-and-coming wide receivers Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton, the 32-year-old Sanders has returned to form.

At a glance, he’s not in a good spot: The Packers have held opposing wide receivers to just 28.1 DraftKings points per game — the fourth-lowest total this year. But the Packers in Weeks 1-2 played the Bears and Vikings, so we shouldn’t put too much stock into their year-to-date performance: The Bears offense is struggling with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, and the Vikings offense is built around running back Dalvin Cook.

The Packers have a promising group of corners in Jaire Alexander, Kevin King and Tramon Williams, but last year their defense was No. 28 with a 20.1% pass DVOA. Sanders is skilled enough as a route runner and dynamic enough as an athlete — even with his recovering Achilles — to put up numbers against that trio of defenders.

And while it might seem like a negative for the Broncos to be significant dogs, the fact is that Sanders has had significant splits since Manning retired in 2016.

  • As dog (17 games): 16.4 DraftKings points, +3.75 Plus/Minus, 47.1% Consistency Rating
  • As favorite (26 games): 12.9 DraftKings points, +0.12 Plus/Minus, 42.3% Consistency Rating

I’ll probably avoid Sanders in cash games because I want more safety than a Flacco-dependent player can provide, but he’s in play for guaranteed prize pools, especially on DraftKings, where he’s second at the position with eight Pro Trends and is the top wide receiver in the Bales Model.

D.K. Metcalf: Seattle Seahawks (-4) vs. New Orleans Saints, 45 O/U

The rookie Metcalf was the No. 1 DraftKings wide receiver in the Freedman Model last week, and he’s at the top of the model again this week. He is 100% absolutely not a cash-game play, but I like him a lot as a speculative GPP option.

In my dynasty rookie rankings, I noted his volatile upside.

In college he struggled to stay healthy: In only one of his three years at Ole Miss did he play an entire season.

Perhaps most importantly, Metcalf exhibited little nuance as a player: He lined up almost exclusively as the X receiver and ran a very limited route tree consisting almost entirely of flies, curls and fades. In the NFL, it’s unlikely that he will ever be an effective receiver out of the slot because he lacks the agility and route-running ability to operate in the middle of the field.

In other words, he’s basically a one-dimensional player.

But within the confines of that one dimension, Metcalf can be incredibly dominant. He has unbelievable playmaking potential as a downfield threat: His speed allows him to get past defenders, and his size gives him an edge on contested catches. And before a neck injury cut his season short, he was on pace for a 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown performance in 2018.

A classic boom-or-bust player, Metcalf might have the widest range of professional outcomes of any receiver in this class.

Even though he’s in a run-first offense, Metcalf through two weeks has been as good on a per-game basis as advertised.

  • Fantasy production: 14 DraftKings points, +6.25 Plus/Minus, 100% Consistency Rating
  • Football production: 7-150-1 receiving on 13 targets

Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown three end-zone targets this season: Two of them have been to Metcalf.

While 7.5 targets per game isn’t a lot, Metcalf has leveraged his 0.24 target share into an elite 0.48 market share of air yards — the fifth-highest mark in the league. As the downfield threat in the offense, Metcalf had an aggressive aDOT of 16.7 yards. All it takes is a few well-placed passes for Metcalf to have a big game.

I like his matchup against the Saints, who have opened the season with a grisly 49.9 PFF coverage grade and allowed opposing teams to score 27.5 points per game.

Metcalf is likely to draw shadow coverage from No. 1 corner Marshon Lattimore, whose play has recently slipped. This year, Lattimore has allowed a 10-189-2 receiving line on 14 targets in his coverage. Even though it’s theoretically not ideal for Metcalf if Lattimore tails him, in reality it could be very good: Metcalf has the ability to beat Lattimore in one-on-one matchups.

  • D.K. Metcalf: 6-foot-3, 228 pounds, 4.33-second 40-yard dash
  • Marshon Lattimore: 6-foot, 193 pounds, 4.36-second 40-yard dash

Metcalf is faster than Lattimore and can easily out-muscle him when fighting for position on contested catches.

Under head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks at home are 46-30-3 against the spread (including playoffs), good for an A-graded 18.0% return on investment (per Bet Labs). They have one of the best home-field advantages in the league.

At home in this matchup with his downfield play-making role, Metcalf has GPP-altering upside.

Nelson Agholor: Philadelphia Eagles (-6) vs. Detroit Lions, 45.5 O/U

In Week 2, the Eagles played on Sunday Night Football, and by the time the despondence of their receiver situation was obvious, Week 3 salaries had already been set. As a result, in the absence of top wide receivers Alshon Jeffery (calf) and DeSean Jackson (groin), Agholor is likely to function as the No. 1 receiver against the Lions and be something of a chalk lock in cash games.

Last week, with D-Jax out and Alshon playing just six snaps, Agholor led the Eagles with eight receptions, 107 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets.

In the 13 games Carson Wentz played in his 2017 breakout campaign, Agholor was fairly comparable to Alshon.

  • Alshon Jeffery (13 games): 13.8 DraftKings points, 4.0 receptions, 56.3 yards, 0.62 touchdowns
  • Nelson Agholor (13 games): 12.7 DraftKings points, 3.7 receptions, 51.0 yards, 0.54 touchdowns

And that was with Nellie and ‘Shon sharing the field together. For Week 3, Agholor gets the benefit of playing without the target hog, and his three previous games without Alshon — all at the beginning of the 2018 season — are encouraging.

  • Fantasy production: 14.3 DraftKings points, +1.43 Plus/Minus, 66.7% Consistency Rating
  • Football production: 20-145-1 on 27 targets, 2-18-0 rushing, 16-yard pass completion

Agholor has run 81.5% of his routes from the slot this year, so he’s likely to face Lions cornerback Justin Coleman, who has been targeted a slot-high 16 times in two weeks. Nelson has a good chance to see double-digit targets for the second game in a row.

For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Agholor leads the position with his Projected Plus/Minus values and is the No. 1 receiver in the Raybon Model.

He’s also the top DraftKings receiver in the Koerner Model.

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans ($7,800 DK, $8,900 FD): Nuk has a tough matchup with shadow cornerback Casey Hayward Jr., but he’s No. 3 in the league with 306 air yards and he leads the position with his median projections in our Models.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($7,600 DK, $8,200 FD): Adams has position-high ceiling and floor projections on FanDuel as well as a 100% Leverage Score, and the Broncos defense is No. 26 with a 42.0% pass DVOA.

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints ($7,400 DK, $8,000 FD): Thomas entered the year with an all-time NFL-high 321 receptions through his first three seasons, in each of Weeks 1-2 he had 13 targets and he has a position-high 98% Leverage Score on DraftKings.

Antonio Brown, New England Patriots ($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD): AB played just 24 snaps last week, but he was targeted on eight of his 14 routes, three of his targets were in the end zone and he had an elite 4.0 yards per route run.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,900 DK, $7,600 FD): His Holiness leads the Bucs with 15 targets, 11 receptions, 174 yards receiving, 62 yards after the catch and two touchdowns, and he’s facing a Giants defense that has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to wide receivers with 55.7 per game.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,900 DK, $7,500 FD): JuJu disappointed in Weeks 1-2, but he’s still on pace for 1,296 yards, he’s gotten eight targets in each game, there’s a non-zero chance that quarterback Mason Rudolph is better than Ben Roethlisberger at this point in their careers and the 49ers defense was No. 32 in the league last year with a horrid 37.5 PFF coverage grade.

Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,800 DK, $7,100 FD): Watkins underwhelmed in Week 2 with a 6-49-0 receiving line while Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman went off, but he easily led the team with 13 targets, he has an NFL-high 413 combined air yards and yards after the catch and the Chiefs-Ravens game has a slate-high over/under of 52 points.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($6,600 DK, $7,000 FD): Golladay leads the Lions with 19 targets, 12 receptions, 159 yards receiving, 295 air yards and two touchdowns, the favored Eagles have allowed an NFL-high 58.1 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers and Golladay since last season has averaged 17.6 DraftKings points with a +5.08 Plus/Minus in his 11 games as an underdog.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,600 DK, $7,100 FD): Evans has played behind Godwin to open the year, but he’s one of just three wide receivers in NFL history to open his career with five straight 1,000-yard seasons, he has a 0.37 share of air yards on a 0.21 target share and he had a 6-120-1 receiving performance on seven targets against the Giants last year.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,500 DK, $6,600 FD): Boyd has a tough matchup against the Bills, but he is top-10 with 21 targets, and he leads all receivers with his DraftKings floor projection.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts ($6,400 DK, $7,400 FD): Hilton has maintained his value this year with a 12-130-3 receiving line, and the Colts are laying points at home, where Hilton has averaged 19.6 DraftKings points in his 29 games as a favorite since his 2014 breakout season.

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks ($6,200 DK, $6,600 FD): Lockett leads the Seahawks with 14 targets and 11 receptions, and he’ll run most of his routes against Saints slot corner P.J. Williams, who is yet to have a PFF coverage grade of even 70.0 in any of his four NFL seasons.

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens ($5,900 DK, $6,100 FD): Hollywood leads all qualified receivers with 5.18 yards per route, he has a team-high 18 targets, 233 yards receiving, 249 air yards and 113 yards after the catch and he should be able to race by the slow Bashaud Breeland (4.62-second 40-yard dash).

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers ($5,900 DK, $6,500 FD): Moore leads the Panthers with 24 targets, 16 receptions and 165 yards receiving, and the Cardinals are without starting cornerbacks Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (leg, injured reserve).

John Brown, Buffalo Bills ($5,500 DK, $5,900 FD): The Abolitionist has a team-high 18 targets, 14 receptions, 195 yards receiving, 243 air yards and 53 yards after the catch, and the Bengals rank No. 30 with their 33.2 PFF coverage grade.

John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,100 DK, $6,700 FD): Ross leads the NFL with 31 DraftKings points per game, he trails only Watkins with his 383 combined air yards and yards after the catch, and as good as Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White is, Ross should be able to get by him for a few deep targets with his record-breaking speed (4.22-second 40-yard dash).

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($5,100 DK, $5,900 FD): The aged Fitz leads the Cardinals with 24 targets, 13 receptions, 217 yards receiving and 273 air yards, and Panthers slot corner Javien Elliott has a career 89.3% catch rate allowed.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($4,900 DK, $6,000 FD): Fuller has a 0.33 air yard market share on a 0.17 target share, Chargers cornerback Brandon Facyson has a poor 42.2 PFF coverage grade and Fuller has averaged 16.5 DraftKings points across his 13 games with quarterback Deshaun Watson.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Philadelphia Eagles ($3,500 DK, $4,600 FD): Jaws has a good combination of size (6-foot-2, 223 pounds) and athleticism (4.49-second 40-yard dash), he was a productive and dominant contested-catch receiver in college, he played 93% of the snaps in Week 2 and he will slide into the “Alshon role” against the Lions.

James Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,500 DK, $5,200 FD): Washington seems likely to replace the drop-prone Donte Moncrief on the depth chart, he gets the “Shower Narrative” benefit of playing with his college teammate in quarterback Mason Rudolph and the 49ers have a poor secondary.

Devin Smith, Dallas Cowboys ($3,400 DK, $5,200 FD): Smith is expected to start in place of the injured Michael Gallup (knee), he was targeted last week on three of his nine routes, he flashed with 74 yards and a touchdown and Dolphins cornerback Eric Rowe has allowed a 10-136-2 receiving line on the 12 targets in his coverage this year.

Damiere Byrd, Arizona Cardinals ($3,000 DK, $5,000 FD): Byrd has 14 targets and an 89.7% snap rate, and there could be a lot of points in the Cardinals-Panthers game, as both teams are top-two in pace of play.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Nelson Agholor
Photo credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

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The Week 3 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Sept. 22, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are seven wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Amari Cooper: $7,500 DraftKings; $7,700 FanDuel
  • Julio Jones: $7,300 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel
  • Keenan Allen: $7,000 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel
  • Adam Thielen: $6,700 DraftKings; $7,000 FanDuel
  • Emmanuel Sanders: $4,800 DraftKings; $5,700 FanDuel
  • D.K. Metcalf: $4,700 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • Nelson Agholor: $3,600 DraftKings; $4,800 FanDuel

Amari Cooper: Dallas Cowboys (-21.5) vs. Miami Dolphins, 47 Over/Under

Cooper entered the league as a top-tier prospect, and the promise he flashed with the Raiders has been realized with the Cowboys since he joined the team last year in their Week 8 bye.

In his 13 games with the Cowboys (including playoffs), Amari has been transcendent (per the FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Fantasy production: 15.1 FanDuel points, +5.53 Plus/Minus, 61.5% Consistency Rating
  • Football production: 8.3 targets, 5.8 receptions, 80.5 yards receiving, 0.69 touchdowns receiving

And now, under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, Cooper gets the benefit of playing in a receiver-friendly scheme that inventively and aggressively attacks defensive vulnerabilities. The season is young, but so far it has been good to Amari.

  • Week 1 (vs. Giants): 19.6 FanDuel points, 6-106-1 receiving on nine targets
  • Week 2 (at Redskins): 12.4 FanDuel points, 4-44-1 receiving on five targets

Amari is in an intriguing situation: He has a great matchup against the Dolphins, who are in full-on tank mode.

In Weeks 1-2, the Dolphins allowed an NFL-record 102 points. Gone from last year’s defensive line are edge defenders Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn and tackle Akeem Spence. And just this past week, they traded away 2018 first-round do-it-all defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick.

The Cowboys have a slate-high 34.5-point implied Vegas total, and the Dolphins are dead last in the league with a 109.1% pass-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). If the Cowboys want to pass against them, they will doubtlessly be able to do so.

But Cooper is risky for cash games: If the Cowboys get out to a big lead, they might choose to lean on their ground game, in which case Amari could be pushed to the side with a run-heavy game script.

On top of that, it’s likely that Dolphins No. 1 cornerback Xavien Howard will shadow Cooper, and Howard held Cooper to just eight yards and one reception on three targets when they faced each other last year.

But that was in Week 3, when Cooper was with the Raiders. As competent as Howard is, I have no doubt that the Cowboys can scheme Amari open by moving him around the formation — Howard historically doesn’t follow receivers into the slot — and it’s likely that Amari will win his one-on-one matchups with Howard anyway. The extent to which Howard is a shutdown corner has probably been overstated: He’s still yet to have a coverage grade of 80.0 (per Pro Football Focus).

And even if the Cowboys don’t throw a lot, it’s possible that Cooper will have a higher target share than usual since emerging wide receiver Michael Gallup (knee) is out for 2-4 weeks.

Here’s the biggest thing going for Cooper: He’s a home favorite, and with the Cowboys he has exhibited extreme splits.

Here’s what those numbers look like in terms of on-field production on a per-game basis.

  • At home (seven games): 8.7 targets, 6.9 receptions, 109.0 yards, 1.00 touchdown
  • On road (six games): 7.8 targets, 4.7 receptions, 47.2 yards, 0.33 touchdowns
  • As favorite (seven games): 8.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, 104.4 yards, 1.14 touchdowns
  • As dog (six games): 8.3 targets, 5.3 receptions, 52.5 yards, 0.17 touchdowns

While it would be foolhardy to expect Cooper to go off every time he’s at home or a favorite, these splits make sense within the context of the Cowboys: Throughout his career, quarterback Dak Prescott has also had significant splits, performing his absolute best as a home favorite.

And so Amari has been his best as a home favorite, sporting a gaudy +10.62 FanDuel Plus/Minus to go along with his 8.8 targets, 6.7 receptions, 114.5 yards and 1.17 touchdowns.

Again, Cooper is probably too risky for cash games, but he warrants tournament exposure, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating and is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan and Koerner Models.

Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts, 47 O/U

Last year, Julio led the league with 1,677 yards receiving. In fact, he’s progressively led the league in receiving over the past five years.

  • 2017-18: 3,121 yards
  • 2016-18: 4,530 yards
  • 2015-18: 6,401 yards
  • 2014-18: 7,994 yards

His dominance is now so routine that it’s almost dumbfoundingly boring.

#NeverJulio Twitter likes to point out that he has been a deficient touchdown producer for years. That’s true, but here’s the thing.

  1. Julio still averaged 6.2 touchdowns per year for the 2014-18 seasons. For a guy who doesn’t score, that’s a respectable number of touchdowns.
  2. Julio doesn’t need to score touchdowns to be one of the best receivers in any given slate.

Since morphing into his top-shelf self in 2014, he’s managed to play as the No. 3 fantasy wide receiver, averaging 21.2 DraftKings points despite his lackadaisical scoring. He’s the all-time NFL leader with 96.2 receiving yards per game. Even when he doesn’t score, Jones is good enough to have a top-five week at the position.

And in his 28 regular-season games with a touchdown since 2014, he’s rocked out with an obscene 28.3 points per game in point-per-reception scoring (per the RotoViz Game Splits app).

Perhaps no stat more clearly highlights his superiority than yards per route run (per PFF).

  • 2018: 2.93 (1st)
  • 2017: 3.08 (1st)
  • 2016: 3.12 (1st)
  • 2015: 3.04 (1st)
  • 2014: 2.72 (4th)
  • 2013: 2.75 (1st)

Perhaps most importantly, Julio is finally finding the end zone this year.

  • Week 1 (at Vikings): 15.1 DraftKings points, 6-31-1 receiving on 11 targets
  • Week 2 (vs. Eagles): 30.6 DraftKings points, 5-106-2 receiving on 10 targets

Julio almost always warrants tournament exposure because of his ability to dominate any slate.

In cash games, though, I’ll probably avoid Julio this week.

Julio has never had notable home/away splits, so it’s ostensibly not a big deal for him to be on the road, but quarterback Matt Ryan has been the most location-influenced passer in the league since at least 2016 (per Sharp Football Stats).

  • Passing Success Rate: 57% – home, 51% – away
  • Yards per Attempt: 8.7 – home, 7.9 – away
  • Passer Rating: 109.7 – home, 102.0 – away

It helps that Lucas Oil Stadium is covered: Throughout his career, Ryan has been better in a dome than outdoors, with 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt inside vs. 7.2 outside. So that’s good for Julio.

But the matchup with the Colts isn’t great: Since defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus joined the team last year, the Colts have become a much tougher team in pass defense. In 2018, the Colts allowed the fewest DraftKings points in the league to opposing wide receivers with just 28.2 per game. And this year that number has held steady at 28.3.

Again, Julio should be considered in guaranteed prize pools: He has strong favorite/underdog splits over the past half decade, and the Falcons are a dog in Week 3.

  • Underdog (31 games): 25.0 DraftKings points, +4.98 Plus/Minus, 71.0% Consistency Rating
  • Favorite (53 games): 19.0 DraftKings points, -1.03 Plus/Minus, 45.3% Consistency Rating

On the road with this matchup, Julio is risky for cash games, but he’ll be popular in tournaments.

Julio is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.

Keenan-Allen

Photo Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen: Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Houston Texans, 48.5 O/U

I’m a longtime Allen skeptic, but he’s been strong to start the year.

  • Week 1 (vs. Colts): 29.3 DraftKings points, 8-123-1 receiving on 10 targets
  • Week 2 (at Lions): 17.8 DraftKings points, 8-98-0 receiving on 15 targets

Ranking No. 2 at the position with 25 targets and No. 5 with 23.4 DraftKings points per game, Keenan is #krushing.

And since 2015, only five wide receivers have more than Keenan’s 18.9 DraftKings points per game (including playoffs, not counting rookies).

  • Antonio Brown: 23.5
  • Julio Jones: 21.2
  • Odell Beckham Jr.: 20.9
  • DeAndre Hopkins: 19.6
  • Michael Thomas: 19.0

Allen has been at the top of the tier right underneath the league’s highest-tier wide receivers for most of the past half decade.

He’s unimpeachable — but I’m going to impeach him, at least a little.

What I’ve disliked about Allen for years is that he’s a volume-based player. He’s not highly efficient with his opportunities, so if his volume slips — as it did last season — he goes from being a mid-tier WR1 to a low-tier WR2 because he has no ceiling.

Allen’s primary problem is that he’s more of a technician and less of an athlete — and that’s why he ran 57.2% of his routes from the slot in 2018 — but he’s paired with a quarterback in Philip Rivers who likes to throw the ball downfield and let his pass-catchers make plays. With wide receivers Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams, Rivers had two dynamic and deep-winning playmakers last year, and they compared favorably to Allen.

  • Allen (2018): 270.1 DraftKings points, 136 targets, 97 receptions, 1,196 receiving yards, 1,183 air yards, eight end-zone targets, six receiving touchdowns, 9-75-0 rushing, 1.86 DraftKings points per opportunity
  • Combined Williamses (2018): 324.0 DraftKings points, 131 targets, 84 receptions, 1,317 receiving yards, 1,753 air yards, 19 end-zone targets, 15 receiving touchdowns, 9-43-1 rushing, 2.31 DraftKings points per opportunity

On fewer targets and receptions, the Williamses outperformed Allen in every way imaginable. When Allen’s low 8.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT) is taken into account, he might have been the least explosive receiver Rivers regularly targeted last year — and that includes the dusty remains of tight end Antonio Gates.

But none of that is likely to matter for Week 3. Tyrell the Gazelle is now with the Raiders, and tight end Hunter Henry (knee) is out.

With less competition for targets, Allen has dominated the Chargers passing game. Through two weeks, he ranks No. 1 in the league with a 0.36 target share and 0.55 market share of air yards (per AirYards.com).

This year, Allen has lined up all over the formation, so he’ll get his shot at each of the Texans cornerbacks, who are all exploitable. Outside corners Lonnie Johnson Jr. and Johnathan Joseph have PFF coverage grades of 50.8 and 61.1, and Bradley Roby just last week was moved to the slot, where he has almost never played.

Whoever he lines up against in Week 3, Keenan can beat him.

The Chargers are favored at home, and that situation has historically suited Allen, who has had notable splits since the team moved to Los Angeles in 2017 (including playoffs).

  • At home (16 games): 22.1 DraftKings points, +5.93 Plus/Minus, 68.8% Consistency Rating
  • On road (20 games): 15.9 DraftKings points, -0.16 Plus/Minus, 40.0% Consistency Rating
  • As favorite (25 games): 21.5 DraftKings points, +5.19 Plus/Minus, 64.0% Consistency Rating
  • As dog (12 games): 12.3 DraftKings points, -3.49 Plus/Minus, 25.0% Consistency Rating

As a home favorite, Allen has averaged 22.9 DraftKings points with an unholy +6.66 Plus/Minus across 15 games.

With his locked-in target volume, advantageous spot and exploitable matchup, Allen is viable in cash games and should also be popular in tournaments.

Allen is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings.

Adam Thielen: Minnesota Vikings (-9) vs. Oakland Raiders, 43.5 O/U

For much of the 2018 season, Thielen was a straight-up baller. Through the first 14 weeks of the season, he was a top-five fantasy receiver and reliable weekly producer.

  • Fantasy production (13 games): 17.8 FanDuel points, +4.90 Plus/Minus, 69.2% Consistency Rating
  • Football production (13 games): 11 targets, 7.9 receptions, 95.1 yards receiving, 0.69 touchdowns receiving

But after Week 14, offensive coordinator John DeFilippo was fired, primarily because the Vikings to that point were the second-most pass-heavy team in the league with a 67.0% pass-play rate, and head coach Mike Zimmer wanted the team to run more.

And run they have. In the five games since DeFilippo’s firing (Weeks 15-17 last year, Weeks 1-2 this year), the Vikings have dedicated themselves to their ground attack. Under interim-turned-full-time coordinator Kevin Stefanski and rushing guru Gary Kubiak, who was hired in the offseason as an offensive assistant, the Vikings have a robust 52.5% run rate.

Under DeFilippo, the Vikings had 42.8 pass plays per game. Under Stefanski, that number has dropped to 26.8.

With the shift in offensive philosophy, Thielen has been materially harmed.

  • Fantasy production (five games): 8.14 FanDuel points, -2.98 Plus/Minus, 20% Consistency Rating
  • Football production (five games): 4.6 targets, 3.6 receptions, 51 yards receiving, 0.2 touchdowns receiving

To make the extent of the drop-off clear, here’s the difference between Thielen with DeFilippo and Thielen with Stefanski.

The sample with Stefanski is small, but it is suggestive. Stuck in a run-first offense, Thielen’s ability to produce has been drastically reduced.

This week, though, Thielen has two factors in his favor.

First is his ownership rate. Everyone knows that Thielen has disappointed in his new circumstances, so he will be lightly rostered in tournaments, but he’s still a talented player, and it’s possible the GPP market will be overselling him this weekend.

And there’s also his matchup. The Raiders are exploitable through the air. In 2018, the Raiders defense ranked dead last in the league with a 28.3% pass DVOA, and it hasn’t been significantly improved this offseason.

In fact, now the Raiders have something of a receiver-flowing funnel defense, since they have toughened up a little against the run. For 2019, the Raiders defense is No. 4 with a -42.4% run DVOA and No. 27 with a 48.0% pass DVOA.

Through two weeks, the Raiders have allowed opposing wide receivers to average 55.5 DraftKings points per game — the league’s fourth-highest mark. Not one Raiders cornerback has a PFF coverage grade of even 60.0.

Thielen doesn’t play in the slot as much as he did last year, but he has still run 33.3% of his routes from the slot in 2019, and Raiders slot cornerback Lamarcus Joyner — a former safety — has given up a 14-119-0 receiving line on 15 targets over the past two weeks.

Thielen should be avoided in cash games, but he’s cheap enough to entice for tournaments on FanDuel, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating and a 94% Leverage Score thanks to his low ownership and high ceiling projections.

Thielen is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel.

Broncos-Cardinals-DFS-Thursday-Night-Showdown-DraftKings-FanDuel

Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Emmanuel Sanders

Emmanuel Sanders: Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers, 43 O/U

Last year, Sanders was in the midst of his best post-Peyton Manning-era campaign when a Week 14 practice injury ended his season.

  • Fantasy production (12 games): 17.3 DraftKings points, +3.65 Plus/Minus, 58.3% Consistency Rating
  • Football production (12 games): 71-868-4 receiving on 98 targets, 4-53-1 rushing, 28-yard touchdown passing

And it wasn’t just any injury: It was a torn Achilles — in December. Not only was 2018 over: The 2019 season also seemed to be in jeopardy.

But amazingly, Sanders has seemingly made a full recovery, and through two weeks he leads the Broncos with 20 targets, 16 receptions, 184 yards receiving, 60 yards after the catch and two touchdowns. He’s just outside the top 10 at the position with his 20 targets, and he’s in the top five with 24.2 DraftKings points per game.

Despite his injury, despite having to form a connection with new (and uninspiring) quarterback Joe Flacco and despite playing alongside young, up-and-coming wide receivers Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton, the 32-year-old Sanders has returned to form.

At a glance, he’s not in a good spot: The Packers have held opposing wide receivers to just 28.1 DraftKings points per game — the fourth-lowest total this year. But the Packers in Weeks 1-2 played the Bears and Vikings, so we shouldn’t put too much stock into their year-to-date performance: The Bears offense is struggling with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, and the Vikings offense is built around running back Dalvin Cook.

The Packers have a promising group of corners in Jaire Alexander, Kevin King and Tramon Williams, but last year their defense was No. 28 with a 20.1% pass DVOA. Sanders is skilled enough as a route runner and dynamic enough as an athlete — even with his recovering Achilles — to put up numbers against that trio of defenders.

And while it might seem like a negative for the Broncos to be significant dogs, the fact is that Sanders has had significant splits since Manning retired in 2016.

  • As dog (17 games): 16.4 DraftKings points, +3.75 Plus/Minus, 47.1% Consistency Rating
  • As favorite (26 games): 12.9 DraftKings points, +0.12 Plus/Minus, 42.3% Consistency Rating

I’ll probably avoid Sanders in cash games because I want more safety than a Flacco-dependent player can provide, but he’s in play for guaranteed prize pools, especially on DraftKings, where he’s second at the position with eight Pro Trends and is the top wide receiver in the Bales Model.

D.K. Metcalf: Seattle Seahawks (-4) vs. New Orleans Saints, 45 O/U

The rookie Metcalf was the No. 1 DraftKings wide receiver in the Freedman Model last week, and he’s at the top of the model again this week. He is 100% absolutely not a cash-game play, but I like him a lot as a speculative GPP option.

In my dynasty rookie rankings, I noted his volatile upside.

In college he struggled to stay healthy: In only one of his three years at Ole Miss did he play an entire season.

Perhaps most importantly, Metcalf exhibited little nuance as a player: He lined up almost exclusively as the X receiver and ran a very limited route tree consisting almost entirely of flies, curls and fades. In the NFL, it’s unlikely that he will ever be an effective receiver out of the slot because he lacks the agility and route-running ability to operate in the middle of the field.

In other words, he’s basically a one-dimensional player.

But within the confines of that one dimension, Metcalf can be incredibly dominant. He has unbelievable playmaking potential as a downfield threat: His speed allows him to get past defenders, and his size gives him an edge on contested catches. And before a neck injury cut his season short, he was on pace for a 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown performance in 2018.

A classic boom-or-bust player, Metcalf might have the widest range of professional outcomes of any receiver in this class.

Even though he’s in a run-first offense, Metcalf through two weeks has been as good on a per-game basis as advertised.

  • Fantasy production: 14 DraftKings points, +6.25 Plus/Minus, 100% Consistency Rating
  • Football production: 7-150-1 receiving on 13 targets

Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown three end-zone targets this season: Two of them have been to Metcalf.

While 7.5 targets per game isn’t a lot, Metcalf has leveraged his 0.24 target share into an elite 0.48 market share of air yards — the fifth-highest mark in the league. As the downfield threat in the offense, Metcalf had an aggressive aDOT of 16.7 yards. All it takes is a few well-placed passes for Metcalf to have a big game.

I like his matchup against the Saints, who have opened the season with a grisly 49.9 PFF coverage grade and allowed opposing teams to score 27.5 points per game.

Metcalf is likely to draw shadow coverage from No. 1 corner Marshon Lattimore, whose play has recently slipped. This year, Lattimore has allowed a 10-189-2 receiving line on 14 targets in his coverage. Even though it’s theoretically not ideal for Metcalf if Lattimore tails him, in reality it could be very good: Metcalf has the ability to beat Lattimore in one-on-one matchups.

  • D.K. Metcalf: 6-foot-3, 228 pounds, 4.33-second 40-yard dash
  • Marshon Lattimore: 6-foot, 193 pounds, 4.36-second 40-yard dash

Metcalf is faster than Lattimore and can easily out-muscle him when fighting for position on contested catches.

Under head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks at home are 46-30-3 against the spread (including playoffs), good for an A-graded 18.0% return on investment (per Bet Labs). They have one of the best home-field advantages in the league.

At home in this matchup with his downfield play-making role, Metcalf has GPP-altering upside.

Nelson Agholor: Philadelphia Eagles (-6) vs. Detroit Lions, 45.5 O/U

In Week 2, the Eagles played on Sunday Night Football, and by the time the despondence of their receiver situation was obvious, Week 3 salaries had already been set. As a result, in the absence of top wide receivers Alshon Jeffery (calf) and DeSean Jackson (groin), Agholor is likely to function as the No. 1 receiver against the Lions and be something of a chalk lock in cash games.

Last week, with D-Jax out and Alshon playing just six snaps, Agholor led the Eagles with eight receptions, 107 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets.

In the 13 games Carson Wentz played in his 2017 breakout campaign, Agholor was fairly comparable to Alshon.

  • Alshon Jeffery (13 games): 13.8 DraftKings points, 4.0 receptions, 56.3 yards, 0.62 touchdowns
  • Nelson Agholor (13 games): 12.7 DraftKings points, 3.7 receptions, 51.0 yards, 0.54 touchdowns

And that was with Nellie and ‘Shon sharing the field together. For Week 3, Agholor gets the benefit of playing without the target hog, and his three previous games without Alshon — all at the beginning of the 2018 season — are encouraging.

  • Fantasy production: 14.3 DraftKings points, +1.43 Plus/Minus, 66.7% Consistency Rating
  • Football production: 20-145-1 on 27 targets, 2-18-0 rushing, 16-yard pass completion

Agholor has run 81.5% of his routes from the slot this year, so he’s likely to face Lions cornerback Justin Coleman, who has been targeted a slot-high 16 times in two weeks. Nelson has a good chance to see double-digit targets for the second game in a row.

For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Agholor leads the position with his Projected Plus/Minus values and is the No. 1 receiver in the Raybon Model.

He’s also the top DraftKings receiver in the Koerner Model.

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans ($7,800 DK, $8,900 FD): Nuk has a tough matchup with shadow cornerback Casey Hayward Jr., but he’s No. 3 in the league with 306 air yards and he leads the position with his median projections in our Models.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($7,600 DK, $8,200 FD): Adams has position-high ceiling and floor projections on FanDuel as well as a 100% Leverage Score, and the Broncos defense is No. 26 with a 42.0% pass DVOA.

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints ($7,400 DK, $8,000 FD): Thomas entered the year with an all-time NFL-high 321 receptions through his first three seasons, in each of Weeks 1-2 he had 13 targets and he has a position-high 98% Leverage Score on DraftKings.

Antonio Brown, New England Patriots ($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD): AB played just 24 snaps last week, but he was targeted on eight of his 14 routes, three of his targets were in the end zone and he had an elite 4.0 yards per route run.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,900 DK, $7,600 FD): His Holiness leads the Bucs with 15 targets, 11 receptions, 174 yards receiving, 62 yards after the catch and two touchdowns, and he’s facing a Giants defense that has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to wide receivers with 55.7 per game.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,900 DK, $7,500 FD): JuJu disappointed in Weeks 1-2, but he’s still on pace for 1,296 yards, he’s gotten eight targets in each game, there’s a non-zero chance that quarterback Mason Rudolph is better than Ben Roethlisberger at this point in their careers and the 49ers defense was No. 32 in the league last year with a horrid 37.5 PFF coverage grade.

Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,800 DK, $7,100 FD): Watkins underwhelmed in Week 2 with a 6-49-0 receiving line while Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman went off, but he easily led the team with 13 targets, he has an NFL-high 413 combined air yards and yards after the catch and the Chiefs-Ravens game has a slate-high over/under of 52 points.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($6,600 DK, $7,000 FD): Golladay leads the Lions with 19 targets, 12 receptions, 159 yards receiving, 295 air yards and two touchdowns, the favored Eagles have allowed an NFL-high 58.1 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers and Golladay since last season has averaged 17.6 DraftKings points with a +5.08 Plus/Minus in his 11 games as an underdog.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,600 DK, $7,100 FD): Evans has played behind Godwin to open the year, but he’s one of just three wide receivers in NFL history to open his career with five straight 1,000-yard seasons, he has a 0.37 share of air yards on a 0.21 target share and he had a 6-120-1 receiving performance on seven targets against the Giants last year.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,500 DK, $6,600 FD): Boyd has a tough matchup against the Bills, but he is top-10 with 21 targets, and he leads all receivers with his DraftKings floor projection.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts ($6,400 DK, $7,400 FD): Hilton has maintained his value this year with a 12-130-3 receiving line, and the Colts are laying points at home, where Hilton has averaged 19.6 DraftKings points in his 29 games as a favorite since his 2014 breakout season.

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks ($6,200 DK, $6,600 FD): Lockett leads the Seahawks with 14 targets and 11 receptions, and he’ll run most of his routes against Saints slot corner P.J. Williams, who is yet to have a PFF coverage grade of even 70.0 in any of his four NFL seasons.

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens ($5,900 DK, $6,100 FD): Hollywood leads all qualified receivers with 5.18 yards per route, he has a team-high 18 targets, 233 yards receiving, 249 air yards and 113 yards after the catch and he should be able to race by the slow Bashaud Breeland (4.62-second 40-yard dash).

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers ($5,900 DK, $6,500 FD): Moore leads the Panthers with 24 targets, 16 receptions and 165 yards receiving, and the Cardinals are without starting cornerbacks Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (leg, injured reserve).

John Brown, Buffalo Bills ($5,500 DK, $5,900 FD): The Abolitionist has a team-high 18 targets, 14 receptions, 195 yards receiving, 243 air yards and 53 yards after the catch, and the Bengals rank No. 30 with their 33.2 PFF coverage grade.

John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,100 DK, $6,700 FD): Ross leads the NFL with 31 DraftKings points per game, he trails only Watkins with his 383 combined air yards and yards after the catch, and as good as Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White is, Ross should be able to get by him for a few deep targets with his record-breaking speed (4.22-second 40-yard dash).

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($5,100 DK, $5,900 FD): The aged Fitz leads the Cardinals with 24 targets, 13 receptions, 217 yards receiving and 273 air yards, and Panthers slot corner Javien Elliott has a career 89.3% catch rate allowed.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($4,900 DK, $6,000 FD): Fuller has a 0.33 air yard market share on a 0.17 target share, Chargers cornerback Brandon Facyson has a poor 42.2 PFF coverage grade and Fuller has averaged 16.5 DraftKings points across his 13 games with quarterback Deshaun Watson.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Philadelphia Eagles ($3,500 DK, $4,600 FD): Jaws has a good combination of size (6-foot-2, 223 pounds) and athleticism (4.49-second 40-yard dash), he was a productive and dominant contested-catch receiver in college, he played 93% of the snaps in Week 2 and he will slide into the “Alshon role” against the Lions.

James Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,500 DK, $5,200 FD): Washington seems likely to replace the drop-prone Donte Moncrief on the depth chart, he gets the “Shower Narrative” benefit of playing with his college teammate in quarterback Mason Rudolph and the 49ers have a poor secondary.

Devin Smith, Dallas Cowboys ($3,400 DK, $5,200 FD): Smith is expected to start in place of the injured Michael Gallup (knee), he was targeted last week on three of his nine routes, he flashed with 74 yards and a touchdown and Dolphins cornerback Eric Rowe has allowed a 10-136-2 receiving line on the 12 targets in his coverage this year.

Damiere Byrd, Arizona Cardinals ($3,000 DK, $5,000 FD): Byrd has 14 targets and an 89.7% snap rate, and there could be a lot of points in the Cardinals-Panthers game, as both teams are top-two in pace of play.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Nelson Agholor
Photo credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

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About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.