The Week 3 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Sep. 27, at 1 p.m. ET.
In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models, and I include plenty of actionable analysis relevant to season-long fantasy as well.
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Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are eight — EIGHT! — wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- DeAndre Hopkins: $7,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
- Amari Cooper: $6,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
- D.K. Metcalf: $6,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
- Michael Gallup: $6,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
- CeeDee Lamb: $5,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
- Darius Slayton: $4,900 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
- Darnell Mooney: $3,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
- Damiere Byrd: $3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.
DeAndre Hopkins: Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) vs. Detroit Lions, 55 Over/Under
Hopkins has been a top-10 fantasy wide receiver in each of the past two weeks, opening the season in dominant fashion as the Cardinals have flown to a 2-0 record.
- Week 2 (vs. WAS): 20.8 DraftKings points | 8-68-1 receiving on nine targets
- Week 1 (at SF): 32.1 DraftKings points | 14-151-0 receiving on 16 targets
While there was offseason concern about how Hopkins would play with a new passer, his connection with quarterback Kyler Murray has been unbelievable. With a league-high 25 targets, Nuk has an 88% catch rate and has gifted Murray a top-shelf mark of 9.6 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A, per RotoViz AY/A App).
Essentially, on his targets to Hopkins, Murray has looked like 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes (9.6 AY/A).
Needless to say, Hopkins looks to be having himself another All-Pro campaign.
Through two weeks, Hopkins is No. 3 among all wide receivers with 26.5 DraftKings points per game, and over the past three-plus years he has been as consistent as any receiver in the league, putting up fantasy WR1 performances in 52% of his games played (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
The main slate is incredibly thin at the top of the position. Just think about the first five wide receivers taken in season-long drafts a month ago.
- Michael Thomas (ankle): Out with an injury — and also on Sunday Night Football
- Davante Adams (ankle, hamstring): Hampered with injury — and on SNF
- Tyreek Hill: On Monday Night Football
- Julio Jones (hamstring): Hampered with injury
- DeAndre Hopkins: Bingo
Of the Big Five, the only one healthy and available on the slate is Hopkins. For people desirous to pay up at the position, he will be incredibly popular, especially because he has an advantageous matchup with the Lions, who allowed a league-high 503.2 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) combined per game last year (per AirYards.com).
This year, they are No. 30 with a 43.0 coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus).
On top of that, the Lions are dealing with injuries in their secondary: Starting cornerbacks Desmond Trufant (hamstring) and Justin Coleman (hamstring, IR) both missed Week 2. Coleman is definitely out for Week 3, and Trufant seems unlikely to play given that he didn’t practice at all last week and missed the Wednesday session this week.
With Trufant and Coleman out, Hopkins is slated to run most of his routes against backup cornerback Amani Oruwariye, a second-year fifth-rounder who has allowed 9.8 yards per target with a 79.3% catch rate across his career.
Right now, George Michael’s “I Want Your Sex” is playing on repeat in my head. I want every bit of this matchup.
Sometimes you got to chew the chalk.
The No. 1 wide receiver in our Week 3 fantasy rankings, Hopkins is a no-doubt must-start WR1 in season-long leagues and a strong candidate for cash games in DFS.
For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Hopkins with Kyler.
Hopkins is the top receiver in the Levitan Model for DraftKings, where he has position-high median, ceiling and floor projections.
Amari Cooper: Dallas Cowboys (+5) at Seattle Seahawks, 55.5 O/U
I think this tweet just about says it all.
People out in the Twitter streets acting like Amari Cooper isn’t a WR1 when he has a 28% target share, 181 yards receiving, and 233 air yards.
Also, good morning.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 22, 2020
It’s easy to dislike Cooper because of his famed unreliability. Despite having 1,189 yards and eight touchdowns receiving last year, Cooper was a fantasy WR1 in just three games.
He was no better than a WR3 in 50% of his games. That’s #notgood.
Let’s be honest: Investing in Cooper has cost our families money. Our spouses are more than a little displeased with us. Marital bliss has been compromised.
Update: NFL week 2 – Amari Cooper still has exactly 0 touchdowns.
— Ashley Jennings (@AMurleyJ) September 20, 2020
If you play Cooper in DFS, you’re taking a real “If you’re not first, you’re last” approach to your lineup.
But the guy is criminally underappreciated. In his five NFL seasons, he has four 1,000-yard campaigns. Since joining the Cowboys in Week 8 of 2018, Cooper has amassed 2,266 yards and 15 touchdowns receiving and averaged 17.4 DraftKings points across 29 games (including playoffs).
Even though he’s yet to score a touchdown this year, he’s No. 14 at the position with 18.6 DraftKings points per game. He’s not at all having a poor start to the season.
- Week 2 (vs. ATL): 19.0 DraftKings points | 6-100-0 receiving on nine targets
- Week 1 (at LAR): 18.1 DraftKings points | 10-81-0 receiving on 14 targets
His one-handed 58-yard catch last week was one of the best plays of the year so far.
I can’t imagine looking at Cooper and thinking that he’s anything other than an exceptional player.
I’ll just get this out of the way: It’s a bad spot for him. With the Cowboys, Cooper has massively underperformed salary-based expectations both on the road and as an underdog. His splits are truly something to behold (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- Home (15 games): 23.5 DraftKings points | +8.70 Plus/Minus | 80% Consistency Rating
- Away (14 games): 10.8 DraftKings points | -4.41 Plus/Minus | 35.7% Consistency Rating
- Favorite (20 games): 20.6 DraftKings points | +5.34 Plus/Minus | 65% Consistency Rating
- Underdog (nine games): 10.2 DraftKings points | -4.24 Plus/Minus | 44.4% Consistency Rating
With Cooper, pain and pleasure are one. You’ve been warned.
But despite the spot, Cooper intrigues me.
The Cowboys have significant injury issues along their offensive line: Center Travis Frederick retired this offseason, right tackle La’el Collins (hip, IR) is yet to play this year and left tackle Tyron Smith (neck) missed Week 2.
But the Seahawks entered the season with PFF’s worst defensive line, and through two weeks they are No. 32 with a 51.0 PFF pass-rush grade. They are without top edge rusher Bruce Irvin (knee, IR) and will struggle to pressure quarterback Dak Prescott.
With a clean pocket, Prescott should be able to facilitate big performances for his receivers.
And the Seahawks secondary isn’t overly imposing. It has been bolstered over the past year by the additions of cornerback Quinton Dunbar and safeties Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs, but opposing wide receiver units are No. 1 in the league with an unbelievable 73.5 DraftKings points per game against the Seahawks.
Literally every starting wide receiver to face the Seahawks this year has gone off.
- Julian Edelman (Week 2): 28.9 DraftKings points | 8-179-0 receiving on 11 targets
- N’Keal Harry (Week 2): 15.2 DraftKings points | 8-72-0 receiving on 12 targets
- Damiere Byrd (Week 2): 13.2 DraftKings points | 6-72-0 receiving on nine targets
- Calvin Ridley (Week 1): 36.9 DraftKings points | 9-130-2 receiving on 12 targets
- Julio Jones (Week 1): 27.7 DraftKings points | 9-157-0 receiving on 12 targets
- Russell Gage (Week 1): 23.4 DraftKings points | 9-114-0 receiving on 12 targets
Cooper’s splits horrify — but are they bad enough to justify not playing him against a unit this fantastically generous?
Against the Seahawks on Wild Card Weekend of the 2018-19 season, Cooper had 20.6 DraftKings points on 7-106-0 receiving with nine targets. We know he can have a big game against head coach Pete Carroll’s defense.
A volatile WR1 in season-long leagues, Cooper is a boom/bust tournament play in DFS with the upside — and also the downside — to break the slate.
Cooper is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.
D.K. Metcalf: Seattle Seahawks (-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys, 55.5 O/U
What can really be said about this Seahawks-Cowboys game? “Play all the dudes,” as someone once said somewhere.
The Seahawks have a slate-best 30.25-point implied Vegas total and will likely rely on their passing attack in a high-scoring back-and-forth slugfest. With a #LetRussCook game script, Metcalf could eat (nailed it) for a third straight week.
He has been utterly dominant to open his second NFL season.
- Week 2 (vs. NE): 17.2 FanDuel points | 4-92-1 receiving on six targets
- Week 1 (at ATL): 17.5 FanDuel points | 4-95-1 receiving on eight targets
He was especially impressive last week. Despite facing the shadow coverage of shutdown cornerback Stephon Gilmore, Metcalf outright stole the soul of the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year with a “my ball, not yours” 54-yard touchdown.
Although he’s not a technically proficient player — he’s not yet a nuanced route runner — Metcalf is quickly becoming one of the league’s most dominant receivers thanks to his sheer athleticism, as exemplified by his 99th-percentile 133.3 Speed Score (per Player Profiler).
Last year, Metcalf flashed a lot of potential. In a slow-paced, run-focused offense, he was 58-900-7 receiving with a league-high 18 end-zone targets in the regular season, and then in two playoff games he balled out with an 11-219-1 receiving performance.
This year, he has transformed the promise of potential into the potency of production. The sample is small, but on his 14 targets, Metcalf has bestowed a massive 16.2 AY/A to Wilson.
tl;dr — dude can ball.
And his matchup is exploitable. The defense as a whole has not played well: The Cowboys are No. 25 with 29.5 points allowed per game.
And they have notable injury issues: Linebackers Leighton Vander Esch (collarbone, IR) and Sean Lee (groin, IR), perimeter cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring) and No. 4 cornerback Anthony Brown (ribs, IR) are all out.
Additionally, top edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence (knee) and perimeter cornerback Trevon Diggs (shoulder) did not practice on Wednesday. If one of them misses the game, that could be a big boon for the Seahawks, their passing offense and Metcalf by extension.
With Awuzie out, Metcalf is slated to run most of his routes against 34-year-old backup cornerback/safety Brandon Carr, and if Diggs is out, Metcalf will also likely face backups Daryl Worley or C.J. Godwin on some snaps.
Metcalf against second- and third-stringers is just unfair.
For the year, opposing wide receiver units are No. 7 with 35.8 FanDuel points per game against the Cowboys.
A low-end WR1 in season-long leagues, Metcalf is an option for all game types in DFS and is the top receiver in the Koerner Model for FanDuel.
Michael Gallup: Dallas Cowboys (+5) at Seattle Seahawks, 55.5 O/U
Gallup has gotten some heat over the past two weeks for his mediocre production.
- Week 2 (vs. ATL): 6.8 FanDuel points | 2-58-0 receiving on five targets
- Week 1 (at LAR): 6.5 FanDuel points | 3-50-0 receiving on five targets
Failing to hit salary-based expectations in either game, Gallup has clearly played behind No. 1 receiver Amari Cooper and rookie slot man CeeDee Lamb to open the year, as evidenced by his production, target market share (MS) and expected receiving fantasy points (reEP, per RotoViz Screener).
- Amari Cooper (two games): 16-181-0 receiving | 28% MS | 36.8 reEP
- CeeDee Lamb (two games): 11-165-0 receiving | 18% MS | 26.6 reEP
- Michael Gallup (two games): 5-108-0 receiving | 12% MS | 16.7 reEP
But Gallup’s on-field performance has been better than his numbers indicate. If not for a highly questionable pass interference call that negated a 47-yard catch in the final minute of Week 1, he would have a yardage total comparable to Lamb’s. Even with fewer targets, Gallup’s WOPR is almost identical to Lamb’s thanks to his large edge in air yards (Weighted Opportunity Rating, created by Josh Hermsmeyer, is a combination of target share and air-yard share).
- Michael Gallup: 0.37 WOPR | 179 air yards
- CeeDee Lamb: 0.38 WOPR | 101 air yards
Lamb has outproduced Gallup through two weeks, but he hasn’t been a bigger part of the offense. Gallup is getting high-leverage opportunities as the team’s primary downfield receiver.
I don’t want to be hyperbolic, but what Gallup has done in his 16-game stretch since last year is very good. It’s right on track with what DeAndre Hopkins did in his second season.
People, Michael Gallup is good.
Gallup (2019-20, Career Games 17-32):
– 71 Recs
– 1,215 ReYds
– 6 ReTDs
– 123 targetsDeAndre Hopkins (2014, Career Games 17-32):
– 76 Recs
– 1,210 ReYds
– 6 ReTDs
– 127 targetsBuy low on Gallup, everywhere.
Also, good morning.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 24, 2020
Can you actually spot the difference between these two players?
- DeAndre Hopkins (Games 17-32): 12.1 FanDuel points | +1.47 Plus/Minus
- Michael Gallup (Games 17-32): 12.1 FanDuel points | +3.08 Plus/Minus
As outlined in the Cooper blurb above, this is a good matchup. Every starting perimeter receiver to face the Seahawks this season has exceeded salary-based expectations.
- N’Keal Harry (Week 2): 11.2 FanDuel points | +5.87 Plus/Minus
- Damiere Byrd (Week 2): 10.2 FanDuel points | +6.01 Plus/Minus
- Calvin Ridley (Week 1): 29.4 FanDuel points | +20.4 Plus/Minus
- Julio Jones (Week 1): 20.2 FanDuel points | +7.57 Plus/Minus
In season-long leagues, Gallup is a high-end WR3 with tantalizing upside, and in DFS he is a strong pivot/leverage play on Cooper and Lamb — especially Lamb, who is similarly priced.
Since Week 1, Gallup’s salary has dropped $500 while Lamb’s has risen $400. In the Week 2 Millionaire Maker, Gallup was the least-stacked of the three Cowboys wide receivers (per our FantasyLabs Contests Dashboard).
- Dak Prescott-Amari Cooper: 5.27% exposure rate
- Dak Prescott-CeeDee Lamb: 3.66% exposure rate
- Dak Prescott-Michael Gallup: 3.21% exposure rate
In Week 3, sharp DFS players have the opportunity to buy the dip on Gallup, and he should be far less popular now relative to Lamb given their disparity in Week 2 performance.
Lamb might have anywhere from 3x to 5x the exposure of Gallup this week in tournaments. Given that we’re talking about a rookie making his third NFL start and a third-year veteran coming off a Hopkins-esque campaign, the market is far too bearish on Gallup.
Gallup is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, SportsGeek and Freedman Modes for FanDuel, where he has a position-high seven Pro Trends.
CeeDee Lamb: Dallas Cowboys (+5) at Seattle Seahawks, 55.5 O/U
Well, this is awkward.
In arguing for Michael Gallup, I might have inadvertently given off the impression that I’m down on Lamb. That’s absolutely not the case. As noted in the blurbs above for Amari Cooper and Gallup, every starting receiver to face the Seahawks this season has had success.
In this high-flying Cowboys offense — and with this matchup in particular — there’s certainly room at the table for everyone. As we’ve seen in Weeks 1-2, when you #LetRussCook a lot of people end up eating, and that includes opposing receivers.
The Seahawks have been atrocious against slot receivers this year.
- Julian Edelman (Week 2): 21.9 FanDuel points | 8-179-0 receiving on 11 targets
- Russell Gage (Week 1): 15.9 FanDuel points | 9-114-0 receiving on 12 targets
And now they are without starting slot cornerback Marquise Blair (knee, IR), who was replaced last week by backup Ugo Amadi after suffering his in-game injury.
A core special-teamer, Amadi is entirely overmatched when forced to play defense. On limited snaps, the second-year fourth-rounder has allowed an 86.4% catch rate for his career.
With this WR/CB matchup, Lamb could have a massive performance.
The rookie has looked good in his first two career games.
- Week 2 (vs. ATL): 14.5 FanDuel points | 6-106-0 receiving on five targets | 1-9-0 rushing
- Week 1 (at LAR): 8.4 FanDuel points | 5-59-0 receiving on six targets
And we know all about what Lamb did at Oklahoma in his storied college career.
The No. 17 pick in the draft, Lamb has a bright NFL future — and that future is now.
Like Gallup, Lamb is a season-long high-end WR3 with a slate-breaking ceiling. Even if you’re rostering three other receivers ranked ahead of him, it will be incredibly hard not to put him in your starting lineup this week. He is unbenchable with this matchup.
For DFS, Lamb is a strong candidate in cash games … but perhaps a contrarian fade in tournaments. At a minimum, Lamb’s popularity will force you to differentiate your lineups elsewhere if you go with him in GPPs.
Lamb is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan and Raybon Models for FanDuel.
Darius Slayton: New York Giants (+4) vs. San Francisco 49ers, 42 O/U
At $4,900 on DraftKings, Slayton is simply way too cheap relative to his median and ceiling projections, especially given all he has going for him.
First of all, running back Saquon Barkley (knee, IR) is out. Without him, the Giants might rely more on the passing game — especially as underdogs — and they already have a league-high 69.8% pass-play rate.
Plus, Barkley is one of the league’s best receiving backs. Slayton’s target competition is less intense with Barkley sidelined.
And wide receiver Sterling Shepard (toe, IR) is out. In his 16 career games, Slayton has enjoyed a small uptick in target volume and production without Shepard (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
On top of that, the 49ers defense is severely injured. Top cornerback Richard Sherman (calf, IR), top edge rusher Nick Bosa (knee, IR) and top defensive tackle Solomon Thomas (knee, IR) are all out. Rotational edge rusher Dee Ford (back) missed Week 2 and is almost certain to miss Week 3.
In rushing the passer and defending the pass, the 49ers will not be their usual selves.
They’ve already allowed some unexpected performances to perimeter receivers this year.
- Chris Hogan (Week 2): 13.5 DraftKings points | 6-75-0 receiving on eight targets
- DeAndre Hopkins (Week 1): 32.1 DraftKings points | 14-151-0 receiving on 16 targets
A big-play receiver with near-elite speed (4.39-second 40-yard dash), Slayton flashed as a rookie in 2019, putting up a 48-740-8 receiving line despite entering the league as a fifth-rounder and catching passes from a broken-down Eli Manning and first-year Daniel Jones.
And his start to the season has been in keeping with what we saw last year.
- Week 2 (at CHI): 6.3 DraftKings points | 3-33-0 receiving on six targets
- Week 1 (vs. PIT): 31.2 DraftKings points | 6-102-2 receiving on nine targets
Slayton is clearly a boom/bust receiver — but with viable volume he has boomed a lot more than busted. In his 12 career games with four-plus targets, he has averaged 18.3 DraftKings points, 66.9 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game.
With a pass-heavy game script and without Sterling and Barkley, the odds are good that Slayton has four-plus targets in Week 3.
An upside WR3 in season-long leagues, Slayton warrants sustained cash-game and tournament consideration in DFS.
He is the No. 1 receiver in the Raybon and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +3.93 Projected Plus/Minus.
Darnell Mooney: Chicago Bears (+3) at Atlanta Falcons, 47.5 O/U
With Mooney, we’ve reached the punt portion of the article.
I’ll be honest: I don’t want to spend time writing about him, and I doubt you want to spend time reading about him.
In an uninspiring Bears offense, Mooney at best is the No. 3 pass-catching option behind wide receivers Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller — but tight end Jimmy Graham and running backs David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen might also be ahead of him.
A fifth-rounder out of Tulane with grade-school size (5-foot-10, 176 pounds) and track-and-field speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash), Mooney hasn’t done much to excite in his first two NFL games.
- Week 2 (vs. NYG): 12.6 DraftKings points | 3-36-1 receiving on three targets
- Week 1 (at DET): 6.8 DraftKings points | 3-38-0 receiving on three targets
OK, yes, he has converted all of his targets into receptions, so right now he has an über-efficient 12.3 yards per target, and he has also scored a touchdown
But Mooney has just six targets on the year.
Maybe, though, his target volume will increase. Last game, the Bears made Week 1 starter Ted Ginn Jr. a healthy inactive, and they reallocated his playing time to Mooney, who saw his week-over-week snap rate jump from 32% to 60%.
Mooney is now a starter in quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s offense. Celebrate.
What Mooney really has going for him is the matchup: The Falcons have PFF’s No. 30 secondary. And that ranking feels generous.
A desperate dart throw in season-long leagues, Mooney is a differentiating min-priced tournament play in DFS, especially in Bears stacks or as the “run-back piece” opposite Falcons stacks.
Mooney is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating.
Damiere Byrd: New England Patriots (-5.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 48 O/U
Like Mooney, Byrd is a min-priced punt play on DraftKings. I like my life, so I’m extremely unlikely to roster Byrd, but I can see the case for him.
First, he’s a locked-in starter. Although he had zero targets in Week 1, he had nine in Week 2, putting up a respectable 6-72-0 receiving line. In both weeks he played a snap rate in excess of 85%, and he has run a route on 94.4% of quarterback Cam Newton’s drop backs.
Byrd will be on the field and at least putting himself in position to get targets.
Second, he has a promising matchup against cornerback Damon Arnette, an overdrafted first-round rookie who has struggled to adjust to the NFL.
In his first professional game, Arnette got schooled by wide receiver Robby Anderson on a double-move 75-yard touchdown. Even though Arnette tried to hold Anderson after he’d been beaten — he drew a declined penalty flag — he still allowed the reception.
Before the drive even started, the Panthers knew they were going to take a deep shot on Arnette, who was “coming down being nosy” and “huffing and puffing.”
In the huddle right before the play, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater told Anderson, “Hey, it’s touchdown right here, Robby.”
Think about that: Bridgewater was dead last in 2019 with his 6.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT). He never throws downfield.
How bad does a cornerback have to be to make Bridgewater of all people want to throw deep?
Maybe Arnette will one day develop into a legit corner, but through two weeks he has allowed an 8-151-1 receiving line on nine targets. That comes out to an 88.9% catch rate and 16.8 yards per target.
In his coverage, Byrd could have a big game.
And it’s not as if Arnette is the only vulnerable pass defender. The Raiders are No. 31 with a 39.3 PFF coverage grade. That entire defense is bad.
As I mentioned in my QB breakdown, I’m betting on the Patriots.
Since 2004 (as far back as our Bet Labs database goes), Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 114-59-6 against the spread (ATS) when facing teams that failed to make the playoffs in the previous year, good for a 28.6% return on investment (ROI) and an A grade within Bet Labs.
Under the Belichick regime, the Pats have been a “no mercy” franchise against overmatched opponents.
They have also been hard on teams relatively unfamiliar with them; teams that don’t play them every year. Against non-divisional opponents, Belichick is 104-63-4 ATS (22.5% ROI).
And against non-divisional opponents that didn’t play in the postseason, Belichick is an imposing 64-25-1 ATS (41.1% ROI).
He no longer has quarterback Tom Brady, but Belichick still has something even more valuable: Himself.
In his 21 games without Brady (15 in 2018, four in 2016 and two this year), Belichick is 13-8 ATS (22.3% ROI). I’m not worried about Belichick’s ability to cover without Brady.
Coming off their Sunday Night Football loss, the Pats should be focused, motivated and extremely desirous to put Week 2 behind them by dominating in Week 3. After a loss, Belichick’s Pats are 40-15 ATS (44.2% ROI).
Bellicose Belichick should have his team ready to throw down, and that could mean more opportunities for Byrd.
A season-long nonentity, Byrd is stackable with Newton in DFS tournaments, especially on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner Model.
Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($7,400 DK, $7,800 FD): He’s Julio Jones. Do you actually need to read a blurb on Julio Jones?
Blurb: Jones (hamstring) is dealing with a soft-tissue injury, but he has the ability to go off in any game regardless of opponent.
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons ($7,200 DK, $8,000 FD): That 90-1 ticket on Ridley to lead the league in receiving is looking pretty good. Ridley is the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 34.9 DraftKings and 27.9 FanDuel points per game on 22-239-4 receiving and 364 air yards and yards after the catch combined (AirYAC, per RotoViz Player Statistical Summary).
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings ($6,900 DK, $7,200 FD): Even with his dreadful 3-31-0 receiving line in Week 2, Thielen is still No. 6 at the position with 145.5 AirYAC per game. The Titans are without No. 1 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (knee, IR), and cornerbacks Malcolm Butler (quad) and Chris Jackson (hamstring) are dealing with injuries.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,800 DK, $7,700 FD): Teammate Chris Godwin (concussion) practiced fully on Wednesday, so Evans probably won’t see the 10 targets this week he got last week without Godwin. But the matchup is delicious, as the Broncos are sans No. 1 cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder, IR) and starting rookie Michael Ojemudia in his place.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,700 DK, $7,900 FD): Although he missed Week 2, Godwin (concussion) had an encouraging 6-79-0 receiving performance in Week 1. He has an immaculate matchup with undrafted rookie cornerback Essang Bassey in the slot, and wide receiver units are No. 5 against the Broncos with 48.9 DraftKings and 37.6 FanDuel points per game.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,600 DK, $7,000 FD): Sometimes, we lose our faith. We doubt.
So I woke up today, had two big cups of decaf coffee, went for a walk, took a long shower, and then finally, while trimming my beard, looked myself in the mirror and said:
“Diontae Johnson is the WR1 in Pittsburgh, and JuJu Smith-Schuster isn’t.”
The first step is recognition.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 21, 2020
Smith-Schuster has underwhelmed with just 14 targets, but his 8.4 yards per target this year is right in line with his 2018-19 mark of 8.4. He’s still the same guy who put up 1,426 yards two years ago. Even if he’s no longer his team’s No. 1 wide receiver, Smith-Schuster should still see more targets soon.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks ($6,400 DK, $6,800 FD): Even though he’s 15-159-1 receiving on 16 targets, Lockett is $100 cheaper on DraftKings than he was in Week 1 and the same price on FanDuel. Disgraceful. For the Cowboys, No. 1 cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring) and No. 4 cornerback Anthony Brown (ribs, IR) are out and perimeter cornerback Trevon Diggs (shoulder) did not practice on Wednesday.
Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Brown ($6,300 DK, $6,800 FD): After an opportunity-filled yet unproductive Week 1, OBJ bounced back in Week 2 with 4-74-1 receiving on six targets. He has an exploitable matchup against perimeter cornerback Jimmy Moreland (48.9 PFF coverage grade).
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($6,200 DK, $7,500 FD): I can’t not write about Babytron, who was No. 1 in the league with 36 deep targets and No. 2 with 14 end-zone targets last year. Golladay (hamstring) is expected to play, and Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson allowed wide receiver Terry McLaurin to go off last week with 7-125-1 receiving.
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears ($6,200 DK, $6,900 FD): His 3-33-0 receiving performance left fantasy investors dissatisfied last week, but Robinson is still No. 8 at the position with his 29% market share of targets and 39% share of air yards. Through two weeks, opposing wide receiver units have top-four fantasy production against the Falcons with 49.3 DraftKings and 38.3 FanDuel points per game.
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($6,200 DK, $6,500 FD): No Tom Brady, no problem. Edelman had a career-high 179 yards receiving in Week 2 and has an NFL-best 18.5 yards per touch.
Edelman is No. 1 in the league with a 52% market share of targets, and he has a great matchup against cornerback Lamarcus Joyner, a safety-turned-slot defender who last year had a career-worst 44.4 PFF coverage grade and allowed a gaping 73.9% catch rate.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,100 DK, $7,100 FD): The No. 1 wide receiver in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 3 Air Yards Buy-Low Model, Allen returned to form last week with 7-96-0 receiving on 10 targets. He has a good matchup in the slot against cornerback Corn Elder, who has just 57 snaps of NFL coverage experience.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers ($6,100 DK, $6,700 FD): Despite his 8-120-0 receiving performance on 13 targets last week, Moore is now $200 cheaper on DraftKings and $100 cheaper on FanDuel. He is slated for a tough shadow matchup with cornerback Casey Hayward Jr., but Moore is No. 5 in the league with a 30% target share and No. 10 with 142.5 AirYAC per game.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams ($6,100 DK, $6,600 FD): With his 8-119-0 receiving and 4-33-1 rushing lines, Woods leads Rams wide receivers with 24.3 expected fantasy points. He has a tough shadow matchup against All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White, but that might serve to diminish his tournament exposure, and he’s playing in a #RevengeGame, so, you know …
Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($6,000 DK, $6,000 FD): Fuller killed his fantasy investors last week with zero yards on one carry and no targets. Am I worried?
The day I stop being optimistic about Will Fuller is the day I lie dead and buried six feet under in the coffin Will Fuller has put me in. https://t.co/2DekreuV99
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 23, 2020
Nah, ain’t worried. The dead have no cares. Fuller (hamstring) had a soft-tissue tweak that sidelined him for much of Sunday, but on Wednesday he practiced … “fully.” (Get it? It’s a pun on his name.) Get ready to hate yourself. Fuller has a position-high 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,000 DK, $5,900 FD): What ought one to do with Green?
If I’m looking at the numbers — the targets, air yards, end-zone opportunities — I’d say that A.J. Green is a clear buy.
If I’m looking at him actually play — his inability to separate and generally not seem like an old man — I’d say he’s done.
Verdict: Tentative soft buy? https://t.co/LGUbtjc7eV
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 23, 2020
The matchup with cornerback Darius Slay is tough, but Green is No. 1 with 338 air yards in two weeks. I mean, com’on.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team ($5,900 DK, $6,700 FD): How? Why? McLaurin was 7-125-1 receiving on 10 targets last week, and he’s the same price on DraftKings and only $200 more on FanDuel.
McLaurin is tied for No. 6 with 145.5 AirYAC per game, and Browns cornerbacks Greedy Williams (shoulder) and Kevin Johnson (liver) are dealing with injuries.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts ($5,600 DK, $6,200 FD): Lord, give me strength. Hilton is just 7-81-0 receiving, but he is also No. 7 in the league with a 40% share of air yards. If not for three drops — one of which would have been a 44-yard touchdown — the perception of him would be very different.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,400 DK, $6,300 FD): Not only is Johnson taking JuJu Smith-Schuster’s targets and touchdowns, but he’s also stealing his touchdown celebration swag.
Johnson’s 6.5 yards per target is a notably poor mark, but that could easily improve, and his back-to-back games with 10-plus targets is the stuff of a breakout superstar.
Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers ($5,200 DK, $6,100 FD): While teammate D.J. Moore faces shutdown cornerback Casey Hayward Jr., Anderson should have an easier time against Michael Davis (64.3 PFF coverage grade). Anderson is a top-six fantasy wide receiver with 25.2 DraftKings and 18.0 FanDuel points per game, and that’s probably not a fluke given that he’s also tied for No. 6 with 145.5 AirYAC per game.
DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,200 DK, $5,500 FD): Although he is only 8-110-0 receiving, D-Jax is No. 5 overall with 149 AirYAC per game. The Bengals last year were No. 29 with a 30.5% pass-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). In his 21 games with a receiving touchdown since 2014 (his first year away from the Eagles), Jackson has averaged 101.1 scrimmage yards. In the immortal words of Axl Rose: “Don’t you cry tonight, there’s a heaven above you, baby.”
Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons ($5,100 DK, $5,600 FD): In his 11 games since former teammate Mohamad Sanu was traded, Gage has averaged 7.9 targets. The Bears have yielded 5-81–0 and 5-47-0 receiving performances on 12 targets to slot receivers Danny Amendola and Golden Tate over the past two weeks.
Golden Tate, New York Giants ($4,500 DK, $5,400 FD): Without teammate Sterling Shepard (toe, IR), Tate has gotten more volume and produced more fantasy points.
The home underdog Giants will likely have a pass-heavy game script against the depleted 49ers.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,300 DK, $5,700 FD): Although he disappointed with 2-14-0 receiving on four targets in quarterback Justin Herbert’s Week 2 NFL debut, Williams still leads the team with a 34% share of air yards. The Panthers are without three of their four top cornerbacks from last season, including No. 1 corner James Bradberry, and they are No. 28 with a 43.9 PFF coverage grade. There’s a non-zero chance that Williams is better than Allen.
N’Keal Harry, New England Patriots ($4,200 DK, $5,300 FD): After a lost 2019 rookie campaign, Harry is 13-111-0 receiving and tied for the team lead with 18 targets. Last year the Raiders were No. 31 with a 33.2% pass-defense DVOA.
Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers ($4,000 DK, $5,100 FD): The loss of running back Christian McCaffrey (ankle, IR) clears the way for Samuel to play a hybrid role as a slot receiver/change-of-pace runner.
I just realized what Christian McCaffrey’s injury means …
We are just days away from @Ihartitz naming himself president of the Curtis Samuel fan club and declaring Samuel the greatest running back of all time.
8.6 yards per carry: Cordarrelle Patterson better watch his back.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 24, 2020
Is it totally out of the question that a Percy Harvin clone who had a 97-771-8 rushing and 74-865-7 receiving season as a 20-year-old Ohio State junior might now be the best healthy running back on the Panthers?
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts ($4,000 DK, $5,000 FD): With the loss of teammate Parris Campbell (knee, IR), Pittman played a full-time 92% snap rate in Week 2. A big-bodied catch-point dominator, the second-round rookie has a strong matchup against the Jets, who are No. 29 with a 43.3 PFF coverage grade.
Chris Hogan, New York Jets ($3,700 DK, $5,000 FD): Despite dealing with an injury, Hogan (ribs) is one of the healthier Jets receivers right now. Starters Jamison Crowder (hamstring) and Breshad Perriman (ankle) are unlikely to play, and Hogan was 6-75-0 receiving last week as the top perimeter wideout.
Braxton Berrios, New York Jets ($3,600 DK, $5,100 FD): Drafted in the sixth round of the 2018 draft by the Patriots, Berrios is the discarded would-be heir to Julian Edelman’s ever-occupied throne. He was 6-59-1 receiving last week on eight targets and is expected to reprise his role as a slot-bound injury fill-in.
K.J. Hamler, Denver Broncos ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD): Currently priced at the stone minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Hamler had 119 AirYAC with 3-48-0 receiving and 1-9-0 rushing in his Week 2 NFL debut. With No. 1 wide receiver Courtland Sutton (knee, IR) out, Hamler is slated to be the team’s top perimeter option, and the 21-year-old second-rounder has DeSean Jackson-like deep speed.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Rosemount, Minnesota, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Amari Cooper #19 of the Dallas Cowboys
Photo credit: Elsa/Getty Images
