Week 2 was a wild week full of injuries and important results, and we’ve got another massive slate of football on the horizon with 12 games on Sunday’s main afternoon slate on DraftKings. With a Monday Night Football doubleheader, Week 3’s main slate is one game lighter than Week 2’s. It also brings a little more balance, with seven games kicking off at 1:00 p.m. ET and five in the late wave.
Even though we still have a few days before kickoff, it’s never too early to start lining up your NLF DFS lineups for Week 3. Some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar for this week.
The highest over/under on the slate is the matchup between the Lions and the Cardinals in Arizona, and the Lions have the highest implied team total on the board for the second straight week. The Eagles-Saints and Cowboys-Ravens matchups also have very healthy point totals and should bring plenty of fantasy goodness.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Sam Darnold ($5,500) Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) vs. Houston Texans (46 total)
Darnold has led the Vikings to a 2-0 start after they upset the 49ers last Sunday and our projections like him for another big game this week at home against Houston. Darnold has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback in each of the three main projections used for this preview–Sean Koerner’s, Chris Raybon’s and Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ. Using our evenly blended three-way aggregate, he stands out with the best Projected Plus/Minus and the most Pts/Sal of any QB in play on Sunday afternoon.
Darnold has thrown over 200 yards and two touchdowns in each of his first two starts this season. He connected with Justin Jefferson on a beautiful deep throw early in Sunday’s win, but he continued to make plays even after Jefferson left with an injury. Darnold finished with 268 passing yards to go with his two passing touchdowns and added 32 yards on the ground as well. He finished with 20.92 DraftKings points in Week 2, which made him the fourth-highest-scoring QB of the week.
After beating the Niners, the Vikings are again home underdogs for this matchup against the Texans, and Darnold is still a very cheap option to build around. The Texans have given up the 10th-most DraftKings points to QBs this season and gave up big plays to Anthony Richardson in Week 1 on the road, allowing him to post 27.08 DraftKings points. They looked better at home last Sunday night, but Houston definitely hasn’t proven itself as a defense you have to avoid.
With good weapons as pass catchers and Kevin O’Connell’s pass-heavy system, Darnold has great upside from this price point in Week 3. He’ll be a top value to consider as he tries to get Minnesota to 3-0.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Elijah Moore ($3,600) Cleveland Browns (-6) vs. New York Giants (38.5 total)
The Browns bounced back from a Week 1 loss to Dallas and knocked off the Jaguars in Week 2. Moore was heavily involved in the win, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in both Koerner’s and Raybon’s projections for Week 3. He’s ranked a little lower in Carty’s but still has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers under $5,000.
Moore tied for the team lead in the Browns’ Week 2 win, catching 6-of-8 targets for 44 yards and 10.4 DraftKings points. He is clearly a favorite option for Deshaun Watson ($5,500) on short routes near the line of scrimmage, but he showed he has some strong after-the-catch potential with a 22-yard catch and run on Sunday.
While he isn’t as much of a downfield threat, his volume is enough to still make him a great play at this salary. The second-round pick of the Jets is coming off the best year of his career last year in his first year with the Browns and seems set up to be a very involved receiver moving forward.
The Giants have been a neutral matchup for receivers so far this season, but Moore and the Browns should be able to put up some points against New York, who is 0-2 with a -25 point differential.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Jordan Mason ($6,200) San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams (45.5 total)
With Christian McCaffrey (Achilles/calf) sidelined, Mason will continue to be the feature back for the 49ers, and after two monster games, it’s surprising that he’s still so affordable for this week’s matchup against the Rams.
Mason has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs in each of the three main projections by a fairly comfortable margin. He ran for 147 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Jets for an impressive 25.2 DraftKings points. He followed that up with 20.4 DraftKings points in Week 2 against a tough Vikings’ run defense while totaling exactly 100 rushing yards and a touchdown.
This week, he gets a much softer matchup against the Rams, who have given up the fifth-most DraftKings points to running backs this season. They have given up 308 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs in their first two games this year, and the game script should favor the 49ers playing from ahead and relying heavily on Mason to carry a big workload and post a big number.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Colby Parkinson ($3,600) Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) at San Francisco 49ers (45.5 total)
Parkinson edges out Broncos TE Greg Dulcich for the top value spot at tight end this week. Parkinson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends in the three-way aggregate projections and has the top spot in Raybon’s projections while raking in the top three in Koerner’s and Carty’s.
The Rams will need Parkinson to step up over the next few weeks with both Puka Nacua (knee) and Cooper Kupp (ankle) sidelined. He was involved with four catches on five targets for 47 yards in Week 1 against the Lions, but he only had one catch for 12 yards in Week 2. Part of that regression was that the Rams were way behind and had to take more deep shots, and part of it was just that the offense struggled in general.
With so many injuries, Parkinson should get plenty of targets against the 49ers, and he brings both a high floor and a nice ceiling for a tight end option under $4,000.
