Like any healthy market, price fluctuations are expected for players in daily fantasy football. Exploring those fluctuations can often reveal bargain players to target after down weeks or players that are rising too high in price above future expectations.
Each week, we will analyze one player at each position that has notably increased and decreased in price.
Notable NFL DFS Price Increases
Jalen Hurts, QB (Philadelphia Eagles) Week 1 DraftKings Price $6,800; Week 2 DraftKings Price $7,300
In a shootout with the Lions, Hurts was everything fantasy owners hoped for in week one after a promising off-season. He went 18-32 through the air for 243 yards and rushed 17 times for 90 yards and a touchdown.
Running quarterbacks are truly the cheat codes for fantasy football, and Hurts seems to have cracked those codes wide open. With just one touchdown accounted for, he still tallied 24.72 DraftKings points and beat his projection. Imagine if one or two of the other Eagles touchdowns goes his way.
Hurts’ salary spiked $500 for week two to the sixth-highest quarterback price. The Vikings defense bullied the Packers in week one. He will have some massive fantasy performances this season, but this week may be a more difficult test.
That said, he’s still projecting as a strong value in our early run of projections.
Darrell Henderson, RB (Los Angeles Rams) Week 1 DraftKings Price $5,300; Week 2 DraftKings Price $5,700
Aside from the All-Pro Cooper Kupp, the rest of the Rams offense floundered on Thursday night against the stout Bills defense. Henderson may have been the other lone bright spot, with backfield expectations focused on the return of Cam Akers after his torn Achilles from 2021.
Henderson tallied a team-high 13 rushes for 46 yards and added five catches for 26 yards. The final fantasy totals are not eye-popping, but his usage was impressive compared to just three touches for Akers. Whether due to performance or injury recovery, Henderson appears to be the primary tailback for the time being.
He has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the running back position in week two. In the eight games that Henderson logged 13 or more rushes in 2021, he had eight total touchdowns. He is a solid lineup option against the Falcons this week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR (Detroit Lions) Week 1 DraftKings Price $6,100; Week 2 DraftKings Price $6,500
The talented second-year wideout started 2022 the same way he ended 2021…with style. The USC alum received 12 targets in a shootout with the Eagles on Sunday and caught eight balls for 64 yards and a score.
The Lions drafted Jameson Williams in the first round of the 2022 draft and expect him to be ready to join the club at some point this season after an ACL injury in the national title game for Alabama. Until he gets up to speed, St. Brown appears to be the primary target for Jared Goff, and the Lions expect to be in come-from-behind mode often.
If his yards-per-target can improve, St. Brown is well worth the now elevated price tag in fantasy lineups. He now has seven straight games with at least 10 targets, dating back to last season.
St. Brown carries a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel — where he is a better price-sensitive play.
Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) Week 1 DraftKings Price $6,600; Week 2 DraftKings Price $7,500
This just in, Patrick Mahomes is pretty good. So is Kelce.
After a quieter offseason of expectations, the Chiefs showed why they are still a Super Bowl favorite in week one by pasting the Cardinals for 44 points on five Mahomes touchdown passes. Despite being a focal point for the defense, Kelce caught eight of nine targets for 121 yards and a score.
With Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts having down weeks, Kelce has ascended up the salary chart to the top spot by far at the position, $1,100 more than Andrews and $1,900 more than Darren Waller. There certainly is no safer tight end play for production than Kelce, and the price tag now reflects it.
Even with the increase in price, Kelce is still projecting as a value.
Notable NFL DFS Price Decreases
Trey Lance, QB (San Francisco 49ers) Week 1 DraftKings Price $6,000; Week 2 DraftKings Price $5,700
How much do you attribute the 49ers’ shocking loss to the Bears to the weather? That answer may be a good indicator of the level of excitement fantasy owners have for Lance after a difficult opening game.
In Lake Michigan, I mean Soldier Field, Lance went 13-28 for 164 yards and a pick through the air. He did add 13 rushes for 54 yards on the ground to salvage double-digit DraftKings fantasy points.
Lance has all the makings of a star fantasy quarterback with his strong arm and willingness to pick up yards, and touchdowns, with his feet. This week may be a better litmus test against the Seahawks in better weather.
Damien Williams, RB (Atlanta Falcons) Week 1 DraftKings Price $4,700; Week 2 DraftKings Price $4,200
Williams got hurt early in the Falcons’ week one heartbreaking loss to the Saints. With rookie Tyler Allgeier a surprise inactive for the game, the versatile veteran Cordarrelle Patterson owned the Atlanta backfield. He logged a career-high 27 touches for 136 total yards and a touchdown.
Coming into the season, Williams was projected as the primary tailback for the Falcons. Reports indicate his rib injury did not cause any broken bones.
If he is able to play through the soreness, Williams could be a surprise bargain play for tournament lineups against a Rams defense that showed some weakness against the Bills on opening night.
Allen Robinson II (Los Angeles Rams) Week 1 DraftKings Price $6,100; Week 2 DraftKings Price $5,500
Not exactly the best start in a Rams uniform for Robinson II. He caught just one ball for 12 yards on two targets.
Robinson II came over to Los Angeles from the Bears to play with Matthew Stafford, who is easily the best quarterback he has paired with over his nine-year career. With four 150+ target seasons, Robinson II was expected to take some weight off the shoulders of Kupp, but he did not lighten the load in week one.
Resetting expectations may be healthy with his $600 salary drop. At his current price level, he could provide some solid value if you believe in a bounce-back game for Sean McVey’s squad on Sunday with the highest implied point total of the week against the Falcons.
Mike Gesicki (Miami Dolphins) Week 1 DraftKings Price $4,800; Week 2 DraftKings Price $4,300
A potential sleeper tight end coming into 2022, Gesicki may have taken Week “1” a little too seriously as he recorded one catch for one yard on one target. That, of course, leads to 1.1 DraftKings points.
The fifth-year tight end topped 100 targets for the first time last season but was nowhere to be found in the game plan for the Dolphins on Sunday against the Patriots, even with Tua Tagovailoa having one of his better NFL starts and throwing for 270 yards.
Despite the price drop, stay away from Gesicki until we see some actual production. There are plenty of middle-to-bottom tier tight ends to choose from in better situations.
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