NFL Week 2 features a 12-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
There’s a pair of high-priced quarterbacks that are appealing for Week 2, both of whom were disappointments in Week 1. That’s Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) and Josh Allen ($7,900).
While Mahomes failed to live up to expectations in Week 1, his was fairly excusable. He was without his top target Travis Kelce ($7,600), with a largely untested group of receivers to throw to. They let him down in a big way, with Kadarius Toney dropping as many passes (four) as any other NFL team — including one that turned into an interception for the Lions.
Give Mahomes back the points from that INT and add the yardage from the drops, and he ends up with a respectable day. Things should be better in Week 2, with Kelce back and the best game environment on the slate, according to Vegas odds. I also like the offensive line matchup for the Chiefs passing game, which should give Mahomes plenty of time to push the ball downfield.
On the other hand, Josh Allen’s struggles in Week 1 were mostly of his own doing. He threw three interceptions, lost a fumble, and took five sacks in an overtime loss on Monday night football.
We’ve come to expect that from Allen to a degree where his highs are high, but his lows are low. He was also facing a borderline elite Jets defense that ranked top 10 in DVOA against the run and the pass last season. This week he draws the Raiders, who had the league’s worst passing DVOA last season and are extremely thin outside of Maxx Crosby.
The Bills have the highest implied total on the week, and given their usual style of play and the Raiders’ pass-funnel tendencies, it should flow through Allen.
Still, I prefer Mahomes this week for GPPs. Similar to last week, I prefer to target game environments more than individual teams, and the Chiefs-Jaguars game has shootout written all over it. We’re also projecting a considerable ownership discount on Mahomes, which is the bigger factor here.
Value
Value quarterbacks should be popular this week, especially for cash games. Seven of our eight top passers in Pts/Sal projection all come in at $6,000 or less, with the lone exception priced at $6,200.
Parsing between them is more of a challenge, as there are reasons to be concerned about each of them. My preferred option of the bunch is Daniel Jones ($6,000). While he had a stinker of a game in Week 1, taking seven sacks against a tough Cowboys pass rush, things should be better this week.
He’s taking on a Cardinals defensive front that PFF ranked 32nd coming into the season, so the sacks should be less of an issue. He’s also proven over the past few seasons to provide some upside with his legs, while the rest of the quarterbacks in his price range are fairly one-dimensional.
The Giants are pretty thin at receiver, but newly signed tight end Darren Waller ($5,500) and running back Saquon Barkley ($8,000) both can turn dump-offs into touchdowns. A Jones-Waller stack is especially interesting against a Cardinals team that’s been vulnerable to tight ends in recent years, but most of my interest in Jones is for cash games.
Quick Hits
Call me a Lions homer, but there’s a lot to like about Jarred Goff ($6,200) this week. He lit up the Seahawks for 37.22 points when these teams met last year, and Seattle has enough firepower to keep the points flowing in this one. More importantly, the game is at Ford Field, where Goff has excelled with the Lions:
Jared Goff Home/Road Splits With The Lions
In the spirit of targeting game environments, Trevor Lawrence ($6,700) taking on the Chiefs is an excellent play. Jacksonville is a slight home underdog against Kansas City and will need to be aggressive offensively. Jacksonville looks to have a very concentrated offense this year, with nearly 80% of the Week 1 air yards spread between Calvin Ridley ($7,200) and Zay Jones ($4,700).
That makes for some easy stacking options, and given that the Chiefs may only have on competent pass catcher, I prefer building around the Jags with a Kelce bringback over a Mahomes stack and a guess on which Jaguar to play it with.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
From a fantasy perspective, there are just two elite running backs left in the NFL: Christian McCaffrey ($8,900) and Austin Ekeler ($8,700). They’re the only backs to get the lion’s share of their team’s carries, targets, and goal-line work in the league.
McCaffrey stands out this week, with a much better matchup against the Rams. The Rams are far more attackable on the ground than the Titans, whom Ekeler faces. McCaffrey also received a surprising workload in Week 1, getting 22 carries and five targets despite the 49ers dominating the Steelers.
That usage is an extremely positive sign for McCaffrey, as the coaching staff obviously believes he can handle a heavy workload. He should see one again in Week 2, with San Francisco favored by more than a touchdown. Even if this game is closer than expected, McCaffrey is still in good shape. San Francisco needing to pass more only helps his outlook, with a target being worth more than double a carry for running backs.
McCaffrey is exceedingly likely to have at least a “solid” game, making him a reasonable cash game payup option. The bigger question is whether he can pay off his slate-leading salary. That could be trickier, as his ceiling isn’t much higher than the top wideouts, all of whom are at least $1,000 cheaper.
I’m happy to play McCaffrey in lineups built around cheap stacks, but I won’t be going out of my way to force him anywhere this week.
Ekeler’s status is in question after missing Friday’s practice and looks to be on the wrong side of questionable this week.
Value
Like quarterback, the mid-range running backs are the star of the show this week. Our top three players in Pts/Sal projection are McCaffrey and two sub-$6,000 running backs. That would be David Montgomery ($5,800) and Rachaad White ($5,500).
Of those options, I slightly prefer White. The Bucs second-year man is the clear lead back with very little behind him in Tampa Bay. He handled 17 carries last week, picking up 39 rushing yards. That’s horrible efficiency, but the Bears have a bad defensive front and I’ll bet on the volume all day.
Where he separates himself from Montgomery is in the passing game. White saw two targets last week, which is a far cry from McCaffrey numbers — but still two more than Montgomery. With six games of 5+ targets last season, White is far less dependent on game script than Montgomery.
Montgomery is an excellent two-down back, but he’ll be heavily dependent on 100-yard bonuses and touchdowns for fantasy production. While he handled 21 carries in Week 1, he could be scripted out of this one if it turns into a shootout. I also expect Detroit to shift to Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300) as he gets more comfortable with the offense. Gibbs should see most of the passing down and hurry up work here.
Of course, we’re splitting hairs a bit. The Lions offensive line is one of the league’s best, and Montgomery should have the goal line role sewn up for Detroit. Thanks to the touchdown equity, he probably has a higher ceiling than White but a slightly lower floor.
Quick Hits
Saquon Barkley ($8,000) might be the third elite fantasy back in the NFL, along with McCaffrey and Ekeler. He has a similar dual-threat role, though it’s much harder to trust the Giants offense. It’s hard to draw many conclusions from his Week 1 stat line since the Giants were almost instantly down double digits, but he has one of the more secure roles in football and is a solid pivot from CMC and Ekeler.
The aforementioned Jahmyr Gibbs is my preferred Lions back for tournaments. The game environment could play out in such a way that his skill set keeps him on the field, and he showed how explosive he can be in Week 1, averaging six yards per carry. It’s a bit of a stretch to rely on him this week, but he’ll take over this backfield at some point this season.
I’m also interested in Kenneth Walker ($5,800) in that game. Like Barkley, he suffered from a negative game script early but was still relevant thanks to five targets in the passing game. He’s on pace to more than double his targets from 2022, with arguably the best game environment on the slate this week.
The Chargers backfield is a bit murky behind Ekeler, but if he does miss, Josh Kelley ($5,000) likely assumes lead back duties for Los Angeles. DraftKings continues to be frustratingly aggressive with the prices on backup running backs, so he’s more “speculative play” than “absolute smash.”
A sneaky beneficiary of Ekeler’s absence could be Derrick Henry ($7,400). Henry is as cheap as we’ve seen him in a long time, and the Chargers, without Ekeler, could struggle to control the game. It’s a stretch, but “King Henry” is always a threat to pop off for multiple scores and 150+ yards.
The Bills have the highest implied team total on the slate at 27.8 points and are favored by more than a touchdown against the Raiders. Most of the interest will be on Josh Allen, but what if the early production comes on the ground? James Cook ($6,100) looked good against a tough Jets defensive front last week and should see his efficiency much higher in a far easier matchup this week.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
It’s razor-close at the top of the projections for wide receiver, with Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) projecting within a tenth of a point from the position leader Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900). It’s difficult to parse between the two, but their different play styles lend them each to a specific game type.
Chase is the high-ceiling GPP play, with an average depth of target (aDOT) of roughly nine yards last season. He gets plenty of short area work too, but his ceiling games come more from downfield catches than racking up tons of volume. After the Bengals fell on their face in Week 1, I expect an aggressive game plan from them offensively.
For cash games, St. Brown is the ultimate floor play. He trailed only Justin Jefferson in targets and receptions over the second half of last season and picked up right where he left off in Week 1 with a 28% target share. His piece of the pie is fairly secure, and it should be a bigger pie in Week 2.
I’d be happy to squeeze both receivers in contests of any size, but their salaries make it difficult. Chase is the better tournament play — except in lineups stacking the Lions-Seahawks game — while ASB is a cash game lock.
Value
Unlike last week, it’s much harder to find cheap wideouts worth rostering this week. Puka Nacua ($4,900) saw a massive salary spike after his Week 1 performance — but it could be justified.
He saw a ridiculous 15 targets last week, stepping in as a one-for-one replacement for Cooper Kupp. Matthew Stafford ($5,600) loves his slot receivers, and the 49ers pass rush means he’ll be looking for quick outlets all game.
While we can’t project a 10/119 line for Nacua again, he’d justify his salary at even half of that. This game sets up nicely for him with the Rams as big underdogs, and there should be plenty of passing volume.
Outside of Nacua, Jayden Reed ($3,700) of the Packers is a fringe option, especially for tournaments. He drew five targets on just 27 Packers pass attempts last week, catching two of them for 48 yards. His deep route tree is going to lead to some big scores and some stinkers, making him a tournament-only option.
Quick Hits
All of the receivers in the Jaguars-Chiefs game are interesting here. We already talked about the concentrated targets between Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, but it wouldn’t be a shock if Christian Kirk ($5,100) got involved here too. He drew 14 targets against the Chiefs in the playoffs last season — albeit without Ridley — and could pop up from time to time with some big games.
On the Kansas City side, somebody outside of Travis Kelce has to catch a pass for the Chiefs. We currently have non-zero projections on six different wideouts, all of whom are priced under $4,600. For deeper tournaments throwing a dart at one of them — or each of them in different lineups — isn’t a bad plan.
On that topic, what if Kadarius Toney ($4,600) gets a shot at redemption? He led the Kelce-less Chiefs in targets in Week 1, so he must be doing something right. Unlike carries, targets are earned, and it wouldn’t be outlandish if Andy Reid tried to get him involved early with some schemed looks to get his confidence back.
For years, picking between DK Metcalf ($7,000) and Tyler Lockett ($6,000) (or Doug Baldwin and Lockett before that) has been the weekly Sophie’s Choice of DFS. Now Seattle has added Jaxon Smith-Njibia ($4,500) to the mix. He stepped right in to tie Metcalf for the team lead in targets in Week 1.
I’m fairly confident that one of the Seattle receivers has a big game in Week 2. Which one is anyone’s guess, but I’ll be allocating a few rosters to each in my multi-entry play. I’ll be playing two of them in rosters that feature Geno Smith ($5,900) and one in rosters built around Goff and St. Brown.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
Last week was a weird one at tight end, with both Travis Kelce ($7,600) and Mark Andrews ($6,300) missing from the main slate. Now they’re both back, with Kelce as the clear top dog.
It was obvious how much the Chiefs missed Kelce last week. Their offense sputtered without him, as Mahomes wasn’t able to find a reliable receiver all game, and the Detroit defense played single cover while rushing the passer. That will change this week, with a likely Kelce-focused game plan.
He’s got the top game environment of the week, a presumably healthy knee, a new love interest, and the top projection in our (and everyone else’s) models. It’s a good time to be Travis Kelce and an even better time to roster him in DFS. There’s a clear gap between him and anyone else at the position, and he’s projecting for a higher score than any wide receiver this week.
Value
Can I say Kelce again? He’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection with a pair of cheaper options, both of whom are extremely speculative.
Chig Okonkwo ($3,300) put up a donut last week, failing to catch either of the two targets he drew. However, there’s more than meets the box score. On one of his failed targets, Okonkwo burned his defender on a go route but was overthrown by Ryan Tannehill ($5,000) on what would’ve been an easy touchdown.
Had he caught it, he would’ve easily paid off his salary on that one play. Just getting targeted on a deep ball is more than we get out of most tight ends in his salary range, so he’s an interesting option.
The other is Irv Smith Jr. ($3,200) of the Bengals. Smith turned five targets into three catches for 17 yards last week. He’s a classic “catch and fall” short area tight end who’s unlikely to put up a donut. He’s also unlikely to hit double figures unless he happens to catch and fall while standing in the end zone.
Given the Bengals’ other receiving threats, that’s fairly unlikely, but he’s a fine play if the goal is to just not tank the lineup. If you need three points from him, he’ll get you four, and if you need 10 points from him…he’ll get you four.
Quick Hits
Assuming he’s healthy, Andrews is an interesting pivot from Kelce at a significant salary and ownership discount. The Ravens passing game wasn’t exactly encouraging in Week 1, but they had a blowout against the Texans and no Andrews. He’s long been Lamar Jackson ($7,700)‘s favorite target, and we’re expecting more passing from Baltimore this year. And this week, they’re three-point underdogs against the Bengals.
Just below Andrews on the salary range is Darren Waller ($5,500). I expect most people to find the extra salary to afford Kelce if rostering players in this range, creating a value on Waller and Andrews. It’s hard to make any judgment about his fit in New York given how their Week 1 went, but he’s shown a massive ceiling in past years. Like Kansas City, the Giants are fairly thin at wide receiver and could center their passing attack around Waller.
Finally — stop me if you’ve heard this one before — I’ll be making a few lineups with Kyle Pitts ($4,200). We’ve moved into “post-post-hype breakout” territory with Pitts, but he caught two of three targets last week for 44 yards. His target share continues to be strong, but the Falcons are a run-first (and second and third) team. If the game environment forces them to the air at any point, it could finally be Pitts’ time.
Roster Construction
It’s a bit early in the news cycle to know for sure, but I’m guessing we’ll see some chalk form around Josh Kelley ($5,000) if Ekeler is, in fact, declared out. The week’s popular builds will probably include Kelley, one other cheap back (Montgomery or White), and a ton of salary for superstar “pass catchers.”
That includes McCaffrey and Kelce, as well as the top wide receivers at the position. All of the wideouts in the Seahawks-Lions and Chiefs-Jaguars game (with the exception of Chiefs receivers) should be popular, as well as Ja’Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs ($8,000).
For deeper tournaments, I’m OK with that general outline, but I will look to pivot in a few spots. If the ownership spikes on Kelley, I’m fine with a full fade on him. We’ve seen the Chargers split workloads two or three ways when Ekeler misses time in the past.
The real beneficiary of Ekeler being out could be the Chargers wideouts, especially Keenan Allen ($7,100). Just because they throw to Ekeler doesn’t mean they’ll throw it to any running back, and Allen should soak up much of the short area work.
I’m also looking to roster lesser-heralded pieces from the two games that stand out this week. Geno Smith of the Seahawks is my favorite of the bunch. He’s projecting at sub-5% ownership, and the Seahawks spread the ball enough that he could have a big day without bringing any — or just one — of his wide receivers with him. Plus, it’s easy to capture most of the Lions’ passing production with St. Brown as a bring-back.
Similarly, Lawrence and two of his pass catchers, plus Kelce coming back, should account for most of the scoring in that game. I’m less interested in Mahomes, as it’s hard to imagine him doing much non-Kelce scoring.
Baltimore-Cincinnati also has sneaky shootout potential, with some recency bias about the Bengals’ Week 1 stinker dragging the game total down. Burrow double stacks with Chase and Higgins plus Andrews coming back, or Lamar and Andrews with one or both Bengals wideouts could be an interesting pivot. Both quarterbacks are outside of the top tier of projected ownership.
Finally, don’t forget about McCaffrey and the rest of the 49ers. The Rams were surprisingly effective on offense last week, which could push the pace in this one. Most rosters this week will be paying up at receiver and down at running back, but flipping that with McCaffrey and some mid-priced wideouts is a solid option, too.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL Content.
Good luck this week!
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