As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players in the long term.
User “chaddeek” ran five lineups in the last Milly Maker of 2023, with one of them taking down the top prize with an almost 10-point margin of victory.
Let’s see how they did it below.
The Lineup
The Stack
There were plenty of viable quarterback — and thus stacking — options in Week 17. Five different quarterbacks projected for at least 20 DraftKings points in our models, with some cheaper options also projecting well relative to their salary. Picking between them was tough, but there was a strong case that the best game environment belonged to the Dolphins-Ravens game.
While I didn’t see a blowout for the Ravens coming, that’s what happened. Baltimore hung 56 points on the Dolphins, and quarterback Lamar Jackson scored nearly 40 DraftKings points. Less than four of those points were on the ground, so plenty of pass-catching options came along for the ride.
Jackson threw five passing touchdowns to four different players, with three of them scoring in the low 20s. Zay Flowers made it into this lineup, but Justice Hill and Isaiah Likely finished with similar scores at cheaper price tags, so it would’ve worked as well.
The more notable part of the stack was the lack of a bringback from the Dolphins’ side. While Dolphins pieces were expensive, conventional logic was that Baltimore wouldn’t put up week-winning production without Miami pushing the scoring.
Which obviously proved false, a trend we saw often in 2023.
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The Chalk
Just two members of this lineup came in at double-digit ownership. One, Flowers, was a part of the primary stack used. The other was the Giants’ Darius Slayton, who was played alongside teammate Wan’Dale Robinson. That combination likely had much lower ownership than either of their individual ownerships would suggest.
Both players projected among the better Pts/Sal options at receiver, with an expected boost from the return of Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. I liked the logic of playing them as one unit with a combined salary of $7,400, under the logic that one of them was likely to have a big day against a weak Rams defense.
I didn’t see both of them paying off, though, which is why I stayed away from the combination in larger-field tournaments. Which, evidently, was a mistake, as both players approached 20 DraftKings points. Given their salaries, that was a massive value.
The Sleepers
Most of this lineup falls into this category, with seven of the nine players coming in under 10% ownership. We’ve already touched on a few (Jackson, Robinson), but that’s just scratching the surface.
Travis Etienne was a fantastic play this week. He got lost in the shuffle among the high-end running backs but had about as perfect of a matchup as possible. I built heavily around him this week and was pleasantly surprised we didn’t see more lineups follow suit.
I didn’t have much interest in Kenneth Walker myself, but he was a solid mid-range pivot at $6,100 from the cheaper, chalkier backs. This lineup won more in spite of Walker than because of him, but he had a solid day and certainly didn’t detract too much.
Davante Adams was another player crowded out at his price range, with a handful of other receivers projecting slightly better. Adams blew them all away with a 13/126/2 line. I wish I’d seen that one coming. There’s always an argument on elite players at low ownership, of course, as someone like Adams can go off in any matchup.
Finally, George Kittle was massively ignored by the field this week. He was another player I was high on, though it obviously didn’t work out. This lineup would’ve still taken down the Milly Maker even with a 0 at tight end, though, so it didn’t much matter for chaddeek.
