NFL DFS Week 17 Main Slate Picks Breakdown: Load Up on Bears-Lions

NFL Week 17 features a 13-game main slate starting Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud

One game stands out a cut above the rest on Sunday. The Bears will travel to Detroit to take on the Lions, and the total sits at a whopping 52.5 points. No other game on this slate has a total above 48.0, and only one other contest is above 45.0. Both of these teams have had no problem putting points on the scoreboard recently, and both teams struggle on the defensive end.

Justin Fields is the more expensive of the two quarterbacks in this game, and he’s been outstanding for fantasy purposes of late. He struggled against the Bills’ excellent defense last week, but he had scored at least 21.26 DraftKings points in each of his previous seven games.

Fields’ biggest strength has been his rushing ability. Prior to last week’s contest, Fields had averaged more than 100 rushing yards in his previous eight contests, and he added seven rushing touchdowns. That kind of production is virtually unheard of at the quarterback position, and Fields still has an outside chance of passing Lamar Jackson for the QB single-season rushing record. He’s 195 yards behind him with two games to play, so he has some added motivation in this contest. The Lions allowed a ridiculous 320 rushing yards to the Panthers last week, so Fields should be able to do some damage in this spot.

Value

While Fields is the better ceiling play, Jared Goff stands out as the better per-dollar option in that contest. He leads all quarterbacks in terms of projected DraftKings Plus/Minus per THE BLITZ, and only Fields and Patrick Mahomes are projected for more median points at the position. Both players are significantly more expensive than Goff, so he’s the clear top choice for cash games.

Goff has turned in some excellent performances of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. That includes two performances with at least 29.1 DraftKings points in his past three contests, with the lone exception coming against the Jets’ elite passing defense.

It’s safe to say that the Bears are a much friendlier spot. They rank just 29th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and the Lions’ implied team total of 29.25 points is the top mark on the slate.

Quick Hits

There is no shortage of punt plays at quarterback this week, with multiple teams going to backups for one reason or another. Of the group, David Blough stands out as the best option in THE BLITZ. He’s been thoroughly unimpressive when given the chance to play previously, but he does draw an outstanding matchup vs. the Falcons. They rank 30th in pass defense DVOA, and Blough doesn’t need to do much to pay off his $4,000 salary.

Paying up at quarterback is always more viable on FanDuel than DraftKings given the extra salary, and Mahomes stands out as a strong option at $9,000. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%, and as usual, the Chiefs possess one of the top implied team totals of the week. His matchup vs. the Broncos isn’t ideal, but they might be checked out after surrendering 51 points to the Rams last week.

Can we go back to the man with the best mustache in the game? Matt Martin takes a look at Gardner Minshew in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.

NFL DFS Running Back Breakdown

Stud

It’s a great week to spend down at the position, but Christian McCaffrey stands out as an excellent option at the top of the pricing spectrum. He turned in a subpar performance vs. the Commanders last week, finishing with just 13.8 DraftKings points, but the Commanders have one of the best run defenses in football. The 49ers also cruised to a comfortable victory, which allowed Tyrion Davis-Price to get more work than usual down the stretch. TDP had nine carries last week, but four of them came on the team’s final drive.

There’s no guarantee that this week’s game vs. the Raiders is more competitive, but it is a much friendlier matchup. They’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position this season, and they’re dead last in pass defense DVOA vs. opposing running backs. McCaffrey is obviously one of the best pass-catching backs in football, so this matchup plays right into his skill set.

McCaffrey owns the top ceiling projection in THE BLITZ by more than four points, so very few players are capable of matching his upside.

Value

There are plenty of strong value options at the position, but Brian Robinson is my favorite. He’s been splitting the running back responsibilities with Antonio Gibson of late, but Gibson has been ruled out vs. the Browns with an injury. That opens up the possibility for more snaps and opportunities for Robinson. It remains to be seen how big of a bump he’ll get – Jonathan Williams will likely handle the pass-catching duties – but Robinson should see a few additional carries at a minimum.

That could pay huge dividends against the Browns. They’ve been one of the worst defenses in football against the run this season, ranking 30th in DVOA. The Commanders are also listed as two-point favorites, and like most running backs, Robinson has performed best as a favorite this season. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.99 in five previous opportunities, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them (per the Trends tool).

Robinson also stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Quick Hits

Miles Sanders is another player who should benefit from his team’s injury situation, albeit in a different way. Jalen Hurts will miss his second-straight game for the Eagles, and he’s been the team’s preferred goal line running back this season. With Hurts out of the lineup, Sanders has more scoring upside than usual, and he should continue to handle most of the carries in the team’s backfield.

Tyler Allgeier has taken over as the Falcons’ top running back, leading the team with 54% of the snaps and 49% of the rushing attempts over the past two weeks. He had 18 carries and five targets last week, and the Falcons run the ball as much as any team in football. They rank 31st in pass rate over expectation, and in a good matchup vs. the Cardinals, they should be able to lean heavily on Allgeier.

Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off one of his worst games of the season last week. Not only was he unproductive, but he also fumbled while the team was going in for a potential game-winning score. Add in his decision to start the laterals against the Raiders two weeks ago, and Stevenson might be the reason the Pats miss the playoffs. Still, he has one of the most appealing workloads in fantasy, combining a massive pass-catching role with plenty of touchdown upside. He’s an elite option this week on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.

Saquon Barkley has at least 20.5 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, but can he make it three in a row vs. the Colts? Matt Martin highlights the Giants’ star runner in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud

It’s been a few weeks, but we’re going back to Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 17. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, but he continues to command one of the largest target shares in football. He had a 32% target share last week vs. the Panthers, and he’s been targeted on 32.4% of his routes run this season. That’s the second-best mark among high-volume receivers, with only Tyreek Hill (34.3%) possessing a better mark.

The Bears stand out as an awesome spot for ARSB to bounce back. In addition to struggling against the pass in general, they’re also 31st in DVOA vs. No. 1 receivers specifically. Brown torched the Bears in their first meeting this season, turning 11 targets in 10 catches for 119 yards. If he can add a touchdown or two in Week 17, he has the potential for a massive outing.

Value

I’m not 100% sure why Brandin Cooks is back in the lineup for the Texans. He sat out for a few weeks after the team failed to trade him before the deadline, and he also missed a few weeks with an injury. However, he returned to the lineup last week vs. the Titans, and he stepped right back into a sizable role. He led the team with 27% of their targets and 43% of their air yards, and he also managed to find the end zone. He wasn’t super productive – he caught just four of his nine targets – but he still finished with 13.4 DraftKings points.

Cooks draws an outstanding matchup this week vs. the Jaguars. They’ve been a pass funnel this season, ranking 12th in rush defense DVOA but 31st against the pass, and Cooks has very little competition for targets. This game also means very little to the Jaguars, so there’s a chance that they pull some starters in the second half. That would make an already excellent matchup even better, so Cooks is underpriced at $4,800 on DraftKings.

Quick Hits

Drake London has plenty of talent as the No. 8 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, but the Falcons’ run-heavy offense has neutered him for most of the year. However, he has 32 targets over the past three games, and he’s scored at least 13.0 DraftKings points in all three contests. The Cardinals are just as bad against the pass as they are against the run, so London has the potential for another strong showing.

The Seahawks are fighting for their playoff lives, and it appears as though they’ll have Tyler Lockett back in the lineup vs. the Jets. The Jets are a very tough matchup, but their biggest weakness has been defending slot receivers. Lockett has played 42.1% of his snaps from the slot this season, so he could take over as the team’s top pass-catcher in this spot. Lockett is also an elite value on FanDuel, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

If you need to go even cheaper on DraftKings, Rashid Shaheed makes sense at just $4,000 on DraftKings. He’s displayed some big-play ability this season, and his role in the Saints’ passing attack has grown massively over the past two weeks. Chris Olave is expected to return to the lineup in Week 17, but Shaheed still had a 95% route participation, 21% target share, and 29% air yards share in his last game with Olave.

Do the Jets receivers deserve some consideration with Mike White back at quarterback? Matt Martin makes the case for Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud

Is the top of the tight end position starting to get a bit more crowded? Not really. Despite George Kittle’s best efforts, Travis Kelce still stands out as the clear top option if you’re paying up at the position. His median projection is nearly seven points higher than the rest of the tight ends on the main slate.

Kelce’s numbers have been slightly down of late, and the tight end is on an uncharacteristic scoreless streak. He’s failed to find the paint in four straight games, but fortunately, he’s made up for it with at least 105 receiving yards in his past two contests. That means he’s still managed to crack 20 DraftKings points without the benefit of a touchdown, which is something that no other tight end in football is really capable of at the moment.

Kelce draws a tough matchup this week vs. the Broncos, who were able to limit him to just four catches for 71 yards in their first meeting. However, the Broncos haven’t been quite as good against tight ends as they have been against receivers this season, so there’s no reason to be overly concerned. Kelce is also about as matchup-proof as it gets, and there’s more than enough value available to make paying up for Kelce very doable.

Value

There are a few different ways you can go if you’re not paying up for Kelce, but David Njoku stands out as the best per-dollar option per THE BLITZ. Njoku is one of the most underrated pass-catching tight ends in football, and he’s displayed solid chemistry with new quarterback DeShaun Watson. He’s posted a target share of at least 19% in three straight games, and he has a receiving touchdown with Watson under center as well.

Despite the score, Njoku has been slightly unlucky from a touchdown perspective this season. Pro Football Focus credits him with 4.8 expected receiving touchdowns, but he has just three actual scores. Overall, Njoku ranks eighth at the position in terms of expected DraftKings points per game. He’s just the 10th-most expensive option at tight end on the main slate, so he’s worth considering as a buy-low target.

Quick Hits

If you need to go even cheaper at tight end, Jelani Woods is an interesting option at $2,800. He saw a massive uptick in routes last week, and he was targeted on 23% of his routes run. Woods is an absolute monster at 6’7” and more than 250 pounds, making him a serious threat in the red zone.

With Deebo Samuel still out of the lineup, Kittle should continue to see an uptick in value. He posted a 100% route participation last week, and he’s had a target share of at least 21% in three straight games. Kittle is also one of the best big-play threats at tight end, so if anyone can match Kelce’s ceiling, it’s him.

Evan Engram has been fantastic for the Jaguars of late, and Matt Martin discusses his value in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.

NFL DFS Roster Construction

The optimal DraftKings lineup this week per THE BLITZ features a pretty balanced approach. It likes the idea of spending down at quarterback and tight end with Goff and Njoku, which allows you to focus most of your salary on your running backs and receivers.

At running back, it doesn’t recommend dipping too heavily into the value plays. Sanders, James Conner, and Kenneth Walker show up as the preferred options, and they rank first, sixth, and third, respectively, in projected Plus/Minus at the position.

That still leaves more than enough room to get in St. Brown at receiver, which is a clear priority on this slate.

If you are interested in exploring a Kelce build – and that’s something I’m definitely considering – you’ll have to take advantage of the value at running back and receiver. If you sacrifice Conner and Walker for Allgeier and Robinson, getting to Kelce is very doable. It will also require a slight downgrade at wide receiver, but going from someone like Wilson to London is perfectly fine.

The biggest sacrifice might actually be at defense. The 49ers Defense is going to be the mega chalk in cash games this week facing backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. However, it’s tough to fit them in alongside Kelce. You’ll have to go down a few hundred dollars to someone like the Packers, which is a scary proposition. The Packers actually grade out slightly better than the 49ers in terms of projected Plus/Minus, but if the 49ers hit their ceiling at massive ownership, it will be tough to overcome.

The biggest change on FanDuel is that Fields replaces Goff at quarterback. The two players are separated by just -$1,000 on FanDuel, so it’s much easier to lock the stud option into your lineup. Stevenson and Lockett also enter the fold at running back and receiver, while Cole Kmet gets the nod at tight end.

As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.

Make sure to also take advantage of all the excellent written content that will be produced prior to kickoff.

Good luck this week, and Happy Holidays!