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Week 17 Fantasy WR Breakdown: Julio Jones to Shipwreck Buccaneers

The Week 17 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 29, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are eight wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Michael Thomas: $9,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
  • Julio Jones: $8,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
  • DeAndre Hopkins: $7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
  • D.J. Moore: $6,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
  • Michael Gallup: $5,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
  • Christian Kirk: $4,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
  • Alex Erickson: $3,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
  • Jakobi Meyers: $3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel

Odds as of Friday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Michael Thomas: New Orleans Saints (-13) at Carolina Panthers, 46 Over/Under

In the 2019 playoff picture, the Saints have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, so they’re likely to play all of their starters as usual. Thomas (hand) is dealing with a minor injury, but he got in a limited practice on Wednesday and is fully expected to play.

Given the situation, Thomas is likely to get his regular usage, which means (as always) he’s an option for cash games and guaranteed prize pools.

Last week, he set a new NFL record with 145 receptions in a season, and he still has one game left to go: Thomas is playing at a historically elite level.

Thomas is No. 1 in the league with 176 targets, 145 receptions and 1,688 yards receiving. He’s easily the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 19.6 FanDuel points per game, and he has been a strong source of value with his +6.24 Plus/Minus.

He leads all receivers with a 70.4% catch rate on contested targets (per Player Profiler).

Wide receiver production can be volatile, but thanks to steady target volume, Thomas has been no worse than a high-end fantasy WR2 every week except for one (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

He has been especially unstoppable with quarterback Drew Brees. In eight of his nine full games this season with his starting quarterback, Thomas has 100-plus yards receiving.

With Brees, Thomas has averaged 20.7 FanDuel points on 12.3 targets per game this year.

Thomas is a matchup-proof player, so it almost doesn’t matter which team he’s playing, but Thomas has a winnable matchup this week. At a glance, it’s not good: The Panthers defense is No. 8 against the pass but No. 32 against the run in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). Thomas seems to be going against the flow of this funnel defense.

But since the Week 7 bye, the Panthers have been imminently beatable (per RotoViz Team Splits App).

  • Weeks 1-6 (six games): +5.5 point differential, 27.7 points scored, 22.2 points allowed
  • Weeks 8-16 (nine games): -14.6 point differential, 18.2 points scored, 32.8 points allowed

The Panthers have been destroyed on defense over the past two months, and if the Saints put up a lot of points, Thomas will almost certainly get his fantasy production.

And there’s no reason to think the Saints won’t score: They put up 34 against the Panthers in Week 12.

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13).

Thomas will likely see shadow coverage from No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry, but that’s not a big concern. Bradberry has good size and is a physical defender, but in Week 12, Thomas still had 101 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. Bradberry’s had as much success against Thomas as any other corner has, but ultimately that’s not saying much.

And last week, the Panthers benched No. 2 cornerback Donte Jackson, reportedly because interim head coach Perry Fewell didn’t like it that Jackson criticized him.

The Panthers are clearly not at their best.

From a betting perspective, I like the Saints this weekend. The Panthers have lost seven straight games. Last week, in third-string rookie quarterback Will Grier’s first NFL start, the Panthers suffered a pathetic 38-6 defeat to the mediocre Colts.

Opponents are 2-0-1 against the spread vs. the Fewell-led Panthers.

How have top-tier teams with something to play for historically done at the end of the season against bottom-feeder divisional rivals with limited motivation?

If we look at Week 17 divisional matchups between teams that are at least .650 and teams that are no greater than .350 — and if we exclude underdogs with strong records, since they are likely to be resting players — we get the answer: 21-14 ATS, good for an 18% return on investment (per our Bet Labs database).

For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Thomas with Brees. Over the past year, they’ve had a 0.53 correlation in production (per our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool). If Thomas has a big game, Brees probably will as well.

Baller that he is, Thomas easily leads all receivers with his median and ceiling projections in our Models and is the No. 1 option in the Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +4.09 Projected Plus/Minus and 99% Bargain Rating.

Thomas is also the No. 1 wide receiver in our Week 17 fantasy football rankings.

Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 45.5 O/U

Over the past two weeks, Julio has been without No. 2 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (abdomen, IR), and in his absence, he has exploded with a 23-300-2 receiving onslaught on 35 targets.

The only wide receivers on the team competing for targets with Jones are Russell Gage and Christian Blake, neither of whom opened the season as a starter. We shouldn’t expect Julio to get the 15-plus targets he’s seen in each of the past two games, but an eight-target minimum seems reasonable, and against the Bucs, that should be enough for Julio.

In his 15 career games against the division rival Bucs, Jones has averaged 117.5 yards and 0.73 touchdowns on 10.5 targets and 7.1 receptions per game. I tend not to put too much weight on player-vs.-team splits, but in the case of Julio and the Bucs, there really might be something there: The Bucs have been consistently bad for so long, and the Falcons know how best to attack them because they play each other two times per year.

This is such a good matchup for Julio: The Bucs have allowed a league-high 36.8 FanDuel points per game. They have a funnel defense ranked No. 1 in run defense DVOA but No. 15 in pass defense DVOA, so the Falcons should be incentivized to pass against the Bucs, and it’s not as if the Falcons need extra motivation to throw: They lead the league with a 67.1% pass play rate.

The Bucs have allowed the third-most air yards and yards after the catch combined (AirYAC) to opposing teams with 462.3 per game, and Julio is easily No. 1 on the slate with 153.4 AirYAC per game (per AirYards.com).

Cornerbacks Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting are not without promise, but they collectively form one of the league’s most inexperienced starting trios.

Smash city.

Admittedly, this season hasn’t been smooth for Julio. He has just as many games as a fantasy WR3 as a WR1.

He’s hit salary-based expectations in just 42.9% of his games. But Julio is the No. 4 fantasy wide receiver with 15.2 FanDuel points per game: He is still very much among the elite.

Perhaps no stat more clearly highlights his superiority than yards per route run (per Pro Football Focus).

  • 2019: 2.53 (3rd)
  • 2018: 2.93 (1st)
  • 2017: 3.08 (1st)
  • 2016: 3.12 (1st)
  • 2015: 3.04 (1st)
  • 2014: 2.72 (4th)
  • 2013: 2.75 (1st)

Since the Week 9 bye, Julio has averaged 100.7 yards per game and had eight-plus targets each week.

What’s not to like about Julio?

Julio is the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model for FanDuel, where he has a position-high eight Pro Trends.

DeAndre Hopkins: Houston Texans (+3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans, 45.5 O/U

I’m approaching Hopkins with cautious optimism. The Texans have no shot at getting a first-round bye, so it’s possible they could rest players in Week 17 — including Hopkins — but we’re not expecting that to happen.

I wouldn’t play Hopkins in cash games in case O’Brien changes his mind, but as of now, it looks like the Texans will play their starters per usual against the Titans, and that means Hopkins is an option in tournaments.

I expect this to be a relatively high-scoring game. The Texans have an explosive offense, and since quarterback Ryan Tannehill became the starter for the Titans in Week 7, they have put up points.

  • Tannehill’s starts (nine games): 29.9 points scored, 25 points allowed
  • Other starts (six games): 16.3 points scored, 15.3 points allowed

In Tannehill’s nine starts, the over is 8-1 (75.4% ROI).

Of course, the one under came in the Week 15 Titans-Texans game, which featured three potential-killing red-zone turnovers and a blocked field goal. Even so, that game still hit 45 points.

No. 2 wide receiver Will Fuller (hamstring) missed last week and is doubtful for this week. Some people might be more willing to invest in Hopkins because of Fuller’s absence — and they’re right to think that Hopkins will likely get more targets if Fuller is out — but historically it hasn’t mattered for Hopkins is Fuller active or not.

In quarterback Deshaun Watson’s 38 starts, Hopkins has been just barely more productive without Fuller.

  • Hopkins with Fuller at 0-49% snap rate (19 games): 20.8 DraftKings points, 11.0 targets, 7.7 receptions, 89.6 yards, 0.47 touchdowns, 3.4% snap rate for Fuller
  • Hopkins with Fuller at 50-100% snap rate (19 games): 20.6 DraftKings points, 9.2 targets, 6.1 receptions, 85.4 yards, 0.79 touchdowns, 88.8% snap rate for Fuller

If you want to roster Hopkins, go for it. Just don’t do let your reason be Fuller’s likely absence.

Far more important is the matchup. The Titans have a respectable defense, but it’s a funnel, ranking No. 6 in run defense DVOA but No. 20 in pass defense DVOA.

And they are likely worse in pass defense than that ranking indicates. No. 1 cornerback Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9, and since then the Titans have been No. 30 in opponent pass success rate (per Sharp Football Stats).

On top of that, No. 2 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (foot) exited Week 13 early with an injury and has missed the past three games. He is yet to practice this week and doesn’t seem close to returning.

If Jackson is out, Hopkins is likely to match up most with backup cornerback LeShaun Sims, who has allowed a 71.4% catch rate this year.

And when not facing Sims, Nuk will get aged perimeter corner Tramaine Brock, who was claimed off waivers just three weeks ago, and slot corner Logan Ryan, who has allowed an NFL-high 79 receptions and 932 yards.

Hopkins is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales Model for DraftKings.

D.J. Moore: Carolina Panthers (+13) vs. New Orleans Saints, 46 O/U

As of writing, Moore is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models for FanDuel, but by this weekend — after we’ve updated our projections — he won’t be at the top of any of our Pro Models.

Moore (concussion) suffered a head injury in Week 16 that forced him from the game, and he’s yet to return to practice. I doubt he plays in the meaningless season finale.

And if he does play, he’ll likely see shadow coverage from No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who has held opposing receivers to a catch rate of just 43.5% after a horrible first three weeks to the season.

“Steer clear, big tuna. Head for open waters.”

Michael Gallup: Dallas Cowboys (+11) vs. Washington Redskins, 45.5 O/U

Gallup has several factors in his favor this weekend.

The obvious one is his matchup: It’s fantastic. Just last week, the Redskins allowed 352 yards and five touchdowns receiving, and they are especially exploitable at cornerback.

They have benched No. 1 corner Josh Norman, who hasn’t played as a starter — or hardly at all — since Week 12. Perimeter corner Quinton Dunbar (hamstring, IR) and slot corner Jimmy Moreland (foot, IR) are out. And cornerback Fabian Moreau (hamstring) missed Week 16 and is yet to practice this week. He will likely miss Week 17.

Without their three starting corners, last week the Redskins went with journeymen third- and fourth-stringers Aaron Colvin, Kayvon Webster and Coty Sensabaugh at the position. It was the first start for each of them with the Redskins organization.

These guys are subpar on their own, and they have just one week’s worth of experience playing together. Wherever Gallup lines up, he will have a matchup he can win.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Michael Gallup

And the Redskins are highly motivated to lose: At 3-12, they are currently slated to get the No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft, but if they win, they could drop down in the order, and there’s a pretty big tier break between picks Nos. 2-3.

In full disclosure, I really don’t like the Cowboys this week from a betting perspective: Under HC Jason Garrett (since 2010), the Cowboys have a league-worst 20-36-1 ATS record as home favorites.

But the Cowboys are in a must-win game, so Gallup is likely to get his usual playing time, and in the eight games since the Week 8 bye, Gallup — not No. 1 wide receiver Amari Cooper — leads the team with 66 targets, 588 yards receiving and 1,025 AirYAC.

And he’s due for some positive touchdown regression. Even though he has 1,009 yards for the year, he has just three touchdowns. On average, one touchdown is scored for every 149.5 yards receiving in the NFL. This year, though, Gallup has one touchdown for every 336.3.

He should eventually enjoy a reversal in scoring fortune, and the Redskins are the type of team to give up points.

Gallup is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan Model for DraftKings.

Christian Kirk: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, Off the Board

As of writing, this game is off the board because quarterback Kyler Murray (hamstring) suffered a minor injury in Week 16. He got in limited practice sessions on Wednesday and Thursday yet is uncertain to play this week.

But while the game was still posted, I bet the Cardinals at +7.5: The Rams have officially been eliminated from the playoff race, and big organizational changes are expected this offseason. They are in disarray and have no real motivation for Week 17.

The Cardinals, though, are a young-and-hungry team with two straight wins and the desire to prove themselves. HC Kliff Kingsbury has flashed at points in his first year with the team, and as road dogs, his feisty Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS (52.8% ROI).

The Rams are reportedly thinking about resting some of their players in Week 17, so the matchup might be easier than usual, especially since shadow cornerback Jalen Ramsey (knee) is out and perimeter cornerback Troy Hill (thumb) missed last week and hasn’t returned to practice.

Kirk seems likely to face backups for the majority of his routes.

Against the Seahawks last week, Kirk had no receptions on five targets, and he’s scored in only one game this year. But since returning from injury in Week 8, he’s led the team with 61 targets, 37 receptions, 407 yards receiving, 777 AirYAC and three receiving touchdowns.

And Kirk hasn’t been cheaper than $4,700 on DraftKings since Week 2.

Kirk is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88, Raybon and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has position-high marks with a +2.76 Projected Plus/Minus and seven Pro Trends.

Alex Erickson: Cincinnati Bengals (PK) at Miami Dolphins, 46.5 O/U

Last week, the low-priced Erickson popped in one of our Pro Models, and then he had a tournament-winning performance.

Was there really anything all that special about Erickson’s 6-55-0 performance on nine targets? Amazingly, sort of. At his low salary and ownership rate, he provided enough production and lineup differentiation to give his daily fantasy backers an edge.

His matchup isn’t as good as it was last week, and he’s a little more expensive, but his investment thesis is pretty similar: He will be cheap and unpopular enough in tournaments to make a difference if he has even a decent game.

Since becoming a regular receiver in three-wide sets in Week 6, Erickson has been … not the worst receiver in the league.

There’s no denying that this guy has a six-foot underground floor: As a regular in three-wide sets, he has still had three games with fewer than 1.5 DraftKings points. He’s yet to score a touchdown this year.

But since Week 6, he’s averaged a manageable 45.1 yards on 6.5 targets, 3.5 receptions and 0.4 carries per game. It’s not as if he doesn’t have a ceiling: He’s hit 10 DraftKings points five times and 15 points twice. And Erickson is due for a change in scoring luck. With his usage and yardage, he should find the end zone eventually.

Against the Browns in Week 14, Erickson had an acceptable 10.5 DraftKings points.

I never thought I’d have to write about this guy in back-to-back main slates, but here we are: Week 17.

Erickson is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner Model for DraftKings, where he has a good 87% Bargain Rating.

Jakobi Meyers: New England Patriots (+16) vs. Miami Dolphins, 45 O/U

It’s all about the matchup: The Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 42.3 per game. They are utterly exploitable right now.

They have absolutely no continuity in the back half of their defense. Here’s how their secondary has changed from Week 1 to now.

  • Right cornerback: Xavien Howard –> Tae Hayes
  • Left cornerback: Eric Rowe –> Nik Needham
  • Slot cornerback: Minkah Fitzpatrick –> Nate Brooks
  • Strong safety: Reshad Jones –> Eric Rowe
  • Free safety: Bobby McCain –> Adrian Colbert

At corner, the Dolphins are starting three undrafted third- and fourth-string rookies. At safety, they’re using a converted perimeter corner who had never played the position till Week 6 and a third-year washout who wasn’t on the team till Week 12.

These guys give up more points than the Hufflepuff quidditch team.

Meyers is cheap at $3,300 on DraftKings, and he’s likely to have a sub-1% ownership rate. With his advantageous matchup, he might warrant 1-2 spots in 150-lineup multi-entry tournaments. The Patriots have a slate-high 30.5-point implied Vegas total.

Meyers is the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model for DraftKings, where he has an elite 96% Bargain Rating.

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($8,000 DK, $8,400 FD): Since returning from injury in Week 9, Adams has averaged 11.1 targets per game, and for the year. In his last games against the Lions — Week 5 of 2018 — Adams, balled out with 9-140-1 receiving on 12 targets. The Lions have allowed an NFL-high 476.4 AirYAC per game to opposing teams.

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,700 DK, $8,200 FD): In his 24 full games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Hill has averaged 20.9 DraftKings points, 95.0 yards and 0.83 touchdowns per game. Hill has a tough matchup against cornerbacks Casey Hayward Jr. and Desmond King II, but in his two divisional matchups with Mahomes against the Chargers, Hill has averaged 26.7 DraftKings points per game.

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($7,300 DK, $7,500 FD): Since Week 6, Edelman has averaged 18.1 DraftKings points and 10.5 targets across his 10 mostly Josh Gordon-less games. The Dolphins are No. 32 in PFF coverage grade and could be without slot cornerback Jomal Wiltz (shoulder), who exited Week 16 early.

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears ($7,200 DK, $7,800 FD): Across 10 games since the Week 6 bye, A-Rob has averaged 16.4 DraftKings points and 9.9 targets. The Vikings might rest key defenders because they are locked into a wildcard spot, and they have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 40.3 per game.

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($7,100 DK, $6,900 FD): In his six full games without teammate Preston Williams (knee, IR), Parker has accumulated a 34-637-5 receiving line on 63 targets and looked every bit like a No. 1 receiver. He has a horrible matchup against All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore, but with YOLO quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick’s willingness to target Parker repeatedly downfield, he might be able to break a long touchdown at reduced ownership.

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker (11).

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD): The first-year dominator is 21-481-4 receiving and 2-62-1 rushing in his five games since the Week 11 bye. In Week 15 against the Texans, Brown went off with an 8-114-1 receiving performance on 13 targets. Over the past decade, Odell Beckham Jr. and T.Y. Hilton are the only rookies to have more than Brown’s three 100-yard, one-touchdown games.

Breshad Perriman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,700 DK, $7,600 FD): Wide receivers Mike Evans (hamstring, IR), Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Scotty Miller (hamstring, IR) are out, and in his mostly Evans, Godwin & Miller-less games over the past three weeks, Perriman has averaged 96 yards and 1.33 touchdowns per game. The Falcons are No. 27 in PFF coverage grade and without No. 1 corner Desmond Trufant (arm, IR).

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,700 DK, $6,600 FD): Boyd is No. 7 in the league with 9.4 targets per game, and he’s coming off a big 9-128-2 receiving performance on 15 targets. Boyd had a respectable 82 yards against the Browns in Week 14.

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys ($6,500 DK, $7,500 FD): Cooper has just 43 scoreless yards over the past two games, but last week he had 12 targets, and their Redskins are down three starting cornerbacks. In his 11 games with the Cowboys as a home favorite, Cooper has averaged 27.5 DraftKings points per game with a +12.79 Plus/Minus and 90.9% Consistency Rating.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos ($6,400 DK, $7,100 FD): Sutton has averaged eight targets per game in quarterback Drew Lock’s four starts, and he had a 7-120-0 performance on eight targets against the Raiders in Week 1. The Raiders are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($6,300 DK, $7,400 FD): Despite playing with three different quarterbacks in an antiquated offense, Golladay is the only wide receiver this season with at least 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns receiving, and he’s No. 4 on the slate with 131.9 AirYAC per game. In Week 6, he was 5-121-0 receiving on nine targets against the Packers. Babytron is all grown up.

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants ($6,200 DK, $6,200 FD): Since returning from injury in Week 12, Shepard has averaged 7.8 targets per game, and over the past two weeks he’s averaged 93.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns against soft opponents. The Eagles are relatively soft, having allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers with 33.4.

Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns ($5,900 DK, $6,800 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Landry has averaged 17.1 DraftKings points on 9.8 targets per game. He had just 76 yards against the Bengals in Week 14, but they are No. 28 in pass defense DVOA.

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns ($5,700 DK, $6,600 FD): Beckham has just three touchdowns this year, but OBJ is still No. 9 in the league with 128.9 AirYAC per game. Beckham could have a sub-5% ownership rate, and he hasn’t been as cheap as $5,700 on DraftKings since Week 10 of his rookie season in 2014. For the Bengals, No. 1 cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR) is out, and No. 2 corner Willie Jackson (shoulder) exited Week 16 with an injury and is yet to practice this week.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD): Since running back Melvin Gordon returned from his holdout and Williams returned from injury in Week 5, Williams has 806 yards, two touchdowns and 2.06 yards per route on 70 targets while teammate Keenan Allen has 665 yards, two touchdowns and 1.69 yards per route on 92 targets. One day soon, the Chargers are likely to shift some of Allen’s targets to the more efficient and explosive Williams.

Justin Watson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,900 DK, $6,100 FD): Over the past three weeks, since breaking into three-wide sets, Watson has averaged 6.7 targets per game. A 2018 Ivy League fifth-rounder with an elite athletic profile, Watson dominated as a senior with 81-1,083-14 receiving, good for a 50.5% market share of receiving yards and 70% share of receiving touchdowns. In just three games, he’s had two fantasy WR2 performances.

Greg Ward Jr., Philadelphia Eagles ($4,700 DK, $5,600 FD): No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) is out for the year, and No. 2 wide receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) has missed the past three weeks and is yet to practice. In the Agholor-less and mostly Alshon-less Weeks 12 & 14-16, Ward has averaged 12.0 DraftKings points and 7.5 targets per game. The Giants have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to wide receivers with 42.3.

John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,500 DK, $5,200 FD): Last week, Ross finally functioned as a full-time player since returning from injury in Week 14, seeing 13 targets and a 79% snap rate. Ross is No. 5 in the league with 132 AirYAC per game. The sample is small, but Ross has been no worse than a fantasy WR2 in his three games with eight-plus targets.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Julio Jones
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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The Week 17 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 29, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are eight wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Michael Thomas: $9,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
  • Julio Jones: $8,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
  • DeAndre Hopkins: $7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
  • D.J. Moore: $6,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
  • Michael Gallup: $5,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
  • Christian Kirk: $4,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
  • Alex Erickson: $3,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
  • Jakobi Meyers: $3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel

Odds as of Friday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Michael Thomas: New Orleans Saints (-13) at Carolina Panthers, 46 Over/Under

In the 2019 playoff picture, the Saints have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, so they’re likely to play all of their starters as usual. Thomas (hand) is dealing with a minor injury, but he got in a limited practice on Wednesday and is fully expected to play.

Given the situation, Thomas is likely to get his regular usage, which means (as always) he’s an option for cash games and guaranteed prize pools.

Last week, he set a new NFL record with 145 receptions in a season, and he still has one game left to go: Thomas is playing at a historically elite level.

Thomas is No. 1 in the league with 176 targets, 145 receptions and 1,688 yards receiving. He’s easily the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 19.6 FanDuel points per game, and he has been a strong source of value with his +6.24 Plus/Minus.

He leads all receivers with a 70.4% catch rate on contested targets (per Player Profiler).

Wide receiver production can be volatile, but thanks to steady target volume, Thomas has been no worse than a high-end fantasy WR2 every week except for one (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

He has been especially unstoppable with quarterback Drew Brees. In eight of his nine full games this season with his starting quarterback, Thomas has 100-plus yards receiving.

With Brees, Thomas has averaged 20.7 FanDuel points on 12.3 targets per game this year.

Thomas is a matchup-proof player, so it almost doesn’t matter which team he’s playing, but Thomas has a winnable matchup this week. At a glance, it’s not good: The Panthers defense is No. 8 against the pass but No. 32 against the run in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). Thomas seems to be going against the flow of this funnel defense.

But since the Week 7 bye, the Panthers have been imminently beatable (per RotoViz Team Splits App).

  • Weeks 1-6 (six games): +5.5 point differential, 27.7 points scored, 22.2 points allowed
  • Weeks 8-16 (nine games): -14.6 point differential, 18.2 points scored, 32.8 points allowed

The Panthers have been destroyed on defense over the past two months, and if the Saints put up a lot of points, Thomas will almost certainly get his fantasy production.

And there’s no reason to think the Saints won’t score: They put up 34 against the Panthers in Week 12.

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13).

Thomas will likely see shadow coverage from No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry, but that’s not a big concern. Bradberry has good size and is a physical defender, but in Week 12, Thomas still had 101 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. Bradberry’s had as much success against Thomas as any other corner has, but ultimately that’s not saying much.

And last week, the Panthers benched No. 2 cornerback Donte Jackson, reportedly because interim head coach Perry Fewell didn’t like it that Jackson criticized him.

The Panthers are clearly not at their best.

From a betting perspective, I like the Saints this weekend. The Panthers have lost seven straight games. Last week, in third-string rookie quarterback Will Grier’s first NFL start, the Panthers suffered a pathetic 38-6 defeat to the mediocre Colts.

Opponents are 2-0-1 against the spread vs. the Fewell-led Panthers.

How have top-tier teams with something to play for historically done at the end of the season against bottom-feeder divisional rivals with limited motivation?

If we look at Week 17 divisional matchups between teams that are at least .650 and teams that are no greater than .350 — and if we exclude underdogs with strong records, since they are likely to be resting players — we get the answer: 21-14 ATS, good for an 18% return on investment (per our Bet Labs database).

For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Thomas with Brees. Over the past year, they’ve had a 0.53 correlation in production (per our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool). If Thomas has a big game, Brees probably will as well.

Baller that he is, Thomas easily leads all receivers with his median and ceiling projections in our Models and is the No. 1 option in the Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +4.09 Projected Plus/Minus and 99% Bargain Rating.

Thomas is also the No. 1 wide receiver in our Week 17 fantasy football rankings.

Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 45.5 O/U

Over the past two weeks, Julio has been without No. 2 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (abdomen, IR), and in his absence, he has exploded with a 23-300-2 receiving onslaught on 35 targets.

The only wide receivers on the team competing for targets with Jones are Russell Gage and Christian Blake, neither of whom opened the season as a starter. We shouldn’t expect Julio to get the 15-plus targets he’s seen in each of the past two games, but an eight-target minimum seems reasonable, and against the Bucs, that should be enough for Julio.

In his 15 career games against the division rival Bucs, Jones has averaged 117.5 yards and 0.73 touchdowns on 10.5 targets and 7.1 receptions per game. I tend not to put too much weight on player-vs.-team splits, but in the case of Julio and the Bucs, there really might be something there: The Bucs have been consistently bad for so long, and the Falcons know how best to attack them because they play each other two times per year.

This is such a good matchup for Julio: The Bucs have allowed a league-high 36.8 FanDuel points per game. They have a funnel defense ranked No. 1 in run defense DVOA but No. 15 in pass defense DVOA, so the Falcons should be incentivized to pass against the Bucs, and it’s not as if the Falcons need extra motivation to throw: They lead the league with a 67.1% pass play rate.

The Bucs have allowed the third-most air yards and yards after the catch combined (AirYAC) to opposing teams with 462.3 per game, and Julio is easily No. 1 on the slate with 153.4 AirYAC per game (per AirYards.com).

Cornerbacks Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting are not without promise, but they collectively form one of the league’s most inexperienced starting trios.

Smash city.

Admittedly, this season hasn’t been smooth for Julio. He has just as many games as a fantasy WR3 as a WR1.

He’s hit salary-based expectations in just 42.9% of his games. But Julio is the No. 4 fantasy wide receiver with 15.2 FanDuel points per game: He is still very much among the elite.

Perhaps no stat more clearly highlights his superiority than yards per route run (per Pro Football Focus).

  • 2019: 2.53 (3rd)
  • 2018: 2.93 (1st)
  • 2017: 3.08 (1st)
  • 2016: 3.12 (1st)
  • 2015: 3.04 (1st)
  • 2014: 2.72 (4th)
  • 2013: 2.75 (1st)

Since the Week 9 bye, Julio has averaged 100.7 yards per game and had eight-plus targets each week.

What’s not to like about Julio?

Julio is the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model for FanDuel, where he has a position-high eight Pro Trends.

DeAndre Hopkins: Houston Texans (+3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans, 45.5 O/U

I’m approaching Hopkins with cautious optimism. The Texans have no shot at getting a first-round bye, so it’s possible they could rest players in Week 17 — including Hopkins — but we’re not expecting that to happen.

I wouldn’t play Hopkins in cash games in case O’Brien changes his mind, but as of now, it looks like the Texans will play their starters per usual against the Titans, and that means Hopkins is an option in tournaments.

I expect this to be a relatively high-scoring game. The Texans have an explosive offense, and since quarterback Ryan Tannehill became the starter for the Titans in Week 7, they have put up points.

  • Tannehill’s starts (nine games): 29.9 points scored, 25 points allowed
  • Other starts (six games): 16.3 points scored, 15.3 points allowed

In Tannehill’s nine starts, the over is 8-1 (75.4% ROI).

Of course, the one under came in the Week 15 Titans-Texans game, which featured three potential-killing red-zone turnovers and a blocked field goal. Even so, that game still hit 45 points.

No. 2 wide receiver Will Fuller (hamstring) missed last week and is doubtful for this week. Some people might be more willing to invest in Hopkins because of Fuller’s absence — and they’re right to think that Hopkins will likely get more targets if Fuller is out — but historically it hasn’t mattered for Hopkins is Fuller active or not.

In quarterback Deshaun Watson’s 38 starts, Hopkins has been just barely more productive without Fuller.

  • Hopkins with Fuller at 0-49% snap rate (19 games): 20.8 DraftKings points, 11.0 targets, 7.7 receptions, 89.6 yards, 0.47 touchdowns, 3.4% snap rate for Fuller
  • Hopkins with Fuller at 50-100% snap rate (19 games): 20.6 DraftKings points, 9.2 targets, 6.1 receptions, 85.4 yards, 0.79 touchdowns, 88.8% snap rate for Fuller

If you want to roster Hopkins, go for it. Just don’t do let your reason be Fuller’s likely absence.

Far more important is the matchup. The Titans have a respectable defense, but it’s a funnel, ranking No. 6 in run defense DVOA but No. 20 in pass defense DVOA.

And they are likely worse in pass defense than that ranking indicates. No. 1 cornerback Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9, and since then the Titans have been No. 30 in opponent pass success rate (per Sharp Football Stats).

On top of that, No. 2 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (foot) exited Week 13 early with an injury and has missed the past three games. He is yet to practice this week and doesn’t seem close to returning.

If Jackson is out, Hopkins is likely to match up most with backup cornerback LeShaun Sims, who has allowed a 71.4% catch rate this year.

And when not facing Sims, Nuk will get aged perimeter corner Tramaine Brock, who was claimed off waivers just three weeks ago, and slot corner Logan Ryan, who has allowed an NFL-high 79 receptions and 932 yards.

Hopkins is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales Model for DraftKings.

D.J. Moore: Carolina Panthers (+13) vs. New Orleans Saints, 46 O/U

As of writing, Moore is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models for FanDuel, but by this weekend — after we’ve updated our projections — he won’t be at the top of any of our Pro Models.

Moore (concussion) suffered a head injury in Week 16 that forced him from the game, and he’s yet to return to practice. I doubt he plays in the meaningless season finale.

And if he does play, he’ll likely see shadow coverage from No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who has held opposing receivers to a catch rate of just 43.5% after a horrible first three weeks to the season.

“Steer clear, big tuna. Head for open waters.”

Michael Gallup: Dallas Cowboys (+11) vs. Washington Redskins, 45.5 O/U

Gallup has several factors in his favor this weekend.

The obvious one is his matchup: It’s fantastic. Just last week, the Redskins allowed 352 yards and five touchdowns receiving, and they are especially exploitable at cornerback.

They have benched No. 1 corner Josh Norman, who hasn’t played as a starter — or hardly at all — since Week 12. Perimeter corner Quinton Dunbar (hamstring, IR) and slot corner Jimmy Moreland (foot, IR) are out. And cornerback Fabian Moreau (hamstring) missed Week 16 and is yet to practice this week. He will likely miss Week 17.

Without their three starting corners, last week the Redskins went with journeymen third- and fourth-stringers Aaron Colvin, Kayvon Webster and Coty Sensabaugh at the position. It was the first start for each of them with the Redskins organization.

These guys are subpar on their own, and they have just one week’s worth of experience playing together. Wherever Gallup lines up, he will have a matchup he can win.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Michael Gallup

And the Redskins are highly motivated to lose: At 3-12, they are currently slated to get the No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft, but if they win, they could drop down in the order, and there’s a pretty big tier break between picks Nos. 2-3.

In full disclosure, I really don’t like the Cowboys this week from a betting perspective: Under HC Jason Garrett (since 2010), the Cowboys have a league-worst 20-36-1 ATS record as home favorites.

But the Cowboys are in a must-win game, so Gallup is likely to get his usual playing time, and in the eight games since the Week 8 bye, Gallup — not No. 1 wide receiver Amari Cooper — leads the team with 66 targets, 588 yards receiving and 1,025 AirYAC.

And he’s due for some positive touchdown regression. Even though he has 1,009 yards for the year, he has just three touchdowns. On average, one touchdown is scored for every 149.5 yards receiving in the NFL. This year, though, Gallup has one touchdown for every 336.3.

He should eventually enjoy a reversal in scoring fortune, and the Redskins are the type of team to give up points.

Gallup is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan Model for DraftKings.

Christian Kirk: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, Off the Board

As of writing, this game is off the board because quarterback Kyler Murray (hamstring) suffered a minor injury in Week 16. He got in limited practice sessions on Wednesday and Thursday yet is uncertain to play this week.

But while the game was still posted, I bet the Cardinals at +7.5: The Rams have officially been eliminated from the playoff race, and big organizational changes are expected this offseason. They are in disarray and have no real motivation for Week 17.

The Cardinals, though, are a young-and-hungry team with two straight wins and the desire to prove themselves. HC Kliff Kingsbury has flashed at points in his first year with the team, and as road dogs, his feisty Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS (52.8% ROI).

The Rams are reportedly thinking about resting some of their players in Week 17, so the matchup might be easier than usual, especially since shadow cornerback Jalen Ramsey (knee) is out and perimeter cornerback Troy Hill (thumb) missed last week and hasn’t returned to practice.

Kirk seems likely to face backups for the majority of his routes.

Against the Seahawks last week, Kirk had no receptions on five targets, and he’s scored in only one game this year. But since returning from injury in Week 8, he’s led the team with 61 targets, 37 receptions, 407 yards receiving, 777 AirYAC and three receiving touchdowns.

And Kirk hasn’t been cheaper than $4,700 on DraftKings since Week 2.

Kirk is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88, Raybon and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has position-high marks with a +2.76 Projected Plus/Minus and seven Pro Trends.

Alex Erickson: Cincinnati Bengals (PK) at Miami Dolphins, 46.5 O/U

Last week, the low-priced Erickson popped in one of our Pro Models, and then he had a tournament-winning performance.

Was there really anything all that special about Erickson’s 6-55-0 performance on nine targets? Amazingly, sort of. At his low salary and ownership rate, he provided enough production and lineup differentiation to give his daily fantasy backers an edge.

His matchup isn’t as good as it was last week, and he’s a little more expensive, but his investment thesis is pretty similar: He will be cheap and unpopular enough in tournaments to make a difference if he has even a decent game.

Since becoming a regular receiver in three-wide sets in Week 6, Erickson has been … not the worst receiver in the league.

There’s no denying that this guy has a six-foot underground floor: As a regular in three-wide sets, he has still had three games with fewer than 1.5 DraftKings points. He’s yet to score a touchdown this year.

But since Week 6, he’s averaged a manageable 45.1 yards on 6.5 targets, 3.5 receptions and 0.4 carries per game. It’s not as if he doesn’t have a ceiling: He’s hit 10 DraftKings points five times and 15 points twice. And Erickson is due for a change in scoring luck. With his usage and yardage, he should find the end zone eventually.

Against the Browns in Week 14, Erickson had an acceptable 10.5 DraftKings points.

I never thought I’d have to write about this guy in back-to-back main slates, but here we are: Week 17.

Erickson is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner Model for DraftKings, where he has a good 87% Bargain Rating.

Jakobi Meyers: New England Patriots (+16) vs. Miami Dolphins, 45 O/U

It’s all about the matchup: The Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 42.3 per game. They are utterly exploitable right now.

They have absolutely no continuity in the back half of their defense. Here’s how their secondary has changed from Week 1 to now.

  • Right cornerback: Xavien Howard –> Tae Hayes
  • Left cornerback: Eric Rowe –> Nik Needham
  • Slot cornerback: Minkah Fitzpatrick –> Nate Brooks
  • Strong safety: Reshad Jones –> Eric Rowe
  • Free safety: Bobby McCain –> Adrian Colbert

At corner, the Dolphins are starting three undrafted third- and fourth-string rookies. At safety, they’re using a converted perimeter corner who had never played the position till Week 6 and a third-year washout who wasn’t on the team till Week 12.

These guys give up more points than the Hufflepuff quidditch team.

Meyers is cheap at $3,300 on DraftKings, and he’s likely to have a sub-1% ownership rate. With his advantageous matchup, he might warrant 1-2 spots in 150-lineup multi-entry tournaments. The Patriots have a slate-high 30.5-point implied Vegas total.

Meyers is the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model for DraftKings, where he has an elite 96% Bargain Rating.

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($8,000 DK, $8,400 FD): Since returning from injury in Week 9, Adams has averaged 11.1 targets per game, and for the year. In his last games against the Lions — Week 5 of 2018 — Adams, balled out with 9-140-1 receiving on 12 targets. The Lions have allowed an NFL-high 476.4 AirYAC per game to opposing teams.

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,700 DK, $8,200 FD): In his 24 full games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Hill has averaged 20.9 DraftKings points, 95.0 yards and 0.83 touchdowns per game. Hill has a tough matchup against cornerbacks Casey Hayward Jr. and Desmond King II, but in his two divisional matchups with Mahomes against the Chargers, Hill has averaged 26.7 DraftKings points per game.

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($7,300 DK, $7,500 FD): Since Week 6, Edelman has averaged 18.1 DraftKings points and 10.5 targets across his 10 mostly Josh Gordon-less games. The Dolphins are No. 32 in PFF coverage grade and could be without slot cornerback Jomal Wiltz (shoulder), who exited Week 16 early.

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears ($7,200 DK, $7,800 FD): Across 10 games since the Week 6 bye, A-Rob has averaged 16.4 DraftKings points and 9.9 targets. The Vikings might rest key defenders because they are locked into a wildcard spot, and they have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 40.3 per game.

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($7,100 DK, $6,900 FD): In his six full games without teammate Preston Williams (knee, IR), Parker has accumulated a 34-637-5 receiving line on 63 targets and looked every bit like a No. 1 receiver. He has a horrible matchup against All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore, but with YOLO quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick’s willingness to target Parker repeatedly downfield, he might be able to break a long touchdown at reduced ownership.

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker (11).

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD): The first-year dominator is 21-481-4 receiving and 2-62-1 rushing in his five games since the Week 11 bye. In Week 15 against the Texans, Brown went off with an 8-114-1 receiving performance on 13 targets. Over the past decade, Odell Beckham Jr. and T.Y. Hilton are the only rookies to have more than Brown’s three 100-yard, one-touchdown games.

Breshad Perriman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,700 DK, $7,600 FD): Wide receivers Mike Evans (hamstring, IR), Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Scotty Miller (hamstring, IR) are out, and in his mostly Evans, Godwin & Miller-less games over the past three weeks, Perriman has averaged 96 yards and 1.33 touchdowns per game. The Falcons are No. 27 in PFF coverage grade and without No. 1 corner Desmond Trufant (arm, IR).

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,700 DK, $6,600 FD): Boyd is No. 7 in the league with 9.4 targets per game, and he’s coming off a big 9-128-2 receiving performance on 15 targets. Boyd had a respectable 82 yards against the Browns in Week 14.

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys ($6,500 DK, $7,500 FD): Cooper has just 43 scoreless yards over the past two games, but last week he had 12 targets, and their Redskins are down three starting cornerbacks. In his 11 games with the Cowboys as a home favorite, Cooper has averaged 27.5 DraftKings points per game with a +12.79 Plus/Minus and 90.9% Consistency Rating.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos ($6,400 DK, $7,100 FD): Sutton has averaged eight targets per game in quarterback Drew Lock’s four starts, and he had a 7-120-0 performance on eight targets against the Raiders in Week 1. The Raiders are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($6,300 DK, $7,400 FD): Despite playing with three different quarterbacks in an antiquated offense, Golladay is the only wide receiver this season with at least 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns receiving, and he’s No. 4 on the slate with 131.9 AirYAC per game. In Week 6, he was 5-121-0 receiving on nine targets against the Packers. Babytron is all grown up.

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants ($6,200 DK, $6,200 FD): Since returning from injury in Week 12, Shepard has averaged 7.8 targets per game, and over the past two weeks he’s averaged 93.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns against soft opponents. The Eagles are relatively soft, having allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers with 33.4.

Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns ($5,900 DK, $6,800 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Landry has averaged 17.1 DraftKings points on 9.8 targets per game. He had just 76 yards against the Bengals in Week 14, but they are No. 28 in pass defense DVOA.

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns ($5,700 DK, $6,600 FD): Beckham has just three touchdowns this year, but OBJ is still No. 9 in the league with 128.9 AirYAC per game. Beckham could have a sub-5% ownership rate, and he hasn’t been as cheap as $5,700 on DraftKings since Week 10 of his rookie season in 2014. For the Bengals, No. 1 cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR) is out, and No. 2 corner Willie Jackson (shoulder) exited Week 16 with an injury and is yet to practice this week.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD): Since running back Melvin Gordon returned from his holdout and Williams returned from injury in Week 5, Williams has 806 yards, two touchdowns and 2.06 yards per route on 70 targets while teammate Keenan Allen has 665 yards, two touchdowns and 1.69 yards per route on 92 targets. One day soon, the Chargers are likely to shift some of Allen’s targets to the more efficient and explosive Williams.

Justin Watson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,900 DK, $6,100 FD): Over the past three weeks, since breaking into three-wide sets, Watson has averaged 6.7 targets per game. A 2018 Ivy League fifth-rounder with an elite athletic profile, Watson dominated as a senior with 81-1,083-14 receiving, good for a 50.5% market share of receiving yards and 70% share of receiving touchdowns. In just three games, he’s had two fantasy WR2 performances.

Greg Ward Jr., Philadelphia Eagles ($4,700 DK, $5,600 FD): No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) is out for the year, and No. 2 wide receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) has missed the past three weeks and is yet to practice. In the Agholor-less and mostly Alshon-less Weeks 12 & 14-16, Ward has averaged 12.0 DraftKings points and 7.5 targets per game. The Giants have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to wide receivers with 42.3.

John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,500 DK, $5,200 FD): Last week, Ross finally functioned as a full-time player since returning from injury in Week 14, seeing 13 targets and a 79% snap rate. Ross is No. 5 in the league with 132 AirYAC per game. The sample is small, but Ross has been no worse than a fantasy WR2 in his three games with eight-plus targets.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Julio Jones
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.