The Week 17 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 29, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Travis Kelce: $7,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
- Austin Hooper: $5,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
- Tyler Higbee: $5,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
- Noah Fant: $3,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Travis Kelce: Kansas City Chiefs (-9) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 45.5 Over/Under
I’m not a huge fan of this spot for Kelce for two main reasons.
First, Kelce has a tough matchup. All-Pro strong safety Derwin James returned from injury in Week 13, and in his four games back, he’s been his usual lockdown self, allowing just four yards on six targets.
Last year as a rookie, James had a top-three safety coverage grade in a full season of action (per Pro Football Focus), and the Chargers were No. 1 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends (per Football Outsiders).
Last year in two games against James and the Chargers, Kelce averaged 5.4 FanDuel points and 33.5 yards on 7.5 targets and four receptions per game.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Travis Kelce and Derwin James
This will probably be the hardest matchup of Kelce’s season.
And from a betting perspective, I like the Chiefs-Chargers under. Under head coach Andy Reid (since 2013), the Chiefs have actually scored 2.9 fewer points at home than on the road. That’s easily the most negative home/away offensive scoring differential in the league.
In fact, Chiefs games have an NFL-worst home/away total differential of -7.8 points. In Kansas City, NFL games rank No. 27 with a mere 43.3 points. On the road, Chiefs games blow out with 51.0 points, the No. 2 mark in the league.
Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to score, for both the home and visiting teams.
In the Reid era, no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 36-21-1 under record, good for a 23% return on investment (including playoffs, per our Bet Labs database).
And I don’t like the idea of investing in Kelce if I’m looking to the under.
But there are also clear reasons to like him: After a somewhat slow start to the year, Kelce is No. 1 at the position with 13.5 FanDuel points and 106.3 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (AirYAC, per AirYards.com).
Kelce has been a fantasy TE1 in every week but one (per the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
Since the Week 12 bye, he has 10 targets per game. Even with his tough matchup, Kelce has position-high median and ceiling projections in our Models.
Over the past half decade, Kelce has had a 0.77 correlation with his quarterback (per our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool). If Kelce has a big game, Patrick Mahomes probably will too. For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack Kelce with his quarterback.
Kelce is the No. 1 tight end in the SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.
Of all the tights end on the slate, Kelce is No. 1 in our Week 17 fantasy football rankings.
Austin Hooper: Atlanta Falcons (PK) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 48 O/U
Since returning from injury in Week 14, Hooper has averaged just 6.5 FanDuel points and a scoreless 44.7 yards per game.
That’s not a lot to be excited about.
But for most of the season, Hooper has been a solid fantasy TE1.
And last week, Hooper had nine targets. No. 2 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (abdomen, IR) is out, so Hooper seems likely to get regular usage.
For the year, Hooper is the No. 3 fantasy tight end with 12.2 FanDuel points per game, and he’s No. 8 with 76.7 AirYAC per game.
Priced as the No. 8 tight end on FanDuel at $6,000, Hooper is simply way too cheap, especially with on a slate without high-scoring tight ends George Kittle (Sunday Night Football) and Evan Engram (foot, IR).
And the matchup is good. The Bucs have been without free safety Justin Evans (Achilles, IR) all year, and strong safety Jordan Whitehead (hamstring, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 16.
The Bucs have the seventh-most FanDuel points to tight ends with 11.3 per game and are No. 23 in pass defense DVOA against the position. The four tight ends similar to Hooper in salary and role to face the Bucs this year — George Kittle, Evan Engram, Jared Cook (twice) and Greg Olsen (twice) — have averaged 12.2 FanDuel points per game.
An option for cash games and guaranteed prize pools alike, Hooper is the No. 1 tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner and Raybon Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +2.83 Projected Plus/Minus and 99% Bargain Rating.
Tyler Higbee: Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals, Off the Board
As of writing, this game is off the board because quarterback Kyler Murray (hamstring) suffered a minor injury in Week 16. He got in limited practice sessions on Wednesday and Thursday yet is uncertain to play.
But while the game was still posted, I bet the Cardinals at +7.5: The Rams have officially been eliminated from the playoff race, and big organizational changes are expected this offseason. They are in disarray and have no real motivation for Week 17. They reportedly are thinking about resting some of their starters.
But I’m approaching Higbee with cautious optimism. He is fully healthy and has no reason to rest, and he’s been the No. 1 fantasy tight end with 24.2 DraftKings points per game since filling in for injured teammate Gerald Everett in Week 13.
Even though Everett returned to action last week, he played only four snaps and saw just one target. Higbee has straight-up stolen Everett’s job.
Over the past month, Higbee has had 100-plus yards and eight-plus targets in each week. He’s gone full Kelce Mode with his average of 109.5 yards and 0.25 touchdowns on 11 targets and 8.8 receptions per game in December.
And his matchup is glorious. The Cardinals have allowed an NFL-high 19.6 DraftKings points, 1,062 yards and 15 touchdowns to tight ends and are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against the position
The Cardinals pretty much make opposing tight ends look like 2014 Rob Gronkowski.
Against the Cardinals in Week 13, Higbee was 7-107-1 receiving on eight targets.
Long live the Flow Chart.
Higbee is the No. 1 tight end in the Bales, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has position-high marks with a +3.24 Projected Plus/Minus and seven Pro Trends.
Noah Fant: Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Oakland Raiders, 41 O/U
I wouldn’t touch Fant in cash games, but he’s an option in tournaments.
Since the Broncos traded wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in Week 8, Fant has averaged 10.2 DraftKings points and five targets per game. He’s put up two 100-yard performances and been no worse than a fantasy TE2 in six of eight games.
Priced as the No. 16 tight end in salary at $3,600 on DraftKings, Fant is probably too cheap for the upside he has.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Noah Fant
The athletic-move tight ends comparable to Fant in role, and possibly talent, to play the Raiders this year — Travis Kelce (twice), Hunter Henry (twice), Eric Ebron, Jonnu Smith — have averaged 14.5 DraftKings points per game against them.
I don’t expect Fant to be popular after his 10-yard output last week, and he might have a lower ownership rate than usual because he’s playing opposite tight end Darren Waller. If daily fantasy investors get exposure to the Broncos-Raiders game, many of them probably won’t have Fant in mind.
Fant is the No. 1 tight end in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, where he has a strong 92% Bargain Rating.
Upside Tight Ends for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Darren Waller, Oakland Raiders ($5,400 DK, $6,200 FD): For the year, Waller is No. 5 at the position with 14.5 DraftKings points and 84.5 AirYAC per game. In his first season as a full-time tight end, Waller leads the Raiders with 107 targets, 84 receptions, 1,038 yards receiving and 1,268 AirYAC. Against the Chiefs in Week 2, Waller had a respectable 12.3 DraftKings points.
Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints ($5,200 DK, $6,800 FD): Cook was dreadful for the first month of the season, and he missed Weeks 7-8 to injury, but since Week 5, Cook has averaged 15.3 DraftKings points per game and been a fantasy TE1 in every game played. Against the Panthers in Week 12, Cook was 6-99-1 receiving on eight targets.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles ($4,900 DK, $6,400 FD): No. 1 tight end Zach Ertz (ribs, back), No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) and No. 2 wide receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) are all out, so Goedert might be the team’s primary receiving option. A top-tier prospect who probably should have been a first-round pick, Goedert is coming into his own in his second season. Since the Week 10 bye, Goedert has averaged 12.7 DraftKings points on 7.5 targets per game. The Giants are without starting strong safety Jabrill Peppers (back, IR). Goedert will be chalky.
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,500 DK, $6,000 FD): With just 123 yards on 16 targets over the past four weeks, Henry is in something of a slump, but he is still No. 6 at the position with 82.6 AirYAC per game. Against the Chiefs in Week 11, Henry was 6-69-0 receiving on nine targets.
Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans ($4,200 DK, $5,800 FD): Since starter Delanie Walker (ankle, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7, Smith has produced four fantasy TE1 games, one of which was against the Texans in Week 15. He hasn’t been rostered above 2.0% on the main slate since the Week 11 bye, and that’s too low for a player with his talent, playing time and 180 yards and two touchdowns over the past two weeks.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins ($4,000 DK, $5,900 FD): In his seven games without wide receiver Preston Williams (knee, IR), Gesicki has averaged 7.3 targets per game and racked up three fantasy TE1 showings. The Patriots are No. 5 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends, but Gesicki had a season-high 12 targets last week, and he will likely have a sub-5% ownership rate because of the matchup.
Kaden Smith, New York Giants ($3,700 DK, $5,300 FD): Starter Evan Engram (foot, IR) and backup Rhett Ellison (concussion, IR) are out, so Smith once again will play with the first-team offense. In his five games filling in for Engram and Ellison, Smith has averaged 11.4 DraftKings points on six targets per game with three fantasy TE1 performances.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Tyler Higbee
Photo credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
