The NFL season is approaching the finish line, as Week 17 is upon us. As usual, DraftKings is opening contests and releasing salaries for the week ahead on Sunday evening. In the fast-changing landscape of the NFL, that leaves plenty of time for obvious value to appear.
Let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 17, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently. Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
For full access to our models, you’ll need to sign up for a FantasyLabs subscription:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jared Goff ($5,600) Detroit Lions (-6) vs. Chicago Bears (52 total)
Goff is a near-lock in cash games and small-field tournaments this week, as he’s still just $5,600 despite a matchup at home with the Bears. Goff was a far better fantasy quarterback than a real one last week, as he scored 29 DraftKings points in a blowout loss to the Panthers.
It’s fairly well established at this point that Goff is far better in warm weather/home games than he is in tougher conditions. Per our Trends Tool, here are his splits with the Lions:
The effect is present during his time with the Rams, too, though it’s less stark. That’s probably a result of the Rams’ divisional opponents being primarily warm-weather teams as well, whereas Goff has had to play in tougher conditions since moving to the NFC North.
Either way, it’s an excellent spot in a must-win game for Goff and the Lions. Chicago has the league’s 29th-ranked pass defense by DVOA, and the Lions are implied for the second-most points on the slate. They narrowly trail the Chiefs, but Patrick Mahomes ($8,500) costs nearly $3,000 more.
Goff is the clear leader in Pts/Sal projection this week and should be a popular play.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Garrett Wilson ($5,500) New York Jets (-2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (42.5 total)
Two weeks of a Zach Wilson-led Jets offense has given us a solid discount on Garret Wilson. His salary had climbed to $6,000 prior to White missing time with an injury, but two disappointing days with Zach at quarterback has knocked it back down.
Wilson was on a tear with White under center, averaging more than 22 points in three games. Discounting a tough matchup at Buffalo in terrible weather, he’s topped 26 points in both White games. Seattle is a much more beatable 21st in DVOA against the pass
This is a great time to get back on the Garrett Wilson bandwagon. He’s currently tied for third in Pts/Sal projection behind two players priced at $3,700 or less.
We don’t need to go dumpster diving for value, especially considering Wilson’s massive ceiling.
NFL DFS Running Back Values
Christian McCaffrey ($9,000) San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (44.5 total)
Last week was a bit of a letdown for McCaffrey, but he still scored 13.8 DraftKings points in a blowout win over the Commanders. He’s been the engine of the 49ers offense down the stretch, as third-string quarterback Brock Purdy forces San Francisco to lean on the run game.
Obviously, scores in the low teens are a killer at CMC’s price point. However, his three prior contests saw him score at least 28 points. He has at least one touchdown in four straight games and has hit the 100-yard bonus twice in that span.
He’s probably a better cash game/small-field option, as his salary makes it somewhat unlikely he posts a “have to have it” score in large-field GPPs. If he does, it’s probably because the Raiders made this a close game — so consider pairing him with Raiders players if using him.
Still, he has the highest median and Pts/Sal projection of any non-quarterback on the slate. He’s hard to get away from in cash games.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Tyler Conklin ($2,900) New York Jets (-2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (42.5 total)
We could probably just copy and paste the analysis of Garrett Wilson here, as the Jets’ entire pass offense gets a major boost under Mike White. Like his teammate, Conklin has seen his price dip thanks to two down weeks but had been more productive with White under center.
In Conklin’s case, he’s averaged six targets per game under White. While he’s obviously not the explosive option that Wilson is, that’s solid volume for a sub-$3,000 tight end.
Conklin is unlikely to provide a huge score here, but he’s a touchdown away from a very respectable day against the Seahawks. When you factor in his solid floor, he’s about $500 too cheap this week.
He leads all tight ends in Pts/Sal.
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