The Week 16 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 22, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are two running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Alvin Kamara: $7,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
- Melvin Gordon: $5,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Alvin Kamara: New Orleans Saints (-3) at Tennessee Titans, 50.5 Over/Under
Kamara has scored in one game this season. One. That’s some Patrick Laird-level s—t right there.
It’s probably too kind to say that Kamara has had an up-and-down campaign. It’s been mostly down. Despite consistently having one of the highest backfield salaries in each slate, he’s just the No. 15 fantasy running back in points per game.
His year-over-year production has undoubtedly been a disappointment (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- 2018 (17 games): 20.2 FanDuel points, +5.20 Plus/Minus, 64.7% Consistency Rating
- 2019 (12 games): 13.6 FanDuel points, -0.28 Plus/Minus, 33.3% Consistency Rating
Given how expensive he typically is, Kamara has significantly underperformed his salary-based expectations.
Last year, he was a fantasy RB1 in 10-of-15 games. This year, he’s hit that threshold in just four of eight games (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
Last year, he had seven games with 20-plus FanDuel points. This year, he’s had two — and none since Week 4.
Over the past month, he’s averaged just 10.2 FanDuel points and 79.5 scoreless-yards per game.
His production is way down, and it’s possible Kamara returned too soon from the ankle injury that caused him to miss Weeks 7-8.
But there are significant reasons to like Kamara.
Even though his production has underwhelmed, he’s averaged 12.3 carries, seven targets and 5.5 receptions per game over the past month. That’s near-elite usage, especially since a large portion of his opportunities is targets, which are inherently valuable because they yield more yards than carries and directly convert to fantasy points as receptions.
On top of that, Kamara is due for a major reversal in touchdown luck. It’s not as if Kamara is Leonard Fournette stuck in a bad offense that simply cannot score. The Saints are No. 5 in the league with 27.0 points per game: There are touchdowns to go around.
And he scored a lot of times in previous seasons. In 2017-18, Kamara had 100.0 scrimmage yards per game, and he averaged 106.1 yards per touchdown. This season, he’s averaged 96.9 yards per game, so it’s not as if his scrimmage production has dropped precipitously, but he has needed a bloated 581.5 yards per touchdown.
That number has to regress toward his career average at some point.
I expect that Kamara will be less popular in guaranteed prize pools this week than he normally is, especially since he’s averaged only 7.9 FanDuel points per game over the past two weeks while the Saints have put up 80 total points.
And daily fantasy investors will be even less desirous to roster him because Kamara has a tough matchup: The Titans are No. 3 in run defense grade (per Pro Football Focus) and No. 5 in rush defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). We should not expect much from Kamara via the ground game.
But the matchup probably isn’t as bad as it seems. The Titans are No. 23 in pass defense DVOA against running backs, and the passing game is where Kamara has the most to contribute. And since their Week 11 bye, the Titans have been exploited by opposing backfields, allowing 24.2 FanDuel points per game.
The Saints-Titans game has a slate-high over/under, and from a betting perspective, I like the over. The Saints have been one of the league’s most offensively potent teams for years, and since quarterback Ryan Tannehill became the starter for the Titans in Week 7, points have flowed like wine (per RotoViz Team Splits App).
- Tannehill’s starts (eight games): 30.2 points scored, 23.4 points allowed
- Other starts (six games): 16.3 points scored, 15.3 points allowed
In Tanny’s eight starts, the over is 7-1 (per our Bet Labs database).
I’m looking for lots of points in this game, and if enough of them are scored, some of them will likely find their way to Kamara.
And perhaps most importantly, Kamara is priced as just the No. 14 running back at $7,200 on FanDuel. For perspective: He’s $7,500 at DraftKings, even though the salary cap there is $10,000 lower.
On FanDuel, he’s incredibly cheap. Not since Week 10 of Kamara’s 2017 rookie campaign — over two years ago — has he been less expensive than he is now.
If you ever wanted to roster Kamara at a significant discount to his typical salaries and ownership rates, you might never get a better opportunity than this.
Kamara is the unanimous No. 1 back in our Pro Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +4.13 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s also the top option in the Levitan and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings.
Melvin Gordon: Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) vs. Oakland Raiders, 45.5 O/U
Last week did not go well for Gordon, who put up just 64 scoreless-yards in a 39-10 loss that saw him game-scripted out of the contest early. But this could be a week for a bounceback.
Gordon missed Weeks 1-4 because of his holdout, and he needed Weeks 5-8 to work his back into playing shape, but since Week 9, he’s been the No. 9 fantasy back with 17.2 DraftKings points per game.
Gordon’s production has been uneven: When he’s scored a touchdown, he’s been a fantasy RB1. When he hasn’t, he’s been a fantasy RB3.
But his usage has been consistent and strong. Over the past six games, he’s had 14-plus opportunities each week, and he’s averaged a solid 98.3 yards and 0.67 touchdowns on 15.8 carries, 4.2 targets and 3.2 receptions per game.
The presence of explosive change-of-pace back Austin Ekeler has almost certainly resulted in fewer opportunities for Gordon over the past two years (per RotoViz Screener).
- 2016-17 Melvin Gordon (29 games): 18.6 carries, 4.8 targets per game
- 2018-19 Melvin Gordon (24 games): 14.2 carries, 4.6 targets per game
But Gordon is still getting enough opportunities per game to exploit a good matchup, and that’s what he has this week: The Raiders are No. 26 in rush defense DVOA.
In his three divisional matchups against them since last year, Gordon has averaged 24.3 DraftKings points, 139.3 scrimmage yards and one touchdown on 19.7 carries, 3.7 targets and 3.3 receptions per game (per RotoViz Game Splits App). As a significant home favorite, Gordon could easily get 20-plus touches with a back-friendly game script.
And Gordon is cheap. Despite his usage and production since November, he’s priced as the No. 19 back at $5,600 on DraftKings. That’s far too low for a back with his upside: Gordon is the No. 9 back in ceiling projection.
Gordon was $6,500 just last week with a much tougher matchup against the Vikings. Has anything changed in his situation from then to now to justify a $900 decrease in salary? Not at all.
With his advantageous matchup and reduced salary, Gordon warrants consideration in both cash games and guaranteed prize pools and is the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon and Freedman Models for DraftKings.
Upside Running Backs for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers ($10,100 DK, $10,800 FD): McCaffrey is the No. 1 back in our Week 16 fantasy football rankings and easily the No. 1 fantasy back this season with 31.2 DraftKings and 26.4 FanDuel points per game. McCaffrey leads all running backs in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks ($8,500 DK, $8,200 FD): No. 2 back Rashaad Penny (knee) is out, and in Penny’s absence last week, Carson had a season-best 137-yard, two-touchdown performance. In his 11 games as a home favorite since becoming the lead back last season, Carson has averaged 14.6 FanDuel points per game. The Seahawks have a slate-high 30.5-point implied Vegas total, and Carson has position-high marks with 12 Pro Trends and a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks running back Chris Carson (32)
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants ($8,300 DK, $8,800 FD): This has been a disappointing season for Barkley investors, but he’s coming of a season-best 143-yard, two-touchdown game. The Redskins have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing backfields with 28.4 per game, and the four backs they’ve faced comparable to Barkley in salary — Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Le’Veon Bell and Christian McCaffrey — have averaged 21.4 DraftKings points per game against them.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys ($7,900 DK, $8,700 FD): Zeke had his best game of the season last week — a 160-yard, two-touchdown onslaught against a tough Rams defense. Now he gets the Eagles, against whom in five career divisional matchups he’s averaged 28.5 DraftKings points, 163 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 23.6 carries, 7.2 targets and 6.2 receptions per game.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans ($7,700 DK, $8,800 FD): Henry had a relatively down performance last week, but he still had 86 yards on 22 opportunities. Since becoming a locked-in lead back in Week 14 last season, Henry’s put up 118.9 yards and 1.22 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. Since last year, he’s averaged 16.0 FanDuel points with a +5.50 Plus/Minus in 16 home games.
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,200 DK, $7,500 FD): Uncle Lenny is No. 5 in the league with 1,569 scrimmage yards, and he’s due for some positive touchdown regression with just three scores. Fournette is on the positive side of his reverse splits, averaging 22.1 DraftKings points with a +6.67 Plus/Minus in his 14 career games as a road underdog.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns ($6,900 DK, $8,000 FD): Even with the return of Kareem Hunt, Chubb has averaged 120.2 yards on 19.3 carries and 2.3 targets per game over the past six weeks. The Ravens have a funnel defense that ranks No. 4 against the pass but No. 21 against the run in DVOA, and against the Ravens in Week 4, Chubb had a slate-leading 183-yard, three-touchdown game. Chubb has a position-high seven Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens ($6,800 DK, $7,600 FD): Ingram has just 13.6 carries and 2.1 targets per game since the Week 8 bye, and he had only 71 scoreless-yards against the Browns in Week 4. But Ingram is still the lead back on a team that’s No. 1 in the league with 33.7 points per game and a militant 55.4% rush rate, and he’s tied for No. 2 with 15 carries inside the opponent 5-yard line. He has either 100 yards or a touchdown in nine of 14 games.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,600 DK, $7,800 FD): Despite massively underwhelming for the first half of the season, Mixon has managed 16.5 FanDuel points, 124.2 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game since the Week 9 bye, hitting the fantasy RB1 threshold in four-of-six games. The Dolphins are No. 29 in rush defense DVOA and No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,400 DK, $7,400 FD): Although he had just 32 scoreless-yards against the Cowboys in Week 7, Sanders is in good form, coming off a season-best 172-yard, two-touchdown performance last week. Teammate Jordan Howard (shoulder) has missed five straight games and is uncertain for this week. In Howard’s absence, Sanders has averaged 14.8 carries and five targets per game.
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders (26).
Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals ($6,300 DK, $7,100 FD): Locked in as the lead back, Drake has 14.5 carries and 4.5 targets per game since joining the team in Week 9, and last week he dominated with a Millionaire Maker-winning slate-best 146-yard, four-touchdown smackdown.
Marlon Mack, Oakland Raiders ($6,200 DK, $7,300 FD): Last week, Mack had a season-worst 19-yard performance in an embarrassing 34-7 Monday Night Football loss that saw him get game-scripted out of the contest early, but he’s in a bounceback spot this week. The Panthers have allowed an NFL-high 31.0 DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields and have a funnel defense that ranks No. 9 against the pass but No. 32 against the run in DVOA.
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,100 DK, $6,800 FD): Danny Woodhead 2.0 is No. 1 at the position with 68.9 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com), and even in his 10 games with Melvin Gordon, Ekeler has averaged 90.2 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Ekeler was a mid-tier fantasy RB2 against the Raiders in Week 10 with 12.8 DraftKings points.
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons ($6,000 DK, $6,200 FD): Without No. 2 back Ito Smith (neck, IR), Freeman has averaged 15.3 carries and four targets per game since returning from injury in Week 13. In his 23 games as a home favorite since his 2015 breakout campaign, Freeman has averaged 19.6 DraftKings points. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields with 30.4, and they are No. 31 in rush defense DVOA and No. 26 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.
Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets ($5,800 DK, $7,100 FD): #RevengeGame. Since his 2014 breakout, Bell is No. 1 among all backs with 25.6 opportunities per game. In his 11 games against teams other than the Patriots, Bell has averaged 15.6 DraftKings points with a 63.6% Consistency Rating.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns ($5,500 DK, $6,100 FD): In his six games with the Browns, Hunt has averaged 64.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 6.3 carries, six targets and five receptions per game. In his 34 career games, Hunt has put up 19.4 DraftKings points game (including playoffs).
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos ($5,300 DK, $6,300 FD): Lindsay has averaged 13.8 carries and 2.4 targets per game since the Week 10 bye and could benefit from positive game script as a significant home favorite. The Lions have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing backfields with 29.1 per game.
Adrian Peterson, Washington Redskins ($5,000 DK, $6,500 FD): Without teammate Derrius Guice (knee, IR), Peterson had 91 yards and a touchdown last week as the clear lead back. In his six mostly Guice-less starts since interim HC Bill Callahan took over in Week 6, Peterson has averaged 102.8 yards on 19.8 opportunities per game. He could get some extra work with a run-heavy game script as a home favorite.
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins ($3,800 DK, $5,200 FD): I would never blaspheme our Laird & Savior, but last week Gaskin matched Patrick Laird with 34 snaps, and he might get a shot to take the lead role this week. Although he is a seventh-round rookie with limited size (5-foot-9, 205 pounds) and athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash), Gaskin flashed with 72 yards on 12 opportunities last week, and he was a well-rounded collegiate star with 1,300-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns in all four seasons at Washington. The Bengals are No. 27 in rush defense DVOA and No. 30 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.
Updated Analysis
DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders ($4,000 DK, $5,600 FD): Starter Josh Jacobs (shoulder) has been ruled out for Week 16, so Washington is expected to play as the lead back. Filling in for Jacobs in Week 14, Washington put up 21.6 DraftKings points, 96 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries and seven targets. Because of his low pricing and increased expected workload, Washington will be slate’s chalkiest back.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Alvin Kamara
Photo credit: USA TODAY-Sports
