The NFL season is approaching the finish line, as Week 16 is upon us. As usual, DraftKings is opening contests and releasing salaries for the week ahead on Sunday evening. In the fast-changing landscape of the NFL, that leaves plenty of time for obvious value to appear.
Let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 16, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently. Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
For full access to our models, you’ll need to sign up for a FantasyLabs subscription:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jared Goff ($5,400) Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers (44 total)
Part of the Lions’ resurgence has been the uptick in play from Goff. Detroit has won six of their last seven, with the only loss being by just three points to the Buffalo Bills. While Goff hasn’t had massive fantasy performances, he’s been remarkably consistent from a price-considered standpoint, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last four.
He’s still just $5,400 this week, despite a very strong matchup against the Panthers. Carolina has allowed opposing QBs a +5.7 Opponent Plus/Minus this season, a top-three mark on the slate. The famously cold-averse Goff struggles a bit on the road, but with this one in the relatively warm conditions in Carolina, that should be less of an issue here as well.
With all of the weapons at his disposal, another solid Goff outing is certainly likely. He’s tied with Dak Prescott ($6,100) for the lead in Pts/Sal projection but is certainly the more budget-friendly option.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Justin Jefferson ($9,300) Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs. New York Giants (47.5 total)
Sometimes, “value” and “cheap” aren’t the same thing. This is one of those cases. Jefferson is the most expensive receiver on the slate — and also has the highest Pts/Sal projection.
Jefferson has been absolutely on fire this season, topping 30 points in half of the Vikings games. The Minnesota offense has shifted to a more pass-focused attack this season, with Jefferson as the primary beneficiary. He leads all players in targets, with a healthy average depth of target (aDOT) of 10.15.
Much like Cooper Kupp last season, Jefferson is at a point where DraftKings can’t price him high enough to make him a bad play. Especially in a strong matchup against the league’s 24th-ranked pass defense at home in a dome. He’s approaching “must-play” status this week.
NFL DFS Running Back Values
Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) vs. Washington Commanders (39.5 total)
The last few weeks have looked a lot like McCaffrey’s glory days early in his career when he had massive opportunities and efficiency with the Carolina Panthers. While his touch counts aren’t quite to those levels, they’re getting close — and workhorse running backs are considerably harder to find.
The big change came when Jimmy Garoppolo was injured for the 49ers. Since then, the offense has flowed through McCaffrey. In three games with Brock Purdy under center (including Week 13 when Garoppolo was injured in the first quarter), McCaffrey has touch counts of 27/17/34.
While that 17 stands out, it likely would’ve been higher had the 49ers not taken a big lead on the strength of two McCaffrey touchdowns. That was his biggest fantasy score in the post-Jimmy G era.
Like Jefferson, he leads his position in both salary and Pts/Sal projection, making him a near must-play.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
TJ Hockenson ($4,900) Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs. New York Giants (47.5 total)
Hockenson has been a major part of the Vikings’ previously discussed shift to a pass-focused offense. Since trading for the former Lions’ top-10 pick in November, the Vikings have fed him an average of over eight targets per game. No tight end in the league is averaging that over the course of the whole season.
That means Hockenson is getting Travis Kelce-esque opportunities with the Vikings while coming in more than $3,000 cheaper. Some of that discount is explained by talent — both Hockenson and his quarterback trail their Chiefs counterparts in that department. Still, Hockenson should be priced above Mark Andrews and George Kittle based on his role with Minnesota.
This game sets up nicely for the Vikings’ passing attack in general, so loading up on the two top options is certainly a viable strategy. Hockenson trails only Dalton Schultz in Pts/Sal projection among tight ends.
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