The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Titans at Chiefs
The Chiefs will host the Titans as five-point favorites this Sunday. Alex Smith and the Chiefs are currently implied to score 23.5 points, while the Marcus Mariota-led Titans are currently implied to score 18.5 points. There isn’t expected to be any snow this Sunday, but temperatures will likely be below freezing. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Tennessee Titans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Marcus Mariota
Mariota struggled during the Titans’ Week 14 win over the Broncos, as he threw for just 88 yards and didn’t throw multiple touchdowns for the first time since Week 4. He’ll look to rebound against the Chiefs in a matchup that he has historically thrived in:
Per our Trends tool, Mariota has posted a +5.50 Plus/Minus with 81.8 percent Consistency and has averaged 21.17 DraftKings points during his 11 career games as a road underdog. He will have to avoid outside linebacker Justin Houston, who has racked up five sacks since returning to the lineup in Week 11 – tied for the second-most in the league. Mariota is priced at $6,500 on DK and has an 11.7-point projected floor.
RB – DeMarco Murray
Murray is fully recovered from his toe injury he suffered during the Titans’ Week 8 win over the Jaguars. He’s averaged 21.4 touches per game since then and has continued to excel at making defenders miss. Overall, Murray ranks second among all running backs with 43 tackles avoided this season, per Pro Football Focus. He has a good matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed 115-plus rushing yards in five of their last six games. Murray is priced at $7,400 on FanDuel with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has a +6.39 Projected Plus/Minus – the second-highest mark among all running backs.
RB – Derrick Henry
Henry has been more involved in the offense in recent weeks, as he’s racked up 20 carries during his past two games. Still, he’s locked in as Murray’s backup and is overpriced at $5,100 on DK. Henry’s -4.74 Projected Plus/Minus is the fifth-worst mark among all running backs this week.
WR – Rishard Matthews
Matthews couldn’t get much of anything going against the Broncos last week, but it’s hard to have too big of a game when your quarterback throws for just 88 yards. It’s hard to ignore his prior excellent play, as he gained 80-plus yards or scored a touchdown in eight of his nine games prior to last week. Unfortunately for Matthews, he could have a tough time getting back on track this week, as he’s expected to see a lot of Marcus Peters, whose five interceptions are tied for the second-most among all cornerbacks this season. Matthews is priced at $5,800 on FD with a +3.30 Projected Plus/Minus and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Tajae Sharpe
Sharpe scored touchdowns in consecutive games during mid-November but has since been targeted just four times during his last two games. He hasn’t gained more than 70 receiving yards in a game since the season opener and isn’t a recommended fantasy option this week even in a good matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the fifth-most average fantasy points to wide receivers through 14 weeks.
WR – Kendall Wright
Wright was a healthy scratch last week and wasn’t targeted during the Titans’ Week 12 win over the Bears. He showed flashes of talent earlier this season but isn’t a recommended fantasy option this week due to his lack of a role in the offense.
TE – Delanie Walker
*Delanie Walker road underdog alert*
Walker has posted a +5.75 Plus/Minus with 70 percent Consistency and has averaged 14.35 DK points during his 20 (!!!) games as a road underdog during the last three seasons. This is the good news. The bad news: Eric Berry. PFF’s No. 6 overall safety has routinely made life hell for opposing tight ends, as they’ve averaged 2.6 DK points below salary-based expectations against the Chiefs over the past 12 months. This season, the Chiefs have held opposing tight ends to the third-fewest average fantasy points per game. It’s a daunting matchup, but Walker is also priced at a season-low $3,900 on DK; his salary has dropped by $1,800 this month. Berry’s presence makes Walker a risky cash play, but he’s definitely a GPP option with nine to 12 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
Kansas City Chiefs
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Alex Smith
Not much has changed: Smith is not fun to roster in DFS, but he’s in consideration at $5,400 on DraftKings against a Titans defense giving up the third-most DK points per game to quarterbacks this year. That said, Smith is in the uncomfortable middle ground of having a floor (10.2 points) too low for cash games and a ceiling (25.4) too low for GPPs.
RB – Spencer Ware
The emergence of wide receiver Tyreek Hill and the lack of downfield passing with WR Jeremy Maclin out/limited has really hurt Ware over the past month:
Ware is quite talented, and perhaps the Chiefs can find a way to get him more involved in the passing game this week facing a Titans team ranked 13th in rush DVOA but 31st against RBs catching passes out of the backfield, per Football Outsiders. Targeting home favored running backs is historically a positive move, and Ware is getting the volume to be in cash consideration this week at just $6,700 on FD, where he holds a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He is currently the fourth-highest rated RB in the Cash Model and comes with just five to eight percent ownership in the FD Sunday Million.
RB – Charcandrick West
West played just 13 percent of the snaps in Week 14 and was out-touched by Ware 21 to two.
WR – Jeremy Maclin
Maclin (groin) has been a full participant in practice again this week after playing 76.4 percent of the Week 14 offensive snaps. Maclin’s average depth of target (aDot) has actually gone up from 10.6 last year to 12.6 this year, but his efficiency has dropped: He’s averaging 1.39 fantasy points per target compared to 1.97 last season. The Titans have the most favorable WR Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate as a whole, but Maclin has a tough individual matchup against outside CB Brice McCain this week — a bottom-20 matchup in Week 15, according Pro Football Focus.
WR – Tyreek Hill
Hill played on just 45.4 percent of snaps in Week 14. With Maclin back, Hill set a seven-week low in snap percentage. He ran only 17 pass routes, which is extremely low usage for a player now priced at $5,700 on DraftKings. With projections of just five to seven short targets and one to two rushing attempts, Hill will need a big play (or two) to pay off that price tag. His projected floor on DK is down at 5.4 points for Sunday’s game against the Titans; he’s back in GPP-only territory.
WR – Albert Wilson and Chris Conley
These guys matter, but in a bigger sense . . . they don’t matter. Wilson had just one target last week. Conley had two big plays for 70 yards but posted a goose egg the week before. With Maclin back, they now matter even less.
TE – Travis Kelce
Kelce has been arguably the most dangerous tight end in the league with the ball in his hands, as he’s averaging a position-high 4.8 yards after the catch per target on the season. He is first in receptions and receiving yards, and he has the second-highest target share at the position. Kelce is tied for both the highest projected ceiling and Pro Trends this week and is rated as the fourth-highest TE in our Cash Model on FanDuel, where he comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
