The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Saints at Cardinals
The Saints travel west to take on the Cardinals in a game with a Vegas over/under of 51 points. Arizona is a three-point home favorite with an implied team total of 27 points. New Orleans is implied for 23.75.
New Orleans Saints
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Drew Brees
Brees’ home/road splits are known:
He’s struggled immensely when not playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football, and he finds himself with a difficult matchup this week against the Cardinals defense. Arizona is allowing the second-fewest passing touchdowns, third-fewest passing yards, and fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. Over the last year, FanDuel QBs have a -3.0 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Cardinals, who haven’t allowed a single 300-yard passer this season. Even though both of these teams play fast — ranking top-five in plays per game — Brees is likely nothing more than a contrarian play in a few guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Mark Ingram
Week 14 saw some very strange RB usage for the Saints. Ingram saw basically the same of snaps (18) as Tim Hightower (19), Travaris Cadet (18), and John Kuhn (18). Ingram led the group with eight touches, but the game was his third in the last month in which he’s had only seven carries. Arizona has allowed the league’s second-fewest rushing yards and the fewest DraftKings points to RBs. Ingram has a 3.9-point floor projection on DK, where the Cardinals have held RBs to a -3.1 Opponent Plus/Minus.
RB – Tim Hightower
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Hightower over the last month has the same rushing share as Ingram (41.18 percent), but he’s $1,000 FD cheaper and has a higher Bargain Rating (86 percent) and Projected Plus/Minus (+2.41).
WR – Michael Thomas
Thomas missed last week’s game with a foot injury, but he practiced this week and is not on the Saints’ injury report. He’s fully expected to play this week. He should have a difficult assignment this week with Patrick Peterson expected to shadow him in coverage. Peterson is holding opposing receivers to just 0.18 fantasy points per route, the fifth-lowest total in the league. Thomas is priced at $6,400 on FD with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and six Pro Trends.
WR – Brandin Cooks
Cooks looks to be in a significantly better matchup than Thomas, likely to run the majority of his routes against Marcus Cooper, PFF’s fifth-lowest ranked corner out of the 120 qualifying players. Last week Cooks saw double-digit targets for the first time all season, narrowly missing out on two TDs. If Thomas preoccupies Peterson as expected, Cooks looks to be in a great spot for GPPs, given his 24.3-point ceiling projection on DK.
WR – Willie Snead
Arizona’s secondary has been most vulnerable against slot receivers this season with Tyrann Mathieu (shoulder) missing four of the last five games and struggling some in coverage. He is allowing 0.42 fantasy points per route defended in the slot, the fifth-highest total in the league. The Cardinals have given up solid outings to Jeremy Kerley twice (20.2 FD points Week 5, 14.6 in Week 10) and Adam Thielen (15.0). Snead is coming off his best game in a month (6-85-0) and could be in for a similar stat line this week.
TE – Coby Fleener
The Cardinals rank fourth in pass DVOA against TEs and are giving up the fewest fantasy points to the position. However, Fleener has an 18.4-point ceiling on DK along with six Pro Trends. He leads all Saints in red-zone targets (15) on the season. With his zero to one percent projected ownership, he could be a contrarian way to gain exposure to this 50-point game.
Arizona Cardinals
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Carson Palmer
This week is the culmination of a disappointing season. Arizona hasn’t been technically eliminated from the playoffs yet, but 538 gives them less than a one percent chance to make the playoffs: They have nothing to play for over these last couple of weeks.
And that sucks because this week they’re facing the Saints, who rank 25th, 28th, and 17th in overall, pass, and rush Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Vegas doesn’t seem to be too worried: The Cardinals are currently implied for 27 points — the fourth-highest total in the slate. Palmer is in a weird price spot this week: He’s the same price ($7,600 FD) as Tyrod Taylor and $100 more expensive than Colin Kaepernick. Both of those guys will be chalky cash-game guys, and Palmer doesn’t have the high projected ceiling (25.5 FD points) to make him an intriguing tournament target, either. Palmer has a low rating in most of our Pro Models and is projected for just two to four and five to eight percent ownership on DK and FD.
RB – David Johnson
DJ is setting salary records at $10,100 DK and $9,800 FD, and it’s very difficult to argue that he’s overpriced. Over the last four weeks, he’s owned 78.49 percent of the Cardinals’ rushes . . .
. . . and a team-high 26.75 percent of their targets:
For reference, he has a higher monthly target share than WR1s such as Dez Bryant, Jarvis Landry, Jordy Nelson, and Golden Tate. If you roster DJ at $10,000-ish, you’re paying a high price, but you’re getting perhaps the best RB in the league and also perhaps a top-10 WR. He missed salary-based expectations for the first time in nine games last week, scoring 14.6 FD points on 20 rushes and eight targets against the Dolphins. However, he’s still exceeded expectations by an average of +10.0 FD points during that time, and he’s currently projected for the slate’s highest floor at 10.1 FD points. He’s the No. 2 RB in the Bales Model for FD, where he has a massive +7.15 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Larry Fitzgerald
Fitz really struggled in Week 14, catching only three of his nine targets for a putrid 3-12-0 line. He’s continued his recent downswing in production and has had double-digit FD points only once in the last month. During that time he’s owned 19.75 percent of the Cardinals’ targets. The receiving group in Arizona is a little thinner this week after the release of Michael Floyd, which means that Fitz could get a heavy number of targets in a plus matchup. The Saints rank 28th against the pass this season, and they’ve been particularly poor in the middle of the field, ranking dead last in that area, per Football Outsiders. Fitz has a neutral matchup against CB Sterling Moore, but there is definitely upside here.
WR – J.J Nelson
Nelson has scored a TD in back-to-back weeks and theoretically moved up the WR ladder in Arizona after the release of Floyd. For those reasons, he’s projected for a chalky 26-30 and 21-25 percent ownership on DK and FD. And that makes some sense: He’s scored double-digit fantasy points each of the last two weeks and is still only $3,900 DK and $5,000 FD. Still, Nelson has a combined four targets over the last two weeks. Those two touchdowns were his only receptions. There’s a solid chance that he’ll get a boost in volume without Floyd, but it maybe won’t be enough to warrant his tournament ownership.
WR – John Brown
Nelson in part is projected to be chalky because of Brown, who has been limited this week and may play limited snaps due to his sickle cell trait. He’s a risky DFS play, but monitor his status in regards to the rest of the Cardinals. He’s officially questionable.
TE – Jermaine Gresham
Gresham is the underrated potential beneficiary of the musical chairs in Arizona: He’s had volume lately, to the tune of 23 targets over the past three weeks — a 15.92 percent market share. Gresham has caught at least five balls during that time and has two touchdowns during the last month. The Saints are atrocious against TEs this year, ranking 25th against the position, per DVOA. Gresham is currently the No. 3 TE in the Bales Model for FD, where his minimum $4,500 salary comes with a +3.63 Projected Plus/Minus and five Pro Trends. At only nine to 12 percent ownership there, he’s not a terrible leverage play off the chalkiness of Nelson.
Gresham (knee) is officially questionable but is expected to play.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
