The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Packers at Bears
The Packers will travel to Chicago as 6.5-point favorites this Sunday. The Bears will welcome back Alshon Jeffery but are still currently implied to score just 17 points. The Packers are currently implied to score 23.5 points. There isn’t expected to be much snow during the game, although temperatures are currently projected to be below zero, which could make passing the ball a tough task. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers hasn’t practiced this week due to a calf injury, but he’s fully expected to suit up for Sunday. He’s once again emerged as one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in football, as he’s averaging a league-high 24.13 DraftKings points per game this season. Rodgers has been especially hot lately, as he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in eight consecutive games. A large part of his success is due to his surplus of fantasy-friendly opportunities. Overall, Rodgers ranks first and fifth among all quarterbacks in red-zone and deep-ball attempts per game, respectively. He’s priced at $7,100 on DK and has a 30.5-point projected ceiling.
RB – Ty Montgomery
Montgomery balled out during the Packers’ Week 14 win over the Seahawks, converting his 12 touches into 86 total yards and a touchdown. The team reiterated Monday that they view him strictly as a running back and the new depth chart reinforces that point. Still, last week was Montgomery’s first game with double-digit touches since Week 9, as the team has seemingly limited his workload due to his issues with his sickle cell trait. He has a tough matchup this week against a Bears defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest average fantasy points to running backs this season. Montgomery is priced at $5,000 on FanDuel with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.24 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Christine Michael and James Starks
Starks had two carries last week during a game that the Packers were leading 31-3 at one point. He’s also dealing with a concussion and is doubtful for Sunday. Michael led the team with 10 carries but gained just 36 yards and continued to offer zero upside as a receiver. Michael (illness) is officially questionable but expected to play. Neither back is a recommended fantasy option this week due to their volatile workloads and tough matchup.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Nelson has been on fire lately, as he’s scored seven touchdowns during his last seven games. He’s been particularly unguardable in the red zone, where he leads all wide receivers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Nelson will look to keep balling out this week in a matchup that he has historically thrived in:
Per our Trends tool, he’s posted a +6.45 Plus/Minus with 62.5 percent Consistency and has averaged 23.28 DK points during his eight games as a road favorite over the past three seasons. Nelson is priced at $7,700 on FD with a 94 percent Bargain Rating and has a 23.9-point projected ceiling.
WR – Davante Adams
Adams has continued to make good use of his six to nine targets per game, as he converted his six targets into a 4-104-1 line during the Packers’ Week 14 win against the Seahawks. Overall, he’s been targeted six-plus times in eight consecutive weeks and has remained one of the most efficient receivers in the league. Adams’ average of 2.08 fantasy points per target ranks eighth among all wide receivers this season. This week, he has a good matchup against a Bears defense that ranks among the bottom-10 teams in average fantasy points allowed to wide receivers per game. Adams is priced at $6,100 on DK with six Pro Trends, although his nine to 12 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is higher than similarly-projected receivers Sterling Shepard and Allen Robinson.
WR – Randall Cobb
Cobb has become an afterthought in the Packers offense, as Adams is locked in as the team’s No. 2 wide receiver. Overall, Cobb has been targeted less than six times in three of his last four games. His reduced workload is likely a result from his poor efficiency, as his average of 7.3 yards per target ranks 97th among all wide receivers. Cobb is priced at $5,800 on FD with a 76 percent Bargain Rating and is a very risky play this week due to his volatile workload.
TE – Jared Cook
Cook suffered a lung contusion last week but is expected to be ready to go by Sunday. He’s been targeted just eight times over the last three weeks and has converted those opportunities into a mediocre 5-41-0 line. Cook will likely be limited during Sunday’s game and is not a recommended fantasy option this week.
Chicago Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matt Barkley
Barkley underwhelmed last week in a matchup against the league’s third-worst defense in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the pass. Overall, he threw for just 212 yards and one touchdown against the Lions. There’s no doubting that Barkley looked like a very competent quarterback three weeks ago when he threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns against the Titans. Still, the Titans have allowed the third-most average fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and he threw 54 passes in that game. Since then, Barkley has thrown 18 and 32 passes. This week, he’ll face a Packers pass defense that has improved lately, as they’ve allowed 218 yards or fewer in three consecutive games after allowing 270-plus passing yards from Week 8 to Week 11. Barkley is minimum-priced on DraftKings and has a 25.3-point projected ceiling.
RB – Jordan Howard
Howard has been the lone bright spot on an otherwise brutal Bears offense since Jeffery was suspended. He’s averaged 113.25 total yards and three touchdowns during his past four games. Overall, Howard’s average of 5.7 yards per touch ranks 15th among all running backs through 15 weeks. This week, he’ll be challenged by a Packers defense that held him to a season-low 22 rushing yards in Week 7. Howard is priced at $6,600 on FD with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and has nine Pro Trends.
RB – Jeremy Langford
The Bears’ backfield belongs to Howard. Langford has just six touches during his last three games and isn’t a recommended fantasy option this week.
WR – Alshon Jeffery
Jeffery has served his four-game suspension and is expected to start for the Bears’ Week 15 matchup against the Packers. He’ll look to improve upon his brutal first half of the season:
Per our Trends tool, Jeffery posted a -3.32 Plus/Minus with 33.3 percent Consistency and averaged 12.44 DK points during his first nine games of the season. Jeffery could have a hard time getting back on track against a Packers defense that he has historically struggled against, as he’s averaged a 3.78-50-0.22 line during his nine career games against the Packers. He’s priced at $6,700 on FD with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and has a 3.0-point projected floor.
WR – Cameron Meredith
Meredith balled out last week as the Bears’ featured receiver, converting his eight targets into a 6-72-1 line. Unfortunately for Meredith, Jeffery is #back:
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, we see that Meredith has performed slightly worse with Jeffery in the lineup this season. He’s actually performed much worse with Jeffery in the lineup if you take away his 50-yard Hail Mary touchdown earlier this season. Still, the biggest factor working against Meredith this week is his low floor and high ownership: He’s priced at $4,200 on DK with a 2.3-point projected floor and has nine to 12 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Josh Bellamy
Marquess Wilson has apparently re-broken his foot and Eddie Royal has been losing a battle with his toe all year. Both are out for Week 15. Bellamy has played well in relief of the Bears’ receivers but has very little touchdown upside and is dealing with a hurt shoulder. He should not be considered a fantasy option this week due to his limited role and the return of Jeffery.
TE – Daniel Brown
At 6’5″ and 225 pounds, Brown is more of a wide receiver than a tight end. This fact was on display last week, as he caught all six of his targets for 42 yards. Still, this was against a Lions defense that has been brutal against tight ends all year. This week, Brown has a much tougher matchup against safeties Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, both of whom are ranked among PFF’s top-30 safeties this season. Brown is minimum-priced across the industry and should be viewed as nothing more than a potential GPP punt play.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
