The Week 15 NFL Dashboard
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Lions at Giants
The Giants will host the Lions as four-point favorites this Sunday. Eli Manning and the G-men are currently implied to score 22.5 points, while Matthew Stafford and the Lions are currently implied to score 18.5 points. There’s an 80 percent chance of rain during game-time on Sunday, so be sure to monitor the weather in this one. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Detroit Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
Stafford has led the Lions to five straight wins, although he’s continued to underwhelm as a fantasy quarterback. Overall, Stafford ranks outside of the top-10 QBs in average DraftKings points per game and has thrown for 300-plus yards once since Week 3. Part of the problem has been his reluctance to throw the ball downfield, as his 7.6-yard aDOT is the fourth-lowest mark among all quarterbacks this season, per Pro Football Focus. This week, Stafford has a very tough matchup against a Giants defense that has allowed the second-fewest average fantasy points to QBs this season. He’s priced at $6,300 on DK and has a +2.26 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Theo Riddick
Riddick didn’t play last week due to a wrist injury and is officially doubtful for this week. He’s very unlikely to play.
If he plays, he’ll likely be limited. He received fewer carries than Dwayne Washington and Zach Zenner during the team’s Week 13 win over the Saints. Considering Washington was able to run the ball effectively against the Bears last week, it’s tough to project Riddick for more than five carries. He’s still fully locked in as the team’s receiving back, although he has a tough matchup against a Giants defense that has limited receiving backs this season:
Per our Trends tool, running backs that have averaged at least three targets per game this season have posted a -1.10 Plus/Minus with 42.9 percent Consistency and have averaged just 8.74 DK points against the Giants. Riddick is priced at $5,500 on FanDuel with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has a +2.58 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Dwayne Washington
Zenner is currently in the concussion protocol and is questionable for Sunday. Washington was the team’s featured back last week, and he converted his 16 carries into a season-high 64 yards. While this performance was promising, it’s not reflective of his overall performance this season. Washington’s averages of 0.5 fantasy points per opportunity and 3.4 yards per touch each rank outside of the top-70 among all running backs. If Riddick is ultimately unable to suit up, Washington would be expected to once again slide into the featured back role; his $3,500 price tag on DK makes him a GPP option.
WR – Golden Tate
Tate has been targeted 10-plus times in consecutive weeks and has continued to excel with the ball in his hands. His average of 4.9 yards after the catch per target ranks first among all wide receivers this season. Tate will have his work cut out for him this week against Janoris Jenkins, although Jenkins hasn’t made a habit of following receivers into the slot this season. Still, he’s fresh off of holding Dez Bryant to a 1-10-0 line on nine targets and has earned PFF’s sixth-highest grade among all cornerbacks this season. Tate is priced at $6,100 on FD with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has five Pro Trends.
WR – Marvin Jones
Jones converted his five targets into a 4-67-0 line last week and didn’t appear to be limited by a quad injury. Still, he was out-targeted by both Tate and Anquan Boldin. Jones has shown the ability to put together monster games, but he’s done next to nothing since Week 3. Overall, his average of 0.23 fantasy points per opportunity since Week 3 ranks 99th among all wide receivers, per PFF. Jones is priced at $5,600 on FD with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Boldin has been more involved in the Lions offense than ever in recent weeks, as he’s been targeted six-plus times in four consecutive games. He’s been especially utilized in the red zone, where he’s scored six touchdowns this season — tied for the second-most among all wide receivers. Boldin has a tough matchup this week against a Giants defense that ranks seventh in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the pass through 14 weeks. He’s priced at $5,200 on FD with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and has a +2.1 Projected Plus/Minus.
TE – Eric Ebron
Ebron was targeted eight-plus times in consecutive games upon returning from his knee injury in Week 8, but his role in the offense has diminished since then. Overall, he’s averaged a 2.5-35-0 line during his past four games on 4.25 targets per game. This is especially concerning because Ebron has been fairly inefficient with his targets all season long. His averages of 8.7 yards and 1.79 fantasy points per target each rank outside of the top-20 among all tight ends this season. Part of the problem is Ebron’s non-existent red-zone role, as he’s been targeted just four times inside the opponent’s 20-yard line this season. This week, he’ll face a Giants secondary that is highlighted by safety Landon Collins, PFF’s second-highest graded safety this season. Ebron is priced at $5,800 on FD with seven Pro Trends and has two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
Manning has scored a combined 20.2 FanDuel points in his past two games, has thrown for under 200 yards in three straight games, and has averaged just 14.25 FanDuel points per game in his last four. Eli is currently a bottom-three rated quarterback in the Bales Player Model for FD. Per Football Outsiders, the Lions are ranked 30th in pass DVOA this season, but they have played extremely well against opposing QBs since their bye four weeks ago. In the four games since the bye week, Detroit has held opposing QBs to 241 passing yards per game and a total of three touchdown passes. They did not allow Drew Brees to throw a TD in New Orleans and have given up just 15.5 points per game to opponents in that stretch. Per our Trends tool, the Lions have yielded 11.23 FanDuel points per game and a -4.57 Plus/Minus to QBs in the past four weeks. Play Manning at your own risk.
RB – Rashad Jennings
Jennings and Paul Perkins were given an equal amount of carries (15) last week, as the Giants backfield has apparently devolved into a full-blown timeshare. Jennings has not rushed for more than 55 yards in three straight games and has averaged just 9.3 FD points per game during that stretch. Detroit has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs (three) this season. Seeking alternative options at this point is recommended.
RB – Paul Perkins
Perkins was given double-digit carries for the first time in five weeks and just the second time this season. Last week I wrote: “At best, Perkins is in a timeshare with Jennings. At worst, he’s the backup. Either way, he’s not getting a lot of opportunity, and opportunity is everything for RBs.” That’s still applicable. Unless Perkins takes over the job on a full-time basis, he’s an extremely risky play.
RB – Shane Vereen
Vereen (concussion) is questionable for Week 15. If active, he’ll likely steal targets from Jennings and Perkins.
WR – Odell Beckham
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Beckham leads the Giants with a monstrous 33.08 percent target share over the last four games. In fact, Beckham has been targeted at least nine times in 11 of his last 12 games. Even with Manning failing to throw for more than 200 yards during the past three weeks, Beckham has still managed to average 96.7 receiving yards and 23.3 DraftKings points per game during those games. Detroit cornerbacks Darius Slay and Nevin Lawson are Pro Football Focus’ sixth- and 18th-graded coverage corners, respectively, and we project Beckham to be at deliciously chalky 21-25 percent ownership in DK’s Milly Maker this week. Studies have shown that going with potentially low-owned WRs with upside in tournaments is the way to go: Perhaps an Odell fade is in order?
WR – Sterling Shepard
Shepard has seen as many as 11 and as few as zero targets in his last four games. He has not scored more than 16 DK points since Week 3 and has had 8.2 DK points or less in six of his last 11 games. Shepard is cheap, but he’s also unreliable; it’s likely you can find a better option this week.
WR – Victor Cruz
Cruz is down to an 8.46 percent target share in the last four weeks (per Mears’ Market Share Report) and he has not scored double-digit FD points or a touchdown since Week 1. You’d best pay him no mind like Eli does.
TE – Will Tye
Last week, Tye had a juicy matchup with a Dallas defense ranked 31st in pass DVOA against TEs, and he caught two balls for 19 yards. In Tye’s last four games, he has averaged 3.25 targets, two catches, and 5.12 DK points per game. No, thank you.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
