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Week 15 Fantasy RB Breakdown: Is It Finally Saquon SZN?

week 3-nfl-dfs-player props-picks-2021

The Week 15 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 15, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models

There are six running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Saquon Barkley: $7,700 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
  • Chris Carson: $7,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
  • Todd Gurley: $6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
  • Carlos Hyde: $4,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
  • Jamaal Williams: $4,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
  • Jalen Richard: $3,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel

Odds as of Thursday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

Saquon Barkley: New York Giants (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins, 46.5 Over/Under

You don’t need me to tell you that this year has been a disappointment for Saquon. I don’t hold against him that he suffered an injury early in Week 3 and missed all of Weeks 4-6. NFL players get injured.

But even when we remove his injury-shorted Week 3 from the sample, Barkley has suffered some significant year-over-year regression (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • 2019 (nine games): 13.7 FanDuel points, -1.05 Plus/Minus, 44.4% Consistency Rating
  • 2018 (16 games): 21.3 FanDuel points, +6.44 Plus/Minus, 81.3% Consistency Rating

Last year, Barkley hit salary-based expectations more than any other starting running back. He was prolific. This year, Barkley investors have lost money.

If we look at his on-field stats, we can get a great sense of where his production has declined (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

  • 2019 (nine games): 15.7 carries for 66.7 yards and 0.22 touchdowns rushing, 6.1 targets for 4.1 receptions, 29.4 yards and 0.11 touchdowns receiving
  • 2018 (16 games): 16.3 carries for 81.7 yards and 0.69 touchdowns rushing, 7.6 targets for 5.7 receptions, 45.1 yards and 0.25 touchdowns receiving

No surprise: He is getting a little less volume and is a little less efficient with it, but the big difference is that he’s scoring 0.61 fewer touchdowns per game. That’s what happens when a running back’s team scores 23.1 points per game in one season and just 19.0 the next.

Barkley has a locked-in three-down workload, but his ceiling and floor this year are much lower than they were previously (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

Last year, Barkley had 25-plus FanDuel points in five games. This year, he hasn’t hit that mark once. Last year, he was a fantasy RB1 in 75% of his games. This year: 33.3% if you discount his partial Week 3.

And over the past six weeks, he has averaged just 9.3 FanDuel points per game.

In a vacuum, Saquon scares me.

But Barkley has a great matchup this week. The Dolphins are No. 29 in rush defense DVOA and No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against running backs (per Football Outsiders).

The three backs to face the Dolphins this year with salaries similar to Saquon’s — Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb — averaged 21.8 FanDuel points per game against them with a +7.26 Plus/Minus.

Lots of players contribute to the vastness of the Dolphins’ back-centric defensive ineptitude, but linebackers Jerome Baker and Sam Eguavoen seem especially to blame, as evidenced by their poor Pro Football Focus grades.

  • Jerome Baker: 41.7 overall grade, 35.8 run defense, 54.1 coverage
  • Sam Eguavoen: 47.0 overall grade, 42.4 run defense, 60.6 coverage

Against such defenders, Barkley could certainly have a bounceback performance.

Starting quarterback Daniel Jones (ankle) has returned to practice, but he’s tentatively expected to sit one more game, so veteran Eli Manning will get another start. Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and Barkley and Manning have a strong 0.48 correlation in production over the past year. If Barkley has a big game, Manning could as well. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Barkley with Manning.

Barkley is the No. 1 back in the Raybon Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel, with a position-high +3.29 Projected Plus/Minus on the latter.

Chris Carson: Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Carolina Panthers, 48 O/U

There’s a lot to like about Carson this week.

First of all, he’s priced as the No. 12 back on FanDuel, which matches up with his positional scoring rank: He’s the No. 12 running back with 14.0 FanDuel points per game.

But that pricing is far too low considering that Carson is likely to see an increase in usage: No. 2 back Rashaad Penny (knee) forced an even timeshare in Weeks 12-13, but last week he suffered a season-ending injury, so Carson is once again in line to see 20-plus opportunities (carries plus targets), as he did regularly before the team’s Week 11 bye.

Additionally, Carson has had positive splits as a favorite since becoming the lead back last year.

  • Favorite (16 games): 14.3 FanDuel points, +3.39 Plus/Minus, 68.8% Consistency Rating
  • Underdog (13 games): 11.6 FanDuel points, +1.24 Plus/Minus, 46.2% Consistency Rating

And most importantly, he has a great matchup. The Panthers have allowed a league-high 28.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing backfields and have a funnel defense that ranks No. 8 against the pass but No. 32 against the run in DVOA.

And since their Week 7 bye, the Panthers have been even worse, allowing 34.3 FanDuel points per game to running backs.

Just last week, they allowed the relatively unimposing duo of Devonta Freeman and Brian Hill to combine for 30.2 FanDuel points on 30-152-2 rushing and 4-10-0 receiving.

nfl week 1 2019-running back fantasy values-dfs picks-chris carson

Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks running back Chris Carson (32)

With this matchup and as the lead back of the team that ranks No. 5 in the league with a 46.4% rush rate, Carson could have a massive performance and is an option in both cash games and tournaments.

Carson is the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has elite marks with a 97% Bargain Rating and nine Pro Trends.

Todd Gurley: Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Dallas Cowboys, 49 O/U

The concerns that investors had about Gurley entering the season were definitely warranted. His per-game usage and yardage splits are beyond concerning.

  • 2017-18 (33 games): 17.5 carries, 5.6 targets, 127.3 scrimmage yards
  • 2019 (12 games): 14.8 carries, 3.3 targets, 74.1 scrimmage yards

He has gotten fewer opportunities this year and been less efficient with his touches.

But in his eight games with wide receivers Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks and tight end Tyler Higbee all healthy, he has averaged 16.2 DraftKings points.

And over the past month, he has averaged 16.5 DraftKings points — even with his 19-yard stinker in a 45-6 loss against the Ravens in Week 12.

He’s been inconsistent, but after a rough three games to open the year, he’s been much better since Week 4, putting up five fantasy RB1 performances in nine games.

For Gurley, the key is game script. This year in two blowout losses by more than 14 points, he has averaged just 10.5 touches. In his 10 other games, 18.2.

As long as the Rams don’t get embarrassed by the Cowboys and fall into a massive hole, Gurley is likely to get his opportunities.

And Gurley still has his hold on the team’s goal-line role: With his 10 touchdowns, he trails only six other running backs in scoring.

The Cowboys are about average against running backs in general, but I believe they’re exploitable: Linebacker Leighton Vander Esch (neck) has missed the past three games and is uncertain for this week, and the five backs comparable in salary to Gurley to face the Cowboys — Aaron Jones, Le’Veon Bell, James White, Devin Singletary and David Montgomery — have averaged 18.4 DraftKings points per game against them with a +5.99 Plus/Minus.

Finally, Gurley is on the positive side of his splits: In his 16 games as a road favorite with head coach Sean McVay, he has averaged 24.4 DraftKings points per game.

And maybe most importantly, at $6,000 on DraftKings, Gurley is as cheap as he’s ever been at any point in the McVay era.

Gurley is the No. 1 back in the Koerner Model for DraftKings, where he has a strong 91% Bargain Rating.

Carlos Hyde: Houston Texans (+3) at Tennessee Titans, 46 O/U

There’s not a lot to like about Hyde this week.

The Titans are No. 5 in rush defense DVOA, and Hyde is a road dog. As a player who offers almost nothing as a receiver, he’s in a bad spot.

Since the team’s Week 10 bye, he’s averaged just 13.5 opportunities per game.

Hyde has just 10.2 DraftKings points per game this year, and in only one game has he been a fantasy RB1.

But Hyde has two big factors in his favor.

First, he’s cheap at $4,500 on DraftKings, so he offers lots of roster flexibility. If you roster Hyde, you can get lots of other desirable players in your lineup. Additionally, he’s likely to have a low ownership rate, perhaps less than 1%.

And with his projected ownership rate, Hyde has a slate-high 99% Leverage Score on DraftKings, because he actually has a pretty decent ceiling projection.

Hyde is a relatively uninspiring between-the-tackles grinder, but he has a career-best 4.7 yards per carry this year as well as 15-plus opportunities in eight games, 80-plus yards in five games and a touchdown in four games.

If everything lines up just right, which is what happened against the Chiefs in Week 6, when Hyde had 130 yards and a touchdown, he could have another fantasy RB1 performance.

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carlos Hyde

The odds of that happening aren’t high, but they’re probably a lot higher than the 1% ownership rate Hyde will have. After all, he’s been a fantasy RB1 in 7.7% of his games this year.

And the Texans are No. 2 in PFF run grade: It’s not as if they have no chance to move the ball on the ground against the Titans.

Hyde is the No. 1 back in the Bales, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a good 88% Bargain Rating.

Jamaal Williams: Green Bay Packers (-4.5) vs. Chicago Bears, 40.5 O/U

Williams is coming off his worst game of the season — a scoreless 24-yard performance with just eight opportunities — so he’s likely to have a reduced ownership rate this week, and he’s yet to be rostered at even 5% in any main slate this year.

His low ownership rate is the primary reason to like him. Because Williams plays behind teammate Aaron Jones, it’s impossible to predict when he’s going to go off, but in his 36 games since becoming a regular contributor in Week 10 of the 2017 season, Williams has been a fantasy RB1 six times, good for a hit rate of 16.7%.

It’s not a pleasing thought to roster Williams, but his odds of having a big game will likely be higher than his ownership rate.

And it’s not as if Williams is a player with no upside: Over his past four games, he’s averaged 10.3 carries and 3.5 targets per week, and for the year he has six touchdowns. Plus, Williams is cheap. He hasn’t been less than $4,200 on DraftKings since Week 3.

As a home favorite, Williams could get some extra work with a run-heavy game script, and I’m bullish on the Packers in this matchup. With quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have had notable home/away against-the-spread splits (per our Bet Labs database).

  • Home: 52-30-3
  • Away: 44-41-1

At home, the Packers with Rodgers have gifted a 23.4% return on investment to ATS bettors, and in the Rodgers era (since 2008), the Packers score differential relative to their opponents has been 8.5 points higher at home than on the road. That home/away split is easily the highest in the league.

At Lambeau Field, the Packers truly have a home-field advantage.



For cheap exposure to a team that usually balls out at home, Williams is a very reasonable option.

He’s the No. 1 back in the Levitan Model for DraftKings.

Jalen Richard: Oakland Raiders (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 45.5 O/U

Starter Josh Jacobs (shoulder) missed Week 14 and is uncertain for this week. I expect he will suit up since he has a clean MRI and got in a limited practice on Wednesday.

But if he’s out, then Richard will be a cheap option to consider.

At $3,700 on DraftKings, Richard is highly unlikely to go off: He’s had only two fantasy RB1 games in his career. But last year — in the pre-Jacobs era — Richard had six fantasy RB2 performances, and if he hits that threshold this week, that might be enough to return value at his low cost.

And he has a good matchup: The Jags have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing backfields with 30.6 per game, and they are No. 31 in rush defense DVOA and No. 26 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.

I would never blaspheme by comparing Richard to Austin Ekeler, but they are similar as pass-catching backs who can also pitch in as runners, and last week Ekeler had a position-high 37.3 DraftKings points against the Jags with 8-101-0 rushing and 4-112-1 receiving.

And in Week 9, the somewhat comparable Duke Johnson scored 19.1 DraftKings points on the Jags with 7-13-1 rushing and 5-68-0 receiving.

Richards is the No. 1 back in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, where he has a strong 95% Bargain Rating.

Upside Running Backs for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers ($10,000 DK, $10,400 FD): McCaffrey is the No. 1 back in our Week 14 fantasy football rankings and easily the No. 1 fantasy back this year with 30.7 DraftKings and 25.8 FanDuel points per game. McCaffrey leads all running backs in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings ($8,900 DK, $8,500 FD): Cook has a touchdown in an NFL-high 11 of 13 games, and in his two scoreless starts, he has 167 scrimmage yards per game. Cook is on the positive side of his splits, averaging 17.2 FanDuel points per game as a favorite. The Chargers are No. 23 in rush defense DVOA and No. 24 in pass defense DVOA against running backs, and Cook has a position-high 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans ($8,500 DK, $9,400 FD): Since becoming a locked-in lead back in Week 14 last year, Henry has averaged 120.9 yards and 1.29 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. Since last year, he’s averaged 19.7 FanDuel points with a +9.05 Plus/Minus and 87.5% Consistency Rating in eight games as a home favorite. Henry has a position-high 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derrick Henry

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns ($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD): Even with the return of Kareem Hunt, Chubb has averaged 114.6 yards on 19.8 carries and 2.2 targets per game over the past five weeks.

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,600 DK, $7,700 FD): Uncle Lenny is No. 4 in the league with 1,496 scrimmage yards, and he’s on the positive side of his reverse splits, averaging 22.8 DraftKings points with a +7.61 Plus/Minus and 76.9% Consistency Rating in his 13 career games as a road underdog. The Raiders are No. 27 in rush defense DVOA and No. 30 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.

Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders ($7,000 DK, $7,700 FD): Jacobs (shoulder) missed last week but is tentatively expected to play this week. The first back selected in the 2019 draft, Jacobs has lived up to the hype with 100.6 yards and 0.58 touchdowns from scrimmage per game on a run-committed team with a 45.1% rush rate. The sample is small, but in his two games as a home favorite, Jacobs has averaged 22.2 DraftKings points.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,700 DK, $7,200 FD): Danny Woodhead 2.0 is No. 1 at the position with 66.2 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com), and even in his nine games with Melvin Gordon, Ekeler has averaged 91.2 yards and 0.56 touchdowns.

Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD): MG3 has averaged 105.2 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game since the beginning of November with more than 16 opportunities every week.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns ($6,300 DK, $6,700 FD): In his five games with the Browns, Hunt has averaged 62.2 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 6.8 carries, 5.6 targets and 4.4 receptions per game. In his 33 career games, Hunt has put up 19.3 DraftKings points game (including playoffs).

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,100 DK, $6,700 FD): Despite massively underwhelming this year, Mixon has managed 18.6 DraftKings points, 117.8 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game since the Week 9 bye, and he has a strong 94% Leverage Score on DraftKings.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,900 DK, $6,800 FD): Teammate Jordan Howard (shoulder) has missed three straight games and is uncertain for this week. In Howard’s absence, Sanders has averaged 14.7 carries and five targets per game.

Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos ($5,600 DK, $6,400 FD): Lindsay has averaged 15.5 carries and 2.5 targets per game since the Week 10 bye and is on the positive side of his reverse splits, averaging 16.5 DraftKings points with a +5.91 Plus/Minus in his nine career games as a road underdog. The Chiefs have allowed a league-high 31.9 DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD): Over the past six weeks, Montgomery has averaged 15.7 carries and 2.2 targets per game, and the Packers have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to running backs with 28.4 per game.

James White, New England Patriots ($5,400 DK, $6,800 FD): Since 2016, when White became a regular contributor in the Pats offense, he’s averaged 13.6 DraftKings points and 10.5 opportunities in his 63 games with quarterback Tom Brady. The Bengals are No. 28 in rush defense DVOA and No. 29 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.

Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers ($5,200 DK, $7,500 FD): Over the past two weeks, Mostert has led the 49ers backfield with 40-plus snaps and 12-plus opportunities in each game. In his five career games with at a dozen carries and targets, Mostert has averaged 18.2 DraftKings points. The 49ers have a slate-high 29-point implied Vegas total. I’m actually considering Mostert in cash games.

Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals ($5,000 DK, $6,200 FD): Drake has averaged 13 carries and 5.2 targets per game since joining the Cardinals in Week 9, and the Browns are No. 26 in PFF run defense grade.

DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders ($4,700 DK, $6,300 FD): Starter Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is uncertain for this weekend, but he seems likely to play. If he’s out, Washington will be a viable option in all formats as a home favorite with a good matchup. Last week, Washington racked up 21.6 DraftKings points on 14-53-1 rushing and 6-43-0 receiving in Jacobs’ absence.

Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,600 DK, $5,800 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Jones has averaged 10.4 carries and 3.6 targets per game. He makes for an intriguing low-owned tournament pivot play on Patrick Laird. The Lions have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing backfields with 30.2 per game.

Patrick Laird, Miami Dolphins ($4,500 DK, $5,500 FD): Over the past two weeks, the undrafted fourth-string rookie has averaged 14.5 DraftKings points on 12.5 carries and five targets per game. A legitimate talent with back-to-back 1,200-yard seasons in college and serious receiving prowess with his 84.2% catch rate, Laird has a position-high +3.07 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.

Adrian Peterson, Washington Redskins ($4,400 DK, $6,300 FD): Teammate Derius Guice (knee, IR) suffered an injury early in Week 14 and is out for the year, so Peterson will be the clear lead back this week. In his five mostly Guice-less starts since interim HC Bill Callahan took over in Week 6, Peterson has averaged 105.2 yards on 20 opportunities per game.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Saquon Barkley
Photo credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

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The Week 15 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 15, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models

There are six running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Saquon Barkley: $7,700 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
  • Chris Carson: $7,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
  • Todd Gurley: $6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
  • Carlos Hyde: $4,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
  • Jamaal Williams: $4,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
  • Jalen Richard: $3,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel

Odds as of Thursday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

Saquon Barkley: New York Giants (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins, 46.5 Over/Under

You don’t need me to tell you that this year has been a disappointment for Saquon. I don’t hold against him that he suffered an injury early in Week 3 and missed all of Weeks 4-6. NFL players get injured.

But even when we remove his injury-shorted Week 3 from the sample, Barkley has suffered some significant year-over-year regression (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • 2019 (nine games): 13.7 FanDuel points, -1.05 Plus/Minus, 44.4% Consistency Rating
  • 2018 (16 games): 21.3 FanDuel points, +6.44 Plus/Minus, 81.3% Consistency Rating

Last year, Barkley hit salary-based expectations more than any other starting running back. He was prolific. This year, Barkley investors have lost money.

If we look at his on-field stats, we can get a great sense of where his production has declined (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

  • 2019 (nine games): 15.7 carries for 66.7 yards and 0.22 touchdowns rushing, 6.1 targets for 4.1 receptions, 29.4 yards and 0.11 touchdowns receiving
  • 2018 (16 games): 16.3 carries for 81.7 yards and 0.69 touchdowns rushing, 7.6 targets for 5.7 receptions, 45.1 yards and 0.25 touchdowns receiving

No surprise: He is getting a little less volume and is a little less efficient with it, but the big difference is that he’s scoring 0.61 fewer touchdowns per game. That’s what happens when a running back’s team scores 23.1 points per game in one season and just 19.0 the next.

Barkley has a locked-in three-down workload, but his ceiling and floor this year are much lower than they were previously (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

Last year, Barkley had 25-plus FanDuel points in five games. This year, he hasn’t hit that mark once. Last year, he was a fantasy RB1 in 75% of his games. This year: 33.3% if you discount his partial Week 3.

And over the past six weeks, he has averaged just 9.3 FanDuel points per game.

In a vacuum, Saquon scares me.

But Barkley has a great matchup this week. The Dolphins are No. 29 in rush defense DVOA and No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against running backs (per Football Outsiders).

The three backs to face the Dolphins this year with salaries similar to Saquon’s — Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb — averaged 21.8 FanDuel points per game against them with a +7.26 Plus/Minus.

Lots of players contribute to the vastness of the Dolphins’ back-centric defensive ineptitude, but linebackers Jerome Baker and Sam Eguavoen seem especially to blame, as evidenced by their poor Pro Football Focus grades.

  • Jerome Baker: 41.7 overall grade, 35.8 run defense, 54.1 coverage
  • Sam Eguavoen: 47.0 overall grade, 42.4 run defense, 60.6 coverage

Against such defenders, Barkley could certainly have a bounceback performance.

Starting quarterback Daniel Jones (ankle) has returned to practice, but he’s tentatively expected to sit one more game, so veteran Eli Manning will get another start. Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and Barkley and Manning have a strong 0.48 correlation in production over the past year. If Barkley has a big game, Manning could as well. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Barkley with Manning.

Barkley is the No. 1 back in the Raybon Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel, with a position-high +3.29 Projected Plus/Minus on the latter.

Chris Carson: Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Carolina Panthers, 48 O/U

There’s a lot to like about Carson this week.

First of all, he’s priced as the No. 12 back on FanDuel, which matches up with his positional scoring rank: He’s the No. 12 running back with 14.0 FanDuel points per game.

But that pricing is far too low considering that Carson is likely to see an increase in usage: No. 2 back Rashaad Penny (knee) forced an even timeshare in Weeks 12-13, but last week he suffered a season-ending injury, so Carson is once again in line to see 20-plus opportunities (carries plus targets), as he did regularly before the team’s Week 11 bye.

Additionally, Carson has had positive splits as a favorite since becoming the lead back last year.

  • Favorite (16 games): 14.3 FanDuel points, +3.39 Plus/Minus, 68.8% Consistency Rating
  • Underdog (13 games): 11.6 FanDuel points, +1.24 Plus/Minus, 46.2% Consistency Rating

And most importantly, he has a great matchup. The Panthers have allowed a league-high 28.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing backfields and have a funnel defense that ranks No. 8 against the pass but No. 32 against the run in DVOA.

And since their Week 7 bye, the Panthers have been even worse, allowing 34.3 FanDuel points per game to running backs.

Just last week, they allowed the relatively unimposing duo of Devonta Freeman and Brian Hill to combine for 30.2 FanDuel points on 30-152-2 rushing and 4-10-0 receiving.

nfl week 1 2019-running back fantasy values-dfs picks-chris carson

Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks running back Chris Carson (32)

With this matchup and as the lead back of the team that ranks No. 5 in the league with a 46.4% rush rate, Carson could have a massive performance and is an option in both cash games and tournaments.

Carson is the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has elite marks with a 97% Bargain Rating and nine Pro Trends.

Todd Gurley: Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Dallas Cowboys, 49 O/U

The concerns that investors had about Gurley entering the season were definitely warranted. His per-game usage and yardage splits are beyond concerning.

  • 2017-18 (33 games): 17.5 carries, 5.6 targets, 127.3 scrimmage yards
  • 2019 (12 games): 14.8 carries, 3.3 targets, 74.1 scrimmage yards

He has gotten fewer opportunities this year and been less efficient with his touches.

But in his eight games with wide receivers Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks and tight end Tyler Higbee all healthy, he has averaged 16.2 DraftKings points.

And over the past month, he has averaged 16.5 DraftKings points — even with his 19-yard stinker in a 45-6 loss against the Ravens in Week 12.

He’s been inconsistent, but after a rough three games to open the year, he’s been much better since Week 4, putting up five fantasy RB1 performances in nine games.

For Gurley, the key is game script. This year in two blowout losses by more than 14 points, he has averaged just 10.5 touches. In his 10 other games, 18.2.

As long as the Rams don’t get embarrassed by the Cowboys and fall into a massive hole, Gurley is likely to get his opportunities.

And Gurley still has his hold on the team’s goal-line role: With his 10 touchdowns, he trails only six other running backs in scoring.

The Cowboys are about average against running backs in general, but I believe they’re exploitable: Linebacker Leighton Vander Esch (neck) has missed the past three games and is uncertain for this week, and the five backs comparable in salary to Gurley to face the Cowboys — Aaron Jones, Le’Veon Bell, James White, Devin Singletary and David Montgomery — have averaged 18.4 DraftKings points per game against them with a +5.99 Plus/Minus.

Finally, Gurley is on the positive side of his splits: In his 16 games as a road favorite with head coach Sean McVay, he has averaged 24.4 DraftKings points per game.

And maybe most importantly, at $6,000 on DraftKings, Gurley is as cheap as he’s ever been at any point in the McVay era.

Gurley is the No. 1 back in the Koerner Model for DraftKings, where he has a strong 91% Bargain Rating.

Carlos Hyde: Houston Texans (+3) at Tennessee Titans, 46 O/U

There’s not a lot to like about Hyde this week.

The Titans are No. 5 in rush defense DVOA, and Hyde is a road dog. As a player who offers almost nothing as a receiver, he’s in a bad spot.

Since the team’s Week 10 bye, he’s averaged just 13.5 opportunities per game.

Hyde has just 10.2 DraftKings points per game this year, and in only one game has he been a fantasy RB1.

But Hyde has two big factors in his favor.

First, he’s cheap at $4,500 on DraftKings, so he offers lots of roster flexibility. If you roster Hyde, you can get lots of other desirable players in your lineup. Additionally, he’s likely to have a low ownership rate, perhaps less than 1%.

And with his projected ownership rate, Hyde has a slate-high 99% Leverage Score on DraftKings, because he actually has a pretty decent ceiling projection.

Hyde is a relatively uninspiring between-the-tackles grinder, but he has a career-best 4.7 yards per carry this year as well as 15-plus opportunities in eight games, 80-plus yards in five games and a touchdown in four games.

If everything lines up just right, which is what happened against the Chiefs in Week 6, when Hyde had 130 yards and a touchdown, he could have another fantasy RB1 performance.

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carlos Hyde

The odds of that happening aren’t high, but they’re probably a lot higher than the 1% ownership rate Hyde will have. After all, he’s been a fantasy RB1 in 7.7% of his games this year.

And the Texans are No. 2 in PFF run grade: It’s not as if they have no chance to move the ball on the ground against the Titans.

Hyde is the No. 1 back in the Bales, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a good 88% Bargain Rating.

Jamaal Williams: Green Bay Packers (-4.5) vs. Chicago Bears, 40.5 O/U

Williams is coming off his worst game of the season — a scoreless 24-yard performance with just eight opportunities — so he’s likely to have a reduced ownership rate this week, and he’s yet to be rostered at even 5% in any main slate this year.

His low ownership rate is the primary reason to like him. Because Williams plays behind teammate Aaron Jones, it’s impossible to predict when he’s going to go off, but in his 36 games since becoming a regular contributor in Week 10 of the 2017 season, Williams has been a fantasy RB1 six times, good for a hit rate of 16.7%.

It’s not a pleasing thought to roster Williams, but his odds of having a big game will likely be higher than his ownership rate.

And it’s not as if Williams is a player with no upside: Over his past four games, he’s averaged 10.3 carries and 3.5 targets per week, and for the year he has six touchdowns. Plus, Williams is cheap. He hasn’t been less than $4,200 on DraftKings since Week 3.

As a home favorite, Williams could get some extra work with a run-heavy game script, and I’m bullish on the Packers in this matchup. With quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have had notable home/away against-the-spread splits (per our Bet Labs database).

  • Home: 52-30-3
  • Away: 44-41-1

At home, the Packers with Rodgers have gifted a 23.4% return on investment to ATS bettors, and in the Rodgers era (since 2008), the Packers score differential relative to their opponents has been 8.5 points higher at home than on the road. That home/away split is easily the highest in the league.

At Lambeau Field, the Packers truly have a home-field advantage.



For cheap exposure to a team that usually balls out at home, Williams is a very reasonable option.

He’s the No. 1 back in the Levitan Model for DraftKings.

Jalen Richard: Oakland Raiders (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 45.5 O/U

Starter Josh Jacobs (shoulder) missed Week 14 and is uncertain for this week. I expect he will suit up since he has a clean MRI and got in a limited practice on Wednesday.

But if he’s out, then Richard will be a cheap option to consider.

At $3,700 on DraftKings, Richard is highly unlikely to go off: He’s had only two fantasy RB1 games in his career. But last year — in the pre-Jacobs era — Richard had six fantasy RB2 performances, and if he hits that threshold this week, that might be enough to return value at his low cost.

And he has a good matchup: The Jags have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing backfields with 30.6 per game, and they are No. 31 in rush defense DVOA and No. 26 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.

I would never blaspheme by comparing Richard to Austin Ekeler, but they are similar as pass-catching backs who can also pitch in as runners, and last week Ekeler had a position-high 37.3 DraftKings points against the Jags with 8-101-0 rushing and 4-112-1 receiving.

And in Week 9, the somewhat comparable Duke Johnson scored 19.1 DraftKings points on the Jags with 7-13-1 rushing and 5-68-0 receiving.

Richards is the No. 1 back in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, where he has a strong 95% Bargain Rating.

Upside Running Backs for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers ($10,000 DK, $10,400 FD): McCaffrey is the No. 1 back in our Week 14 fantasy football rankings and easily the No. 1 fantasy back this year with 30.7 DraftKings and 25.8 FanDuel points per game. McCaffrey leads all running backs in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings ($8,900 DK, $8,500 FD): Cook has a touchdown in an NFL-high 11 of 13 games, and in his two scoreless starts, he has 167 scrimmage yards per game. Cook is on the positive side of his splits, averaging 17.2 FanDuel points per game as a favorite. The Chargers are No. 23 in rush defense DVOA and No. 24 in pass defense DVOA against running backs, and Cook has a position-high 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans ($8,500 DK, $9,400 FD): Since becoming a locked-in lead back in Week 14 last year, Henry has averaged 120.9 yards and 1.29 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. Since last year, he’s averaged 19.7 FanDuel points with a +9.05 Plus/Minus and 87.5% Consistency Rating in eight games as a home favorite. Henry has a position-high 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derrick Henry

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns ($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD): Even with the return of Kareem Hunt, Chubb has averaged 114.6 yards on 19.8 carries and 2.2 targets per game over the past five weeks.

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,600 DK, $7,700 FD): Uncle Lenny is No. 4 in the league with 1,496 scrimmage yards, and he’s on the positive side of his reverse splits, averaging 22.8 DraftKings points with a +7.61 Plus/Minus and 76.9% Consistency Rating in his 13 career games as a road underdog. The Raiders are No. 27 in rush defense DVOA and No. 30 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.

Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders ($7,000 DK, $7,700 FD): Jacobs (shoulder) missed last week but is tentatively expected to play this week. The first back selected in the 2019 draft, Jacobs has lived up to the hype with 100.6 yards and 0.58 touchdowns from scrimmage per game on a run-committed team with a 45.1% rush rate. The sample is small, but in his two games as a home favorite, Jacobs has averaged 22.2 DraftKings points.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,700 DK, $7,200 FD): Danny Woodhead 2.0 is No. 1 at the position with 66.2 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com), and even in his nine games with Melvin Gordon, Ekeler has averaged 91.2 yards and 0.56 touchdowns.

Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD): MG3 has averaged 105.2 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game since the beginning of November with more than 16 opportunities every week.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns ($6,300 DK, $6,700 FD): In his five games with the Browns, Hunt has averaged 62.2 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 6.8 carries, 5.6 targets and 4.4 receptions per game. In his 33 career games, Hunt has put up 19.3 DraftKings points game (including playoffs).

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,100 DK, $6,700 FD): Despite massively underwhelming this year, Mixon has managed 18.6 DraftKings points, 117.8 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game since the Week 9 bye, and he has a strong 94% Leverage Score on DraftKings.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,900 DK, $6,800 FD): Teammate Jordan Howard (shoulder) has missed three straight games and is uncertain for this week. In Howard’s absence, Sanders has averaged 14.7 carries and five targets per game.

Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos ($5,600 DK, $6,400 FD): Lindsay has averaged 15.5 carries and 2.5 targets per game since the Week 10 bye and is on the positive side of his reverse splits, averaging 16.5 DraftKings points with a +5.91 Plus/Minus in his nine career games as a road underdog. The Chiefs have allowed a league-high 31.9 DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD): Over the past six weeks, Montgomery has averaged 15.7 carries and 2.2 targets per game, and the Packers have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to running backs with 28.4 per game.

James White, New England Patriots ($5,400 DK, $6,800 FD): Since 2016, when White became a regular contributor in the Pats offense, he’s averaged 13.6 DraftKings points and 10.5 opportunities in his 63 games with quarterback Tom Brady. The Bengals are No. 28 in rush defense DVOA and No. 29 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.

Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers ($5,200 DK, $7,500 FD): Over the past two weeks, Mostert has led the 49ers backfield with 40-plus snaps and 12-plus opportunities in each game. In his five career games with at a dozen carries and targets, Mostert has averaged 18.2 DraftKings points. The 49ers have a slate-high 29-point implied Vegas total. I’m actually considering Mostert in cash games.

Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals ($5,000 DK, $6,200 FD): Drake has averaged 13 carries and 5.2 targets per game since joining the Cardinals in Week 9, and the Browns are No. 26 in PFF run defense grade.

DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders ($4,700 DK, $6,300 FD): Starter Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is uncertain for this weekend, but he seems likely to play. If he’s out, Washington will be a viable option in all formats as a home favorite with a good matchup. Last week, Washington racked up 21.6 DraftKings points on 14-53-1 rushing and 6-43-0 receiving in Jacobs’ absence.

Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,600 DK, $5,800 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Jones has averaged 10.4 carries and 3.6 targets per game. He makes for an intriguing low-owned tournament pivot play on Patrick Laird. The Lions have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing backfields with 30.2 per game.

Patrick Laird, Miami Dolphins ($4,500 DK, $5,500 FD): Over the past two weeks, the undrafted fourth-string rookie has averaged 14.5 DraftKings points on 12.5 carries and five targets per game. A legitimate talent with back-to-back 1,200-yard seasons in college and serious receiving prowess with his 84.2% catch rate, Laird has a position-high +3.07 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.

Adrian Peterson, Washington Redskins ($4,400 DK, $6,300 FD): Teammate Derius Guice (knee, IR) suffered an injury early in Week 14 and is out for the year, so Peterson will be the clear lead back this week. In his five mostly Guice-less starts since interim HC Bill Callahan took over in Week 6, Peterson has averaged 105.2 yards on 20 opportunities per game.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Saquon Barkley
Photo credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

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About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.