Every NFL team is back in action this week with all the bye weeks behind us and 16 games scheduled throughout the weekend. With just four weeks left, we’re in the final quarter of the season with plenty of exciting storylines across the NFL. This week, there is a Monday Night Football double-header to enjoy, leaving us a robust 12-game schedule on Sunday afternoon on the DraftKings main slate. Just like each of the last three weeks, there are seven games kicking off at 1:00 p.m. ET, but this week, there are five games in the later window instead of the three games at that time the last few weeks.
The highest over/under on Sunday’s slate is from the Bills and Lions, clashing in the late window at 54.5 after both teams were in high-scoring contests. last week. The Lions have the second-highest implied team total, just ahead of the Bills in third, but it’s actually the Ravens that have the highest implied team total as they return from their bye week to face the Giants. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 15. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Kyler Murray ($6,000) Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) vs. New England Patriots (45.5 total)
The Cardinals come into this week needing a bounce-back win after three straight tough losses to the Seahawks, Vikings, and Seahawks again. Murray struggled with turnovers last week, but our projections point to him having a great bounce-back spot against the Patriots.
He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks this week in an evenly-blended, three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Raybon, and THE BLITZ. Koerner actually has him second behind Justin Herbert while THE BLITZ gives Cooper Rush the top value spot, but Raybon gives the edge to Kyler, who also holds the top in the aggregate.
Murray ended up just barely exceeding salary-based expectations last week, finishing with 259 passing yards and two passing touchdowns to go with 16 rushing yards. He was a disappointing 1-6 on pass attempts in the red zone.
This season, Kyler has averaged 18.2 DraftKings points per game with his rushing production giving him both a higher floor and a higher ceiling. He has four rushing scores and 15 passing touchdowns in his 13 games.
He had a huge game against the Jets with 28.74 DraftKings points right before the team’s bye week and three-game skid. He’ll look to get back to that kind of production in another matchup against the AFC East as his Cardinals host the Patriots. Quarterbacks have averaged 227.15 passing yards per game against New England, throwing multiple touchdowns in three straight games and five of their last six games.
Murray matches five Pro Trends this week, tying him with Josh Allen for the most at the position. In this bounce-back spot, he’s a solid play at only $6,000.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Khalil Shakir ($6,100) Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Detroit Lions (54.4 total)
The three sets of projections vary wildly at receiver with different value options popping in each set of numbers. Shakir has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the aggregated projections, ranking in the top five in both THE BLITZ projections and Koerner’s projections.
This should be a wildly entertaining game to watch, with plenty of fantasy points on both sides, so Shakir’s ceiling is very attractive. He has become the go-to for Josh Allen in the Bills offense and is averaging 8.6 targets per game over his last seven contests, with at least seven targets in each matchup. He had five catches for 106 yards and a touchdown last week to post 24.6 DraftKings points against the Rams. That was just his third touchdown of the year and his second game with 100+ yards, but both have come during his strong seven-game stretch.
The Lions are a tough matchup, but opposing receivers have had success against them. No Packers receivers got into the end zone last week, but Bears’ receivers had three scores the week before. In each of the last three weeks, receivers have totaled over 160 yards against the Lions, raising their average on the year to 185.9 yards per game. Since Shakir has been getting most of the Bills’ production at that spot, he has a high ceiling this week.
Shakir isn’t quite elite yet, with his inconsistencies from week to week, but he has a very high ceiling if the Bills get into another high-scoring contest this week. Getting him at just over $6,000 is a good play to consider, and if you’re expecting another big game from Allen, Shakir is a great stacking play.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Chuba Hubbard ($6,500) Carolina Panthers (-2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (43 total)
Hubbard and the Panthers have looked much better since going back to Bryce Young ($5,300) at QB. They’ve come close to some upsets against good teams and now get a soft landing spot at home against the Cowboys, who will be on a short week. In this favorable matchup, Hubbard has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate projections and the highest of all options under $7,000. He takes the top spot in Projected Plus/Minus using either Raybon’s or Koerner’s projections.
Since Week 8, Hubbard has over 15 DraftKings points in four of his five games, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those four contests. His one down week during that stretch was against the Bucs when he lost more work to rookie Jonathon Brooks. Brooks was lost for the season last week with a knee injury, securing Hubbard a full workload against the Eagles and most likely going forward.
Hubbard had 20.7 DraftKings points last week by taking 26 carries for 92 rushing yards and adding 15 receiving yards on four catches. His rushing touchdown gives him nine scores in 13 games this season while helping him raise his average to 16.3 DraftKings points per contest.
The Cowboys gave up another running back touchdown last week against the Bengals and have allowed 16 running back scores in their 13 games this season. Running backs have averaged 98.9 rushing yards and 40.5 receiving yards per game against Dallas, and the Cowboys lost another key piece on defense with the season-ending injury to DeMarvion Overshown.
With a big workload and great matchup, Hubbard is a value to definitely include in your early lineup builds this week.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Stone Smartt ($2,600) Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (45.5 total)
Sometimes, weird things happen, causing fantasy options to pop up out of seemingly nowhere. If you’re a fan of that kind of fantasy option, here’s a good one for you in Week 14–Stone Smartt. Smartt had three catches all season before stepping in for an injured Will Dissly (shoulder) last week. With Hayden Hurst (hip) still on IR without any updates and Dissly now expected to miss multiple weeks, Smartt suddenly is lined up for a big role this week as the Chargers host the Bucs.
Smartt posted an elite 93.44 grade on Pro Football Focus, showing very promising upside with two catches of over 20 yards each on the Chargers’ big drives in the third quarter. He matched his season total coming into the game by finishing with three catches for 54 yards in the Chargers’ last-second loss to the Chiefs. The third-year tight end from Old Dominion had multiple catches in three of his last four games last season but was buried on the depth chart after the offseason acquisitions of Dissly and Hurst.
Tight ends have averaged 70.5 yards per game against the Bucs this year, and last week both Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer found room to operate. Especially if Ladd McConkey (knee/shoulder) is out again, Smartt is a fantasy football sleeper who could carry the week from this extremely affordable price point. If you use him at FLEX or TE, he gives you plenty of salary to use at other roster spots.
