In Week 15, the NFL has three games on Saturday in addition to the usual primetime matchups, which leaves a very nice 10-game Sunday afternoon DFS slate on DraftKings. Just like last week, seven games will kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET, and three more games will start in the later window, headlined by the Cowboys taking on the Bills in Buffalo.
The playoff races are heating up, and there are plenty of storylines to follow. With 20 teams in the player pool, there are also plenty of different ways to consider constructing your Week 15 NFL DFS squad. The highest over/under on the slate comes from that Cowboys-Bills matchup, with the Rams-Commanders and Cardinals-49ers games not far behind. The highest implied team total belongs to the 49ers, who have reeled five straight dominant wins coming out of their bye week.
As you start your prep for Sunday’s slate, let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 9, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Brock Purdy ($6,800) San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) at Arizona Cardinals (48 total)
Despite his recent success, Purdy is only the seventh-most expensive quarterback this week on DraftKings, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback in both the FantasyLabs projection and THE BLITZ projections. He also has the most Pts/Sal at the position in each of those projections.
Purdy has gone from an amazing underdog story to one of the top MVP candidates and has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games while leading his team to the top of the NFC. In each of his last six games, Purdy has completed at least 70% of his passes and has averaged 314.2 passing yards per contest. He has at least 296 yards in all but one of those games and has thrown multiple touchdowns in four of his last five games, with 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions during that span.
The 49ers have the highest implied team total on Sunday’s slate, and they get a juicy matchup against the Cardinals, who rank in the top 10 in DraftKings points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Quarterbacks have thrown 22 touchdowns in 12 games against the Cardinals this season, averaging 233.9 passing yards per contest. They held Kenny Pickett in check in Week 13 but were shredded by Matthew Stafford the week before.
The 49ers have their sights set on the top seed in the NFC, and they’ve been on a different level since returning from their bye week five games ago. In this perfect system for him, Purdy is still underpriced and in a great matchup to bring a high ceiling this Sunday.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Garrett Wilson ($5,800) New York Jets (+8.5) at Miami Dolphins (39 total)
In the FantasyLabs projections, THE BLITZ projections, and Chris Raybon’s projections, Garrett Wilson ranks in the top three at wide receiver in both Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus. Wilson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in an even three-way aggregated blend of those three projections and brings the highest ceiling, median and floor projection of all receivers under $6,900.
Wilson had a huge game last week against the Texans, catching 9 of 14 targets for 108 yards. He didn’t get into the end zone but had two targets and a carry in the red zone. He remains the team’s top pass-catching option and should continue to get plenty of looks as the primary playmaker as the Jets try to keep up with the Dolphins in Miami this week.
Last week’s return of Zach Wilson was a big boost to Garrett Wilson, and even though Wilson is far from perfect, he’s a big improvement from Tim Boyle. If Wilson to Wilson continues to be a focus this week, Garrett should have a high ceiling since there is space to be found against the Dolphins, as the Titans proved on Monday night football last week.
Opposing wide receivers have averaged 13.6 catches per game against Miami this season and have scored 13 touchdowns while producing over 150 receiving yards per game.
Wilson brings an elite ceiling from under $6,000, but if you’re looking for ultra-cheap plays, the blended projections are very high on the Giants tandem of Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton and the Rams’ Demarcus Robinson.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Chuba Hubbard ($5,600) Carolina Panthers (+3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (35 total)
Hubbard has taken on a larger workload over the last few weeks, and he has been able to gather some good momentum coming into this week’s home game against the Falcons. Hubbard has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on Sunday’s slate in the three-way blended projections and the highest of all the options priced under $6,000 at running back. He is third in Projected Plus/Minus using Raybon’s projections and fourth in THE BLITZ projections.
As the season has gone on, Hubbard has been growing into more work in the backfield, while Miles Sanders has continued to struggle. Sanders actually had a good week last week against the Saints, but it was still Hubbard who got most of the work in the backfield. He has played at least 65% of the team’s snaps in each of the last three weeks, and Interim head coach Chris Tabor seems especially committed to sticking with the run game and giving Hubbard plenty of work. That should help take some of the pressure off rookie quarterback Bryce Young and also continue to give Hubbard the potential for big games.
Hubbard has at least 92 scrimmage yards in three consecutive weeks and has scored three touchdowns during that span while averaging 19.1 DraftKings points per week. Hubbard has multiple catches in six of his last seven games as well, so he brings a little added production as a receiver out of the backfield.
When the Panthers faced the Falcons in Week 1, Hubbard had 60 yards on just nine carries, and he has the potential for much more after getting 25 and 23 carries in the last two weeks. Opposing running backs have averaged over 115 rushing plus receiving yards against the Falcons this season, although they have only scored four touchdowns in 12 games.
With his extra work in what should be a close game, Hubbard has good upside as a value play this week.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Trey McBride ($5,200) Arizona Cardinals (+13.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (48 total)
He’s baaaaack! McBride has been a regular at this spot since breaking out midway through the season, and he is back as a top value play this week after Arizona’s bye week. At some point, his salary will catch up to his production, but this week doesn’t appear to be that week. McBride has the top Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at tight end in the blended projections, and he also matches seven Pro Trends, which is the second-most of all tight ends on the slate.
Part of the reason for McBride’s emergence as a great weekly option is that he consistently gets a lot of volume in the Arizona passing game. He has at least seven targets in four straight games since the return of Kyler Murray and has averaged 8.8 targets over the last six weeks. Before the bye week, he scored his second touchdown of the season as part of an eight-catch, 89-yard game in Pittsburgh.
McBride has averaged 16.7 DraftKings points per game over his last six games and has been especially good at home, with at least seven catches and 13.0 DraftKings points in three straight home games.
While the 49ers defense is outstanding, opposing tight ends have had some big games against them. McBride had just one catch for five yards in their Week 4 meeting, but his former teammate and starting tight end at the time, Zach Ertz had six catches for 53 yards. On the season, opposing tight ends have averaged 4.5 catches for 37.2 yards against the 49ers. Last week, the Seahawks’ tight ends had 66 yards and a touchdown against San Francisco, so it’s definitely not a “must avoid” matchup.
McBride’s emergence is projected to continue, so he’s worth considering if you have the salary available. If you need a cheap play, Chigoziem Okonkwo and Tyler Conklin are both very affordable and rank just behind McBride in Projected Plus/Minus in the three-way projections.
