As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players long term.
Each week in 2022, I’ll look at the winning lineup in DraftKings Millionaire Maker Contest with an eye for how the lucky winner arrived at the lineup that took it down. We’ll focus on the key lessons of the winning lineup — and maybe even some mistakes to avoid.
While a high degree of positive variance is necessary to win a contest of this size (the standard $20 contests have over 236,000 entrants, there’s still a large amount of skill involved to get to a position to benefit from that variance.
Here’s Week 14’s winner:
The Lineup
User gordonjonathan1 is this week’s lucky winner, turning a portfolio of 14 lineups into just over a million dollars. Their lineups were a diverse group, with this being the only entry to finish in the top 25,000 entries.
As always, information on every DFS contest is available with the FantasyLabs Contest Dashboard Tool. It’s an important resource to review what worked, what didn’t, and what the top pros are doing on a weekly basis.
The Stack(s)
Jacksonville’s offense had been picking up steam lately, with Trevor Lawrence topping salary-based expectations in three of his four contests heading into Week 14. This one set up particularly well for Lawrence since the Titans have faced one of the league’s highest opponent pass rates. Tennesee is an extreme pass funnel, with the top-rated defense against the run but 28th against the pass.
Therefore, it made perfect sense to stack Trevor Lawrence. Since he doesn’t tend to produce much on the ground, a double stack made sense as well — especially when it could be had so cheaply. Zay Jones and Evan Engram cost just $8,000 combined, with Engram also taking care of the tight end spot.
Engram ended up having a career day with an 11/142/2 line. Those are obviously hard to predict, but it’s yet another example of avoiding chalky tight ends. Jones has a very strong day as well, though was held back by Engram catching two of the three available touchdowns.
They brought the stack back with Derrick Henry, who looked to be on pace for a monster game (96 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter) before cooling off. That hot start was enough to keep Henry lineups in contention, and it also put the Jaguars behind, leading to even more passing from Lawrence.
This stack was built around the Titans playing from in front and feeding Derrick Henry while the Jags took to the skies to catch up. While the final score of the game doesn’t reflect it, that was the case long enough that this stack went off.
The Chalk
Justin Jefferson is one of the NFL’s top receivers, and he had an excellent matchup. The Lions-Vikings game had the highest total on the slate, with Detroit struggling in pass defense all year. Jefferson’s upside in that spot was well worth the ownership, especially when paired with a less popular stack.
Outside of Jefferson and Henry, the only member of this roster with double-digit ownership was Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy wasn’t exactly chalk at 11.3% but was on the popular side. The Broncos have been wrecked by injuries this season at wide receiver, leading to targets concentrating among whichever players are healthy.
While Denver’s offense has struggled this season, a matchup with the explosive Chiefs usually means that the volume will be there. And it was, with Jeudy drawing nine targets. That those turned into three scores is a 0.1% outcome, but that’s what it takes to win a Milly Maker. While Jeudy was popular, he was also solid leverage over teammate Greg Dulcich. Dulcich was the most heavily owned tight end (and scored just 7.2 points).
The Sleepers
There were plenty of low-owned plays on this roster, even outside of the main stack. Miles Sanders goes overlooked seemingly every week, thanks to the split backfield in Philadelphia and Jalen Hurts taking some of the rushing opportunities. However, the Eagles run the ball at such a high rate there’s still plenty of work for Sanders.
He’s top eight in rushing attempts in the NFL this season and top 10 in PPR scoring. With a matchup against a 31st-ranked Giants run defense, he was a sharp play. This was the third 30+ point performance for Sanders on the season.
Jerick McKinnon was more of a surprise here. He took over as the passing-down back for the Chiefs (against Jeudy’s Broncos), and the role paid off in a big way. With Denver’s secondary limiting Travis Kelce and the wide receivers, McKinnon saw a season-high nine targets. While those won’t usually turn into 112 yards and two scores, they did this week.
Finally, this lineup used a less popular defense, with the Niners coming in under seven percent. Dallas was the chalk, with almost 35% ownership. San Francisco outscored Dallas by six points while coming in $600 cheaper. We say it every week but fade the chalk defense.
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