The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
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Texans at Colts
The Colts will host the Texans as 5.5-point favorites this Sunday. The Colts are currently implied to score 26.25 points and the Texans are currently implied to score 20.75 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Last week was historical for Glock Osweiler. Not only did he throw for over 200 yards, but he also threw two touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was the first time this season that he’s thrown for more than 100 yards while also throwing at least one touchdown and zero interceptions. Alright, that’s enough praise for Osweiler, who has arguably been the single-worst quarterback in the league this season:
Per playerprofiler.com, Osweiler ranks outside of the top-32 QBs in nearly every efficiency statistic imaginable. He somehow ranks 43rd in passer rating. Even against a Colts defense that has allowed the third-most average fantasy points per game to QBs this season, Osweiler is the lowest-rated QB in our Cash Model and isn’t a recommended fantasy option.
RB – Lamar Miller
Miller couldn’t get anything going against the elite Packers run defense last week but should have an easier time this week against the Colts. D’Qwell Jackson, the team’s starting inside linebacker and leading tackler, was suspended on Tuesday and will miss the remainder of the regular season. Even with Jackson, the Colts defense has regularly been gashed by running backs all season:
Per our Trends tool, running backs who have averaged at least 10 carries per game this season have posted a +4.29 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and have averaged 17.77 DK points against the Colts. Miller’s best game of the season came during the Texans’ first matchup against the Colts: He racked up 178 total yards and two touchdowns. He’s priced at $5,100 on DraftKings with an 87 percent Bargain Rating and has five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
RB – Alfred Blue and Akeem Hunt
Blue could return to the lineup this week but isn’t expected to have a large enough role to warrant fantasy consideration. Hunt has just two touches over the past two weeks and also shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins scored his first touchdown since Week 5 last week, but he has still failed to surpass 75 receiving yards in a game since Week 2. His average of 9.4 targets per game ranks ninth among all wide receivers this season, but it’s hard to believe he’ll turn things around based on his brutal efficiency through 13 weeks. Hopkins has averaged 1.3 fantasy points and 5.8 yards per target this season – marks that rank outside of the top 90 among all wide receivers. He’s priced at $5,800 on DK with six Pro Trends and could be shadowed by Vontae Davis – PFF’s 17th-lowest graded cornerback this season out of 122 qualified corners.
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller’s strong start to the season has come to an abrupt halt. He hasn’t surpassed 60 receiving yards in a game or scored a touchdown since Week 4. Part of the blame can be placed on Fuller, as his five drops are the 10th-most among all WRs with at least 50 targets this season, per teamrankings.com. Still, he’s had limited opportunities to showcase his elite speed, as Osweiler has completed just 18.6 percent of his passes thrown 20 yards or farther in the air this season – the 34th-highest mark among all quarterbacks, per playerprofiler.com. Fuller is priced at $4,500 on DK and his 2.1-point projected floor is the fourth-lowest mark among all WRs priced over $4,000 on DK.
WR – Braxton Miller and Jaelen Strong
Miller (shoulder) is out for Week 14. Strong (ankle) has been placed on Injured Reserve and is out for the year.
Playing as the Texans WR3 will be Keith Mumphery, whose game is as boring as his name.
TE – C.J. Fiedorowicz
Fiedorowicz hasn’t been targeted fewer than five times in a game since Week 3, but he’s been lacking fantasy-friendly targets all season. He ranks 22nd among all tight ends with just six red-zone targets this season and his five-yard aDOT is the seventh-lowest mark among all TEs, per PFF. Still, the Colts haven’t had an answer to tight ends all season and have allowed 5.5 DK points above salary-based expectations to the position over the past 12 months. Fiedorowicz is priced at $3,900 on DK with zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership, although his 1.9-point projected floor is the second-lowest mark among all TEs priced over $3,500.
Indianapolis Colts
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Andrew Luck
Luck was magnificent during the Colts’ Monday night win over the Jets, as he repeatedly burned the over-matched secondary down the field. Finally given time to throw, Luck completed all seven of his passes thrown at least 10 yards in the air for 151 yards and two touchdowns, per PFF. His fondness for throwing the ball downfield has been on display all season long, as he’s just one of six quarterbacks to have an aDOT of 10 yards or more. The Texans are among the bottom-12 defenses in total quarterback pressures this season, per sportingcharts.com, so the Colts’ troubled offensive line may be able to give Luck a chance to take some shots down the field. He’s priced at $6,900 on DK with a 29.1-point projected ceiling, although his 13-16 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is tied for the highest mark among all QBs.
RB – Frank Gore
Gore has now averaged under four yards per carry in five of his last six games. His primary issue has been his lack of explosiveness. It’s no surprise that a 33-year-old running back has struggled to create big plays: Sure enough, his 2.2 percent breakaway run rate (percentage of carries of 15-plus yards) ranks 68th among all RBs this season. It’s been known that Gore can’t rip off big runs anymore, but he’s also struggled to create yards after contact. Per PFF, his average of 2.0 yards after contact per rush is the 11th-worst mark among 71 qualified RBs this season. Any exposure to Gore should be focused on FanDuel, where his $6,000 price tag comes with an 89 percent Bargain Rating and 11 Pro Trends. Keep an eye on the status of Jadeveon Clowney, as he missed last week’s game but has been graded as the sixth-best edge defender against the run this season by PFF.
RB – Robert Turbin
Turbin’s six touches during the Colts’ blowout win over the Jets on Monday night were his most since Week 6. He won’t be a recommended fantasy option unless Gore is forced to miss some time.
WR – T.Y. Hilton
Hilton torched the Jets’ secondary last Monday night, as he converted his 10 targets into a 9-146-0 line. He appeared to be fully recovered from his back injury and now finds himself in a matchup that he has historically thrived in:
Per our Trends tool, Hilton has posted a +3.77 Plus/Minus with 57.1 percent Consistency and has averaged 18.6 DK points during his 14 games as a home favorite of three-plus points over the past three seasons. This week, he’ll face a Texans defense that ranks just 17th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against No. 1 WRs. Hilton will likely see a lot of slot cornerback Kareem Jackson, PFF’s 87th-highest graded cornerback this season. He’s priced at $7,600 on FD with a 97 percent Bargain Rating, although his 17-20 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is the fourth-highest mark among all WRs.
WR – Donte Moncrief
Moncrief just can’t stop scoring touchdowns. He’s now scored 10 touchdowns during his last 13 games with Luck under center, although he hasn’t surpassed 65 receiving yards in a game this season. The result has been a consistent receiver who hasn’t yet scored over 20 DK points in a game. Moncrief has exceeded his salary-based expectations in five of his six full games this season, but there’s a reason why his 23.5-point projected ceiling is the lowest mark among all WRs priced over $5,500 on DK. He’s priced at $6,300 on DK with a -0.55 Projected Plus/Minus and could see a lot of A.J. Bouye, PFF’s third-highest graded cornerback this season.
WR – Phillip Dorsett
In a game in which the Colts scored 41 points against one of the worst secondaries in the league, Dorsett was targeted once and didn’t record a reception. He hasn’t surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game or scored a touchdown since Week 4 and isn’t a recommended fantasy option this week.
TE – Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle
Allen erupted on Monday night, converting his four targets into a 4-72-3 line. Still, Doyle had just as many targets. The Colts seem set on continuing to utilize both tight ends on a weekly basis and this week they’ll face a Texans defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest average fantasy points per game to the position this season. Allen is the cheaper option on DK this week and his $2,600 price tag comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and five Pro Trends.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
