The Week 14 NFL Dashboard
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Raiders at Chiefs
The Chiefs are currently three-point home favorites for their Week 14 divisional matchup against the Raiders. The game total is the third-highest of the week at 47.5 points, and the Chiefs are currently implied to score 25.75 points to the Raiders’ 21.75.
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Derek Carr
Carr has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this season, but his injured pinky finger really seemed to be a factor in Week 13. Carr still ranks among the top-15 quarterbacks in completion percentage, deep-ball completion percentage, and completion percentage when pressured through 13 weeks. He’s in a tough spot against the Chiefs, who rank 12th in QB Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders. According to our Trends tool, Carr has historically struggled in late-season divisional matchups:
That’s pretty common: Quarterbacks on FanDuel at comparable salaries as a whole typically perform below salary-based expectations when facing a division rival for the second time in a season:
RB – Latavius Murray
Murray checks all the boxes for a GPP running back. He is underpriced relative to his volume and red-zone usage, active in the passing game, and has been criminally under-owned. He has six touchdowns over his last four games, exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last six, and his price actually went down $300 on FD this week. He leads all players with 16 touches inside the 10-yard line over the past four games:
RB – DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, and Jamize Olawale
Too talented to ignore, too limited to roster, too productive to allow Latavius a real chance to be a workhorse, this trio of terror is the DFS WOAT.
WR – Amari Cooper
Cooper is significantly more expensive than Crabtree on both sites despite owning a lower market share of targets and a -2.02 DK Plus/Minus in the past month. That said, the upside is definitely there for tournaments because of his talent, and he boasts the highest-projected ceiling among WRs this week on FD. He’ll likely come with lower ownership than he should have in large-field tournaments; it’s a good spot to capitalize on recency bias in a matchup against the Chiefs, who rank 25th in DVOA to opposing WR1s this year. Per John Proctor’s WR/CB column, he should avoid CB Marcus Peters.
WR – Michael Crabtree
Crabtree has a top-20 target share in the league this year and is first in contested catch rate – 84.6 percent on 13 targets. With a 97 percent Bargain Rating on FD, Crabtree is a viable play in all formats at $6,200. He comes with a lot of touchdown equity on a weekly basis: He’s owned 30 percent of the Raiders’ receiving touchdowns in the past year. He’s currently the No. 7 WR in the Bales Model for FD, where he comes with a +3.50 Projected Plus/Minus and six Pro Trends.
WR – Seth Roberts
It’s the same old story with Roberts: Carr looks to him in the red zone, but he is not a focal point in the Raiders offense. He has a scary projected floor of 1.0 point on FD and a ceiling of just 12.8 points in Week 14.
TE – Clive Walford
Walford has had a limited impact this season and has more than three catches in a game just once all year.
Kansas City Chiefs
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Alex Smith
In general, cheap quarterbacks playing on Thursday not named Matthew Stafford are typically bad investments. Add in the fact that most quarterbacks and wide receivers see a decrease in production the second time they face a division foe and there’s more reason for skepticism. However, in true Alex Smith fashion, he’s an outlier: He typically performs better in the division the second time around:
Smith’s not fun to roster in DFS, but he’s in consideration at $5,400 on FanDuel against a Raiders defense in the bottom-12 of FD points allowed per game. That said, Smith is in the uncomfortable middle ground of having a floor (10.5 points) too low for cash games and a ceiling (23.2) too low for GPPs.
RB – Spencer Ware
The total yards weren’t there, but Ware got back on track in Week 13 with two touchdowns after really struggling over the past month:
This was likely due to the emergence of wide receiver Tyreek Hill and the lack of downfield passing with WR Jeremy Maclin out. That said, Maclin should be back on Thursday, which will be a boost for the Chiefs offense as a whole. Ware’s matchup is a positive one: He gets an Oakland team that was just shredded for 191 total yards by LeSean McCoy and two touchdowns from Mike Gillislee last week. They now rank 28th in rushing DVOA, and Ware is currently the fifth-highest rated running back in our Tournament Model on FD. He boasts the position’s fifth-highest ceiling, fourth-highest floor, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Charcandrick West
West played just 22 percent of the snaps in Week 13 and was out-touched by Ware 17 to one.
WR – Jeremy Maclin
Maclin (groin) was a full participant in practice this week and all signs point toward his return against the Raiders. The Chiefs’ so-called aerial attack has been very stagnant without Maclin, but it wasn’t great with him either: He ranks outside the top-75 in fantasy points per target this year (1.42). His average depth of target (aDot) has actually gone up from 10.6 to 12.6 this year, but the efficiency has dropped: He’s averaging 0.19 fantasy points per touch compared to 0.31 last season. Even if he does suit up, he has a tough matchup against outside CBs Sean Smith and David Amerson — PFF’s 10th- and 17th-highest graded cornerbacks this season.
WR – Tyreek Hill
Tyfreek came down to earth last week but still had a solid 12.2 DraftKings points on six targets. With Maclin sidelined for the last month, Hill has piled up 8.5 targets per game over his last four. If Maclin plays, Hill will see a large downgrade in usage and will be a risky endeavor in cash games this week. His splits with and without Maclin are stark:
WR – Albert Wilson and Chris Conley
Over the last five weeks, Wilson has 29 targets and two TDs but only 28 yards per game. Conley has 21 targets, ‘good’ for 94 yards. These guys matter, but in a bigger sense . . . they don’t matter. And now with Maclin potentially back, they matter even less.
TE – Travis Kelce
Kelce has ripped off three straight 100-yard games without Maclin in the picture. He doesn’t stand out from a ratings perspective in any of our Player Models, but he does have the second-highest projected ceiling on both slates in Week 14. If safety Karl Joseph is ultimately unable to play, Kelce should be upgraded, as Pro Football Focus has Joseph graded as the 17th-best cover safety in the league this season. Kelce has been arguably the most dangerous tight end in the league with the ball in his hands, as he’s averaging a position-high 4.8 yards after the catch per target through 13 weeks. He’s priced at $6,500 on FanDuel with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and leads all tight ends with nine FanDuel Pro Trends. He’s still viable in cash games, but, with Maclin back in the picture, he’s a bit more risky this week.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
