NFL DFS Week 14 Main Slate Picks Breakdown: Plenty of Options in Vikings-Lions

NFL Week 14 features a 10-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud

This slate features some of the top quarterbacks in fantasy, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes all available to choose from. However, Allen and Mahomes have two of the toughest possible matchups. Allen owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -7.4 vs. the Jets, while Mahomes has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -11.8.

That makes Hurts the clear top choice of this trio. He’s taking on the Giants, who have been one of the worst defensive teams in football this season. They rank 28th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and they’re also 27th against the run. That means Hurts should be able to rack up points with his arm and his legs.

Hurts has been one of the most consistent performers in fantasy this season, scoring at least 21.02 DraftKings points in all but two games. He’s also displayed an elite ceiling, going for at least 30.6 DraftKings points four times. That includes each of his past two outings.

Hurts owns the top ceiling projection in THE BLITZ, and it’s not even particularly close. Allen is the only other quarterback within even seven fantasy points, and he’s still pretty far behind. Hurts is also currently projected for less than 8% ownership on DraftKings, making him an elite tournament option.

Value

While paying up at QB is always a good idea in tournaments, spending down at the position is typically advised for cash games. That’s the case this week on DraftKings, where Jared Goff stands out as the best per-dollar option at the position.

Goff is coming off an excellent performance last week vs. the Jaguars, finishing with 340 passing yards and two touchdowns. Goff hasn’t had the best fantasy season, but he’s capable of taking advantage of strong matchups.

The Lions’ matchup vs. the Vikings in Week 14 definitely qualifies. They’re just 24th in pass defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed the second-most yards per game in general this season. The total on this contest sits at a slate-high 51.5 points, and the Lions’ implied team total of 26.75 ranks second on the slate.

Goff also stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings. His 58% Bargain Rating doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s tied for the top mark among quarterbacks.

Quick Hits

The top implied team total of the week belongs to the Cowboys, who get a matchup vs. the reeling Texans. They’re massive 17.5-point favorites, which could scare some people off Dak Prescott. However, the Cowboys likely can’t build up a big lead without Prescott playing well, and he’s historically thrived as a big favorite. He has 17 previous starts as a home favorite of at least a touchdown, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.84 in those contests (per the Trends tool).

Despite the tough matchup, Allen is worth some consideration at $8,700 on FanDuel. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, which is the top mark at the position. This has historically been too cheap of a salary for Allen, who has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.54 with a comparable price tag.

This best pure matchup of the week belongs to Ryan Tannehill, who will face the same Jaguars defense that Goff shredded last week. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.8 on FanDuel, and no other quarterback is above +2.9. He’s projected for virtually no ownership, so he’s another interesting tournament option at a really cheap salary.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud

Sticking with the Titans, Derrick Henry has been priced down to just $7,900 on DraftKings. That said, it has been 100% deserved. The Big Dog has not looked like the same player of late, averaging a paltry 2.77 yards per carry over his past four games. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of those contests, with the lone exception being a 28-carry game against the Packers.

Perhaps a matchup vs. the Jaguars will be just what the doctor ordered. The Jaguars haven’t been nearly as bad against the run as they have against the pass, but this is a matchup that Henry has historically dominated. He’s averaged more than 100 rushing yards in 11 career matchups vs. the Jaguars, and if you remove the two games from his rookie season, he’s averaged nearly 120. Overall, Henry has averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.79 against Jacksonville, and he’s scored at least 28.0 DraftKings points in three of their past four matchups.

Of course, his track record doesn’t guarantee future success, but he’s tough to overlook at his reduced price tag. Henry has only had a comparable salary in eight previous games, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.90. Add it all up, and Henry stands out as a prime buy-low target on this slate.

Value

There are plenty of excellent values to consider at the position this week. In THE BLITZ, five of the top six running backs in terms of projected DraftKings Plus/Minus are priced at $6,000 or less. Henry is the lone exception, so grabbing a couple of these options makes plenty of sense in cash games.

D’Andre Swift is my favorite option of the bunch. He’s been off the field more than on it this season, but he finally got back to being the Lions’ top running back option in Week 14. He’s played on just 32% of the snaps and had just 19% of the team’s carries in 2022-23, but those figures jumped up to 51% and 45% last week. Swift already provides elite production as a receiver – he’s been targeted on 25% of his routes run – so he should provide excellent fantasy value if he can maintain his rushing numbers from last week.

It’s easy to write off Swift’s expanded role due to the game script, with the Lions leading the Jaguars by at least four points for 90% of their offensive snaps last week. However, Swift had a 49% snap share in the first half, so his numbers weren’t necessarily inflated by garbage time. Swift was always expected to be a big part of the Lions’ offense this season, but injuries have turned him into a bit player.

Hopefully, Week 14 was just a preview of what is going to come down the stretch.

Quick Hits

Latavius Murray, Travis Homer, and Rachaad White are the other sub-$6K backs that stand out on DraftKings. Murray has taken over as the Broncos’ clear top running back, and he draws and excellent matchup this week vs. the Chiefs. Homer has the potential to see a significant increase in snaps if Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas are unable to play, and he’s a reliable pass-catcher out of the backfield. White maintained a significant role in the Bucs’ offense last week despite the return of Leonard Fournette, racking up eight targets.

You can make a case for all three players at their current price tags.

Joe Mixon will return to the Bengals’ lineup this week, and he couldn’t ask for a better matchup. The Browns have been horrendous against the run all year, ranking 31st in rush defense DVOA. It’s possible that Samaje Perine has earned a larger role moving forward, but Mixon should still be the clear lead back in the Bengals’ offense. He’s way too cheap on DraftKings, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Saquon Barkley is an interesting pay-up option on FanDuel, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s currently questionable vs. the Eagles, but if he suits up, he has some appeal in this matchup. The Eagles have looked significantly better against the run after signing Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh, but Barkley basically is the entire Giants’ offense.

Even in a tough matchup, his ceiling is as high as anyone’s.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud

We’re not done targeting the Lions just yet. Amon-Ra St. Brown has gotten priced up over the past few weeks, but he’s still too cheap across the industry. He ranks first at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

ARSB has an elite profile. He’s racked up at least a 31% target share in each of the past four weeks, and while he’s not a huge down-field threat, he’s also had at least 32% of the team’s air yards in all four contests. He also remains the most heavily targeted high-volume receiver in terms of targets per route run.

ARSB has put together two monster performances in back-to-back weeks, scoring 30.9 DraftKings points vs. the Bills and 37.6 DraftKings points vs. the Jaguars. The Vikings rank 29th in DVOA vs. No. 1 receivers, and Pro Football Focus gives him the second-largest matchup advantage of the entire week. Overall, there’s no reason the party has to stop in Week 14.

Value

Just like at running back, there is an abundance of strong values to target at receiver this week. However, the Texans stand out as arguably the best option. They’re going to be without both Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins in a game where they are expected to trail throughout. They’ve also made the switch back to Davis Mills at quarterback, who is worlds better than Davis Mills.

Phillip Dorsett ran the most routes among the Texans’ receivers last week, and he’s definitely viable at the absolute minimum. However, Chris Moore might be a slightly better option. He’s been the more heavily targeted player this season, which makes sense given his average depth of target (aDOT). His aDOT is just 6.7 yards downfield, while Dorsett’s is 13.6. Air yards are typically a good thing, but not necessarily when you’re playing with bad quarterbacks. Moore feels a lot safer, which is reflected in his projections.

Quick Hits

The Vikings’ receivers figure to be popular this week vs. the Lions. Justin Jefferson stands out at the top of the pricing spectrum, and he’s had a monster year. He was held in check by the Jets’ elite pass defense last week, but the Lions are going to struggle to slow him down. Adam Thielen also makes sense as a value play at just $4,900. His role has shrunk a bit following the acquisition of T.J. Hockenson, but he remains a threat around the goal line.

Jerry Jeudy was limited to just 20 snaps last week, but he’s been removed from the team’s injury report ahead of their matchup vs. the Chiefs. That gives him massive upside. The team is going to be without Courtland Sutton, so Jeudy should be extremely busy. The Chiefs rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA, so this could be the matchup where the Broncos’ passing attack shows some signs of life.

The game between the Bengals and Browns has the second-highest total this week, but Ja’Marr Chase could fly a bit under the radar. He’s currently projected for just 13% ownership on FanDuel, giving him an outstanding leverage rating in our NFL Models. Chase played on 59 of 72 snaps last week, so he appears poised for a full workload in a great matchup.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud

We have more than enough salary cap space to spend up at tight end, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you need to do it. Of course, paying up for Travis Kelce is rarely a bad idea. He leads the position in median and ceiling projection by a wide margin, and he’s scored at least 20.1 DraftKings points in seven of 12 games. When he performs like that, it’s very tough for anyone else at the position to keep up.

Kelce’s matchup vs. the Broncos isn’t ideal, but they’re not quite as dominant against tight ends as they are against other positions. They rank eighth in DVOA vs. the position, allowing an average of 52.1 receiving yards per game. Kelce is as matchup-proof as it gets, and paying up for his safety is extremely appealing on a slate with tons of value.

Value

The biggest knock against paying up for Kelce in cash games is the presence of Greg Dulcich. Like Jeudy, he’s going to benefit from the absence of Sutton, and he’s already been a big part of the Broncos’ passing attack. He ranks ninth in target market share among tight ends since joining the lineup in Week 6, and he’s coming off a ridiculous 35% target market share last week. Jeudy will likely cut into that a bit vs. the Chiefs, but there’s more than enough volume to satisfy both in an elite matchup.

Quick Hits

Dulcich isn’t the only outstanding value at the position. Jordan Akins and Chig Okonkwo also stand out as strong punt plays at less that $3,000 on DraftKings. Both players should benefit from key absences for their respective teams – Collins and Cooks for Akins, Treylon Burks for Okonkwo – and both players have produced when given opportunities this season.

Mark Andrews came out of the gates super hot, but he has cooled down substantially of late. Tyler Huntley is not as good as Lamar Jackson, but perhaps a change of quarterbacks will wake up the dormant tight end. Huntley loves to lean on Andrews, peppering him with a 28% target share as the Ravens’ QB. Andrews also racked up the second-most air yards at the position last week, so he’s an intriguing buy-low candidate.

Roster Construction

On some weeks, finding enough value at the position to build a strong lineup is difficult. This is not one of those weeks. There are strong cheap plays at virtually every position, so you can go a few different ways with your lineup.

The current optimal lineup for THE BLITZ leans heavily into the Vikings-Lions contest. It features Goff at QB with St. Brown, Jefferson, and Thielen at receiver. It also likes taking the value with Moore in the flex spot, so it could be a week to use four receivers. That leaves enough salary to get to Henry at running back, Dulcich at tight end, and the Steelers on defense.

I typically prefer to go with a three-RB build for cash games, and one possible way to make that happen is going down from Henry to Mixon at running back. That allows you to upgrade Thielen to Swift, who I think has the potential for a monster week. The difference is about two points in terms of projected scoring, so it’s up to you to decide which permutation you like better.

On FanDuel, THE BLITZ likes the idea of spending up for Hurts at quarterback. You can still pair him with Jefferson and St. Brown at receiver, but that means you’re going to have to sacrifice one of the top running backs. That’s completely fine, with Homer, Murray, and Dameon Pierce standing out as the top three options at the position in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

Dulcich is also significantly more expensive on FanDuel, so you’re going to have to go a bit cheaper with Akins or go with essentially a min-priced defense.

As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.

Make sure to also take advantage of all the excellent written content that will be produced prior to kickoff.

Good luck this week!