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Week 14 Fantasy WR Breakdown: Is Mike Evans Finally Ready to Produce?

The Week 14 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 8, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Michael Thomas: $8,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
  • DeAndre Hopkins: $7,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
  • Mike Evans: $7,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
  • D.J. Chark: $6,200 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
  • Robby Anderson: $5,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel

Odds as of Thursday night and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

Michael Thomas: New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers, 44 Over/Under

Thomas is coming off a season-worst six-reception, 48-yard performance, and now he has a tough matchup against the 49ers, who are No. 1 in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).

The 49ers have held opposing wide receivers to the third-fewest DraftKings points per game with 27.0. They haven’t allowed a 100-yard receiving performance since Week 2, when Tyler Boyd and John Ross racked up a lot of late-game garbage yardage in a 41-17 loss.

The 49ers don’t use shadow coverage, and Thomas lines up across the formation, so he will face all three of cornerbacks Richard Sherman, K’Waun Williams and Ahkello Witherspoon throughout the game, with Witherspoon being the guy likely to defend him most, based on where they tend to play.

While it might seem like a lucky break that Thomas will see Witherspoon more than Sherman, the fact is that Witherspoon is having a great season. He missed Weeks 4-10 because of injury, but Witherspoon has held receivers to a 32% catch rate this year. In his two games since returning to the starting lineup in Week 12, he has allowed just 12 yards on two receptions and six targets.

And last year, he was also stingy with a 54.4% catch rate.

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13).

For his career, Sherman has an impressive 48.9% catch rate allowed, and this year he has a 52.3% mark, so it’s not as if I’m suggesting that Sherman is done or that Witherspoon is clearly better than him.

I’m saying that even if Thomas avoids Sherman for most of the game, his matchup with Witherspoon is no gimme.

But matchup aside, there are several reasons to like Thomas.

At $8,300, Thomas is the cheapest he’s been in a month, and he’s likely to have a lower ownership rate in guaranteed prize pools than the 18.1% mark he’s had this year on the main slate (per our FantasyLabs Ownership Dashboard).

Even with his subpar performance last week, he’s still No. 1 in the league with 132 targets, 110 receptions and 1,290 yards receiving. He’s the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 24.6 DraftKings points per game, and he has been a strong source of value with his +6.08 Plus/Minus value.

He leads all receivers with an 82.7% catch rate on contested targets (per Player Profiler).

Wide receiver production can be volatile, but thanks to steady target volume, Thomas has been no worse than a fantasy WR2 every week except for one (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

In five of six full games with quarterback Drew Brees, Thomas has double-digit targets and 100 yards receiving.

On top of that, the Saints are at home, the Coors Field of fantasy football. With Brees, the Saints have a 65-46-2 record to the over at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, good for an A-graded 14.8% return on investment (including postseason, per Bet Labs).



Thomas gets so much volume regardless of circumstances that it really doesn’t matter where he plays, but throughout his career, he has been his best at the Superdome (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Home (33 games): 20.8 DraftKings points, +4.40 Plus/Minus
  • Away (29 games): 18.8 DraftKings points, +2.30 Plus/Minus

Even with his matchup, Thomas is still an attractive option — at least for guaranteed prize pools — because of his volume and splits. He leads all receivers with his median and ceiling projections in our Models.

Thomas has a position-high +3.16 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Raybon Model.

Thomas is also the consensus No. 1 wide receiver in our Week 14 fantasy football rankings.

DeAndre Hopkins: Houston Texans (-9) vs. Denver Broncos, 42 O/U

The matchup for Hopkins is not good. In Week 9 last year, he had a big 10-105-1 performance on 12 targets against the Broncos, but that was with cornerback Chris Harris Jr. playing primarily in the slot.

Now a perimeter shadow defender, Harris will likely tail Hopkins for most of his snaps. Despite allowing a 65.9% catch rate this season, Harris has held receivers to just 36.3 yards and 0.17 touchdowns per game in his coverage.

The Broncos have held opposing wide receivers to the fifth-fewest DraftKings points per game with 29.4, and they are No. 8 in coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus).

But even with the matchup, Hopkins is still in play for GPPs. He’s No. 3 in the league with 10 targets per game and No. 4 with 18.9 DraftKings points per game, and he hasn’t been cheaper than $7,400 since Week 12 of the 2017 season.

nfl week 5 dfs picks-draftkings and fanduel values-deandre hopkins

John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: DeAndre Hopkins

Field-stretching wide receiver Will Fuller (hamstring) is dealing with a lingering injury, but he’s fully expected to play in Week 14, and Hopkins’ splits with him are intriguing.

With Fuller back, it would be reasonable to worry about Hopkins’ usage: He’s likely to see fewer targets. But I’m not worried about Hopkins’ volume, because Fuller has the offense-lifting peak-DeSean Jackson ability to create extra fantasy points for his teammates because of the attention he demands.

In quarterback Deshaun Watson’s 35 starts, Hopkins has been almost as productive with Fuller as without him despite seeing fewer targets.

  • Hopkins with Fuller at 0-49% snap rate (17 games): 21.0 DraftKings points, 11.0 targets, 7.9 receptions, 91.7 yards, 0.47 touchdowns, 2.1% snap rate for Fuller
  • Hopkins with Fuller at 50-100% snap rate (18 games): 20.5 DraftKings points, 9.2 targets, 6.1 receptions, 83.6 yards, 0.83 touchdowns, 75.8% snap rate for Fuller

No wide receiver in the league has more DraftKings points per game over the past three years than Hopkins does with 20.9.

If Hopkins has a problem in this game, it’s much likelier to be Harris than Fuller, and Hopkins has shown over the years that he’s capable of producing in a tough spot.

For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack Hopkins with Watson and maybe Fuller and/or Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton.

Hopkins is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high seven Pro Trends.

Mike Evans: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts, 47 O/U

Evans is like death. He’s going to get his at some point. Every game he disappoints just brings us one game closer to the week he goes off.

Over the past month, Evans has just 8.3 FanDuel points per game with a horrid -4.11 Plus/Minus and 0.0% Consistency Rating. He’s the definition of a boom/bust receiver.

This season, he has been a fantasy WR1 in five weeks and no better than a WR3 in seven weeks. In one game, he had zero receptions on just three targets.

But over his past four games, he still hasn’t been awful. His yardage total extrapolated over a 16-game season would be 1,016 yards. Think about that: Even when Evans has a massively disappointing stretch, he still plays like a 1,000-yard receiver.

The big problem with Evans’ recent performance has been his touchdown drought: He hasn’t scored since Week 9.

But touchdowns can come in waves — especially with Evans — and with his usage and yardage, his scoring luck is likely to change eventually.

For the season, Evans is easily No. 1 with 166.5 air yards and yards after the catch per game (per AirYards.com). He’s also No. 1 with 1.2 end-zone targets per game. With that kind of usage, it’s no surprise that — even with his inconsistency — he’s the No. 3 fantasy receiver with 15.6 FanDuel points per game.

And as volatile as Evans is on a weekly basis, his year-over-year production has been incredibly consistent.

  • 2014 (15 games): 1,051 yards
  • 2015 (15 games): 1,206 yards
  • 2016 (16 games): 1,321 yards
  • 2017 (15 games): 1,001 yards
  • 2018 (16 games): 1,524 yards
  • 2019 (12 games): 1,096 yards

Evans and Randy Moss are the only players in NFL history to open their careers with six consecutive 1,000-yard receiving campaigns. Evans is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory.

The matchup for Evans isn’t a big factor. He could see shadow coverage from rookie cornerback Rock Ya-Sin, who has potential but right now is just an average defender. The Colts have allowed a middle-of-the-road 29.0 FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.

For Evans, what matters is not the matchup. What matters is whether his time has simply come. We’re projecting Evans to have an ownership rate no higher than 20%, and for a guy who has gone off in five of 12 games this year, that seems too low, especially when he’s priced as just the No. 8 receiver on FanDuel.

Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and over the past year, Evans has had a personal-high 0.50 correlation in production with quarterback Jameis Winston. If Evans has a big game, Winston will probably have one as well. They make for a compelling stack.

Evans is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high eight Pro Trends and elite 94% Bargain Rating.

D.J. Chark: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 43 O/U

This is an unfavorable matchup for Chark. The Chargers have held opposing wide receivers to the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game with 22.3.

No. 1 cornerback Casey Hayward doesn’t always shadow, but he usually does so with high-end receivers. He and Chark tend to line up on the same side of the field anyway, so they will see a lot of each other. Hayward gave up a touchdown last week, but he’s still one of the league’s best shadow corners. Since joining the Chargers in 2016, Hayward has held opposing receivers to a 52.7% catch rate.

And when Chark slides into the slot, he will face All-Pro cornerback Desmond King II, who has allowed more than 50 yards in his coverage in just one game this year.

Wherever he lines up, there will likely be no escape for Chark. On almost every snap, he is likely to match up with a top-tier defender.

But I’m not sure how much the matchup actually matters for Chark, who is a very boom/bust receiver.

In six games, Chark has been no worse than a high-end WR2. In the remaining six games, he’s been no better than a WR3.

For Chark, what really matters is whether he scores. He’s a touchdown-or-nothing player (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

When Chark scores a touchdown, he goes off. When he’s scoreless, he’s basically worthless.

We’re projecting Chark to be rostered in tournaments at less than 20%, but even with a tough matchup, you have to figure his odds of scoring a touchdown or higher than that, right? He’s scored in 50% of his games this year.

Chark is the No. 9 fantasy receiver with 14.1 FanDuel points per game, and he’s similar in athleticism and playing style to most of the receivers who have gone off against the Chargers.

  • T.Y. Hilton (Week 1): 24.7 FanDuel points, 8-87-2 receiving on nine targets
  • Kenny Golladay (Week 2): 21.7 FanDuel points, 8-117-1 receiving on 10 targets
  • DeVante Parker (Week 4): 15.0 FanDuel points, 4-70-1 receiving on four targets
  • Courtland Sutton (Week 5): 17.2 FanDuel points, 4-92-1 receiving on seven targets
  • Corey Davis (Week 7): 17.0 FanDuel points, 6-80-1 receiving on seven targets
  • Courtland Sutton (Week 13): 21.4 FanDuel points, 4-74-1 receiving on five targets

Given his near-elite 881-8 receiving line, Chark has the potential to put up fantasy points on anyone.

Chark has a position-high +3.64 Projected Plus/Minus and robust 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Raybon Model.

Robby Anderson: New York Jets (-5.5) vs. Miami Dolphins, 45 O/U

What Anderson has going for him is the matchup: The Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA. Anderson had an underwhelming 2-33-0 performance against them in Week 9, but the Dolphins are utterly exploitable right now.

They produce Millionaire Maker wide receivers the way a mint prints sheets of $100 bills.

This year, the Dolphins have allowed five — FIVE!!! — different wide receivers to score multiple touchdowns in a game.

They are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA specifically against No. 1 wide receivers. Anderson has a massive opportunity to go off.

It’s hard to describe just how disfigured the Dolphins secondary is.

The Dolphins are starting three third-stringers at corner: Webster is a seventh-round rookie cut by the Patriots right before the season and signed off waivers. Needham is an undrafted rookie who didn’t see any playing time till Week 6. Wiltz is an undrafted third-year practice squader finally getting a shot.

At safety, the Dolphins are using a converted corner who had never played the position till Week 6 and a third-year washout who wasn’t on the team till Week 12.

These guys give up more points than the Hufflepuff quidditch team.

Anderson is priced as the No. 32 wide receiver on DraftKings, and he’s likely to have a sub-5% ownership rate in tournaments. Given the matchup, he looks like a screaming value.

He’s the perfect GPP receiver. He’s incredibly volatile.

He’s either a high-end WR2 at worst or absolutely dust.

A big-play receiver, Anderson is very much a touchdown-dependent producer. In his 21 games with quarterback Sam Darnold, Anderson has had dramatic scoring split.

  • Touchdown (eight games): 20.7 DraftKings points, 6.6 targets, 4.3 receptions, 86.6 yards, 1.1 touchdowns
  • No Touchdown (13 games): 6.3 DraftKings points, 6.4 targets, 2.9 receptions, 32.9 yards, zero touchdowns

As you can see, Anderson’s touchdown production is not at all correlated with or determined by his target volume. Whether he scores his largely determined by whether he’s able to convert more of his long targets into receptions and thus yards and thus touchdowns.

And the Dolphins are the type of team that gives up long receptions, yards and touchdowns.

Anderson has scored in 38.1% of his games with Darnold. Given his low salary, projected ownership and matchup, it seems as if the market is greatly undervaluing Anderson’s upside this week.

Anderson is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings.

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs ($8,100 DK, $8,300 FD): The Patriots are No. 1 in PFF coverage grade, and in the AFC Championship game last year they held Hill to just 42 yards on one reception. But in his three full games this year with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Hill has averaged 23.7 DraftKings points, and in Week 6 last year, Hill punished the Patriots with a 7-142-3 receiving onslaught.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($8,000 DK, $8,400 FD): Since returning from injury in Week 9, Adams has averaged 10.8 targets per game, and for the year, he’s No. 4 with 134.1 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game.

Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings ($7,600 DK, $8,000 FD): Diggs had 2-10-1 receiving on six targets against the Lions last year, and he’s slated for a tough shadow matchup with cornerback Darius Slay. But wide receiver Adam Thielen (hamstring) is uncertain, and Diggs could see some extra targets if Thielen is out. The Vikings have a slate-high 28.25-point implied Vegas total, and the Lions have allowed an NFL-high 487.2 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game to opposing teams

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,300 DK, $7,900 FD): The second-year slot superstar is the No. 2 fantasy wide receiver with 17.2 FanDuel points per game, and he’s No. 10 with 129.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game. Despite trailing Mike Evans in targets (116 vs. 104), Godwin leads the team with his 74-1,121-9 receiving line. He trails only Evans at the position with his seven Pro Trends on FanDuel.

Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (12).

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($7,100 DK, $7,600 FD): In his two games against the Chiefs last year, Edelman averaged 16.4 DraftKings points per game. In his seven games this year without Josh Gordon playing a majority of the snaps, Edelman has averaged 11.7 targets, 7.6 receptions, 82.7 receiving yards and an elite 145.9 air yards and yards after the catch per game.

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers ($7,000 DK, $7,100 FD): The second-year 22-year-old playmaker is starting to come on with 41-555-3 receiving on 66 targets in the six games since the Week 7 bye. With his sophomore-season production, Moore is comparable to the younger versions of DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans and Amari Cooper as an emerging asset. The Falcons are No. 28 in PFF coverage grade.

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($6,900 DK, $7,200 FD): Over the past month without wide receiver Preston Williams (knee, IR), Parker has averaged 10.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, 113.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. The Jets have a funnel defense that ranks No. 2 against the run but No. 21 against the pass in DVOA, and cornerbacks Arthur Maulet (calf) and Brian Poole (concussion) are uncertain to play.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($6,700 DK, $7,400 FD): For the year, Golladay ranks No. 2 with 1.1 end-zone targets and No. 5 with 133.9 air yards and yards after the catch per game. In his 14 career games with a touchdown, he’s averaged 22.4 DraftKings points. He’s slated for a matchup with cornerback Xavier Rhodes, who has allowing an 86.9% catch rate this year and just last week gave up 6-120-1 receiving on six targets.

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons ($6,700 DK, $6,900 FD): In his three divisional matchups against the Panthers, Ridley has gone off with 22.0 DraftKings points, five receptions, 99 yards and a touchdown per game. An ideal tournament receiver, Ridley has a touchdown in 46.4% of his games and has averaged 22.1 DraftKings points when scoring.

Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns ($6,500 DK, $7,200 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Landry has averaged 20.2 DraftKings points on 10.7 targets per game. The Bengals are No. 27 in PFF coverage grade.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos ($6,400 DK, $7,300 FD): Since the Emmanuel Sanders trade, Sutton has either 100 yards or a touchdown in three of five games, and the Texans are No. 26 in PFF coverage grade.

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns ($6,300 DK, $6,800 FD): Beckham has just two fantasy WR1 performances this year, but the Bengals are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA and specifically No. 32 against No. 1 wide receivers. Without No. 1 corner Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR), the Bengals have used Willie Jackson in shadow coverage, and last week he yielded 10-107-0 receiving on 11 targets.

James Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD): No. 1 wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) is likely to be out, and Washington has averaged 104.5 yards and one touchdown per game over the past two weeks in his absence. The Cardinals are No. 32 in PFF coverage grade.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,900 DK, $6,300 FD): Boyd had 5-59-1 receiving on 10 targets last week in quarterback Andy Dalton’s return, and he’s No. 7 in the league with 9.4 targets per game. He has an exploitable matchup against cornerback T.J. Carrie, who has allowed a 72.5% catch rate this year.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($5,500 DK, $6,600 FD): In his full 18 games with quarterback Deshaun Watson, Fuller has averaged 17.3 DraftKings points, and he has an exploitable matchup against cornerback Isaac Yiadom, who just last week yielded 4-109-0 receiving on six targets.

Zach Pascal, Indianapolis Colts ($5,500 DK, $6,100 FD): Wide receivers T.Y. Hilton (calf) and Chester Rogers (knee, IR) and tight end Eric Ebron (ankle, IR) are out, so Pascal could see extra volume. In his six Hilton-less games since last year, Pascal has averaged 7.1 targets, and last week he had 7-109-1 receiving on 10 targets. The Bucs have allowed a league-high 48.8 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers.

Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions ($5,400 DK, $6,400 FD): In Week 7, Jones went off on the Vikings with a 10-93-4 masterpiece on 13 targets. Ever hear of the people who get struck by lightning twice?

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets ($5,300 DK, $6,000 FD): Crowder has just 26 scoreless yards over the past two weeks, but in his nine games with quarterback Sam Darnold, he has averaged 13.2 DraftKings points on eight targets per game. Against the Dolphins in 9, Crowder had an 8-83-1 receiving line on nine targets.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans ($5,300 DK, $5,400 FD): Brown leads the Titans with 31 targets, 20 receptions, 353 yards, 531 air yards and yards after the catch and two touchdowns receiving in quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s six starts. The Raiders are No. 28 in pass defense DVOA, and Brown has a position-high floor projection on DraftKings.

Tyrell Williams, Oakland Raiders ($5,000 DK, $5,700 FD): Williams has just 27 scoreless yards over the past two games, but he could see more usage this week with slot receiver Hunter Renfrow (ribs) on the sideline. The Titans have a funnel defense that ranks No. 4 against the run but No. 24 against the pass. Cornerback Malcolm Brown (Wrist, IR) is out and cornerbacks Adoree’ Jackson (knee) and LeShaun Sims (ankle) are injured and yet to practice this week.

Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers ($4,800 DK, $5,800 FD): The third-year Percy Harvin clone is now clearly playing behind teammate D.J. Moore, but in Samuel’s five games this year with a touchdown he’s averaged 17.3 DraftKings points. The Falcons are No. 27 in pass defense DVOA.

Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,600 DK, $5,600 FD): Buyer beware, but Watkins had a 4-114-0 receiving performance on eight targets against the Patriots last year in the AFC Championship.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,500 DK, $5,900 FD): Williams has averaged a strong 89.8 receiving yards over the past four games, but his price has stayed static. After scoring 11 touchdowns last year, Williams has zero this year despite pacing for his first 1,000-yard season and increasing his yardage per target from 10.1 to 11.3. Williams leads the Chargers with eight end-zone targets. At some point, his opportunities and yards will translate into touchdowns.

John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,400 DK, $5,500 FD): Ross (shoulder) is slated to return from injury this week. His role and playing time are uncertain, but in his four games played, Ross is No. 6 with 133 air yards and yards after the catch and No. 7 with 14.2 FanDuel points per game.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Mike Evans
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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The Week 14 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 8, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Michael Thomas: $8,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
  • DeAndre Hopkins: $7,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
  • Mike Evans: $7,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
  • D.J. Chark: $6,200 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
  • Robby Anderson: $5,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel

Odds as of Thursday night and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

Michael Thomas: New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers, 44 Over/Under

Thomas is coming off a season-worst six-reception, 48-yard performance, and now he has a tough matchup against the 49ers, who are No. 1 in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).

The 49ers have held opposing wide receivers to the third-fewest DraftKings points per game with 27.0. They haven’t allowed a 100-yard receiving performance since Week 2, when Tyler Boyd and John Ross racked up a lot of late-game garbage yardage in a 41-17 loss.

The 49ers don’t use shadow coverage, and Thomas lines up across the formation, so he will face all three of cornerbacks Richard Sherman, K’Waun Williams and Ahkello Witherspoon throughout the game, with Witherspoon being the guy likely to defend him most, based on where they tend to play.

While it might seem like a lucky break that Thomas will see Witherspoon more than Sherman, the fact is that Witherspoon is having a great season. He missed Weeks 4-10 because of injury, but Witherspoon has held receivers to a 32% catch rate this year. In his two games since returning to the starting lineup in Week 12, he has allowed just 12 yards on two receptions and six targets.

And last year, he was also stingy with a 54.4% catch rate.

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13).

For his career, Sherman has an impressive 48.9% catch rate allowed, and this year he has a 52.3% mark, so it’s not as if I’m suggesting that Sherman is done or that Witherspoon is clearly better than him.

I’m saying that even if Thomas avoids Sherman for most of the game, his matchup with Witherspoon is no gimme.

But matchup aside, there are several reasons to like Thomas.

At $8,300, Thomas is the cheapest he’s been in a month, and he’s likely to have a lower ownership rate in guaranteed prize pools than the 18.1% mark he’s had this year on the main slate (per our FantasyLabs Ownership Dashboard).

Even with his subpar performance last week, he’s still No. 1 in the league with 132 targets, 110 receptions and 1,290 yards receiving. He’s the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 24.6 DraftKings points per game, and he has been a strong source of value with his +6.08 Plus/Minus value.

He leads all receivers with an 82.7% catch rate on contested targets (per Player Profiler).

Wide receiver production can be volatile, but thanks to steady target volume, Thomas has been no worse than a fantasy WR2 every week except for one (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

In five of six full games with quarterback Drew Brees, Thomas has double-digit targets and 100 yards receiving.

On top of that, the Saints are at home, the Coors Field of fantasy football. With Brees, the Saints have a 65-46-2 record to the over at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, good for an A-graded 14.8% return on investment (including postseason, per Bet Labs).



Thomas gets so much volume regardless of circumstances that it really doesn’t matter where he plays, but throughout his career, he has been his best at the Superdome (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Home (33 games): 20.8 DraftKings points, +4.40 Plus/Minus
  • Away (29 games): 18.8 DraftKings points, +2.30 Plus/Minus

Even with his matchup, Thomas is still an attractive option — at least for guaranteed prize pools — because of his volume and splits. He leads all receivers with his median and ceiling projections in our Models.

Thomas has a position-high +3.16 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Raybon Model.

Thomas is also the consensus No. 1 wide receiver in our Week 14 fantasy football rankings.

DeAndre Hopkins: Houston Texans (-9) vs. Denver Broncos, 42 O/U

The matchup for Hopkins is not good. In Week 9 last year, he had a big 10-105-1 performance on 12 targets against the Broncos, but that was with cornerback Chris Harris Jr. playing primarily in the slot.

Now a perimeter shadow defender, Harris will likely tail Hopkins for most of his snaps. Despite allowing a 65.9% catch rate this season, Harris has held receivers to just 36.3 yards and 0.17 touchdowns per game in his coverage.

The Broncos have held opposing wide receivers to the fifth-fewest DraftKings points per game with 29.4, and they are No. 8 in coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus).

But even with the matchup, Hopkins is still in play for GPPs. He’s No. 3 in the league with 10 targets per game and No. 4 with 18.9 DraftKings points per game, and he hasn’t been cheaper than $7,400 since Week 12 of the 2017 season.

nfl week 5 dfs picks-draftkings and fanduel values-deandre hopkins

John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: DeAndre Hopkins

Field-stretching wide receiver Will Fuller (hamstring) is dealing with a lingering injury, but he’s fully expected to play in Week 14, and Hopkins’ splits with him are intriguing.

With Fuller back, it would be reasonable to worry about Hopkins’ usage: He’s likely to see fewer targets. But I’m not worried about Hopkins’ volume, because Fuller has the offense-lifting peak-DeSean Jackson ability to create extra fantasy points for his teammates because of the attention he demands.

In quarterback Deshaun Watson’s 35 starts, Hopkins has been almost as productive with Fuller as without him despite seeing fewer targets.

  • Hopkins with Fuller at 0-49% snap rate (17 games): 21.0 DraftKings points, 11.0 targets, 7.9 receptions, 91.7 yards, 0.47 touchdowns, 2.1% snap rate for Fuller
  • Hopkins with Fuller at 50-100% snap rate (18 games): 20.5 DraftKings points, 9.2 targets, 6.1 receptions, 83.6 yards, 0.83 touchdowns, 75.8% snap rate for Fuller

No wide receiver in the league has more DraftKings points per game over the past three years than Hopkins does with 20.9.

If Hopkins has a problem in this game, it’s much likelier to be Harris than Fuller, and Hopkins has shown over the years that he’s capable of producing in a tough spot.

For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack Hopkins with Watson and maybe Fuller and/or Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton.

Hopkins is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high seven Pro Trends.

Mike Evans: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts, 47 O/U

Evans is like death. He’s going to get his at some point. Every game he disappoints just brings us one game closer to the week he goes off.

Over the past month, Evans has just 8.3 FanDuel points per game with a horrid -4.11 Plus/Minus and 0.0% Consistency Rating. He’s the definition of a boom/bust receiver.

This season, he has been a fantasy WR1 in five weeks and no better than a WR3 in seven weeks. In one game, he had zero receptions on just three targets.

But over his past four games, he still hasn’t been awful. His yardage total extrapolated over a 16-game season would be 1,016 yards. Think about that: Even when Evans has a massively disappointing stretch, he still plays like a 1,000-yard receiver.

The big problem with Evans’ recent performance has been his touchdown drought: He hasn’t scored since Week 9.

But touchdowns can come in waves — especially with Evans — and with his usage and yardage, his scoring luck is likely to change eventually.

For the season, Evans is easily No. 1 with 166.5 air yards and yards after the catch per game (per AirYards.com). He’s also No. 1 with 1.2 end-zone targets per game. With that kind of usage, it’s no surprise that — even with his inconsistency — he’s the No. 3 fantasy receiver with 15.6 FanDuel points per game.

And as volatile as Evans is on a weekly basis, his year-over-year production has been incredibly consistent.

  • 2014 (15 games): 1,051 yards
  • 2015 (15 games): 1,206 yards
  • 2016 (16 games): 1,321 yards
  • 2017 (15 games): 1,001 yards
  • 2018 (16 games): 1,524 yards
  • 2019 (12 games): 1,096 yards

Evans and Randy Moss are the only players in NFL history to open their careers with six consecutive 1,000-yard receiving campaigns. Evans is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory.

The matchup for Evans isn’t a big factor. He could see shadow coverage from rookie cornerback Rock Ya-Sin, who has potential but right now is just an average defender. The Colts have allowed a middle-of-the-road 29.0 FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.

For Evans, what matters is not the matchup. What matters is whether his time has simply come. We’re projecting Evans to have an ownership rate no higher than 20%, and for a guy who has gone off in five of 12 games this year, that seems too low, especially when he’s priced as just the No. 8 receiver on FanDuel.

Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and over the past year, Evans has had a personal-high 0.50 correlation in production with quarterback Jameis Winston. If Evans has a big game, Winston will probably have one as well. They make for a compelling stack.

Evans is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high eight Pro Trends and elite 94% Bargain Rating.

D.J. Chark: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 43 O/U

This is an unfavorable matchup for Chark. The Chargers have held opposing wide receivers to the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game with 22.3.

No. 1 cornerback Casey Hayward doesn’t always shadow, but he usually does so with high-end receivers. He and Chark tend to line up on the same side of the field anyway, so they will see a lot of each other. Hayward gave up a touchdown last week, but he’s still one of the league’s best shadow corners. Since joining the Chargers in 2016, Hayward has held opposing receivers to a 52.7% catch rate.

And when Chark slides into the slot, he will face All-Pro cornerback Desmond King II, who has allowed more than 50 yards in his coverage in just one game this year.

Wherever he lines up, there will likely be no escape for Chark. On almost every snap, he is likely to match up with a top-tier defender.

But I’m not sure how much the matchup actually matters for Chark, who is a very boom/bust receiver.

In six games, Chark has been no worse than a high-end WR2. In the remaining six games, he’s been no better than a WR3.

For Chark, what really matters is whether he scores. He’s a touchdown-or-nothing player (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

When Chark scores a touchdown, he goes off. When he’s scoreless, he’s basically worthless.

We’re projecting Chark to be rostered in tournaments at less than 20%, but even with a tough matchup, you have to figure his odds of scoring a touchdown or higher than that, right? He’s scored in 50% of his games this year.

Chark is the No. 9 fantasy receiver with 14.1 FanDuel points per game, and he’s similar in athleticism and playing style to most of the receivers who have gone off against the Chargers.

  • T.Y. Hilton (Week 1): 24.7 FanDuel points, 8-87-2 receiving on nine targets
  • Kenny Golladay (Week 2): 21.7 FanDuel points, 8-117-1 receiving on 10 targets
  • DeVante Parker (Week 4): 15.0 FanDuel points, 4-70-1 receiving on four targets
  • Courtland Sutton (Week 5): 17.2 FanDuel points, 4-92-1 receiving on seven targets
  • Corey Davis (Week 7): 17.0 FanDuel points, 6-80-1 receiving on seven targets
  • Courtland Sutton (Week 13): 21.4 FanDuel points, 4-74-1 receiving on five targets

Given his near-elite 881-8 receiving line, Chark has the potential to put up fantasy points on anyone.

Chark has a position-high +3.64 Projected Plus/Minus and robust 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the Raybon Model.

Robby Anderson: New York Jets (-5.5) vs. Miami Dolphins, 45 O/U

What Anderson has going for him is the matchup: The Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA. Anderson had an underwhelming 2-33-0 performance against them in Week 9, but the Dolphins are utterly exploitable right now.

They produce Millionaire Maker wide receivers the way a mint prints sheets of $100 bills.

This year, the Dolphins have allowed five — FIVE!!! — different wide receivers to score multiple touchdowns in a game.

They are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA specifically against No. 1 wide receivers. Anderson has a massive opportunity to go off.

It’s hard to describe just how disfigured the Dolphins secondary is.

The Dolphins are starting three third-stringers at corner: Webster is a seventh-round rookie cut by the Patriots right before the season and signed off waivers. Needham is an undrafted rookie who didn’t see any playing time till Week 6. Wiltz is an undrafted third-year practice squader finally getting a shot.

At safety, the Dolphins are using a converted corner who had never played the position till Week 6 and a third-year washout who wasn’t on the team till Week 12.

These guys give up more points than the Hufflepuff quidditch team.

Anderson is priced as the No. 32 wide receiver on DraftKings, and he’s likely to have a sub-5% ownership rate in tournaments. Given the matchup, he looks like a screaming value.

He’s the perfect GPP receiver. He’s incredibly volatile.

He’s either a high-end WR2 at worst or absolutely dust.

A big-play receiver, Anderson is very much a touchdown-dependent producer. In his 21 games with quarterback Sam Darnold, Anderson has had dramatic scoring split.

  • Touchdown (eight games): 20.7 DraftKings points, 6.6 targets, 4.3 receptions, 86.6 yards, 1.1 touchdowns
  • No Touchdown (13 games): 6.3 DraftKings points, 6.4 targets, 2.9 receptions, 32.9 yards, zero touchdowns

As you can see, Anderson’s touchdown production is not at all correlated with or determined by his target volume. Whether he scores his largely determined by whether he’s able to convert more of his long targets into receptions and thus yards and thus touchdowns.

And the Dolphins are the type of team that gives up long receptions, yards and touchdowns.

Anderson has scored in 38.1% of his games with Darnold. Given his low salary, projected ownership and matchup, it seems as if the market is greatly undervaluing Anderson’s upside this week.

Anderson is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings.

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs ($8,100 DK, $8,300 FD): The Patriots are No. 1 in PFF coverage grade, and in the AFC Championship game last year they held Hill to just 42 yards on one reception. But in his three full games this year with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Hill has averaged 23.7 DraftKings points, and in Week 6 last year, Hill punished the Patriots with a 7-142-3 receiving onslaught.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($8,000 DK, $8,400 FD): Since returning from injury in Week 9, Adams has averaged 10.8 targets per game, and for the year, he’s No. 4 with 134.1 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game.

Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings ($7,600 DK, $8,000 FD): Diggs had 2-10-1 receiving on six targets against the Lions last year, and he’s slated for a tough shadow matchup with cornerback Darius Slay. But wide receiver Adam Thielen (hamstring) is uncertain, and Diggs could see some extra targets if Thielen is out. The Vikings have a slate-high 28.25-point implied Vegas total, and the Lions have allowed an NFL-high 487.2 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game to opposing teams

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,300 DK, $7,900 FD): The second-year slot superstar is the No. 2 fantasy wide receiver with 17.2 FanDuel points per game, and he’s No. 10 with 129.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game. Despite trailing Mike Evans in targets (116 vs. 104), Godwin leads the team with his 74-1,121-9 receiving line. He trails only Evans at the position with his seven Pro Trends on FanDuel.

Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (12).

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($7,100 DK, $7,600 FD): In his two games against the Chiefs last year, Edelman averaged 16.4 DraftKings points per game. In his seven games this year without Josh Gordon playing a majority of the snaps, Edelman has averaged 11.7 targets, 7.6 receptions, 82.7 receiving yards and an elite 145.9 air yards and yards after the catch per game.

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers ($7,000 DK, $7,100 FD): The second-year 22-year-old playmaker is starting to come on with 41-555-3 receiving on 66 targets in the six games since the Week 7 bye. With his sophomore-season production, Moore is comparable to the younger versions of DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans and Amari Cooper as an emerging asset. The Falcons are No. 28 in PFF coverage grade.

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($6,900 DK, $7,200 FD): Over the past month without wide receiver Preston Williams (knee, IR), Parker has averaged 10.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, 113.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. The Jets have a funnel defense that ranks No. 2 against the run but No. 21 against the pass in DVOA, and cornerbacks Arthur Maulet (calf) and Brian Poole (concussion) are uncertain to play.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($6,700 DK, $7,400 FD): For the year, Golladay ranks No. 2 with 1.1 end-zone targets and No. 5 with 133.9 air yards and yards after the catch per game. In his 14 career games with a touchdown, he’s averaged 22.4 DraftKings points. He’s slated for a matchup with cornerback Xavier Rhodes, who has allowing an 86.9% catch rate this year and just last week gave up 6-120-1 receiving on six targets.

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons ($6,700 DK, $6,900 FD): In his three divisional matchups against the Panthers, Ridley has gone off with 22.0 DraftKings points, five receptions, 99 yards and a touchdown per game. An ideal tournament receiver, Ridley has a touchdown in 46.4% of his games and has averaged 22.1 DraftKings points when scoring.

Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns ($6,500 DK, $7,200 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Landry has averaged 20.2 DraftKings points on 10.7 targets per game. The Bengals are No. 27 in PFF coverage grade.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos ($6,400 DK, $7,300 FD): Since the Emmanuel Sanders trade, Sutton has either 100 yards or a touchdown in three of five games, and the Texans are No. 26 in PFF coverage grade.

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns ($6,300 DK, $6,800 FD): Beckham has just two fantasy WR1 performances this year, but the Bengals are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA and specifically No. 32 against No. 1 wide receivers. Without No. 1 corner Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR), the Bengals have used Willie Jackson in shadow coverage, and last week he yielded 10-107-0 receiving on 11 targets.

James Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD): No. 1 wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) is likely to be out, and Washington has averaged 104.5 yards and one touchdown per game over the past two weeks in his absence. The Cardinals are No. 32 in PFF coverage grade.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,900 DK, $6,300 FD): Boyd had 5-59-1 receiving on 10 targets last week in quarterback Andy Dalton’s return, and he’s No. 7 in the league with 9.4 targets per game. He has an exploitable matchup against cornerback T.J. Carrie, who has allowed a 72.5% catch rate this year.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($5,500 DK, $6,600 FD): In his full 18 games with quarterback Deshaun Watson, Fuller has averaged 17.3 DraftKings points, and he has an exploitable matchup against cornerback Isaac Yiadom, who just last week yielded 4-109-0 receiving on six targets.

Zach Pascal, Indianapolis Colts ($5,500 DK, $6,100 FD): Wide receivers T.Y. Hilton (calf) and Chester Rogers (knee, IR) and tight end Eric Ebron (ankle, IR) are out, so Pascal could see extra volume. In his six Hilton-less games since last year, Pascal has averaged 7.1 targets, and last week he had 7-109-1 receiving on 10 targets. The Bucs have allowed a league-high 48.8 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers.

Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions ($5,400 DK, $6,400 FD): In Week 7, Jones went off on the Vikings with a 10-93-4 masterpiece on 13 targets. Ever hear of the people who get struck by lightning twice?

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets ($5,300 DK, $6,000 FD): Crowder has just 26 scoreless yards over the past two weeks, but in his nine games with quarterback Sam Darnold, he has averaged 13.2 DraftKings points on eight targets per game. Against the Dolphins in 9, Crowder had an 8-83-1 receiving line on nine targets.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans ($5,300 DK, $5,400 FD): Brown leads the Titans with 31 targets, 20 receptions, 353 yards, 531 air yards and yards after the catch and two touchdowns receiving in quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s six starts. The Raiders are No. 28 in pass defense DVOA, and Brown has a position-high floor projection on DraftKings.

Tyrell Williams, Oakland Raiders ($5,000 DK, $5,700 FD): Williams has just 27 scoreless yards over the past two games, but he could see more usage this week with slot receiver Hunter Renfrow (ribs) on the sideline. The Titans have a funnel defense that ranks No. 4 against the run but No. 24 against the pass. Cornerback Malcolm Brown (Wrist, IR) is out and cornerbacks Adoree’ Jackson (knee) and LeShaun Sims (ankle) are injured and yet to practice this week.

Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers ($4,800 DK, $5,800 FD): The third-year Percy Harvin clone is now clearly playing behind teammate D.J. Moore, but in Samuel’s five games this year with a touchdown he’s averaged 17.3 DraftKings points. The Falcons are No. 27 in pass defense DVOA.

Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,600 DK, $5,600 FD): Buyer beware, but Watkins had a 4-114-0 receiving performance on eight targets against the Patriots last year in the AFC Championship.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,500 DK, $5,900 FD): Williams has averaged a strong 89.8 receiving yards over the past four games, but his price has stayed static. After scoring 11 touchdowns last year, Williams has zero this year despite pacing for his first 1,000-yard season and increasing his yardage per target from 10.1 to 11.3. Williams leads the Chargers with eight end-zone targets. At some point, his opportunities and yards will translate into touchdowns.

John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,400 DK, $5,500 FD): Ross (shoulder) is slated to return from injury this week. His role and playing time are uncertain, but in his four games played, Ross is No. 6 with 133 air yards and yards after the catch and No. 7 with 14.2 FanDuel points per game.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Mike Evans
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.