The Week 14 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 8, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Dalvin Cook: $9,500 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
- Mark Ingram: $5,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
- James White: $5,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
- Duke Johnson: $3,900 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Odds as of Wednesday night and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
Dalvin Cook: Minnesota Vikings (-13) vs. Detroit Lions, 43 Over/Under
Cook (shoulder) exited Monday Night Football early with an injury, but he said after the game he expects to suit up this week. Players tend to be optimistic about their ability to play through injuries and manage pain, but as of now, we’ll tentatively take him at his word. But be sure to monitor his health status throughout the week.
If Cook is unable to play, then rookie backup Alexander Mattison will play as the lead back and be a chalky option.
There’s a lot to like about Cook. He’s the No. 2 fantasy back with 20.5 FanDuel points per game, and he’s provided a lot of value with his +5.95 Plus/Minus. Even though he missed a lot of Week 13, Cook has been no worse than a fantasy RB2 in any game this year (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
On a weekly basis, Cook has an extremely high floor. He’s No. 3 with 18.6 expected fantasy points per game and 4.3 fantasy points over expectation (per RotoViz Screener). He’s getting his touches and making them count.
Cook has a touchdown in 10 of 12 games. In his two scoreless starts, he has 167 scrimmage yards per game. He’s a straight baller.
On top of all that, Cook has two big factors in his favor this week.
First, he has a great matchup. The Lions are No. 29 in run defense grade (per Pro Football Focus), and they have allowed the third-most FanDuel points per game to opposing backfields with 26.4.
Against the Lions in Week 7, Cook had a Millionaire Maker-winning 149-yard, two-touchdown performance.
Additionally, he’s on the positive side of his career splits (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- Home (13 games): 17.5 FanDuel points, +5.61 Plus/Minus
- Away (14 games): 15.0 FanDuel points, +2.78 Plus/Minus
- Favorite (19 games): 17.4 FanDuel points, +5.00 Plus/Minus
- Underdog (eight games): 13.5 FanDuel points, +2.10 Plus/Minus
No. 1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs is slated for a tough shadow matchup against cornerback Darius Slay, and the Vikings are heavily favored. If they get out to a big lead, they will have every incentive to rely on the running attack. And they tend to run the ball a lot anyway, ranking No. 3 in the league with a 48.5% rush rate.
And from a betting perspective, I like this spot for the Vikings, who have generally offered a strong return on investment under head coach Mike Zimmer, especially in a couple of key against-the-spread scenarios (per Bet Labs):
- At home: 30-14-1, 32.1% ROI
- As favorites: 34-18-1, 26.9% ROI
These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings are.
Zimmer is a focused, no-nonsense, risk-adverse, process-oriented, defense-directed “manager” (for lack of a better word), and the Vikings are a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes. They don’t waste the sonorous advantage they have at home, and they don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents.
As home favorites, Zimmer’s Vikings are 24-10-1 ATS (36.4% ROI).
If the Vikings are to have success against the Lions — and I bet they will — Cook seems likely to have a big day. As long as he is actually healthy and gets in at least one full practice this week, Cook is a top-tier option for cash games and tournaments: The Vikings have a slate-high 28.25-point implied Vegas total.
Cook is the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with 16 Pro Trends and a 99% Bargain Rating.
Mark Ingram: Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills, 43.5 O/U
It’s easy to be lukewarm on Ingram. Since the Week 8 bye, he has just 13.4 carries and two targets per game. He’s had fewer than 75 yards rushing in eight of 12 games this year, and he offers relatively little as a receiver.
But that perspective probable sells him short. He’s had more than 12 touches in every game this year but one, and he’s the lead back on a team that is No. 1 in the league with 33.8 points per game and a militant 55.1% run rate.
He’s No. 3 with 13 carries inside the opponent five-yard line, and he has either a touchdown or 100 yards in eight of 12 games. Ingram is one of just six backs who already has 1,000 yards from scrimmage and double-digit touchdowns. He’s the No. 11 fantasy back with 17.1 DraftKings points per game. It’s hard to complain about a guy like that.
I love the situation for Ingram. This is a tough passing matchup for quarterback Lamar Jackson. No. 1 wide receiver Marquise Goodwin is likely to be shadowed by emerging shutdown cornerback Tre’Davious White. Since entering the league in 2017, White has allowed a catch rate of just 52.7%.
The Bills are No. 3 in PFF coverage grade.
So the Ravens should be incentivized to run the ball, and it just so happens that the Bills are exploitable on the ground with a funnel defense that ranks No. 5 against the pass but No. 22 against the run in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
Given that the Ravens are No. 1 in the league with a 55% rush success rate (per Sharp Football Stats), they could have a big day on the ground. From a betting perspective, I like the Ravens in this game and expect them to have a run-heavy game script for much of the contest, which should benefit Ingram.
The 11 backs to have double-digit carries against the Bills have averaged 15.8 DraftKings points per game with a +2.79 Plus/Minus and 81.8% Consistency Rating.
Ingram trails only Dalvin Cook with his seven Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88 and Freedman Models.
James White: New England Patriots (-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 49 O/U
This is the first time this year White has been at the top of any of our Pro Models for the main slate.
My first instinct is that it feels like we’re chasing points: White is the most expensive he’s been this year at $5,500 on DraftKings, and last week he hit season-high marks across the board with a 78% snap rate, 14 carries, 11 targets, eight receptions, 177 scrimmage yards, two touchdowns and a position-best 37.7 DraftKings points.
But upon closer reflection, I like this spot for White.
He’s not significantly more expensive than he’s been all year. And $5,500 is still fairly cheap.
More importantly, he’s got a great matchup. The Chiefs are No. 32 in PFF run defense grade and have allowed a league-high 763 receiving yards to the position. No team has yielded more DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields than the Chiefs have with 32.6.
Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James White
If he gets carries and especially targets, White could have another big game.
And why shouldn’t he get opportunities (carries plus targets)?
The Pats offense is in disarray right now, and White is one of the team’s most reliable players. Given how ineffectual starter Sony Michel has been as a runner (3.5 yards per carry), the Patriots could look to give White more playing time.
And because the Pats aren’t as dynamic on offense as they used to be, they could fall behind against the Chiefs rather quickly, just as they did last week with the Texans. And if they have a large deficit, they are likely to lean more on the passing game and use White as their primary back.
There are multiple avenues through which White could have a big game.
White isn’t going to approach the 12 touchdowns he had last year, but he’s still pacing for close to a 1,000-yard season, and in nine of 11 weeks, he’s been no worse than a fantasy RB2.
With his 81.8% Consistency Rating this year, he’s had a reasonable floor.
Since 2016, when White became a regular contributor in the Pats offense, he’s averaged 13.7 DraftKings points, 10.5 opportunities, 8.7 touches, 57.1 scrimmage yards and 0.52 touchdowns per game in quarterback Tom Brady’s 62 starts (including playoffs). In 10 of those games — 16.1% of the time — White has had 20-plus DraftKings points.
Over the past two years, White has had a 7.5% ownership rate in main slate tournaments (per our FantasyLabs Ownership Dashboard). Given the discrepancy between the frequency with which he’s had big games and the rate at which he’s been rostered, White provides some GPP value this week, especially with his matchup.
The backs most similar to White in talent and role to face the Chiefs this year are Duke Johnson Jr. and Austin Ekeler. In their two games, they averaged 18.8 DraftKings points with a +9.20 Plus/Minus.
White is the No. 1 back in the Levitan, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, and for good measure, he’s also the top option in the SportsGeek Model for FanDuel.
Duke Johnson: Houston Texans (-9.5) vs. Denver Broncos, 42 O/U
I’m not enamored with Johnson. He has a really low floor and is averaging just 10.2 DraftKings points per game. But he’s been a fantasy RB2 in five of 12 games, and he’s just $3,900.
Duke is averaging only 6.2 carries per game, and that’s not a large number, but it’s more than the 4.7 he averaged in his first four years with the Browns, and his 5.2 yards per carry is the best mark of his career. And Johnson is supplementing his rushing work with 3.4 targets per game.
In total, Johnson is pacing for 905.3 yards and 5.8 touchdowns, which would give him the second-best campaign of his career.
Just last week, Johnson hit season-high marks with a 68% snap rate, nine carries, six targets, five receptions, 90 yards, a touchdown and 20 DraftKings points. Maybe it was an outlier performance, but perhaps the Texans have decided to use Johnson more in order to reduce starter Carlos Hyde’s workload and keep him fresh for the playoffs.
If the Texans give Johnson similar usage this week, he could have another big game.
Austin Ekeler is the back most comparable to Johnson to play the Broncos this year. In both of his games against them, he served as the supplementary back to Melvin Gordon, so it’s not as if he was getting a starter’s workload. Against the Broncos, Ekeler averaged 20 DraftKings points with a +6.15 Plus/Minus, 80 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 16.5 opportunities per game.
The last time Johnson was at the top of one our Models — in Week 6 against the Chiefs — he had a serviceable 13.4 DraftKings points at $4,100.
Johnson is the No. 1 back in the Koerner Model for DraftKings, where he has a respectable five Pro Trends and strong 93% Bargain Rating.
Upside Running Backs for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers ($10,300 DK, $11,000 FD): McCaffrey is the No. 1 back in our Week 14 fantasy football rankings and easily the No. 1 fantasy back this year with 31.3 DraftKings and 26.4 FanDuel points per game. McCaffrey leads all running backs in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans ($8,200 DK, $9,100 FD): Since becoming a locked-in lead back in Week 14 last year, Henry has averaged 121.6 yards and 1.25 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. Since last year, he’s averaged 19.3 DraftKings points with a +6.93 Plus/Minus in 13 games as a favorite.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns ($8,000 DK, $7,900 FD): Even with the return of Kareem Hunt, Chubb has averaged 114 yards on 21 carries and 2.5 targets per game over the past four weeks.
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,800 DK, $7,500 FD): Uncle Lenny is No. 3 in the league with 1,433 scrimmage yards, and he’s on the positive side of his reverse splits, averaging 20.8 DraftKings points with a +5.77 Plus/Minus and 73.7% Consistency Rating in his 19 career games as an underdog.
Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets ($7,200 DK, $7,300 FD): In Week 9, Bell had 121 scrimmage yards on 17 carries and nine targets against the Dolphins, who are No. 29 in rush defense DVOA and No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against running backs. Only Christian McCaffrey has a higher ceiling than Bell on FanDuel, where he leads all backs with a +3.48 Projected Plus/Minus.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Le’Veon Bell
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints ($7,000 DK, $7,600 FD): Kamara is the cheapest he’s been all year on DraftKings, where he has a position-high +2.38 Projected Plus/Minus, and the 49ers have a funnel defense that ranks No. 1 against the pass but No. 14 against the run in DVOA.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers ($6,700 DK, $7,800 FD): Jones has averaged just 34.5 yards per game since the Weke 11 bye, but in his seven games with a touchdown this year, he’s averaged 29.1 DraftKings points.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns ($6,600 DK, $6,400 FD): In his four games with the Browns, Hunt has averaged 60.8 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 6.3 carries, 6.3 targets and five receptions per game, and now he has a good matchup against the Bengals, who are No. 27 in rush defense DVOA and No. 28 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.
Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders ($6,500 DK, $7,700 FD): The first back selected in the 2019 draft, Jacobs has lived up to the hype with 100.6 yards and 0.58 touchdowns from scrimmage per game on a run-committed team with a 45.5% rush rate.
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,400 DK, $7,300 FD): MG3 has averaged 19 carries and 3.3 targets per game since the beginning of November, and the Jags are No. 31 in rush defense DVOA and No. 25 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,300 DK, $7,000 FD): Danny Woodhead 2.0 is No. 1 at the position with 62.8 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com), and even in his eight games with Melvin Gordon, Ekeler has averaged 76 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Benny Snell, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,100 DK, $6,100 FD): Over the past two weeks, Snell has averaged 85 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game as the fill-in for starter James Conner (shoulder), who is still uncertain for Week 14. Snell’s 97% Bargain Rating is a top-five mark on DraftKings.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,800 DK, $6,700 FD): Despite massively underwhelming this year, Mixon has managed 100.8 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game since the Week 9 bye, and he has a position-high 94% Leverage Score on DraftKings.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills ($5,700 DK, $6,700 FD): Since assuming the role of lead back six weeks, Singletary has averaged 88.3 scrimmage yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game, and the Ravens have a funnel defense that ranks No. 3 against the pass but No. 25 against the run in DVOA.
Sony Michel, New England Patriots ($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD): In his two games against the Chiefs last year, Michel averaged 26.0 DraftKings points with a +13.52 Plus/Minus on the strength of a total 53-219-4 rushing performance.
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD): In his Week 13 return from injury, Freeman had a 67% snap rate and 22 opportunities as the clear lead back, and now he faces a Panthers defense allowing a league-high 27.8 FanDuel points per game to opposing backfields.
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos ($5,300 DK, $6,400 FD): Lindsay has averaged 15.3 carries and 2.7 targets per game since the Week 10 bye and is on the positive side of his reverse splits, averaging 16.9 DraftKings points with a +6.37 Plus/Minus in his eight career games as a road underdog.
Derrius Guice, Washington Redskins ($4,900 DK, $6,300 FD): Guice is coming off the first 100-yard, multi-touchdown game of his career, he has averaged nine carries and 2.3 targets per game since returning from injury in Week 11 and the Packers have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing backfields with 24.8.
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers ($4,800 DK, $5,600 FD): Over the past month, Williams has averaged 11.3 carries and 4.3 targets per game, and he could see some extended usage in the second half as a big favorite at home, where the Packers have an A-graded 52-29-3 ATS record with quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Carlos Hyde, Houston Texans ($4,500 DK, $6,000 FD): The between-the-tackles grinder is averaging 15.3 carries per game and might see extra work with a run-heavy game script as a big home favorite.
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings ($4,500 DK, $5,100 FD): Starter Dalvin Cook (shoulder) is expected to play in Week 14, but if he doesn’t, Mattison will be a chalk lock. The bully of a rookie has averaged 4.8 yards per carry and an 80% catch rate behind Cook, and as his in-game replacement last week, the Founding Father put up 73 yards and nine opportunities.
Patrick Laird, Miami Dolphins ($4,100 DK, $5,500 FD): Backup-turned-starter Kalen Ballage (leg, IR) is out, so the undrafted third-string first-year Laird is slated to play as the lead back. A legitimate talent with back-to-back 1,200-yard seasons in college and serious receiving prowess with his 85.7% catch rate, Laird could build upon season-high 60% snap rate and 15 opportunities he saw last week.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Mark Ingram
Photo credit: Kirby Lee — USA Today Sports
