For the third straight week, 10 NFL games make up the Sunday afternoon main slate on DraftKings. Last week, it was due to the holiday schedule, but this week, there are six teams getting the week off to finish up the bye weeks for this regular season. Just like each of the last two weeks, there are seven games kicking off at 1:00 p.m. ET, followed by three in the late window.
The highest over/under on Sunday’s slate is from the Bills visiting the Rams in the late wave, but the Eagles have the highest implied team total as they look to keep their winning streak going with a great home matchup against the Panthers. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 14. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Sam Darnold ($6,100) Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (45.5 total)
As he has been multiple times this season, Darnold is the top value coming into this week. His Vikings host the Falcons and their former QB Kirk Cousins in Minnesota after Cousins looked pretty bad last week in a loss to the Chargers. Darnold has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks this week in the projections from Koerner, Raybon, and THE BLITZ. The options behind him vary from projection to projection, but he’s in the top spot in all three.
Darnold threw two touchdowns last week and led the Vikings to a late comeback win over Arizona. He finished with 19.6 DraftKings points, exceeding salary-based expectations for the third straight game on DraftKings since his disappointing dud in Jacksonville. He has over 17 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games and nine of his last 11 dating back to Week 2.
On the season, Darnold has averaged 18.6 DraftKings points on 246 passing yards per game. He showed his high ceiling with a four-touchdown game against the Texans in Week 3 and has consistently thrown for multiple touchdowns in the pass-heavy scheme of coach Kevin O’Connell.
He also is tied with Jalen Hurts for the most Pro Trends matched at QB this week.
This week, he’ll face the Falcons, who allowed just one rushing touchdown to Justin Herbert last week but gave up multiple touchdown passes in seven straight before that, including four passing scores to Bo Nix in Week 11 in their last road game.
The Vikings have a solid group of pass-catchers, and Darnold will look to make a statement against Cousins and the Falcons this week.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Jauan Jennings ($5,200) San Francisco 49ers (-4) vs. Chicago Bears (44 total)
The 49ers will look to bounce back from a brutal loss last week in Buffalo in the late window as they host the Bears. Jennings has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers using an evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Raybon and Carty.
Jennings missed two games with an injury, posted two monster games, and then had two quiet games over the last few weeks. His two quiet games are easy to understand, though, since one was with Brandon Allen ($4,200) at QB, and one was in a blizzard in Buffalo last week. With Brock Purdy ($6,200) back and better weather in Cali this week, Jennings should be set to bounce back.
In each of his two games since returning before those two letdowns, he drew 11 targets from Purdy. He had seven catches for 93 yards and 16.3 DraftKings points against the Bucs in Week 10 and followed that with 10 catches for 91 yards, a touchdown and 25.1 DraftKings points in Week 11. Part of his increase in targets in those games was due to the season-ending injury to Brandon Aiyuk (knee).
The 49ers may have to throw the ball a little more with Christian McCaffrey (knee) and Jordan Mason (ankle) on IR, and if they look to short passes, Jennings could be their main go-to option against the Bears.
He should be set for a bounce-back game, and he has already shown an extremely high ceiling when given big workloads this season.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Tony Pollard ($6,400) Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (39.5 total)
It’s been an uneven first year in Tennessee for Pollard, and the Titans’ offense has been very inconsistent from week to week. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs in Sean Koerner’s projections and the third-highest in Chris Raybon’s for this week, while THE BLITZ has him much lower and expects more of a timeshare with Tyjae Spears.
Last week, Pollard got almost all the work for the Titans in the backfield, but because they fell behind so big early, he had limited work overall. He finished with 9.8 DraftKings points since he saved his fantasy day with four catches for 33 yards.
Pollard showed his ceiling with 119 rushing yards, a touchdown, and 24.9 DraftKings points two weeks ago against the Texans and also racked up over 14 DraftKings points when he got 20+ carries against the Lions and Patriots earlier this season.
If the Titans can play from ahead, they should be able to get Pollard plenty of production against the Jaguars. Opposing running backs have scored four touchdowns against Jacksonville in their last two games and eight in their last five games. On the season, opposing running backs are averaging 103.6 rushing yards and 46.3 receiving yards per game against the Jags, which should set up potential big games for both Pollard and Spears (if he’s in a bigger role than last week).
The other obvious value to keep an eye on is 49ers’ running back Isaac Guerendo, who will be taking on more work for the 49ers with McCaffrey and Mason out.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
T.J. Hockenson ($4,300) Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (45.5 total)
The top two projected Plus/Minus at tight end in the aggregate projections are Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, who are both very involved and reliable but also very expensive at over $6,000. If you’re looking for a cheaper value, Hockenson is a good way to go since he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and can be a great value stack with Darnold at QB.
Hockenson has played five games since returning from a knee injury suffered last year. He eased back in but has quickly become a key part of the Vikings’ passing game. He has at least six targets in three of the last four games with 72 yards and 114 yards in two of those games to help him exceed salary-based expectations in those two games and put up over 15 DraftKings points in each game.
He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but his steady volume gives him a good ceiling against the Falcons. Last week, the Atlanta defense held Will Dissly without a catch, but on the year, they are allowing 4.5 catches for 45.25 yards per game to the position. Tight ends have also scored three touchdowns this year against the Falcons, all in the last five weeks.
