Week 14 brings us a late-season Monday Night Football doubleheader, some critical divisional matchups, and a very nice 11-game Sunday afternoon slate on DraftKings. Seven of those 11 games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET with four more wrapping things up in the late window, including a big AFC matchup between the Bills and the Chiefs.
With 22 teams in the player pool, there are many strong options to consider as you assemble your Week 14 NFL DFS squad. That Bills-Chiefs matchup is expected to be the best game environment, with the highest over/under on the slate by a wide margin over the Raiders-Vikings game, which has the second-highest over/under. The 49ers have the highest implied team total, followed by the Chiefs, Ravens, and Chargers.
As you start your prep for Sunday’s slate, let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 9, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jake Browning ($5,200) Cincinnati Bengals (+1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (40 total)
The Bengals got a huge OT win on Monday Night Football over the Jaguars behind an impressive performance from Jake Browning. Since the salaries for next week were already out, Browning is extremely cheap, given how much he proved on Monday night. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback in Chris Raybon’s projections, the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projections, and the third-highest in THE BLITZ projections. If you combine those three projections in an even three-way blend, Browning has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest Pts/Sal of all quarterbacks this week.
Browning started Monday’s victory with a barrage of short passes before opening things up and going more vertical in the second half. He finished 32 of 37 for an impressive 354 yards, highlighted by a 76-yard touchdown strike to Ja’Marr Chase. He added 22 rushing yards and another touchdown on the ground. His big game was even more impressive since it came in just his second NFL start after going undrafted in the 2019 NFL Draft despite a strong college career with Washington.
Browning will look to keep things rolling this week against the Colts, who needed overtime to knock off the Titans last week. They gave up 224 passing yards and a touchdown to Will Levis and the Titans and have given up 13 passing touchdowns in 12 games this season, along with an average of 239.6 passing yards per contest.
Expecting Browning to duplicate Monday’s performance is a tall order, but he has now shown he does have that potential. With his rock-bottom price, Browning doesn’t have to do much to end up as a good value play. He opens up all kinds of possibilities with the salary he allows you to save while still bringing a high ceiling. With Tee Higgins back and Chase as a true WR1, Browning has the playmakers to produce more big games if he can get the ball in the right players’ hands in the right places.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Michael Pittman ($7,300) Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (40 total)
On the other side of that game in Cincinnati, Michael Pittman brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the blended projections, and the FantasyLabs projections after posting a monster game last week. Pittman has become a go-to option in the Colts passing game and has been able to return excellent value as a result of his heavy workload. Even though his salary has risen over $7,000, he’s a great way to grab an elite ceiling without paying all the way to the top of the salary structure.
Pittman has at least eight catches in five straight games, averaging 9.0 catches on 12.4 targets per game and producing 80.0 yards per game over that stretch. He has over 100 yards receiving in each of his two most recent games and caught his fourth touchdown of the season as a walk-off winner in overtime last week.
He’s just over 100 yards from hitting 1,000 for the season, and his consistently heavy workload makes him a very strong play at this salary.
The Colts get a good matchup with the Bengals, who have allowed nine wide receiver touchdowns in 12 games. Opposing receivers have averaged 170.4 receiving yards per game with five touchdowns in the last five games and over 190 yards in three of their last four.
Pittman isn’t quite in the top stud plays to consider every week yet, but he does bring great upside at this mid-range salary. If you’re looking for a bargain value, rookies Jonathan Mingo and Jaxson Smith-Njigba both appear to be poised for success according to our early projections.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Zack Moss ($5,900) Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (40 total)
With Jonathan Taylor expected to be sidelined (although not ruled out yet) for a second straight week, Zack Moss will again be an obvious value and a strong play as he continues in his RB1 role at under $6,000. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at running back in all three sets of projections and the aggregated as well.
Moss didn’t go off for a huge game last week, but he was in a tough matchup against the Titans on the road in Tennessee, where they’re usually strong against the run. He managed just 51 yards on 19 carries and caught two passes for six receiving yards. He didn’t find the end zone, but in a good sign for his potential going forward, he did get eight carries and a target in the red zone. He played 67 of the team’s 71 snaps (94%) and dominated the opportunities.
This matchup should be a little better for him since the Bengals rank 21st in points allowed to running backs while the Titans rank 12th. Opposing running backs have five rushing touchdowns in the last four weeks against Cincinnati and have averaged 93.8 rushing yards and 26.8 receiving yards per game.
Even though he didn’t pay off last week, if he gets a similar workload this week, Moss is projected to be the top value on the board at the position. More players may try to fade him after being let down last week, but stick with him again at this attractive salary.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Kyle Pitts ($3,700) Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (39 total)
With the Cardinals on a bye week, the Trey McBride monopoly on this spot comes to a close or at least gets a week off. The top Projected Plus/Minus on this week’s slate at the position goes to Pitts, who takes the top spot in the aggregated projections and in THE BLITZ projections.
Pitts still hasn’t lived up to his lofty draft status or his physical potential but has been solid lately for Atlanta, and he brings a high ceiling in this matchup. Pitts has at least at least three catches in seven of his last eight games and has gone over 40 yards in five of those eight contests.
Opposing tight ends have averaged 5.7 catches for 57.4 yards per game this season against Tampa Bay and have scored three touchdowns. Pitts caught 3-of-4 targets for 47 yards against them in their first meeting this year, and he should bring a pretty solid floor this week in the rematch. He also brings a high ceiling since he has so much after-the-catch potential.
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