The NFL season is approaching the finish line, as Week 14 is upon us. As usual, DraftKings is opening contests and releasing salaries for the week ahead on Sunday evening. In the fast-changing landscape of the NFL, that leaves plenty of time for obvious value to appear.
Let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 14, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently. Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
For full access to our models, you’ll need to sign up for a FantasyLabs subscription:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Kirk Cousins ($6,100) Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Detroit Lions (53 total)
The Vikings are the latest team to visit the NFL’s Coors Field, where they take on a surging Lions team. While the Lions defense has played better recently, all but one of their home games have produced at least 50 total points.
The emergence of the Lions offense means Cousins and the Vikings will likely have to continue to pass deep into this one. Fortunately, Cousins has plenty of weapons at his disposal — including former Lions tight end TJ Hockenson ($5,100) in a revenge game.
Everything is setting up nicely for Cousins here, with an excellent matchup and expected game flow. He fits a solid trend as well.
Quarterbacks who are slight (less than three) point underdogs in games with a total of 50 or more:
Both the trend and Cousin’s game log point to him being a better cash game option. The upside on the trend is low, and he doesn’t have many impressive ceiling games. On the other hand, all it takes is one. Consider double stacking him with two of his pass catchers, though. Given his limited rushing production, he’d need to bring two receivers along with him for a big score.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Garrett Wilson ($5,900) New York Jets (+9) at Buffalo Bills (44 total)
Wilson has been on an absolute tear since Mike White ($5,500) took over at quarterback for the Jets. While it’s only a two-game sample size, Wilson has 23 targets for a 13/257/2 combined line over the past two weeks.
DraftKings is unwilling to bump prices up too drastically in any single week, leaving Wilson noticeably underpriced for his recent performance. We could consider that recency bias — had it not correlated so perfectly with the change in quarterback. Additionally, rookie receivers tend to improve as the season goes on.
The tough matchup with the Bills — as well as the rising price — means Wilson isn’t quite as obvious of a smash play as he was last week. He’s still a solid option, though, with a game flow that should have the Jets throwing a lot.
Wilson leads our Pts/Sal projections again for what should be the last opportunity to roster him below $6,000.
NFL DFS Running Back Values
D’Andre Swift ($5,800) Detroit Lions (-2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (53 total)
Swift is a solid play this week for many of the same reasons we like Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Swift is actually projecting just behind Dalvin Cook ($7,300) in Pts/Sal but has the higher price-considered ceiling.
Trusting Swift this week is tough, given his limited workload for the past month or two. The Lions have been extremely cautious with him … until last week when he handled 14 carries and saw six targets. That was in a game they won relatively easily against Jacksonville, has targets could be even higher this week.
Swift is still priced like the 8-12 touch player he had been since returning from injury, but last week certainly seemed like a change in role for him. He’ll still (frustratingly) cede goal-line work to Jamaal Williams ($5,900) but has the passing game role and big-play ability to make up for it.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
TJ Hockenson ($5,100) Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Detroit Lions (53 total)
If you haven’t noticed yet, this is a tremendous game for DFS. Hockenson is returning to the team that traded him midway through this season, with a lot of strong signs for his Week 14 production. The Lions have allowed opposing tight ends a +2.8 Plus/Minus score this season, third highest on the slate.
Additionally, Hockenson has thrived since joining the Vikings. He’s averaging eight targets per game with Minnesota, with at least four catches in every game. We should expect him to be on the higher side of that range this week though, given the expected game flow and matchup.
Hockenson trails only Travis Kelce ($7,600) in median projection this week while also coming in second in Pts/Sal.
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