The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: things like salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our Models and take a look at some of the players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 13 NFL slate.
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Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Russell Wilson vs. NYG — $7,700 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Wilson leads all QBs in terms of ceiling projection this week, but the Seahawks offense does appear to be in flux. They started the year by passing the ball at a high rate, but they have transitioned back to a more run-heavy approach over the past two weeks. Wilson has attempted 31 passes or less in each of those contests, which has resulted in a decrease in fantasy scoring. He’s logged three straight games with 20.08 DraftKings points or fewer after exceeding that mark in each of his first eight games.
The Seahawks also might not need a big performance from Wilson to win this game vs. the Giants. They haven’t made an official announcement regarding Daniel Jones’ status, but it seems likely that Colt McCoy will get the start this week at QB. McCoy has been brutal as a starting QB throughout his career, so the Giants will struggle to put up points if he’s under center.
Overall, I’m much more bearish on Wilson than our Models at the moment.
Top Value: Mitchell Trubisky vs. DET — $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
Trubisky is very cheap across the industry, and he stands out as one of the best values at the position. He ranks first among QBs in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and third at the position on FanDuel.
Trubisky was terrible last week vs. the Packers, but he’s in a prime bounce-back spot this week vs. the Lions. He’s had massive success vs. the Lions in the past, racking up three touchdown passes in each of his past four games vs. Detroit. Trubisky has ultimately posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.27 in six career starts vs. the Lions (per the Trends tool).
The Lions have also been a great matchup for all QBs this season. Trubisky owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.8 on FanDuel, which is tied for the third-highest mark at the position.
Top Ownership: Aaron Rodgers vs. PHI — $6,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
No one is expected to be super chalky at QB this week. There are a handful of guys projected for 9-12% ownership, including Wilson, Justin Herbert, and Rodgers.
Rodgers is in the midst of a career resurgence in 2020. Some people were starting to doubt his credentials as an elite QB, but he has silenced all the critics with a brilliant campaign. His 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt is his best mark since winning the MVP back in 2014, and he’s also racked up a league-high 33 touchdown passes.
He’s been excellent from a fantasy perspective recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his past six starts. He should have no problem against an Eagles’ defense that ranks just 20th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Dalvin Cook vs. JAX — $9,500 on DraftKings, $10,500 on FanDuel
Running back has been a wasteland this season, with big names like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Joe Mixon all missing extended periods of time. That has allowed Cook to assume the mantle as the top RB in fantasy football. He’s averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game in full PPR scoring, which is the top mark among all RBs who’ve played at least four games.
That said, there are some concerns with Cook this week vs. the Jaguars. It’s obviously a great matchup – the Jaguars rank dead-last in defensive DVOA this season – but the Vikings have expressed some interest in limiting Cook’s workload. He’s currently dealing with an ankle injury, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak said he’s “just kind of beat up” right now.
The Vikings have a capable backup in Alexander Mattison, so it would make sense to limit Cook’s touches in a game they should win easily. The Vikings are currently favored by 10.5 points, and they’re going to need Cook healthy to make a push for the playoffs.
Top Value: David Montgomery vs. DET — $5,500 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
Montgomery continues to handle one of the best workloads at the position relative to his price tag. He’s played on at least 81% of the Bears’ offensive snaps in six of his past seven games, and he commands work as both a runner and a receiver. Overall, he’s averaged 15.8 carries and 4.8 targets over his past five games.
The only thing he really hasn’t done is score touchdowns, which has kept his fantasy value in check. He finally managed to find the endzone last week vs. the Packers, and he finished with 28.3 DraftKings points.
This matchup vs. the Lions is just as good for Montgomery as it is for Trubisky, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.3 on DraftKings.
Top Ownership: Austin Ekeler vs. NE — $7,100 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Ekeler made his return from an extended injury absence last week, and the Chargers wasted no time throwing him into the fire. He played on 72% of their offensive snaps and finished with 14 carries and 16 targets. He even got three carries and two targets inside the red zone but was ultimately unable to score a touchdown.
The 16 targets is clearly not sustainable, but there’s no reason he can’t get somewhere in the 8-10 range this week vs. the Patriots. That production is a pass catcher is extremely valuable from a fantasy perspective, which is why he’s expected to be the highest-owned player on the slate. He’s currently projected for at least 30% ownership across the industry, and that number could be even higher on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams vs. PHI — $9,000 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
Expect to find Adams in this spot every time he’s on the main slate. No one at the position can match his combination of volume and efficiency. Adams has logged at least eight targets in each of his past seven games – including at least 10 in five of them – and he’s scored a touchdown in all but one of those contests.
That said, his matchup this week isn’t ideal. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.1 on DraftKings, and he’s expected to be shadowed by the Eagles’ top corner in Darius Slay.
Still, Adams is as matchup-proof as they come, and he still owns a massive edge over Slay in terms of Pro Football Focus grade. D.K. Metcalf was able to destroy Slay on Monday Night Football last week, and there’s no reason that Adams can’t do the same.
Top Value: Jarvis Landry @ TEN — $6,200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Landry is a strong play across the industry this week, but he’s a particularly strong value on FanDuel. His $6,000 price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Landry’s recent game log isn’t particularly impressive, but it’s important to put it into context. The Browns have played in a bunch of games with horrendous weather conditions, which has made it tough for Baker Mayfield to pass. They finally got some decent weather last week in Jacksonville, and Landry responded with 11 targets, eight catches, 143 yards, and a touchdown.
The weather in Tennessee this week is expected to be perfect for football, so that shouldn’t be an issue. The Titans are also an excellent matchup for WRs, giving Landry an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.0 on FanDuel.
Top Ownership: Brandin Cooks vs. IND — $5,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
The Texans have been playing much better since firing Bill O’Brien, but they’re going to have to overcome the absence of Will Fuller for the rest of the season. He was suspended for six games after testing positive for performance enhancing drugs, which leaves the team without their top playmaker on offense.
Cooks is the most obvious candidate to step up in his absence. He’s fared well as the No. 2 WR for the Texans recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in six of his past seven games, and he should see a bump in targets this week vs. the Colts.
However, it remains to be seen if Cooks can take advantage. The Colts have been one of the better defensive teams in football this season, and they currently rank sixth in pass defense DVOA. Cooks is expected to be the highest-owned WR across the industry, so there could be some value in fading him in tournaments.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Darren Waller @ NYJ — $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce is off the main slate once again this week, which leaves Waller with the top ceiling projection at the TE position. Waller has been a bit disappointing recently – he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in two of his past three games – but he continues to command one of the top target market shares at the position. He’s logged at least seven targets in three of his past four games.
Waller is also in an excellent spot this week vs. the Jets. They’re currently implied for 27.75 points, which is one of the top marks on the slate. There aren’t a ton of games that stand out this week from a Vegas perspective, but the Raiders should have no problem putting up points vs. the lowly Jets.
Top Value: Hayden Hurst vs. NO — $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
Hurst has somewhat quietly been one of the most reliable TEs in fantasy recently. He was held without a catch two weeks ago against the Saints, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six contests.
His target share also rivals Waller’s recently. He’s logged at least seven targets in four of his past five games, but the lone exception was against the Saints.
Top Ownership: Jordan Akins vs. IND — $2,900 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Akins is another member of the Texans who is expected to be popular this week. Not only are they missing Fuller, they’re also going to be without Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. Cobb was placed on injured reserve, while Stills was flat out released. That leaves just Keke Coutee and possibly Isaiah Coulter to supplement Cooks at the WR position.
With that in mind, expect Akins and Darren Fells to see plenty of playing time moving forward. Fells saw more snaps at TE last week, but Akins is the superior producer as a receiver. Going cheap at TE has been the preferred strategy for most of the season, and Akins looks like the chalky option for those employing that strategy this week.
