As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players in the long term.
While not quite a single-bullet takedown, user “cantgetright903” needed just two lineups to win the million-dollar first prize — with their other lineup using none of the same players and failing to cash. Either way, I’m sure the first-place win more than made up for the miss on the other lineup.
The Lineup
The Stack
For the second time in the last three weeks, a Brock Purdy-led team turned somebody into a millionaire. Last time, it was Purdy by himself, though this time, he brought one of his receivers along with him for the ride.
That being Deebo Samuel. The 49ers have been a tough team to stack all season in DFS, largely thanks to the abundance of strong options they have at receiver. Rarely do multiple pass catchers from the 49ers have GPP-winning days together, but each of the four primary options have multiple games of 30 points on the season (with the exception of George Kittle, whose top games have been in the upper 20s — but that’s still GPP-winning at tight end).
I’d love to have a solid reason — even in hindsight — that it was Samuel this week. The Eagles have been more vulnerable to wideouts than other positions, but that still leaves Brandon Aiyuk as a possible option. Perhaps cantgetright903 has figured out something I haven’t, or maybe they just got lucky using the cheaper player that made the rest of the lineup work.
There is no bring-back to this stack, but that was easy to see even at the time. Most of the Eagles scoring is through Jalen Hurts, who obviously can’t be paired with Purdy. In cases like this, not having a bringback makes perfect sense.
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The Chalk
Obviously, we have to talk about Zack Moss. Moss hit unprecedented levels of ownership in all contest types. He was obviously a strong on-paper play — though there was also a case to be made for fading him. On the positive side, he was cheap enough that even with a disappointing score your lineups remained alive. That’s exactly what happened here, with a bad score from Moss, but such high ownership it didn’t really matter.
The only other players with double-digit ownership in this lineup were either part of the stack, or the Patriots Defense. I’m fairly confident their logic behind clicking New England was to simply play the cheapest defense possible (that isn’t facing Miami) and go from there. It worked out, as none of the higher-priced defenses had “have to have it” scores.
The Sleepers
Most of this lineup falls under the sleeper category, including Derrick Henry. I was high on Derrick Henry this week, as I pointed out in my Main Slate Breakdown. While there’s some light negative correlation between opposing backs, Moss was cheap enough to render that a non-issue.
Nico Collins and the Houston passing attack had a great setup against the Broncos. Most of the field was higher on Tank Dell, who unfortunately went down with an injury — unless you rostered Collins — who saw a bump in usage as the de facto top option in Houston.
Mike Evans was an excellent leverage play over the somewhat chalky Rachaad White this week. Most of the field was interested in the Bucs rushing game, leaving Evans (and Godwin) both at lower ownership. It’s worth considering angles like that when fading popular players.
Ditto with Sam LaPorta, as it looked like the Lions ground game would rule the day. They mostly did — Jared Goff threw for just 213 yards — but nearly two-thirds of his yards went to LaPorta.
Finally, one sleeper that didn’t work out was Greg Dortch. Like Moss, he was cheap enough not to really kill lineups, even without a good score. It was lucky that none of the other receivers in his price range posted big scores.
