The Week 13 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Broncos at Jaguars
The Jaguars will host the Broncos as 4.5-point underdogs. The Jaguars are currently implied to score 17.75 points, while the Broncos are currently implied to score 22.75 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Denver Broncos
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Paxton Lynch
Starter Trevor Siemian (foot) missed practice this week and is officially out. In his place first-round rookie Paxton Lynch will make his second start of the season. In his first start, Lynch completed 65.7 percent of his 35 passes for 223 yards and a touchdown at home against the Falcons in a 23-16 loss. For reference, the Falcons allow the most fantasy points in the league to opposing QBs. His matchup this week isn’t as good, as the Jags are allowing only 16.9 DK and 16.5 FD points per game to QBs.
The Jags rank 14th in pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders, so they’re not elite . . . but they could look like it this weekend.
RB – Devontae Booker
The Jaguars defense funnels production toward the run, as they are 23rd in RB aFPA (schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed) but very good in the secondary. Booker has seen the sixth-most opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four games and seems like a good bet to get in the end zone in Week 13. He has a top-10 Projected Plus/Minus among RBs and an 86 percent Bargain Rating on FD; he’s currently projected for just two to four percent ownership in the Sunday Million. Per our Trends tool, road favored running backs at a comparable salary and point projection typically perform well above salary-based expectations:
RB – Kapri Bibbs
The Jaguars are second in pass DVOA against RBs and Booker is still the favorite to lead this backfield in touches in Week 13. Bibbs definitely has talent, but opportunity is everything for running backs and he has yet to get 10 touches in a single game this year.
WR – Demaryius Thomas
The top-two options in this offense are intriguing pretty much every week for two reasons:
- They are both super-talented.
- The target distribution in Denver is extremely narrow.
The top-two options in this offense are scary pretty much every week for one reason:
- Investing in their quarterback is terrifying.
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Thomas has the eighth-highest target share over the past four weeks in the NFL. So there’s that.
WR – Emmanuel Sanders
After a ceiling week that won a lot of people money on Sunday night, Sanders is likely to see increased ownership this week. He quietly has the fifth-highest target share in the league over his past four games, but, again, those targets have been coming from Siemian. A high target share is less appealing when your quarterback doesn’t throw catchable balls consistently. That said, Sanders is capable of huge weeks and is interesting in tournaments, especially on FD, where he owns a 92 percent Bargain Rating. He could get extra volume as well if Thomas is shadowed by CB Jalen Ramsey this week.
WR – Jordan Norwood
Norwood has averaged just 2.75 targets per game over the past four. He has one touchdown all season and dreams of the day when someone accidentally forgets to take him out of a dummy lineup.
TE – Virgil Green
The red-zone looks from the preseason have not carried over for Green: He has just three this entire season. Siemian doesn’t look to his TEs nearly enough to make Green even a viable punt play. A fluky TD could happen, but there are better TE investments in this slate.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Blake Bortles
Bortles has thrown for multiple touchdowns in five consecutive games but failed to surpass 205 passing yards during the past two weeks against the Lions and Bills. This week, he’ll face a Broncos defense that has made much better quarterbacks look very bad this season:
As our Trends tool shows, QBs facing the Broncos this season have posted a -2.78 Plus/Minus with 27.3 percent Consistency and have averaged just 14.08 DK points. Only Cam Newton, Drew Brees, and Alex Smith (there’s a joke here) have surpassed their salary-based expectations against the Broncos this season. Bortles is minimum-priced on DK with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
RB – Chris Ivory
Ivory (hamstring) has been ruled out.
RB – T.J. Yeldon
With Ivory out, Yeldon (ankle) theoretically should have the backfield all to himself — but Yeldon himself is dealing with an injury. He’s expected to play but the degree to which he’ll be used is uncertain.
He hasn’t had more than 12 touches in a game since Week 4 and hasn’t done much with the opportunities he’s been given. Overall, Yeldon has averaged 0.74 fantasy points per opportunity and 4.3 yards per touch – marks that rank outside of the top-45 among all running backs this season. Bortles ranks seventh among all QBs with 5.3 red-zone pass attempts per game, so Yeldon might not even see much usage near the goal line.
The Broncos have struggled against the run for stretches this season, but they now have a healthy Derek Wolfe back in the lineup – PFF’s 16th-best interior defender against the run this season.
Yeldon’s priced at $5,000 on FD with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and has six Pro Trends.
RB – Denard Robinson
We’ve officially reach the point in the season when it’s time for us to pretend that D-Rob is an NFL RB. With Yeldon injured, there’s a non-zero chance that Shoelace sees a significant number of snaps against the Broncos.
WR – Allen Robinson
Player A in 2016: 53 receptions, 591 yards, and six touchdowns.
Player B in 2016: 46 receptions, 581 yards, and two touchdowns.
Player A is A-Rob; Player B is Marqise Lee. The most concerning part about the statistics above is that Robinson has been targeted 37 more times than Lee this season. A-Rob appeared to be breaking out of his early-season slump but has just five receptions for 42 yards and one touchdown over the past two weeks. He’s had eight or fewer targets in four out of his last seven games and will now face off against Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. – PFF’s top-two highest-graded cornerbacks this season. A-Rob is priced at $5,800 on DK with five Pro Trends and faces a Broncos defense that has allowed 3.6 points below salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months.
WR – Allen Hurns
Hurns (hamstring) has been ruled out for Week 13.
WR – Marqise Lee
Lee has been the only consistent Jaguars receiver this season, as he’s had at least four receptions in nine of his 11 games. He has a good chance at reaching that threshold again if Hurns is ultimately unable to play, but it’s still hard to get behind Bortles’ No. 3 receiver against the Broncos. They’ve shown no weaknesses against any pass catchers this season, as the Broncos defense ranks in the top-four in DVOA against No. 1, No. 2, and other wide receivers. Lee is priced at $4,000 on DK and has a +2.33 Projected Plus/Minus.
TE – Julius Thomas
Thomas (back) is doubtful and expected not to play. So much for the #RevengeGame. Someone claiming to be named “Ben Koyack” will fill in for Thomas. Amazingly, Koyack seems to snag everything thrown at him, with a 90.9 percent catch rate. Then again, he has only 11 targets on the season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
