The Week 13 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 1, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Tyreek Hill: $8,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
- Chris Godwin: $7,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
- Mike Evans: $6,900 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
- Robert Woods: $5,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Odds as of Friday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
Tyreek Hill: Kansas City Chiefs (-10) vs. Oakland Raiders, 50.5 Over/Under
Hill (hamstring) left Week 11 early with an injury, but he had the Week 12 bye to recover and practiced fully on Wednesday, so he should suit up this weekend.
As bizarre as this sounds, we have just one month left in the season, and yet Hill has played just two full games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes because of how their injuries have overlapped. Hill played only 12 snaps in Week 1, and then he missed Weeks 2-5. He returned in Week 6, but then Mahomes suffered an in-game injury the following week and missed the next two games. They played together in Week 10, but then Hill was injured in Week 11.
In his two full games with Mahomes this year, Hill has been unstoppable (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool and the RotoViz Game Splits App).
- Fantasy production: 25.0 FanDuel points, 13.5 Plus/Minus, 100 Consistency Rating
- Football production: 120 yards and 1.5 touchdowns from scrimmage on 14.5 targets, eight receptions and 0.5 carries per game
Even for Tyreek, that’s outstanding.
In his full 20 career games with Mahomes (including playoffs), Hill has averaged 18.3 FanDuel points, 101 scrimmage yards and 0.9 all-purpose touchdowns on 9.1 targets, 5.6 receptions, 1.2 carries and 1.3 punt returns per game.
In his five full games this year, Tyreek has been a fantasy WR1 four times despite playing mostly with backup quarterback Matt Moore, who literally was an assistant high-school football coach in August (per the RotoViz NFL Stats Explorer).
For the year, Hill is No. 2 in the league with 143.3 air yards and yards after the catch combiner per game (per AirYards.com). If you remove his two partial games, Hill is easily No. 1 with an unreal mark of 184.6.
In his full games, Hill has provided a superabundance of Plus/Minus value, especially on FanDuel, where he’s hit salary-based expectations each week.
For a player with Hill’s skill set, matchups almost don’t matter, but all the same, Hill has a great matchup. The Raiders are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). They have struggled immensely to defend receivers who get downfield: Just last week, the struggling Robby Anderson had one of his best games of the year against them with a 4-86-1 receiving performance on five targets.
The wide receivers to face the Raiders this year with salaries comparable to Hill’s have averaged 16.2 FanDuel points per game with a +5.00 Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency Rating.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10).
Hill missed the Week 2 matchup with the Raiders, and in Week 13 last year he underwhelmed with just 40 yards and a reception on six targets and two carries against them. But in their Week 17 rematch, he went off with 116 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets, five receptions and one carry. Hill can put up fantasy points against the Raiders.
Hill’s specific cornerback matchup is highly advantageous. Although he moves across the formation, Hill tends to line up most in the slot, and cornerback Lamarcus Joyner is the league’s worst starting slot defender by coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus). He has allowed a pitiful 76.5% catch rate this year.
And Joyner (hamstring) missed Weeks 11-12 with an injury and is uncertain for Week 13, so Hill might match up with backup Nevin Lawson — the guy who isn’t good enough to beat out the league’s worst slot corner. Last week, Lawson allowed a 4-49-1 receiving line on five targets.
In his five full games this year, Hill has averaged 10.4 targets. If he sees volume like that this week, he could go off for 150 yards and two touchdowns against either Joyner or Lawson.
And when Hill shifts to the perimeter, he should also have success. No. 1 cornerback Darryl Worley allowed a 4-93-1 receiving line on seven targets against the Chiefs in Week 2, and No. 2 corner Trayvon Mullen is a rookie with just five NFL starts.
Hill is expensive, but the Chiefs have a slate-high 30.5-point implied Vegas total. He is an option for both cash games and guaranteed prize pools, but if you go with Hill in tournaments, be sure to differentiate your lineups in some other way.
Hill is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan, Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +4.15 Projected Plus/Minus and 99% Bargain Rating.
Chris Godwin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 47.5 O/U
The appeal of Godwin is clear. He’s one of the most dynamic playmakers in the league. When he goes off, he goes all the way. He has an NFL-high three games this year with 125 yards and two touchdowns receiving. Only one other player has two such games: Teammate Mike Evans.
Godwin — along with Michael Thomas — leads all wide receivers with five games of 20-plus FanDuel points.
The drawback with Godwin is that he shares the field with Evans, which results in inconsistent target volume and usage. When he’s not a fantasy WR1, he’s usually a WR3.
So for cash games he’s probably too risky, but for GPPs, Godwin is perfection.
The No. 2 fantasy wide receiver, Godwin trails only Thomas with his 18.1 FanDuel points per game and 1,071 yards on the season.
Despite rankings No. 11 with 98 targets, Godwin is No. 1 with nine touchdowns, No. 3 with 1,494 air yards and yards after the catch and No. 4 with 70 receptions.
Just last week, Godwin had a slate-leading 7-184-2 performance on eight targets. He’s playing as well as any other receiver in the league.
Godwin’s matchup is intriguing. The Jags are thought of as having an elite defense, but they are No. 26 in PFF coverage grade. The team traded No. 1 cornerback Jalen Ramsey in Week 7, and No. 2 corner A.J. Bouye hasn’t been used in shadow coverage since the Week 10 bye.
And even if Bouye does tail a receiver this week, that guy will almost certainly be Evans, not Goodwin, who plays mainly in the slot, where he gets soft matchups and this week will face D.J. Hayden.
Since joining the Jags last year and moving from the perimeter to the slot, Hayden has had above-average PFF coverage grades and allowed just one touchdown. But he has also allowed a 72.2% catch rate with the Jags, and Godwin is a prolific after-the-catch yardage accumulator.
If Hayden lets Godwin turn a high percentage of his targets into receptions, he could have a massive game.
Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and over the past year, Godwin has had a strong 0.51 correlation with quarterback Jameis Winston. If Godwin has had a big game, Winston probably has as well. For GPPs, use our Lineup Builder to stack Godwin with Winston.
Godwin leads all receivers with his floor projection on FanDuel, where he is the No. 1 option in the CSURAM88 Model and has a strong 94% Bargain Rating.
Mike Evans: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 47.5 O/U
Through three months, Evans has been outproduced by superstar slot teammate Chris Godwin, but Evans is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory: He has nothing to be ashamed of.
Even though he has to share targets with Godwin, the incomparable Evans still ranks No. 6 in the league with 9.5 targets per game. What’s more, he’s No. 1 with 164.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game and also No. 1 with 1.2 end-zone targets per game.
With that kind of usage, it’s no surprise that he’s the No. 3 fantasy receiver with 19.9 DraftKings points per game.
On a weekly basis, Evans is a volatile player. No doubt about it.
This season, he has been a fantasy WR1 in five weeks and no better than a WR3 in six weeks. In one game, he had zero receptions on just three targets. To quote Shakespeare: “Zounds!”
And he hasn’t hit salary-based expectations in any of his past three games.
But his year-over-year production has been incredibly consistent.
- 2014 (15 games): 1,051 yards
- 2015 (15 games): 1,206 yards
- 2016 (16 games): 1,321 yards
- 2017 (15 games): 1,001 yards
- 2018 (16 games): 1,524 yards
- 2019 (12 games): 1,043 yards
Evans and Randy Moss are the only players in NFL history to open their careers with six consecutive 1,000-yard receiving campaigns.
Since his target-deficient no-show against the Saints in Week 5, the Bucs have made it a point to get the ball to Evans: Over his past six games, he has averaged 112.5 yards receiving and 0.5 touchdowns on 11.2 targets and 7.3 receptions.
Against the Jags, Evans doesn’t have a great matchup, but it’s not horrible. Over the past two weeks, cornerback A.J. Bouye hasn’t shadowed opposing No. 1 receivers, but he and Evans tend to line up on the same side of the field anyway, so one way or another, Evans and Bouye will see plenty of each other.
But Bouye is no longer the imposing presence he was in 2016-18. His PFF coverage grade has precipitously dropped.
- 2016 (15 games): 89.9
- 2017 (16 games): 84.7
- 2018 (13 games): 79.3
- 2019 (10 games): 65.8
Over the past month, Bouye has allowed 58 yards and a touchdown per game with an 81.3% catch rate. Last week, rookie receiver A.J. Brown woodshedded Bouye with 84 yards and a touchdown on two targets.
If Brown can go off on Bouye and the Jags with a career-high 135 yards in total, Evans can have a similar performance.
Evans is probably too volatile for cash games, but he leads all receivers with his ceiling projections and is a worthy GPP investment.
Evans is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +3.57 Projected Plus/Minus.
Evans also leads the position with eight Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the top option in the Bales Model.
Robert Woods: Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals, 47.5 O/U
Even though the Rams offense has regressed this year, Woods is still getting regular action. Since the Week 9 bye, he’s averaged 96 yards on 10 targets and 6.5 receptions per game. On top of that, he has 12 carries in 10 games. He has multiple means of producing.
Despite having 80 targets this year, Woods is yet to score a receiving touchdown, so the general perception of him is highly negative. But in 2017-18, Woods had a 4.28% touchdown rate (including playoffs). If he continues to get his targets, he’s likely to have improved touchdown luck relatively soon.
And Woods has a strong matchup. The Cardinals are No. 32 in PFF coverage grade and have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers with 40.0 per game.
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Robert Woods (17).
When the Rams and Cardinals played last year, No. 1 cornerback Patrick Peterson shadowed Brandin Cooks, not Woods, and I expect Cooks to get the Peterson treatment once again this year.
Given that matchup, the Rams could funnel targets away from Cooks and toward Woods, who seems likely to run most of his routes against rookie cornerback Byron Murphy, who has been playing opposite Peterson on the perimeter.
While Murphy has started every game this year and could develop into a shutdown defender, he’s raw right now. Murphy is the No. 103 PFF corner out of 121 qualified players, and he’s allowed an NFL-high seven receiving touchdowns. With this matchup and his recent volume, Woods has 100-yard, multi-touchdown potential.
Finally, Woods is cheap and fits any roster, especially on DraftKings, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating and will have a single-digit ownership rate. With Woods, you have increased roster flexibility and a player who won’t be chalky.
Woods is the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high six Pro Trends.
Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams ($7,100 DK, $7,800 FD): Since Week 6, Kupp has just one fantasy WR1 performance, but for the season, he is No. 7 with 9.5 targets per game and has five games with 20-plus DraftKings points. He has a great matchup against slot cornerback Kevin Peterson, a career special-teamer who has allowed a 73.7% catch rate this year.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers ($7,000 DK, $8,000 FD): A prolific scorer, Adams has just one touchdown on the season, but he will eventually find the end zone. Since returning from injury in Week 9, Adams has averaged 11 targets per game, and for the year, he’s No. 3 with 140 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. The Giants have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers with 43.3 per game.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers ($6,800 DK, $6,800 FD): The second-year 22-year-old playmaker is starting to come on with 30-442-2 receiving on 45 targets over the past month. With his sophomore-season production, Moore is comparable to the younger versions of DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans and Amari Cooper as an emerging asset. He has top-five marks on FanDuel with a 97% Bargain Rating and six Pro Trends.
D.J. Chark Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,600 DK, $6,900 FD): The sophomore breakout is the No. 4 fantasy wide receiver with 14.9 FanDuel points per game and a scorching +7.12 Plus/Minus. In his two full games with quarterback Nick Foles, Chark has averaged 10.5 targets per game. Chark has a great matchup against the Buccaneers, who have allowed a league-high 494.2 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns ($6,400 DK, $7,400 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Landry has averaged 21.5 DraftKings points on 10.6 targets per game. The Steelers are No. 4 in pass defense DVOA, so the matchup isn’t good, but against the Steelers two weeks ago, Landry had a respectable 4-43-1 performance on seven targets.
Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals ($5,700 DK, $6,100 FD): The second-year receiver is likely to face shadow coverage from cornerback Jalen Ramsey, but Kirk is coming off the bye, and since returning from injury in Week 8, Kirk leads the team with 35 targets, 22 receptions, 266 yards and three touchdowns. For his career, Ramsey has allowed a catch rate of just 55.6%, but with the Rams he has been more exploitable with a mark of 72%. Kirk is best used on FanDuel, where he has a strong 94% Bargain Rating.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($5,700 DK, $6,000 FD): Over the past three weeks without wide receiver Preston Williams (knee, IR), Parker has averaged 10.3 targets, six receptions and 98.3 yards per game. As unlikely as this sounds, Parker is pacing for the first 1,000-yard campaign of his career. The Dolphins will likely have a pass-heavy game script as double-digit underdogs, and the Eagles have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers with 32.2 per game on FanDuel, where Parker has a robust 95% Bargain Rating.
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets ($5,600 DK, $6,300 FD): In his eight games with quarterback Sam Darnold, the slot-bound Crowder has averaged 63.1 yards receiving and 0.38 touchdowns on 7.9 targets and 5.9 receptions. Even with his 18-yard performance in Week 12, Crowder has averaged 16 DraftKings points over the past month. The Bengals are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA.
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,500 DK, $6,000 FD): The return of quarterback Andy Dalton to the lineup drastically improves Boyd’s circumstances. The Bengals are without wide receivers A.J. Green (ankle) and John Ross (clavicle, IR), so Boyd will continue to operate as the No. 1 pass-catching option in the offense. Boyd is tied for No. 8 in the league with 9.4 targets per game, and just last week he flashed his upside with a dynamic 101-yard, one-touchdown performance. The Jets have a funnel defense that ranks No. 2 against the run but No. 17 against the pass in DVOA
Tyrell Williams, Oakland Raiders ($5,400 DK, $6,200 FD): Williams has just five targets per game since returning from injury in Week 8, but he should see more usage this week with slot receiver Hunter Renfrow (ribs) on the sideline. Williams leads the team with 93.0 air yards and yards after the catch per game, and in his five weeks with a touchdown, Williams has averaged 16.7 DraftKings points.
Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,400 DK, $6,100 FD): Watkins (illness) missed practice on Thursday but is expected to play. He has finished as no better than a fantasy WR3 in every week this season but one, yet with an average of 8.5 targets across his eight full games, Watkins is beyond due for positive regression. The Raiders are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers.
Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,100 DK, $6,500 FD): Jeffery (ankle) missed Weeks 11-12 with an injury, but he has practiced this week and is tentatively expected to play. In his seven full games this year, Jeffery has averaged 7.9 targets per game. The Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA.
Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,000 DK, $5,700 FD): It increasingly seems like “Fetch” is never going to happen. Even so, Westbrook has averaged 7.7 targets in his nine full games, and last week he had an 8-69-0 performance on nine targets. The Bucs have the league’s most extreme funnel defense, ranking No. 1 against the run but No. 25 against the pass in DVOA, and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting has allowed an 85.7% completion rate in his two games as the team’s primary slot defender.
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants ($4,900 DK, $5,900 FD): Shepard had just 15 yards receiving last week in his return from injury, but he had good volume with nine targets and a carry. Teammate Golden Tate (concussion) is expected to be out, so Shepard will get to play in the slot, where he has performed his best. In his two slot games with quarterback Daniel Jones in Weeks 3-4, Shepard averaged 23.5 DraftKings points, 110 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on nine targets, seven receptions and 1.5 carries per game.
Robby Anderson, New York Jets ($4,800 DK, $6,100 FD): Anderson has scored a touchdown in 40% of his 20 games with quarterback Sam Darnold, and in those games he’s averaged 20.7 DraftKings points per game. His odds of scoring a touchdown seem much higher than his likely ownership rate in tournaments. The Bengals are No. 30 in PFF coverage grade and without No. 1 cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR).
Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers ($4,800 DK, $5,800 FD): The third-year Percy Harvin clone has averaged 16.9 DraftKings points in his four games this year with a touchdown. Over the past month, Samuel has averaged just 6.3 targets per game as teammate D.J. Moore has broke out, but he has a good matchup against cornerback Fabian Moreau, who has allowed an 83.3% catch rate this year.
Zach Pascal, Indianapolis Colts ($4,700 DK, $5,400 FD): Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (calf) and tight end Eric Ebron (ankle, IR) are out, so Pascal will likely see extra volume. In his six Hilton-less games since last year, Pascal has averaged 6.7 targets. The Titans have a funnel defense that ranks No. 5 against the run but No. 23 against the pass in DVOA.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,600 DK, $5,700 FD): Williams has averaged a strong 80.7 receiving yards per game since Week 9, yet he’s priced exactly the same now as he was then. After scoring 11 touchdowns last year, Williams has zero this year despite pacing for his first 1,000-yard season and increasing his yardage per target from 10.1 to 10.7. Williams leads the Chargers with eight end-zone targets. At some point, his opportunities will translate into touchdowns.
Chris Conley, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,500 DK, $6,000 FD): Over the past six weeks, Conley has averaged 65 yards on 7.8 targets per game. A big-play specialist, Conley has averaged 22.5 DraftKings points this year in his two games with a touchdown. He has an exploitable matchup against rookie cornerback Jamel Dean, who has yielded 187 yards and three touchdowns in his three games of sustained action.
Auden Tate, Cincinnati Bengals ($3,800 DK, $5,200 FD): With wide receivers A.J. Green (ankle) and John Ross (clavicle, IR) out, Tate will continue play as the team’s top perimeter option. Since entering the starting lineup in Week 3, Tate has averaged 54.1 yards on 7.4 targets and 3.8 receptions per game. He has just one touchdown on the year but is No. 4 in the league with 10 end-zone targets. The Jets have been starting third-string cornerbacks Arthur Maulet and Blessuan Austin on the perimeter because Trumaine Johnson (ankle, IR) is out for the year, Darryl Roberts (calf) has missed the past three weeks and Nate Hairston has been benched.
Geronimo Allison, Green Bay Packers ($3,800 DK, $4,900 FD): Although he has underwhelmed this year, Allison has a steady role as the slot receiver for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Giants are No. 29 in PFF pass coverage grade and now starting sixth-round rookie third-string defensive back Corey Ballentine as the slot corner. Last week, he yielded 12-188-1 receiving on 14 targets.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Philadelphia Eagles ($3,200 DK, $4,900 FD): A big-bodied contested-catch artist, Whiteside has done little as a rookie, but last week he had a season-high 72% snap rate. In the wake of Jordan Matthews’ release, head coach Doug Pederson has said that JJAW will have a larger role in the offense. The Dolphins are No. 31 in PFF coverage grade and currently starting undrafted third-stringers Nik Needham, Ken Crawley and Jomal Wiltz at corner.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13)
Photo credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports
