The Week 13 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 1, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are two quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Patrick Mahomes: $7,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
- Aaron Rodgers: $6,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City Chiefs (-10) vs. Oakland Raiders, 51.5 Over/Under
There’s so much to like about Mahomes.
Last season, he was easily the No. 1 fantasy quarterback with 26.2 FanDuel points per game. He provided a superabundance of value with his +7.11 Plus/Minus. He led the league with an ostentatious 9.6 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A). This season, he once again leads the league with a 9.6 AY/A. Despite missing most of Week 7 and all of Weeks 8-9, Mahomes leads the NFL with 11 games of 300 yards or more and three-plus touchdowns since last season. He’s still the league’s best passing quarterback.
2019 belongs to Lamar Jackson, and rightfully so, but daily fantasy investors ought not to sell Mahomes short. He’s the No. 2 fantasy quarterback this season with 23.7 FanDuel points per game (excluding his injury-shortened Week 7).
Last season, he averaged 309.4 passing yards and 15.7 rushing yards per game (including playoffs). Even with Week 7 included, he’s bumped those numbers up to 315 and 16.2 so far. Mahomes is every bit the MVP-caliber player he was last season.
Since last year, in every full game he’s played, Mahomes has been at least a high-end fantasy QB2 (per the RotoViz NFL Stats Explorer).
You get the idea: Mahomes is good. And coming off the bye, Mahomes should be as healthy as he’s been since suffering the knee injury that caused him to miss a few weeks.
Maybe most importantly, Mahomes has a great matchup. The Raiders are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders), and they have allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks with 22.1 per game. Just last week, Sam Darnold put up a top-three fantasy performance against them with 315 yards passing and three touchdowns total.
The four quarterbacks priced similarly to Mahomes to face the Raiders this season have averaged an unreal 32.3 FanDuel points with a +14.65 Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool). Naturally, Mahomes is one of those quarterbacks: In Week 2, he passed for 443 yards and four touchdowns in Oakland.
In three career starts against the divisional rival Raiders, Mahomes has outperformed his already lofty standards (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
Averaging 27.7 FanDuel points per game against them, Mahomes has been an extreme version of his MVP self when facing the Raiders. No. 1 wide receiver Tyreek Hill (hamstring) left Week 11 early with an injury, but he’s tentatively expected to be healthy out of the bye, so Mahomes should have his full complement of aerial playmakers.
Hill in particular has a highly advantageous matchup. Although he moves across the formation, Hill tends to line up most in the slot, and cornerback Lamarcus Joyner is the league’s worst starting slot defender by coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus). He has allowed a pitiful 76.5% catch rate this year.
And Joyner (hamstring) missed Weeks 11-12 with an injury and is uncertain for Week 13, so Hill might match up with backup Nevin Lawson — the guy who isn’t good enough to beat out the league’s worst slot corner. Last week, Lawson allowed a 4-49-1 receiving line on five targets.
In his five full games this year, Hill has averaged 10.4 targets. If he sees volume like that this week and runs most of his routes against Lawson, he could get 150 yards and two touchdowns for Mahomes all on his own.
The matchup is also especially good for tight end Travis Kelce, who in three games against the Raiders with Mahomes has averaged 112.3 yards and one touchdown. Over the past half decade, Kelce has had a 0.77 correlation with his quarterback (per our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool). If Mahomes has a big game, Kelce probably will too. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Mahomes with Kelce or any of his other receivers.
Mahomes is expensive, but the Chiefs have a slate-high 30.5-point implied Vegas total. I’d prefer to pay down at the position in cash games, but it’s hard to argue against Mahomes’ matchup and consistency.
Mahomes is the unanimous No. 1 quarterback in our Pro Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +5.46 Projected Plus/Minus and 65 Bargain Rating. He’s also the top option in the Freedman Model for DraftKings, where he has position-high median, ceiling and floor projections in our Models.
Aaron Rodgers: Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at New York Giants, 45.5 O/U
After the Packers beat the Chiefs in Week 8 thanks to Rodgers’ 305-yard, three-touchdown performance, he garnered some MVP talk. Since then, he’s averaged 166 yards and 0.67 touchdowns passing per game.
It’s been a half decade since his 2014 MVP season, when he led the league with a 9.5 AY/A. In the following years, he has fallen well short of that benchmark.
- 2015: 7.1 (t-18th)
- 2016: 8.1 (4th)
- 2017: 7.2 (15th)
- 2018: 8.1 (9th)
- 2019: 8.1 (9th)
In the post-Jordy Nelson era (since last year), Rodgers has just three 300-yard, three-touchdown games. That number ties him with Mitchell Trubisky and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and 11 other quarterbacks have more such performances.
In only three games this year has Rodgers been a fantasy QB1.
Rodgers is the No. 13 fantasy quarterback with 19.2 DraftKings points per game. He’s hit salary-based expectations in just 36.4% of games this year. It’s increasingly hard to argue that Rodgers is still elite.
But this week, he has an elite matchup against the Giants, who are No. 29 in PFF coverage grade. And that number probably undersells just how exploitable they are right now.
Week 3 was the last time that No. 1 cornerback Janoris Jenkins was used in shadow coverage. Since Week 4, he’s played almost exclusively at left corner. He’s no longer a shutdown defender.
Opposite Jenkins, the Giants are a mess. Rookie DeAndre Baker has the lowest PFF coverage grade of any starting corner. And now the team is starting to mix in injury-impacted 2018 third-round supplemental draft pick Sam Beal, who has 19 NFL coverage snaps to his name. Both guys are incredibly exploitable.
In the slot, the Giants started undrafted second-year corner Grant Haley for most of the season, but in Week 10, his 86.5% catch rate allowed was finally deemed unpalatable, and he was benched for sixth-round rookie third-string defensive back Corey Ballentine. As bad as Haley is, Ballentine is almost certainly worst. Last week, he gave up 188 yards and a touchdown on 12 receptions and 14 targets.
Against such defenders, Rodgers should be able to connect with wide receivers Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jake Kumerow.
In 11 games, the Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to rack up 20-plus DraftKings points nine times. The six quarterbacks to face the Giants with Rodgers-similar salaries have averaged 23.7 DraftKings points per game with a +5.56 Plus/Minus and 83.3% Consistency Rating.
With his matchup, Rodgers doesn’t need to be elite to have a top-three fantasy performance this weekend.
Rodgers is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high seven Pro Trends.
Upside Quarterbacks for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens ($7,000 DK, $8,700 FD): The 49ers defense is No. 1 in the league with 4.0 net yards allowed per pass attempt, but Jackson once again led all quarterbacks last week with 36.3 DraftKings points, and he’s in the middle of a triumphant MVP season.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8).
No NFL player has ever had 3,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in the same season, but Lamar is pacing for 3,530.2 and 1,274.2. He’s the No. 1 fantasy quarterback this year with 28.4 points on FanDuel, where he has a position-high ceiling projection this week.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals ($6,400 DK, $7,700 FD): The No. 1 overall pick has been a fantasy QB1 in seven of 11 games. Since the Cardinals moved wide receiver Christian Kirk to the perimeter in Week 9 and switched to a three-wide offense, Murray has averaged 26.8 DraftKings points, even though two of his games have been against the fearsome 49ers. The two quarterbacks most similar to Murray to face the Rams this year — Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson — have averaged 33.1 DraftKings points against them.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,300 DK, $7,600 FD): Winston has a league-worst 20 interceptions and a lowly 59.9% completion rate, but he leads the slate with 10.3 intended air yards and 1.2 yards beyond the first-down marker per attempt (per Next Gen Stats). After a rough first couple of starts, Winston has averaged 25.2 DraftKings points per game and been a fantasy QB1 in every week but one since Week 3. Since trading No. 1 cornerback Jalen Ramsey, the Jags are much less imposing against the pass, ranking No. 26 in PFF coverage grade this year.
Sam Darnold, New York Jets ($6,100 DK, $7,600 FD): For the second straight week, Darnold is coming off a season-best performance, and now he gets a great matchup against the Bengals, who are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA. Since “seeing ghosts” against the Patriots in Week 7, Darnold has averaged 21.1 FanDuel points per game. The Bengals are without No. 1 cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR) and have allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks with 22.1 per game.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,800 DK, $7,300 FD): Wentz (hand) is dealing with an injury, and over the past six weeks he’s averaged just 214.4 passing yards and one touchdown per game. Wide receivers Alshon Jeffery (ankle) and Nelson Agholor (knee) missed last week and are uncertain for Week 13. All of that sucks. But Wentz is facing the Dolphins, who are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA and starting undrafted backups Nik Needham, Ken Crawley and Jomal Wiltz at corner. The Dolphins have allowed the third-most FanDuel points to quarterbacks with 22.2 per game.
Nick Foles, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,700 DK, $7,500 FD): Since returning in Week 11, Foles hasn’t overwhelmed with his average of 284 passing yards and one touchdown per game, but he has a good matchup against the Buccaneers, who have allowed a league-high 494.2 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com). The Bucs have the league’s most extreme funnel defense, ranking No. 1 against the run but No. 25 against the pass in DVOA, and cornerbacks Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean are perhaps the league’s most inexperienced pass defense trio.
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,700 DK, $6,000 FD): The Red Rifle returns. The Bengals have evidently seen enough of backup Ryan Finley, so Dalton will start for the first time since Week 8. With Dalton back, there’s an outside chance that wide receiver A.J. Green (ankle, apathy) might suddenly be healthy enough to suit up. The Jets have a strong funnel defense that ranks No. 2 against the run but No. 17 against the pass in DVOA.
They are currently starting third-string cornerbacks Arthur Maulet and Blessuan Austin on the perimeter because Trumaine Johnson (ankle, IR) is out for the year, Darryl Roberts (calf) has missed the past three weeks and Nate Hairston has been benched. I almost hate to put this in writing: I am actually thinking about Dalton in cash games, especially on FanDuel, where he’s the slate’s cheapest quarterback. I probably won’t go there, but it’s in consideration.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15)
Photo credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
