As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players in the long term.
For the second week in a row, we had an “unstacked” lineup take down the $20 Millionaire Maker contest on DraftKings. The winner was “jmt0813” who broke most of the “rules” of DFS roster construction with their one lineup. Did they just get lucky, or has something changed to make this type of build more viable? Let’s try to figure that out below.
The Lineup
The Stack
As alluded to above, there wasn’t a traditional stack to speak of. This is the second week in a row that a “naked” quarterback took down first place, albeit in a very different manner.
First things first, it’s worth pointing out one obvious benefit of rostering quarterbacks without any pass catchers. That would be the ownership: while Josh Allen was fairly popular at 15%, the overwhelming majority of those lineups paired him with one of his receivers. Building around Allen by himself thus made Allen somewhat contrarian, which holds a lot of value in a massive contest like this.
Last week, Brock Purdy was the winning QB. Purdy made sense as a non-stacked QB due to his low price, and the wide distribution of targets on his team (as well as those players’ high prices). Allen fit neither of those criteria, as he was near the top of the salary scale and concentrates most of his passes to one player (Stefon Diggs).
He did fit the other criteria I pointed out in my Main Slate Breakdown — rushing upside. Naturally, I pointed out this angle for his opponent Jalen Hurts, but it was Allen who provided two rushing touchdowns in the obvious game of the day. Given that pairing him with Diggs would’ve eaten up a huge chunk of salary cap, it makes sense how this one worked out — at least with the benefit of hindsight.
Moving forward, this is another reminder that we don’t have to stack our quarterbacks, especially in huge contests. If they can score with their legs, or spread the ball among tons of receivers, they can get there on their own.
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The Chalk
Where to start? jmt0813 used three fairly popular running backs in this lineup, with all three checking in at 14.5% ownership or higher. I don’t have a ton to add here, but it’s becoming clear that the market has gotten efficient at projecting running backs. That means that the players who garner high ownership deserve it — and we should seek to get unique elsewhere.
I almost mentioned Nico Collins and Calvin Ridley in the stack section. Both receivers were fairly popular and playing in the same game. That obviously bakes in some correlation, since a shootout serves to benefit both wideouts. While this game finished with a moderate 45 points, both primary pass catchers had solid days.
The Sleepers
While this lineup was chalky in most positions, a few sleepers stood out. Let’s start with Rashee Rice, who came in at just 5% ownership. On the one hand, he largely hadn’t lived up to his Week 12 price tag. On the other hand, maybe we should always play the WR1 in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense if they project for low ownership.
Wisely, this lineup also went off the board at the two most high-variance positions — tight end and defense. At tight end, they used Pat Friermuth in his first game back from injury. DraftKings tends to gradually discount players when they miss time, making Friermuth a strong value on his return. Typically, if you wait to see that a player is full strength, it’s too late. It also makes way more sense to take a chance at a position like tight end, where even the “best” options are fairly risky.
Finally, almost nobody played Carolina at defense. They were overpriced as slight underdogs and scored just two points against the Titans. That doesn’t make them a bad play, though. With Titans running back Derrick Henry one of the chalkiest players, rostering a defense against him was a huge leverage play.
While it didn’t work out for the Panthers, looking at Friermuth and Carolina as a group, they 4xd their combined salary at very low ownership. Even in huge contests, we can typically get one spot wrong — so taking two swings and hoping to get one right is a valuable way to build unique lineups.
