As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players long term.
Each week in 2022, I’ll look at the winning lineup in DraftKings Millionaire Maker Contest with an eye for how the lucky winner arrived at the lineup that took it down. We’ll focus on the key lessons of the winning lineup — and maybe even some mistakes to avoid.
While a high degree of positive variance is necessary to win a contest of this size (the standard $20 contests have over 236,000 entrants, there’s still a large amount of skill involved to get to a position to benefit from that variance.
Here’s Week 12’s winner:
The Lineup
We have a solo ship! “Getsomesleep” took down the Milly Maker with a single bullet this week, finishing ahead of a 150-entry player by just 0.08 points. This was quite an interesting lineup, from which we’ll try to learn some lessons.
As always, information on every DFS contest is available with the FantasyLabs Contest Dashboard Tool. It’s an important resource to review what worked, what didn’t, and what the top pros are doing on a weekly basis.
The Stack(s)
The most interesting part of this lineup was the lack of a true quarterback and pass-catcher stack. Instead, Getsomesleep paired Kyler Murray with his running back, James Conner. While that’s not an unusual strategy with backs that catch more passes, Conner isn’t typically thought of as active in the passing game.
Conner did manage to secure all three of his targets for 20 yards and — crucially — a touchdown. Murray’s other passing touchdown went to the far more expensive and highly-owned DeAndre Hopkins. Thus, Getsomesleep was able to correlate a good chunk of Murray’s passing production with a pass catcher.
This pairing also meant Getsomesleep effectively secured all of the Cardinals’ scoring, a solid move given that this game had the slate’s highest total. While that strategy is generally reserved for smaller field tournaments and/or cash games, it worked out well here.
The other correlated pieces in this lineup were Zay Jones and Mark Andrews. The Ravens-Jaguars game ended up fairly high scoring, and this lineup captured the top receivers from both teams. That’s a solid strategy if you have an interest in a game but don’t want to roster either quarterback.
The Chalk
Shortly before kickoff, it was reported that Trevor Siemian was injured during warmups, and the Bears would be starting Nathan Peterman. That would be a third-string quarterback starting behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. Ironically, that report turned out to be false, and Siemian ended up playing.
Still, he’s a backup quarterback behind a bad offensive line facing an aggressive defense, making the Jets ($3,300) a strong play. With Kansas City ($2,800) expected to be ultra-chalky, pivoting to New York made a lot of sense. Both teams ended up at eight DraftKings points, but the reduction in ownership could be worth the extra $500.
Of course, other cheaper and/or lesser-owned defenses ended up with superior scores. Miami ($3,900) came in at just 4.6% ownership and scored 18 points, while Carolina ($3,00) scored nine points at 4.9%. While it worked out for Getsomesleep, it’s almost always better to go off the board a bit at defense.
Beyond defense, Garret Wilson and Treylon Burks were both fairly popular but not quite “chalk.” Both were projecting as excellent value plays, which is likely how they ended up in this lineup.
The Sleepers
Of course, the most important part of this lineup was the inclusion of Josh Jacobs. This game set up fairly well for Jacobs, but he ended up overlooked by the field. That was due to a ton of value opening up with cheaper running backs. Jeff Wilson Jr., Rachaad White, Samajae Perine, Latavious Murray, and Michael Carter all projected for near-workhorse roles under $6,000.
Jacobs was priced up for a reason, though, with an excellent role and a great offensive line matchup. I’d strongly suggest keeping an eye on the weekly line matchup column here at FantasyLabs, as it’s done a very good job identifying strong running back spots this season.
Outside of Jacobs and the players already mentioned, Getsomesleep also used Chris Godwin at reasonably low ownership. Godwin had strong projections, but with most lineups using cheaper backs and more expensive receivers, he was slightly lost in the shuffle. Godwin has drawn double-digit targets in six of eight games this season and should be in weekly consideration.
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