NFL DFS Week 12 Main Slate Picks Breakdown: Buy Low on Mark Andrews

NFL Week 12 features an 11-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud

Tua Tagovailoa has had an easy schedule recently, and he’s taken full advantage. He’s thrown for at least 285 yards and three touchdowns in three straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all three contests. He’s increased his season-long average to 20.4 fantasy points per game, which ranks seventh at the QB position.

Tua draws another elite matchup this week vs. the Texans. They rank 29th in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, and they’re 25th in DVOA against the pass. The Dolphins are currently implied for 30.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate by nearly two full points. Not only that, but it’s also easily the top mark of Tagovailoa’s career. His previous career high was just 27.75 points, which came against the Lions back in Week 8.

The only issue with Tua is that the Dolphins might not necessarily need to throw the ball that much in this contest. They’re currently listed as 14-point favorites, and the Texans’ defense has been even worse against the run than the pass. The Dolphins rank seventh in pass rate over expectation, but they might lean on the run a bit more than usual this week.

Value

Geno Smith continues to put together a fabulous season for the Seahawks. He leads the league with a 72.8% completion percentage, and he’s racked up 8.3 adjusted yards per attempt. He also ranks fifth at the position in Pro Football Focus grade, and he has the Seahawks sitting at 6-4 and with a chance to qualify for the playoffs. Never in a million years would I have thought Smith would outplay his predecessor Russell Wilson this season, but that’s been the case.

Geno has also delivered steady production for fantasy players. He’s scored at least 20.2 DraftKings points in five of his past eight games, and he draws one of the best possible matchups this week vs. the Raiders. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, and Smith’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.3 ranks third at the position. This game also has the second-highest total of the week at 47.5 points, while the Seahawks are listed as just four-point home favorites. That suggests a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair, which are the best types of games to target in fantasy.

Finally, Smith stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings. His 56% Bargain Rating doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s tied for the fourth-best mark at quarterback.

Quick Hits

Things are looking up for Kyler Murray. He’ll return to the lineup after missing the previous two games, and he’s also expected to have DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown available in the same game for the first time all season. His matchup vs. the Chargers isn’t ideal, but this game has the highest total of the day at 48.5 points.

Lamar Jackson has not looked like himself recently, racking up 17.52 FanDuel points or fewer in six of his past seven games. That’s caused his salary to decrease to just $8,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%. That has historically been too cheap for Jackson, who has posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.12 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool). The Jaguars are also an elite matchup, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA, so this is a fantastic buy-low spot.

Justin Herbert put together his best game in weeks in Week 11, racking up 20.2 FanDuel points vs. the Chiefs. Part of that was due to getting Keenan Allen back in the lineup, and he draws another solid matchup this week vs. the Cardinals. He’s another player who’s too cheap on FanDuel, with his $7,900 salary resulting in a Bargain Rating of 76%.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud

Josh Jacobs continues to put together a career year for the Raiders. He’s averaged a career-best 5.1 yards per carry and 93.0 rushing yards per game, and he’s also scored seven touchdowns. He’s also taken on a larger role in the receiving game, which is something that has historically held him back for fantasy purposes. He dominated the workload for the Raiders in Week 11, racking up 80% of the snaps and 96% of the rushing attempts against the Broncos. Jacobs finished with a positive Plus/Minus for the sixth time in his past eight games on DraftKings, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.87 over his past 10 contests.

Jacobs was a late addition to the injury report this week, and he’s officially questionable vs. the Seahawks. That said, he’s a strong option if he’s able to suit up. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the top mark at the position, and his $7,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. The Seahawks are also a solid matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.7.

Value

It’s another week with an abundance of value options at the position. Out of the five options with the best DraftKings projected Plus/Minus in THE BLITZ, four of them are priced below $6,000.

However, it’s hard to argue against Jeff Wilson Jr. for the top spot at the position. Everything is in his favor this week. He took over in the Dolphins’ backfield in their last game, leading the team with a 61% snap share and 52% of the team’s rushing attempts. Raheem Mostert fell to just 28% and 24%, and he’s been downgraded to doubtful for Week 12. That means Wilson should take on an even larger workload this week.

Wilson also draws one of the best possible matchups against the Texans. Their defense has been abused by opposing running backs all season, giving Wilson an elite +7.1 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Wilson racked up 17 carries, 119 yards, and one touchdown in his last outing, and it’s easy to imagine him duplicating those numbers this week. He is way too cheap at $5,900, making him a lock-and-load option for cash games.

Quick Hits

Latavius Murray, Rachaad White, and Samaje Perine are also popping as sub-$6k options in our NFL Models, but Murray is my favorite of the three. White could lose some passing game work with Giovani Bernard back in the lineup, while Perine has a tough matchup vs. the Titans. However, Murray has very little competition for snaps – Marlon Mack is the only other running back on the Broncos’ roster – and the Panthers are just 21st in rush defense DVOA.

Kenneth Walker is slightly more expensive than the true value runners on this slate, but he’s also way more talented. He’s ripped off more than 100 yards and two touchdowns in two of his past four games, and his elite speed makes him a threat for a big play every time he touches the ball. The Raiders haven’t been quite as bad against the run as they have been against the pass, but they still rank just 22nd in rush defense DVOA.

Paying up for Derrick Henry is always a viable strategy, especially when he’s not expected to carry much ownership. He’s carried a monster workload once again this season, leading the league in carries and rushing yards per game. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight outings, and he’s gone for at least 25.3 DraftKings points in six of them. The Bengals have a decent defense, but they’re going to need to be better than decent to slow down the Big Dog.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud

It’s hard to have a much better season at receiver than what Tyreek Hill has done in his first year with the Dolphins. He leads the league with an average of 114.8 receiving yards per game, which puts him on pace for nearly 2,000 yards. He wasn’t really needed in his last game, finishing with just five catches for 44 yards, but he did manage to find the end zone for the fourth time this season. Overall, Hill has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.23 over his past 10 games.

Even with subpar numbers in his last matchup, Hill still boasts one of the top workloads at the position. His 30.9% target market share ranks fifth among all receivers, and he’s been targeted on 33.8% of his routes run. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb have been targeted more frequently among high-volume receivers. Of course, Hill also remains very capable of getting open downfield, and he ranks seventh in the league in air yards market share.

The same blowout concerns that exist for Tua also exist for Hill, but pairing both players should be a popular strategy this week.

Value

Treylon Burks is coming off the first 100-yard game of his career in his last outing, and he continues to serve as the focal point of the Titans’ passing attack. The first-round rookie from Arkansas has played in just six games this season, but he’s been targeted on at least 30% of his routes run in three of them. That’s an elite mark, especially for someone who costs just $4,200.

Burks was targeted on 38% of his routes run last week, and he had a 30% target share overall. He also racked up 37% of the team’s air yards, so his underlying metrics are extremely positive. He’s still not playing on a ton of snaps – he had just a 68% route participation in Week 11 – but that’s not a huge factor if you’re demanding the ball at a high rate when you’re on the field.

The Titans are not known for their passing attack, but they might be forced to throw the ball a bit more than usual this week. The Bengals have the potential to put points on the board quickly, so the Titans might have to throw the ball to keep up.

Quick Hits

Keenan Allen can be considered both a stud and a value this week. He’s priced at just $6,100 on DraftKings, and he’s going to serve as the Chargers’ unquestioned top receiver with Mike Williams sidelined. He didn’t see a full complement of snaps in his first game back, but he still finished with eight targets, five receptions, and 94 yards. He should pick up a few additional snaps and routes in Week 12, making him a solid bet to return value.

The Jets’ receivers are a major question mark this week. On one hand, they have an elite matchup vs. the Bears, who have surrendered an average of 35.5 points over their past four games. On the hand, they’ll be catching passes from Mike White, who might be even worse than Zach Wilson. Still, Garrett Wilson has been priced down to one of his lowest salaries of the season, and he’s grading out well in THE BLITZ. He could be worth a flyer.

The Broncos’ aerial attack has been a disaster all year, but Courtland Sutton should continue to benefit from the team’s injuries. Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler have both been ruled out vs. the Panthers, leaving Sutton as the team’s clear top option.

DeAndre Hopkins is another potential stud option at the position. He’s seen at least 12 targets in four of his five games, and while he may lose a few opportunities to Marquise Brown, he still figures to command one of the largest workloads in football. Getting back Murray should also help his output.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud

Mark Andrews was able to return to the Ravens’ lineup last week, and he stepped right back into his usual workload. He racked up eight targets, six catches, and 63 yards, even though Jackson didn’t have a particularly good game. Andrews still leads all tight ends in target and air yards share, and only Travis Kelce has averaged more expected DraftKings points per game (per PFF).

Andrews’ price has also come down from a high of $7,400 to just $6,500 in Week 12. He has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.93 with a comparable salary, and that figure increases to +5.97 over the past two years. The Jaguars rank dead last in DVOA vs. opposing tight ends this season, so this is the perfect time to buy low on a talented player.

Value

Foster Moreau will continue to serve as the Raiders’ starting tight end for as long as Darren Waller is on IR. Moreau caught just one pass in his last game, but he has a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past five games.

He’s another player with an excellent matchup this week. Seattle ranks just 29th in DVOA vs. opposing tight ends, and Moreau owns an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.3 on DraftKings. His $3,400 salary also comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, so he’s another outstanding value to consider for your lineups.

Quick Hits

Andrews still stands out as the top tight end on FanDuel, but paying up for Kelce is also viable. His $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%, and no one at the position can match his upside. Kelce doesn’t see quite as many targets as you might think, but he makes up for it with elite touchdown upside. The Chiefs are also going to be missing Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney this week, so he might have a bit more upside than usual between the 20s.

Gerald Everett missed the Chargers’ last game, but he was officially removed from the injury report and will return to the lineup in Week 12. He’s been a reliable option for the Chargers all season, and he should continue to serve as an important part of their lineup with Williams sidelined.

Roster Construction

This seems like a strong week for a balanced lineup. Not only are we missing some of the usual top end talent – the Bills, Cowboys, Vikings, and Eagles are not available on the main slate – but there are plenty of strong values in the midrange. The current optimal DraftKings lineup per THE BLITZ doesn’t feature a single player priced above $6,900.

I’m starting my lineups this week with Andrews at tight end. One of the benefits of a balanced lineup is the ability to pay up at tight end, and Andrews is a smash play at $6,500 vs. the Jaguars. The next man in is Allen, who is underpriced at $6,100 as the Chargers’ top receiver. Wilson is the clear top choice at running back this week, so he’s another easy selection.

After that, you can go in a few different directions to round out your roster. Personally, I would recommend using at least one of the value receivers. My preference is Burks, but THE BLITZ has Wilson as a slightly better per-dollar option. You can also use both of them, which would allow you to get up to someone like Alvin Kamara or Jacobs at running back.

Personally, I’d rather use someone like D.K. Metcalf or Sutton as my WR2. That still leaves more than enough salary cap for two solid running back values and Geno at quarterback.

On FanDuel, the biggest difference is that I’m paying up for Jackson at quarterback. I like having a top quarterback in cash games as long as it doesn’t hurt the rest of your lineup too badly, and you can still build a solid squad around Jackson. Wilson, Murray, and White stand out as easy choices for your two running back spots and flex, and that leaves plenty of salary cap space for your pass-catchers.

As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.

Make sure to also take advantage of all the excellent written content that will be produced prior to kickoff.

Good luck this week!