Even with six teams on a bye this week, the NFL has a solid 10-game main slate lined up for Sunday afternoon. There are some very important and intriguing matchups as teams try to keep their postseason hopes alive. Seven of the 10 games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET, with three games once again in the later window. Last week’s huge matchup between the Bills and Chiefs lived up to the hype, and this week, the spotlight matchup is another great one between the Packers and the 49ers at Lambeau Field.
The highest over/under on Sunday’s slate is from the Lions visiting the Colts in the late wave, and the Lions have the highest implied team total after their dominant showings the last few weeks. Other teams with big totals to target include the Commanders, Chiefs, and Dolphins. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 12. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Geno Smith ($5,700) Seattle Seahawks (-1) vs. Arizona Cardinals (47.5 total)
After his heroic game-winning touchdown run last week on the road vs. the 49ers, Geno Smith has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks this week, using an evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Raybon, and THE BLITZ. He has the top spot in Projected Plus/Minus in Koerner’s projections while ranking third in the other two sets of projections.
Smith has been solid this season for the Seahawks, with over 16 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. He finished last week’s win with 221 passing yards and one interception, but he saved his fantasy day with a 16-yard touchdown run that also gave the Seahawks the win.
In his last game before the bye week in Week 10, Smith posted a season-high 28.1 DraftKings points with 363 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Rams.
He and the Seahawks offense have been solid at home with the exception of their blowout loss to the Bills, and they’ll look to get another big division win on Sunday. This week’s matchup with the division-leading Cardinals will go a long way to determining how the West will be won. The Cardinals’ defense looked great before their bye week but that was against the Bears and Jets. Before that, they gave up 11 passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in eight games.
For most of the season, Smith has been a good value play, and with DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both healthy and productive, he has solid options to work with at this bargain salary.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Courtland Sutton ($5,900) Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (41 total)
The Broncos have become a very fun offense under QB Bo Nix ($6,300) and coach Sean Payton. Sutton has been the go-to receiver all season, and this week, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the aggregate projections.
Sutton had a weird no-catch, no-targets game against the Saints in the Broncos’ 33-10 rout in New Orleans a few weeks ago, but other than that, he has out-performed salary-based expectations in each of his last six games. He has at least six catches and at least eight targets in each of his four games since that letdown, averaging 20.3 DraftKings points per week.
He had two 100-yard games during that span against the Panthers and Ravens and posted seven catches for 78 yards and 14.8 DraftKings points last week in a comfortable 38-6 win over the Falcons.
This week, Sutton gets a favorable matchup against the Raiders. Opposing wide receivers have scored a touchdown against Vegas in three straight contests and have at least nine catches in each of the last four games.
Sutton’s consistent recent target share should help him have a much better game this time around than in Week 5 when he had only two catches for 32 yards against Vegas. The projections like him to put together a strong road game this week and be a great value play at the position.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
De’Von Achane ($7,500) Miami Dolphins (-7) vs. New England Patriots (46 total)
The Dolphins are in a good spot at home against the Patriots, and even though Achane isn’t a cheap play, he does project to bring excellent value in this AFC East divisional matchup. He has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings even as the third-highest salaried running back and is projected to bring the most Pts/Sal of any running back on the slate and have the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate.
Achane has found the end zone four times in the four games since Tua Tagovailoa ($5,800) returned at QB. He has averaged 22.4 DraftKings points per game over those four games and posted over 100 yards rushing plus receiving in three of those four contests.
Not only does he bring a very high ceiling with big-play ability every time he touches the ball, but he also is a relatively safe play since he is so involved as a pass-catcher. He has at least four receptions in every game with Tua at QB and has averaged 6.2 catches per game in those six contests.
Achane didn’t get much going in Week 5 against New England without Tua, but he should fare much better this time around. Opposing running backs have scored 11 touchdowns in 11 games against New England while averaging 116.6 rushing yards and 25.8 receiving yards per game.
In another important development to track this week, Raheem Mostert ($5,000) was limited by a hip injury last week and only had three carries. He didn’t have any carries the week before and definitely seems to have fallen behind Achane on the depth chart since the earlier meeting with the Patriots.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Hunter Henry ($4,000) New England Patriots (+7) at Miami Dolphins (16 total)
On the other side of that matchup, Henry has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends this week in the aggregate, behind only Travis Kelce ($5,800) against the Panthers. Henry has become a go-to pass-catching option in New England since Drake Maye ($5,500) took over at QB.
He was in my early look values last week as well and bounced back from a down game in Chicago with six catches for 63 yards on nine targets against the Rams. He has averaged 7.2 targets per game over his last five games, with at least five catches in four of those games. Even though he hasn’t scored many touchdowns, his target volume makes him a very low-risk play.
He scored his only touchdown of the season in Week 6 against the Texans, and he has produced at least 9.0 DraftKings points in five of his six games since then.
The Dolphins have been a slightly favorable matchup for tight ends this season, and Brock Bowers ($6,300) had a massive 34.3 DraftKings points against them last week. Even though Henry probably doesn’t have that kind of ceiling, he should be a very solid value with good upside at only $4,000 this week.
