As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players long term.
The winner of the Week 11 Millionaire Maker was crclngthdrn, who got there with just six lineups. We’ll take a look at some of their other rosters as well to see if there was a thought process that led to the million-dollar takedown.
The Lineup
The Stack
I mentioned Jared Goff as one of my SimLabs Building Blocks for Week 11, with the thesis that he would get some extra reps following a bad Week 10 performance. That turned out to be the case, with Goff throwing four touchdown passes despite sitting out most of the fourth quarter.
In retrospect, using Goff in a double stack with his two top targets was extremely prescient by crclngthdrn. Goff doesn’t produce much with his legs, so to put up a GPP-winning score at $6,300, he needed plenty of passing production.
With Sam LaPorta out, that meant Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams would account for a huge chunk of his productivity. They combined for 285 yards and three touchdowns, or about 70% of Goff’s output.
Keep that in mind with the Lions until LaPorta returns, as we could see another big game concentrated on these two. It’s worth noting that among crclngthdrn’s six lineups, two had this stack, and two had David Montgomery. That was a clear bet on the team with the slate’s highest total getting it done one way or the other.
Other Correlations
crclngthdrn also included the pairing of De’Von Achane and the Dolphins defense, which could potentially be considered a stack. Given that they don’t directly score points together, I count it as more of a correlation play.
The running back + team defense combination is a classic, even though the correlation is less than that of a running back and any opposing offensive player. To that point, this lineup binked in spite of that pairing, not because of it, as the Dolphins pieces were two of the lower-scoring (price-considered) options in the lineup.
They had other Achane lineups with different defenses though, so I’m not sure if the D/ST stack was a conscious pairing or just the best available defense that fit. Maybe the bigger lesson here is that you can bink a massive contest while only getting six points from a defense.
The Chalk
Remarkably, Achane and the Dolphins defense were the only pieces in this lineup to see double-digit ownership. Outside of that, 9% Audric Estime was the most popular player included.
It’s interesting that the three most popular pieces in the stack were the only ones not to earn the sought-after flame emoji in DraftKings scoring. I don’t want to draw too many conclusions from that, as there are plenty of weeks when the chalk hits.
Still, at the very least, it was a bad week for chalk plays, with the three most popular players on the slate all falling short of 3xing their salaries.
The Sleepers
Here’s where it gets fun. I’m going to skip over Breece Hall, as he was the 10-most popular running back on a slate with fairly spread-out ownership. He hit massively, but crclngthdrn had fairly even exposure to a handful of backs on the slate.
Taysom Hill was the key to his lineup, with a ridiculous 46.52 DraftKings score on the strength of three rushing touchdowns. That was good for 10x of his Week 11 salary. Hill is such a unique player given his tight end eligibility. There’s not really a great way to tell when he’ll have his big games, but we know they’re going to happen every so often. Given the difficulty finding ceiling at tight end, he’s probably worth some exposure any time he’s on the main slate.
The other sneaky play here was Kendrick Bourne. He was a healthy scratch in Week 10 but reportedly had a good week of practice leading up to Week 11. It’s hard to parse coach speak, but this was the right week to take a shot on a near-minimum player with little ownership.
When there are fewer strong plays you’re potentially missing out on, the opportunity cost is much lower. We’ll hear buzz about other players stepping up from their coaches this year — some of that will be real, and some won’t. It’s nearly impossible to tell, but it is possible to consider the overall landscape of the slate when making decisions.
