The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Titans at Colts
The Colts are three-point favorites for their Week 11 matchup against the Titans. They are currently implied to score 27.5 points – the fourth-highest mark of Week 11. Marcus Mariota and company are currently implied to score 24.5 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field this Sunday afternoon.
Tennessee Titans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Marcus Mariota
Mariota has been on fire as of late. The Titans have called the fourth-fewest passing plays in the league this season, but he’s overcome this with fantastic efficiency:
Per playerprofiler.com, Mariota has been among the top-eight quarterbacks in the league in several of the top efficiency statistics. Overall, he’s thrown for three-plus touchdowns in four of his last six games. Mariota is priced at $6,700 on DraftKings with a +2.62 Projected Plus/Minus and has two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. He has a great matchup against a Colts defense that has allowed the fourth-most average fantasy points to QBs this season, per fantasydata.com.
RB – DeMarco Murray
Murray has been arguably the most consistent running back in fantasy this season. He’s averaging a strong +7.37 Plus/Minus and has exceeded his salary-based expectations in all but one game through 10 weeks:
Murray has been consistently excellent this season. He’ll look to keep this excellence going against a Colts defense that has been torn apart by great running backs this season:
Per our Trends tool, running backs priced over $5,000 on DraftKings have balled out against the Colts. The only back to not exceed their salary-based expectation is Spencer Ware, and that was due to him suffering a concussion and not being able to finish the game. Murray is priced at $8,500 on FD with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has nine Pro Trends.
RB – Derrick Henry
Henry was able to suit up last week despite missing the previous game with a calf injury. He managed to rack up nine rush attempts during the Titans’ blowout win over the Packers. While Henry’s touches have increased over his past two games, it’s mostly been a result of the Titans jumping out to big leads over the Jaguars and Packers. He’s priced at $5,300 on DK and has a -3.8 Projected Plus/Minus – tied for the fourth-worst mark among all running backs this week.
WR – Rishard Matthews
Matthews has now scored six touchdowns in his last six games and has emerged as Mariota’s deep threat. His 14.6 aDOT is the highest on the team (per PFF) and he’s benefited from Mariota’s top-10 marks in both deep-ball attempts and completion percentage. Keep in mind that Matthews has had more than five targets just once in his last six games, but he’s clearly unseated Tajae Sharpe as the No. 1 wide receiver on the Titans. Matthews is priced at $6,000 on FD with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and could see a lot of Vontae Davis, PFF’s 57th-highest graded cornerback in coverage this season.
WR – Tajae Sharpe
Sharpe scored the first touchdown of his career last week, but this doesn’t change the fact that he’s averaging just 6.6 yards and 1.29 fantasy points per target – marks that rank outside of the top-80 among all WRs. Sharpe should be considered as nothing more than a GPP punt play on DK, where his $3,200 price tag comes with an 87 percent Bargain Rating and a +2.66 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Kendall Wright
Wright scored another touchdown last week but has now had less than six targets in four consecutive games. He’s simply not involved enough in the offense to warrant fantasy consideration and his salary has also increased by $500 on DK over the past month. Wright is priced at $4,200 on DK and his 1.2-point projected floor is the second-lowest mark among all WRs priced over $4,000 on DK.
TE – Delanie Walker
Walker converted a season-high 11 targets into a 9-124-1 line last week and his average of 14.71 DK points per game now ranks third among all tight ends this season. Don’t expect him to slow down this week, as he finds himself in a matchup that he’s historically thrived in:
As our Trends tool shows, Walker has posted a +6.2 Plus/Minus with 73.7 percent Consistency and has averaged 14.7 DK points in his 19 games as a road underdog over the past three seasons. He’s priced at $6,400 on FD with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and faces a Colts defense that has allowed 2.9 points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months.
Indianapolis Colts
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Andrew Luck
Luck has been pretty great wherever he’s played throughout his career, but he’s been especially great inside Lucas Oil Stadium when he’s been favored:
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a +4.2 Plus/Minus with 69.2 percent Consistency and has averaged 24.65 DK points in his 13 games as a home favorite over the past three seasons. While Luck’s performance isn’t an issue, his offensive line’s is. Playerprofiler.com has graded the Colts’ offensive line as the second-worst pass-blocking unit in the league. They’ll be challenged this week by a Titans defensive line that has three interior defenders graded among the top-21 at their position, per PFF. Luck is priced at $8,100 on FD with a 75 percent Bargain Rating and has a 29.1-point projected ceiling.
RB – Frank Gore
Gore has surpassed most people’s expectations this season, but he’s racked up his yards the way most would expect a 33-year-old running back to: slowly. Just 2.8 percent of his runs have gone for 15-plus yards this season, a mark that ranks 60th among all running backs. Still, he’s gotten the job done over the past three seasons in games with a similar implied total:
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a +2.84 Plus/Minus with 57.1 percent Consistency and has averaged 12.29 DK points in his seven games with a similar implied total. Gore is priced at $6,300 on FD with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and has eight Pro Trends. He does have a tough matchup against a Titans defense that is just one of nine teams to allow less than six rushing touchdowns this season.
RB – Robert Turbin
Turbin has had more than five touches in a game once this season and shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option unless Gore is forced to miss some time.
WR – T.Y. Hilton
Hilton, like his quarterback, has thrived in recent years as a home favorite:
He’s posted a +3.92 Plus/Minus with 52.9 percent Consistency and has averaged 18.35 DK points in his 17 games as a home favorite over the past three seasons. Still, he’ll need to overcome his recent poor play when Donte Moncrief has been able to suit up. Hilton has been targeted six and eight times over the past two weeks – his two lowest target totals of the season. Additionally, he hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last nine games with Moncrief on the field. Hilton will look to break out of his Moncrief-induced slump against a Titans secondary that has allowed 38 passes of 20-plus yards through 10 weeks – tied for the third-most in the league. He’s priced at $7,900 on FD with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.15 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Donte Moncrief
Moncrief has played only four games this season, yet he’s already been targeted twice as often as Hilton inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. He’s made good use of his fantasy-friendly opportunities, as he’s converted three of his four targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns. Moncrief is the undisputed No. 2 wide receiver on the league’s sixth-most pass-happy offense and is the featured red-zone target for Luck. He’s priced at $6,500 on FD with a 94 percent Bargain Rating, although his 17-20 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is tied for the fourth-highest mark among all wide receivers.
WR – Phillip Dorsett
Dorsett has one receiving touchdown this season and hasn’t surpassed 35 receiving yards since Week 4. He’s been targeted more than five times in a game only once this season, which wouldn’t be a concern if he wasn’t averaging just 1.65 fantasy points per target – the 47th-highest mark among all wide receivers. Dorsett is priced at $3,300 on DK and his 0.2-point projected floor is tied for the fourth-lowest mark among all non-minimum priced receivers.
TE – Jack Doyle and Dwayne Allen
Allen returned from his ankle injury in Week 9 and was targeted just twice. This could be a sign that Doyle will be the team’s lead tight end, as he received nine targets in the game. Doyle has been the more efficient receiver this season, as his average of 2.18 fantasy points per target ranks eighth among all TEs through 10 weeks. Still, the upside of both TEs is limited when they’re both healthy, as neither was targeted more than six times in a game during the first six weeks of the season. Doyle is the better bargain on FD this week, where his $5,000 price tag comes with an 83 percent Bargain Rating.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
