The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Jaguars at Lions
The Lions are 6.5-point favorites for their Week 11 matchup against the Jaguars. The Lions are currently implied to score 26.75 points, while the Jaguars are implied to score just 20.25 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field this Sunday afternoon.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Blake Bortles
Bortles is the king of garbage time, so it would make sense if he’s thrived in games in which the Jaguars have been six-plus point underdogs:
As our Trends tool shows, this hasn’t actually been the case. Bortles has posted a +1.49 Plus/Minus with 53.8 percent Consistency and has averaged just 14.54 DraftKings points in his 13 games as a six-plus point underdog over the past three seasons. For reference, an average of 14.54 DK points would rank Bortles as the 27th-highest scoring quarterback this season. While Bortles does have a good matchup against a Lions defense that is ranked last in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), the Lions haven’t given up more than 20 points in three consecutive games. He’s priced at $5,400 on DK with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and has five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
RB – Chris Ivory
Ivory followed up his season-high 18-carry performance in Week 9 with nine carries last week. He’s averaging a career-low four yards per carry this season and will continue to be a volume-dependent back as long as T.J. Yeldon is the team’s passing-down back. There isn’t much reason to believe Ivory can become a significant fantasy factor with fewer than 15 carries per game, as he’s failed to replicate the great tackle-breaking ability he demonstrated last season. His average of 5.3 evaded tackles per game was the fifth-highest mark among all running backs last season, but this season he’s averaged just 2.3 evaded tackles per game – the 41st-highest mark among all RBs. Ivory is priced at $3,600 on DK with a 67 percent Bargain Rating and has a -0.18 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – T.J. Yeldon
Yeldon has 25-plus receiving yards in three straight games, although he’s had fewer than 10 carries in five straight games. His role as the team’s receiving back does set up nicely this week in a game that could feature the Jaguars trailing:
As our Trends tool shows, similarly-priced backs with a receiving presence have played well as an underdog. They’ve posted a +2.58 Plus/Minus with 55.6 percent Consistency and have averaged 9.59 DK points in the 54 occurrences over the past three seasons. Neither RB should be considered a cash-game option, but Yeldon’s cheap $3,500 salary on DK warrants GPP consideration.
WR – Allen Robinson
Robinson has had 12-plus targets in three consecutive games and has finally started to look like the beast he was last season. He’s surpassed 75 receiving yards and scored a touchdown in consecutive games. Despite the solid numbers, Robinson hasn’t exactly fixed his efficiency problem. He’s averaged just 6.5 yards per target during this hot streak, a mark that ranks just 75th among all wide receivers during the span. Robinson won’t have an easy time fixing this issue against Darius Slay, PFF’s ninth-highest graded cornerback this season. Exposure to Robinson should be focused on FD, where his $7,300 price tag comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and seven Pro Trends.
WR – Allen Hurns
While Robinson has thrived in recent weeks, his success has come at the expense of Hurns’. Hurns has been targeted 11 times over the past two weeks and has two receptions for 13 yards and zero touchdowns to show for it. Hurns will still have ample opportunity to produce on the league’s second-most pass-happy offense, but he’ll need to improve his average of 1.35 fantasy points per target – a mark that ranks 77th among all WRs. He’s priced at $4,100 on DK. Hurns is an intriguing GPP play as his salary has dropped by $900 over the past month and his FantasyLabs projected ownership sits at just two to four percent.
WR – Marqise Lee
Lee has emerged as a viable No. 3 receiver this season, but his fantasy upside will continue to be limited by his lack of touchdown opportunities. He’s been targeted just once inside the 10-yard line this season and hasn’t found the end zone through 10 weeks. Lee does have a good matchup against a Lions defense that ranks dead-last in DVOA against non-No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers. He’s priced at $4,800 on FD with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and has a +2.3 Projected Plus/Minus.
TE – Julius Thomas
Thomas hasn’t surpassed 30 receiving yards since Week 2, but his increased red-zone involvement has led to him scoring a touchdown in three of his last four games. He has a great matchup this week against a Lions defense that is the fifth-worst in the league in DVOA against tight ends. Through 10 weeks, this has translated to a good amount of fantasy success:
As our Trends tool shows, tight ends of any price have posted a +4.41 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and have averaged 9.53 DK points against the Lions this season. Thomas is priced at $3,500 on DK with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
Detroit Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
Stafford’s case for MVP has been built around his late-game comebacks, not his complete-game performances. He hasn’t surpassed 270 passing yards in six straight weeks and his 7.2 aDOT is lower than (brace yourself) Alex Smith‘s. Overall, his average of 20.17 DraftKings points ranks 11th among all quarterbacks this season. It’s not like this is bad, but keep in mind Stafford hasn’t been the world-beater the media has made him out to be at times. This week, he has a tough matchup against a Jaguars defense that has allowed an average of just 6.2 yards per attempt – the second-best mark in the league behind only Denver’s. Stafford is priced at $6,600 on DK and his nine to 12 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is tied for the second-highest mark among all QBs.
RB – Theo Riddick
Riddick injured his ankle during the Lions’ Week 9 win over the Vikings, but he’s expected to be good to go for Sunday. He’s emerged as the Lions’ featured back this season, as he has 10-plus carries in six straight games. Riddick has made good use of his extra opportunities, as his average of 1.01 fantasy points per opportunity ranks 10th among all running backs this season. He’s priced at $6,700 on FD with 10 Pro Trends and has a +4.81 Projected Plus/Minus.
Riddick (ankle) is officially questionable but expected fully to play.
RB – Dwayne Washington
Washington had 10 carries in Week 9 but is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season and offers zero upside as a receiving threat. While his status as the team’s goal-line back is a positive, the Lions are averaging the seventh-fewest red-zone scoring attempts per game, per teamrankings.com. Washington is priced at $3,500 on DK and is not a recommended fantasy option this week.
WR – Golden Tate
Tate has emerged as the Lions’ No. 1 receiver, as he’s had nine-plus targets in four consecutive games. He’s also gotten a few carries, which isn’t surprising considering his elite ability to make plays with the ball in his hands. Tate’s average of 5.0 yards after the catch per target ranks first among all WRs this season. He does have a tough matchup against rookie Jalen Ramsey, who is fresh off of holding DeAndre Hopkins to 48 yards on 13 targets. Tate is priced at $5,300 on DK with five Pro Trends and has a +5.45 Projected Plus/Minus – the highest mark among all wide receivers this week.
WR – Marvin Jones
Jones has struggled to make much of anything happen since his 200-yard performance in Week 3:
As our Trends tool shows, Jones has posted a -5.45 Plus/Minus with zero percent Consistency and has averaged just 9.43 DK points in his past six games. He’s expected to avoid Ramsey, although Prince Amukamara has had a solid season himself: PFF has graded him as the 19th-best cornerback in the league through 10 weeks. Jones is priced at $5,000 on DK with five Pro Trends and has a 3.2-point projected floor.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Boldin has scored three touchdowns in his last four games but hasn’t had more than five targets in a game since Week 6. His large frame makes him a nice option close to the goal line, but there’s simply not much upside left in the 36-year-old receiver: He’s surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game just once this season. Boldin is priced at $5,200 on FD and faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed 1.6 points above salary-based expectations to WRs over the past 12 months.
TE – Eric Ebron
Ebron is averaging nine targets per game since returning from his knee injury, but the majority of those targets haven’t come close to the goal line. He’s been targeted inside the red zone just four times this season and his 15 percent red-zone target share ranks just 25th among all tight ends. Ebron also hasn’t managed to stretch the field with his targets, as his average of 8.9 yards per target ranks just 28th among all TEs through 10 weeks. He’s priced at $5,400 on FD with an 89 percent Bargain Rating and has a tough matchup against a Jaguars defense that has allowed just 0.7 points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
