The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Bears at Giants
The Giants will host the Bears as seven-point favorites for their Week 11 matchup. The Bears are implied to score just 19.25 points, while the Giants are implied to score 26.25 points. The sub-50 degree temperatures in New York will make for perfect football weather. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field this Sunday afternoon.
Chicago Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Jay Cutler
Cutler threw only 30 passes during the Bears’ Week 10 loss to the Buccaneers. He’s now thrown fewer than 40 pass attempts in 12 straight games. Even when Cutler has been asked to throw the ball, he’s struggled to make much of anything happen. Per PFF, he’s averaged 0.31 fantasy points per dropback – the third-worst mark among all quarterbacks this season. Things won’t be any easier this week, as Cutler faces a Giants defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks through 10 weeks, per fantasydata.com. He’s priced at $5,200 on DraftKings with a 76 percent Bargain Rating and is the fifth-lowest rated QB in our Cash Model.
RB – Jordan Howard
After last week’s game, coach John Fox told the media that he believed Howard may have suffered an ankle or Achilles injury. Howard later said that he was fine, and his full participation in practice Wednesday reflects this. He was one of the lone bright spots during the Bears’ Week 10 loss to the Buccaneers, as he managed to rush for 100 yards for his fourth time in six games. Howard has been so successful this season in large part thanks to his ability to make defenders miss, as his average of 5.2 evaded tackles per game ranks seventh among all RBs this season, per playerprofiler.com. He has a tough matchup this week against a Giants defense that has allowed an average of just 3.6 yards per rush through 10 weeks – tied for the fifth-best mark in the league. Howard is priced at $6,800 on FanDuel with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and has a +2.58 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Ka’Deem Carey and Jeremy Langford
Howard was the unquestioned leader in the backfield last week, as Carey and Langford had just six and three touches, respectively. Langford worked as the passing-down back, although his four receptions netted just 10 yards. Neither back is expected to play enough snaps to warrant fantasy consideration this week.
WR – Cameron Meredith
Meredith is now the Bears’ featured receiver, as Alshon Jeffery will miss the next four games due to a PED suspension. It’s great news for Meredith, who thrived this season in his only two games with more than five targets:
Meredith averaged 13.5 targets over the above two-week span. He made the most of his extra opportunities, as our Trends tool shows that he posted a +20.71 Plus/Minus and averaged 27.95 DK points. While this two-week stretch displayed Meredith’s ability to rack up yards, keep in mind that Brian Hoyer was the QB during this stretch and that Meredith’s current $5,600 DK price tag is far higher than his near-minimum salary during those two games. Additionally, the Giants have been the league’s third-best defense against No. 1 wide receivers, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Meredith is priced at $4,100 on DK with a +3.2 Projected Plus/Minus, although he has 13-16 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Eddie Royal
Royal returned to action last week, although he was targeted just twice. He should be a larger part of the offense as he becomes healthier and should see an uptick in his targets with Jeffery out. Playing without Jeffery is nothing new for Royal, as he played much better last season with Jeffery sidelined:
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Royal doubled his PPR points and averaged over two more targets per game in his four games with Jeffery sidelined. His raw totals are underwhelming, but the uptick in his usage is certainly encouraging. Despite the likelihood of additional targets, Royal will need to overcome a tough matchup this week against slot cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, PFF’s 11th-highest graded cornerback this season. He’s priced at $3,400 on DK with an 80 percent Bargain Rating and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Josh Bellamy
Bellamy is expected to step in as the Bears’ No. 3 wide receiver. He played only one snap last week; the team has not gone out of their way to get him involved in the offense this season. Bellamy has surpassed 50 receiving yards once in 20 career games and shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option as the No. 3 receiver on an offense that has thrown just nine passing touchdowns this season – tied for the fewest in the league.
WR – Marquess Wilson
WIlson (foot) is officially questionable. Long on hype and short on NFL production, Wilson was activated from the PUP on Tuesday. He eventually could emerge as an Alshon substitute, but that probably won’t happen this week.
TE – Zach Miller
Miller had a great end to the 2015 season, however, his best performances didn’t usually coincide with the seven games that Jeffery missed:
Miller actually performed better than normal with Royal sidelined last season, but he’s struggled when defenses have been able to focus their efforts away from Jeffery. In five games without Jeffery on the field, Miller averaged a 2.6-30.2-0 line. He does have a great matchup this week against a Giants defense that has allowed 3.3 DK points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months. Miller is priced at $3,800 on DK and has six Pro Trends.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
Manning has attempted the eighth-most passes in the NFL this season and, over his past four games, has averaged 40.75 attempts per game. Other than a horrific game at Los Angeles, Manning has put up large numbers in his last three home games. In those three games, he has thrown a total of 10 touchdowns, hasn’t had a game with less than three touchdowns, and averaged 24.33 DraftKings points per game. Trusting Manning is always scary, but with FantasyLabs projected ownership of less than five percent, he is an intriguing play in DK’s Millionaire Maker tournament.
RB – Rashad Jennings
Jennings out-snapped surging rookie Paul Perkins 45 to 30 on Monday night and had his best game of the season. He has now seen double-digit carries in three straight games. He has experienced a Salary Change of -$600 on DK, where he is currently the N0. 1 rated running back in CSURAM88’s Player Model. RBs getting comparable rushing attempts who have experienced a similar salary decrease have traditionally produced a +2.41 Plus/Minus on DK. With the Giants large favorites at home, Jennings is surely worth a shot in guaranteed prize pools this week.
RB – Paul Perkins
Perkins saw a season-high 40 percent of the snaps on Monday and has now seen his snap count rise for four straight weeks. Perkins is priced higher than Jennings on DK but has a 95 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he is $1,100 less than Jennings. If you want to roster a complementary RB and take a GPP swing with Perkins, do so on FD.
WR – Odell Beckham
Beckham has been targeted at least 10 times in six of nine games this season and ranks sixth in the NFL with 10.1 targets per game. The Bears have allowed the fourth-most receptions, ninth-most receiving yards (1,658), and eighth-most fantasy points per game (25.4) to wide receivers this season. Beckham has five touchdowns in his last four games and has averaged 20.72 DK points per game during that time frame. Additionally, Beckham’s 37.17 percent Market Share of Air Yards is the 11th-best mark in the NFL over the past four games. According to Pro Football Focus, Odell will get to run some routes at De’Vante Bausby this week. Bausby’s atrocious 37.8 PFF pass coverage grade is the fifth-worst mark in the entire league. Beckham is an elite play this week and, even with FantasyLabs projected ownership of 21-25 percent in the Milly Maker, he’s not quite chalky enough to fade.
WR – Sterling Shepard
Shepard appears to be recovering from his early-season rookie-wall phase: He’s scored a touchdown in two straight games. He’s been targeted extremely consistently all season with either seven or eight targets in seven of nine games so far. Per our Matchups tool, Shepard will see his share of slot corner Cre’von LeBlanc, whose respectable PFF 70.1 coverage grade ranks 59th at the position. With FantasyLabs projected ownership of five to eight percent in both the Milly Maker and Sunday Million, stacking Shepard with Eli is an appealing way to differentiate your lineups from the Odell crowd.
WR – Victor Cruz
Cruz didn’t play last week but is almost certain to play this, as he has been removed from the team’s injury report. Cruz has a 76 percent Bargain Rating on FD and FL projected ownership of one percent or less in the Sunday Million; if healthy, he’s playable as a GPP dart.
TE – Will Tye
Just when we thought Tye had broken free from his Larry Donnell problem, rookie Jerell Adams comes in and grabs three catches and a touchdown. That said, Tye hogged nearly all the snaps at the position for the second straight week and was targeted eight times in the game. He’s averaged 7.5 targets per game over the past two weeks. Tye can be had for the stone minimum on FD, where he remains a viable play.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
