NFL DFS Week 11 Main Slate Picks Breakdown: Rhamondre Stevenson is Still Too Cheap

NFL Week 11 features an 11-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud

There are studs, there are super-studs, and then there’s Josh Allen. It is impossible to overstate just how good this guy has been this season. He’s averaged over 27 fantasy points per game this season, and he’s provided a remarkable combination of ceiling and floor. He’s scored less than 24.52 DraftKings points in just one contest, and he’s scored at least 30.7 DraftKings points five times. He hasn’t played his best football in recent weeks, but he’s still racked up 25.6 and 26.8 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.

Allen is in a phenomenal spot to right the ship this week, assuming the Bills can actually get to Detroit. It’s a massive upgrade over staying in Buffalo, which is currently getting pounded by snow. The total on this game sits at a slate-high 49.5 points, and the Bills lead all teams with a 28.75-point implied team total.

The Browns have not provided much resistance on defense this season. They rank 31st in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, and they own a bottom-seven unit against the run and the pass. Allen is capable of beating teams with his arm and his legs, so it’s a perfect matchup. He leads the position in median and ceiling projection per THE BLITZ, and he owns the top DraftKings projected Plus/Minus as well.

Value

The other game with a 49.5-point total this week features the Falcons and Bears. While Justin Fields has deservedly been priced up following back-to-back smash weeks, Marcus Mariota remains very affordable at just $5,500 on DraftKings. The Falcons have a run-heavy offense – they rank 31st in pass rate over expectation – but Mariota has still posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past five games.

Mariota is capable of contributing to their rushing attack. He’s averaging 34.7 rushing yards per game, and QB rushing production is a cheat code in fantasy football.

When Mariota does take to the air, he should find plenty of success in this matchup. The Bears rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed 31, 35, and 49 points in their last three games.

Quick Hits

Speaking of Fields, he is currently projected for the most ownership at the position in THE BLITZ. He’s in another fantastic spot vs. the Falcons, but there are some reasons for concern. He’s been priced up to $7,600, making him the fourth-priciest quarterback this week, and he’s due for some regression as a rusher. Fields has not displayed the ability to beat teams with his arm, so he’s a prime fade candidate in Week 11.

Jalen Hurts has come back to reality a bit after a torrid start to the year, scoring 22.8 FanDuel points or fewer in three of his past four games. That’s caused his salary to dip to $8,800, resulting in a slate-high Bargain Rating of 79%. That makes him an interesting buy-low option against the Colts.

Dak Prescott has scored at least 21.2 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s an appealing midrange target vs. the Vikings. The total on this game sits at 48.0 points, and the Vikings have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud

Saquon Barkley is officially back. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.66 this season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games. The lone exception was two games ago vs. the Seahawks, but Barkley still saw 25 opportunities in that contest.

Volume has been key to Barkley’s success this season. He racked up 35 carries last week vs. the Texans, and no one in football has more touches than Barkley through the first 11 weeks. Barkley is also averaging 4.7 yards per attempt, so he’s been efficient as well. That’s his highest mark since averaging 5.0 yards per carry as a rookie.

Barkley draws another solid matchup this week vs. the Lions. Their defense has been very exploitable this season, and they rank 27th in rush defense DVOA. Additionally, their offense is capable of putting points on the board, which puts opposing offenses in appealing fantasy situations. The Lions have allowed at least 24 points in all but one game this season, and they’ve allowed at least 30 points in four of them.

Barkley is expected to be popular this week, but he leads the position in ceiling projection.

Value

Rhamondre Stevenson is back on the slate following a bye week, but nothing has changed about his pricing. He remains way too cheap on DraftKings, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.

Stevenson will be joined by Damien Harris this week, but his workload remains outstanding for fantasy purposes. They’ll likely split the carries close to 50/50, but Stevenson gets virtually all of the pass-catching duties out of the backfield. He has at least seven targets in three straight weeks, and he’s racked up 18 total catches over that time frame. That’s good for an average of six fantasy points before factoring in any yardage or touchdowns.

Stevenson also has solid touchdown upside. He’s received 66% of the short down and distance opportunities in the Patriots’ backfield, including 67% from the inside the five-yard line.

Ultimately, ceding a few carries in between the 20s doesn’t matter if you’re still catching passes and scoring touchdowns. Stevenson has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games, and there’s no reason to expect anything different vs. the Jets.

Quick Hits

Dameon Pierce is another player who DraftKings refuses to price properly. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine straight games, and he’s averaged 21 carries and 3.4 targets over his past five games. That’s elite usage, giving him plenty of appeal even in a tough spot vs. the Commanders.

The last time we saw Joe Mixon, he was busy scoring five touchdowns and racking up 58.1 DraftKings points vs. the Panthers. Despite that massive performance, Mixon has still somehow underperformed his Pro Football Focus expected fantasy points for the season. He leads all running backs with an average of 20.9 expected DraftKings points per game, so more positive regression could be headed his way.

David Montgomery stands out as an outstanding value option on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. Khalil Herbert was placed on Injured Reserve this week, leaving Montgomery as the clear RB1 in the Bears’ backfield. Montgomery and Herbert have averaged a combined 26.3 opportunities per game since Week 7, and with Herbert now out of the picture, Montgomery should handle the lion’s share.

Don’t forget about Alvin Kamara. The stud running back has averaged just 8.5 rushing attempts and four targets over his past two games, causing his salary to decrease across the industry. He should be much more involved this week vs. the Rams, making him a prime buy-low candidate.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud

There are some strong options to consider at the top of the receiver position this week, but it’s hard to look past Stefon Diggs for the top spot. He has been an outstanding option all season, but he’s taken his game to another level in recent weeks. He has at least 100 yards in four of his past five games, with the lone exception being 93 yards against the Jets and standout rookie corner Sauce Gardner. He’s added a touchdown in three of those contests, and he’s scored at least 25.8 DraftKings points in all four games.

Over that six-week sample size, Diggs leads the league with a 33.5% target share. He’s also been targeted on 32.4% of his routes run, which ranks third among players with at least 100 routes.

Diggs should have no problem posting another big game vs. the Browns. In addition to ranking 26th in pass defense DVOA, PFF gives Diggs the fifth-largest matchup advantage of the week. He ranks first in THE BLITZ in median and ceiling projection, and he ranks first in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.

Value

You’re going to need at least one value receiver this week, and Parris Campbell stands out as the best of the bunch. He’s quietly blossomed in a big part of the Colts passing attack, racking up at least nine targets in three of his past five games. He’s had at least seven catches and a touchdown in all three contests, scoring at least 18.7 DraftKings points in each.

The only reason Campbell is still so affordable is the two clunkers he posted in Week 8 and 9. That said, those games came with Sam Ehlinger, who is definitely not an NFL-caliber quarterback. Matt Ryan may not be the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s a huge upgrade for the Colts’ passing attack.

Campbell ranks fourth in THE BLITZ in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he’s first among all receivers priced below $6,100.

Quick Hits

CeeDee Lamb hasn’t had the most dominant fantasy season, but most of his games were with Cooper Rush at quarterback. He remains a true alpha in terms of target share (32.2%) and air yards share (41.3%), and with Prescott back under-center, he’s ready to take off. He broke out in a big way in Week 10, racking up 11 catches for 150 yards and two touchdowns, and he’s set up for another big performance vs. the Vikings.

Are you feeling dangerous? If so, Courtland Sutton is an interesting option at $6,000 vs. the Raiders. Jerry Jeudy has been ruled out for the Broncos, leaving Sutton as their only proven option at receiver. Russell Wilson also had his best game of the year in his first matchup vs. the Raiders, so their passing attack might provide a bit more value than usual.

The Rams’ receivers are another potential source of value with Cooper Kupp sidelined. Allen Robinson should take over as the team’s top receiver, but he’s been shaky in his first year with the Rams. Van Jefferson could be the better option, and he’s currently projected for around 1% ownership on DraftKings.

Terry McLaurin continues to get fed with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, and he’s coming off 11 targets, eight receptions, and 128 yards last week vs. the Eagles. He draws a much friendlier matchup this week vs. the Texans, and his price has yet to reflect his increased production with Heinicke.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud

Travis Kelce is not available on this slate, making the top of the tight end position weaker than usual. Mark Andrews is the top option, and he’s been fantastic when on the field this season. That said, he’s currently questionable with knee and shoulder injuries, and he could be limited even if he’s active. T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts are the next most expensive options on DraftKings, and neither player is particularly exciting.

With that in mind, Tyler Higbee can be considered a stud on this slate. He’s already been one of the most active tight ends in football this season, with his 20.4% target market share ranking fifth at the position. He’s also been targeted on 27.6% of his routes run, which trails only Kelce, Andrews, and Pitts among high-volume tight ends. Overall, his average of 12.6 expected DraftKings points per game ranks fourth at the position.

Higbee has done all this with Kupp assuming one of the largest target shares in the league, so it’s possible that his role will grow moving forward. He’s projected for the top Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

Value

If you’re looking to go a bit cheaper, Dawson Knox is worth some consideration at $3,200. That’s as cheap as he’s been all season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past five games. He racked up six targets in his last outing – tied for his top mark of the season – which he converted into four catches for 57 yards. If he can add a touchdown in Week 11 vs. the Browns, he has the potential to provide excellent value.

Quick Hits

Even though I glanced over Hockenson, he’s someone to consider in tournaments. He had 10 targets in his second game with the Vikings, and the Cowboys have been mediocre against opposing tight ends this season. He’s more reasonably priced on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 76%.

Greg Dulcich was a massive bust last week, scoring just 2.1 DraftKings points despite the third-highest average ownership in the entire field. That could scare some people off, but Dulcich is arguably in an even better spot in Week 11. Not only is the team without Jeudy, but Dulcich owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.9 vs. the Raiders.

Dalton Schultz is another member of the Cowboys who is happy to see Prescott back in the lineup. He’s scored at least 13.4 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he racked up eight targets in his last outing. He also draws an excellent matchup this week vs. the Vikings, resulting in a position-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.2.

Roster Construction

This is another very tough week for cash games. You’re going to need to get creative to find enough value to jam in the best options at receiver and running back, and you’re still going to need to make sacrifices.

The first decision is how to approach the flex spot. The currently optimal lineup by projected points in THE BLITZ features two tight ends, which is always a dangerous approach. Plenty of people went that route with Dulcich and Foster Moreau last week, and it did not work out well.

Still, I find that to be the easiest way to build a strong lineup this week. Using both Higbee and Knox opens up enough cap flexibility for Diggs at receiver and Pierce and Stevenson at running back. You can also use a receiver in the $6k range – I prefer McLaurin, but Sutton and Michael Pittman Jr. would also suffice – leaving an interesting decision for your final two spots.

One scenario involves paying up for Allen at quarterback, which leaves enough for Campbell at WR3. Getting to Allen is always appealing since he provides one of the safest floors in fantasy. The other option is going with Mariota and Lamb. THE BLITZ projections ultimately favor that route, but I think the Allen side has a bit more upside. Ultimately, both are acceptable.

As usual, the roster construction on FanDuel is a bit more straightforward on FanDuel. You can pretty easily use Allen at quarterback without having to sacrifice too much with the rest of your roster. The current optimal in THE BLITZ features Allen at QB, Pierce, Montgomery, and Kamara at running back, and Pitts at tight end. That leaves enough to fill out your receiving corps and defense pretty comfortably.

As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.

Make sure to also take advantage of all the excellent written content that will be produced prior to kickoff.

Good luck this week!