The Week 11 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 17, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
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Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are eight wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Michael Thomas: $9,900 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel
- Julio Jones: $7,500 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel
- D.J. Moore: $5,900 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel
- Terry McLaurin: $5,600 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel
- Calvin Ridley: $5,500 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel
- Hunter Renfrow: $4,000 DraftKings; $5,700 FanDuel
- Deebo Samuel: $4,000 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel
- Russell Gage: $3,300 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel
Michael Thomas: New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 50 Over/Under
UPDATE (Nov. 16): Bucs OLBs Carl Nassib (groin) and Anthony Nelson (hamstring) are out. CB Carlton Davis (hip) is in. CB M.J. Stewart (knee) is out.
Even though Thomas has played most of the season without quarterback Drew Brees, Thomas still leads the league with 103 targets, 86 receptions and 1,027 yards receiving. And that’s not a fluke. He entered the season with an all-time NFL-high 321 receptions through his first three years.
Regardless of who throws him the ball, Thomas is simply a reception magnet. In his 27 games since last year (including playoffs), Thomas has an outlandish 83.2% catch rate on 10.1 targets per game. And this season, he leads all receivers with an 81.8% catch rate on contested targets (per Player Profiler). That is unbelievable.
It’s not all 100% positive for Thomas. If you look through our FantasyLabs Trends Tool, you’ll see that Thomas has never been more expensive than he is this week, and he’s on the wrong side of his splits.
- Home (32 games): 15.7 FanDuel points, +3.89 Plus/Minus
- Away (27 games): 14.6 FanDuel points, +3.07 Plus/Minus
Sure, it’s less than ideal that Thomas isn’t at the Coors Field of fantasy football this weekend, but his splits aren’t all that drastic anyway, and other than his salary and splits, there’s no reason to dislike him against the Buccaneers.
For the season, Thomas is the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 18.8 FanDuel points per game, and he has been a strong source of value with his +6.10 Plus/Minus value. He has hit his salary-based expectations in every game this season.
Wide receiver production can be volatile, but thanks to his steady target volume, Thomas has been no worse than a high-end fantasy WR2 every week (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
Just last week, Thomas had a 13-reception, 152-yard performance on 14 targets even though the Saints managed to score just nine points. He’s in peak form. Even with his inflated salaries, Thomas is a strong option for both cash games and guaranteed prize pools.
Why? Well, Thomas has the mother of all matchups. The Buccaneers have allowed a league-high 40.3 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers. They have an extreme funnel defense that ranks No. 1 against the run but No. 27 against the pass (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).
And amazingly, as bad as the Bucs corners have been this year, they will almost certainly be worse this week because of personnel changes and injury issues.
No. 1 cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III was cut on Tuesday. In theory, this move could be addition by subtraction. In reality, it’s just subtraction by deletion because the Bucs have almost no reliable corner depth.
So Hargreaves is gone, and perimeter corner Carlton Davis (hip) missed Weeks 9-10 and did not practice on Wednesday. I doubt he plays this week. Without Hargreaves and Davis, the Bucs will start rookies Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean on the outside. Combined, they have seven full games of NFL experience.
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13).
On top of that, slot corner M.J. Stewart (knee) also missed practice on Wednesday. If he can’t suit up, the Bucs will likely go with special-teamer Ryan Smith or maybe a backup safety in the slot.
On any given snap, Thomas will have a great matchup regardless of where he lines up.
In Week 5, Thomas went off on the Bucs with 35.7 FanDuel points and 11-182-2 receiving on 13 targets. In his two divisional matchups with them last year, he averaged 13.5 receptions, 139 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 15 targets per game (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
The Bucs have allowed an NFL-high 501.1 air yards and yards after the catch per game to opponents (per AirYards.com). This week, Thomas has an upside higher than heaven, and he has position-high median and ceiling projections in our Models.
Thomas is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-best 99% Bargain Rating.
Thomas is also the consensus No. 1 wide receiver in our Week 11 fantasy football rankings.
Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (+5) at Carolina Panthers, 49.5 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 16): RB Devonta Freeman (foot) is out. Panthers CB James Bradberry (groin) is in, CB Ross Cockrell (quad) is out and CB Donte Jackson (hip) is questionable.
Julio is the No. 9 fantasy wide receiver with 14.4 FanDuel points per game. That’s not bad, but it’s not dominant. Is Julio starting to slip?
I doubt it. He’s No. 4 with 142.4 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. That mark places him just below Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill and Kenny Golladay and just above Davante Adams, Chris Godwin and Odell Beckham Jr.
In terms of his opportunity and raw skill, Julio is still very much among the elite.
Over his past four games, he’s averaged 108 yards, and last year, he led the league with 1,677 yards receiving.
In fact, he’s progressively led the league in receiving since 2014, his first truly dominant campaign.
- 2018-19: 2,468 yards
- 2017-19: 3,912 yards
- 2016-19: 5,321 yards
- 2015-19: 7,192 yards
- 2014-19: 8,785 yards
Seasons come and go, but Julio remains. He is Queen Elizabeth the First.
His dominance is now so routine that it’s almost dumbfoundingly boring. And without tight end Austin Hooper (knee) doubtful to play, Julio could see more targets than he usually does.
This is an intriguing spot for Julio. Over the past half decade, he has had strong reverse splits:
- Underdog (37 games): 18.3 FanDuel points, +3.60 Plus/Minus, 59.5% Consistency Rating
- Favorite (55 games): 14.5 FanDuel points, -0.30 Plus/Minus, 45.5% Consistency Rating
In their two divisional matchups last year, cornerback James Bradberry shadowed Julio, who had modest 5-64-0 and 4-28-1 receiving performances, but the situation is more uncertain this year.
Bradberry (groin) missed last week, and the Panthers have used him only sparingly in shadow coverage this year. He practiced in full on Thursday, so he’s likely to play this weekend, but it’s far from certain that he will follow Julio across the field.
On top of that, perimeter cornerback Donte Jackson (hip) and slot cornerback Ross Cockrell (quad) are dealing with injuries. Jackson exited last week early and didn’t return, and Cockrell was also apparently injured in the game. Both missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
The Panthers are No. 3 in pass defense DVOA, but at this point in the week, it looks like there’s a real chance they could be without two of their three starting cornerbacks.
If both Jackson and Cockrell are out, I’ll be interested in Julio for both cash games and GPPs.
For the second straight week, Jones is the No. 1 receiver in the Bales Model for FanDuel, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.
D.J. Moore: Carolina Panthers (-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 49.5 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 16): LT Greg Little (Concussion) is in. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is in.
This is the first time this year Moore has popped in our Models: It’s been a long time coming.
One of my favorite up-and-coming receivers, Moore has played the supermajority of his team’s offensive snaps in each game since Week 8 last year. To put it gently, his production has been uneven.
In only two of his 19 games as a full-time player has Moore had a fantasy WR2 performance.
But in that span he’s averaged 75.4 yards on 7.5 targets, 5.1 receptions and 0.6 carries per game, and that’s pretty good for a 22-year-old receiver in the middle of just his second season.
The main problem with Moore’s production has been his lack of scoring: As a full-time player, he has managed to convert his 1,432 yards into just two touchdowns. That sucks, but it’s also probably a fluke. This year, Moore leads the Panthers with 17 red-zone targets and eight red-zone receptions (per Pro Football Focus). Eventually, his touchdown luck will improve.
And Moore is in good form right now. Over the past six weeks, he leads the team with 9.6 targets, 6.8 receptions, 84.6 yards receiving and 134.6 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. Even though the passing game isn’t especially explosive with backup quarterback Kyle Allen, the dynamic Moore has 12.1 FanDuel points per game with a +5.29 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency Rating since Week 5.
Over the past two games, he’s had back-to-back 100-yard performances.
And I love his matchup: The Falcons are No. 30 in PFF coverage grade.
No. 1 cornerback Desmond Trufant (toe) has been out since Week 6, and he’s uncertain for this weekend. Even if Trufant does play, that’s not a problem: He probably won’t be 100% healthy, and before his injury, he allowed an NFL-high five touchdowns in Weeks 1-5.
If Trufant is out, special-teams veteran Blidi Wreh-Wilson will once again start on the perimeter. This year, BWW has allowed a 76.9% catch rate and a porous 44.3 PFF coverage grade.
And the secondary has a lot of moving pieces right now besides Trufant. The Falcons lost Pro-Bowl strong safety Keanu Neal (Achilles, IR) in Week 3, and since then the secondary has been a mess. To compensate for Neal’s absence, within the past month Ricardo Allen has moved from free safety to strong safety, slot corner Damontae Kazee has shifted to free safety and fourth-round backup corner Kendall Sheffield has slid into the slot from the perimeter.
With so many relocated defensive backs, it’s not hard to see how the Falcons could allow some big plays because of back-end communication issues and lack of coordination, and Moore is a long touchdown waiting to happen.
Moore seems likely to match up most with cornerback Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed a 72.2% catch rate this year. Just last week — playing primarily against Michael Thomas — he allowed a 9-94-0 receiving line on nine targets.
For GPPs especially, Moore warrants consideration.
Moore is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner and Raybon Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +3.99 Projected Plus/Minus.
Terry McLaurin: Washington Redskins (+1.5) vs. New York Jets, 38.5 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 16): RB Chris Thompson (toe) and WR Paul Richardson (hamstring) are out. Jets LB C.J. Mosley (groin) is out. LBs Neville Hewitt (neck, knee) and Brandon Copeland (hip, thumb) are questionable. CB Darryl Roberts (calf) is doubtful.
In Weeks 1-6, McLaurin looked like a legitimate candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year, averaging 16.5 FanDuel points, 81.6 yards and one touchdown on 7.6 targets and 4.6 per game.
But in the month since then, McLaurin has entered the heart of darkness.
- Fantasy production: 4.5 FanDuel points, -3.44 Plus/Minus, 0.0% Consistency Rating
- Football production: 4.7 targets, three receptions, 29.7 yards and zero touchdowns
Under interim head coach Bill Callahan, the Redskins have a 51.9% run rate despite owning an average point differential of -8.3. They are simply running the ball as much as possible, abandoning their No. 1 receiver to find his way through a carnival of pain.
This week, though, he might break free: He’s playing the Jets. This is one of the best matchups on the slate. The Jets have a funnel defense that ranks No. 2 against the run but No. 24 against the pass in DVOA. On top of that, the Jets have allowed the second-most FanDuel points to opposing wide receivers with 35.5 per game.
Pictured: Washington Redskins wide receiver Terry McLaurin. Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports
And the Jets are severely injured. Left corner Trumaine Johnson (ankle, IR) is out for the year. Right corner Darryl Roberts (calf) missed Week 10 and seems doubtful. Backup corner Nate Hairston was benched last week for poor play. So the Jets are apparently rolling with untested third-stringers and Charles Dickens characters “Arthur Maulet” and “Blessuan Austin” on the perimeter.
The Redskins are coming out of the bye, so rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins should be more acclimated to the system and prepared for the game. If McLaurin’s once-and-future quarterback can be even marginally better than he was in Week 9, the potential-dripping receiver could have a GPP-winning performance.
McLaurin is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel, where he has six Pro Trends and a robust 98% Bargain Rating.
Calvin Ridley: Atlanta Falcons (+5) at Carolina Panthers, 49.5 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 16): RB Devonta Freeman (foot) is out. Panthers CB James Bradberry (groin) is in, CB Ross Cockrell (quad) is out and CB Donte Jackson (hip) is questionable.
Fantasy investors hoping for a bump in Ridley’s usage in the wake of the Mohamed Sanu trade have been disappointed.
- With Sanu (seven games): 6.3 targets, 4.1 receptions, 53.3 yards
- Without Sanu (two games): Six targets, 3.5 receptions, 49 yards
Aside from the sizable-yet-random scoring discrepancy — 0.57 touchdowns per game with Sanu, none without him — Ridley pre- and post-Sanu production looks similar.
And his role is the same: Although he’s run a few more routes from the slot without Sanu, Ridley is still primarily lining up on the perimeter.
So if you roster Ridley this week, your reasons for doing so should probably have nothing to do with his usage or role in a post-Sanu system.
But there are a few reasons to like him against the Panthers.
As noted before, they are dealing with significant injuries. Most notably, perimeter cornerback Donte Jackson (hip) and slot cornerback Ross Cockrell (quad) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
If they are out, the Panthers will be exploitable. Backup cornerbacks Javien Elliott and Cole Luke are extremely raw. Elliott has allowed an 87.5% catch rate across his four-year career. And Cole is an undrafted third-year practice squad call-up with just one game of NFL experience.
Against the Panthers last year, Ridley had productive 4-64-1 and 3-90-1 receiving performances.
I wouldn’t touch Ridley in cash games because he’s a boom-or-bust player, but his touchdown-driven volatility makes him attractive for tournaments.
- Touchdown (11 games): 18.0 FanDuel points, 7.5 targets, 5.3 receptions, 77.7 yards, 1.3 touchdowns
- No Touchdown (14 games): 5.0 FanDuel points, 4.7 targets, 3.0 receptions, 31.2 yards, zero touchdowns
The Falcons are No. 1 in the league with their 68.7% pass-play rate, so they’re likely to throw this week, and with tight end Austin Hooper (knee) doubtful to play, Ridley could see a few extra targets.
With increased usage and a little touchdown luck, Ridley could put up a 100 yards and a touchdown against a defense that looks like it could be without multiple starting corners.
Ridley is the No. 1 option in the Freedman Model for FanDuel, where he is most investable with a 97% Bargain Rating.
Hunter Renfrow: Oakland Raiders (-10.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 48.5 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 16): Bengals CB Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR) is out.
While No. 1 wide receiver Tyrell Williams and tight end Darren Waller get all of the pass-catching accolades, Renfrow just goes about his thankless job in the slot, doing true yeoman’s work for all us mute inglorious Miltonic would-be walk-ons.
Renfrow is Everyman.
But he’s actually starting to make an NFL impression. Since Williams returned from injury in Week 8, Renfrow is No. 1 on the team with 5.3 targets, 4.7 receptions and 61.3 yards receiving and No. 2 with a nice 69 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game.
In that span, he’s averaged 14.8 DraftKings points per game with a +7.82 Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating. Given the aged rookie’s physical limitations (5-foot-10, 184 pounds, 4.59-second 40-yard dash), that’s pretty good.
There are a few reasons to like Renfrow this week.
First, he’s cheap and unlikely to be exorbitantly chalky. If you roster Renfrow, you can afford to pay up for a lot of other players, and your team still might have a contrarian lean.
Plus, the Raiders have a slate-high 29.5-point implied Vegas total, and Renfrow’s production this year has been very correlated to team total. If the Raiders score a lot of points, some of them could be trickle down to him.
And then there’s his excellent matchup: The Bengals are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA. Slot cornerback Darqueze Dennard has missed seven games this year, and he saw limited snaps last week because the Ravens used so many multi-tight end sets, but in Dennard’s one game with sustained action (Week 7), slot-centered Dede Westbrook had a season-best 6-103-0 receiving performance. And No. 1 corner Dre Kirkpatrick (knee) has been out since Week 7 and has yet to return to practice. In the slot and in his few snaps on the perimeter, Renfrow will have a shot at winning his one-on-one matchups.
Finally, Renfrow is an undervalued stacking partner with quarterback Derek Carr. Long-term team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and in his nine games with Carr, the rookie receiver and his quarterback have had a strong 0.75 correlation in their production. If Renfrow has a big game, Carr seems likely to have one also. For GPPs, use our Lineup Builder to stack Renfrow with his passer.
Renrow is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan, Koerner and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has five Pro Trends and a 94% Bargain Rating.
Deebo Samuel: San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 45 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 16): TE George Kittle (knee) and Matt Breida (ankle) are doubtful. WR Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) is a questionable game-time decision.
No. 1 wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and tight end George Kittle (knee) both seem unlikely to play this weekend. Neither one practiced on Wednesday or Thursday.
If they are out, then Samuel will warrant strong consideration in cash games and tournaments. Not only is he likely to be the team’s top option in the passing game, but he is also extremely cheap because his pricing was set on Sunday and he played in Monday Night Football.
As a result, his salaries don’t take into account the fact that Sanders was injured during the game, Kittle didn’t play and Samuel hit career-high marks with 11 targets, eight receptions and 112 yards receiving.
So Samuel is inexpensive relative to the usage he’s likely to get, and regardless of his opportunity, I like him a lot as an emerging first-year talent.
As I noted in my post-draft dynasty rookie rankings, Samuel contributed in a multitude of ways in college: For his undergraduate career, he had 154 yards rushing and seven touchdowns on 25 carries, and on special teams he averaged 29.0 yards per kick return and scored another four touchdowns on kickoffs. He’s a legitimate all-around weapon.
And as a receiver, Samuel has good route-running chops and after-the-catch tenacity, and he can play both out wide and in the slot.
And he has a great matchup: The Cardinals are No. 32 in PFF coverage grade, and slot cornerback Tramaine Brock (hamstring) missed last week and is uncertain for Week 11.
If Sanders is out, Samuel could draw shadow coverage from No. 1 cornerback Patrick Peterson, but since he returned from suspension, Peterson has not been his former self. In four games, he’s allowed a 79.2% catch rate, 284 yards and two touchdowns. Given how cheap he is, I expect that Samuel will be popular even if Peterson does cover him.
Samuel is the No. 1 receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88 and SportsGeek Model for DraftKings, where he has five Pro Trends and a 91% Bargain Rating.
Russell Gage: Atlanta Falcons (+5) at Carolina Panthers, 49.5 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 16): RB Devonta Freeman (foot) is out. Panthers CB James Bradberry (groin) is in, CB Ross Cockrell (quad) is out and CB Donte Jackson (hip) is questionable.
Once more unto the breach, dear friends. Here we are yet again with another Falcons receiver.
In the two games since the Falcons traded Mohamed Sanu, Gage is No. 2 on the team with 14 targets and 11 receptions, which he has leveraged into 9.6 DraftKings points per game with a +4.39 Plus/Minus.
That production is by no means extraordinary, but at $3,300, it might be enough to get the job done.
A sixth-round, second-year LSU project with little NFL production, Gage seems like an unlikely option, but he has a locked-in role as the No. 3 receiver, and he could see more action with tight end Austin Hooper (knee) doubtful to play.
And as noted previously, the Panthers are dealing with injuries in their secondary. Slot cornerback Ross Cockrell (quad) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday and is uncertain. If he’s out, Gage would likely face backup Cole Luke in the interior for the majority of his snaps.
As inexperienced as Gage is, Luke is even more so. An undrafted third-year practice squad call-up, Luke played in his first NFL game just last week, and he played more on special teams than defense.
With his salary, matchup and likely sub-5% ownership rate, Gage is viable as a stacking option or leverage play in a game that should be popular and could lead the slate in scoring.
Gage is the No. 1 receiver in the Raybon Model for DraftKings, where he has position-high marks with a +3.87 Projected Plus/Minus and 98% Bargain Rating.
Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans ($8,100 DK, $8,300 FD): Nuk has averaged 12 targets, 9.3 receptions, 87.7 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game over the past month, but field-stretching wide receiver Will Fuller (hamstring) has practiced this week and might return to action. The Ravens present a tough matchup with the newly formed three-headed corner unit of Jimmy Smith, Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey. But the Texans are coming off the bye, and Hopkins trails only the missing Antonio Brown and Julio since 2015 with his 19.3 DraftKings points per game. With quarterback Deshaun Watson, the Texans are 8-3 against the spread as road underdogs, good for a 43.6% return on investment (per Bet Labs). UPDATE (Nov. 16): WR Will Fuller (hamstring) and LT Laremy Tunsil (knee) are questionable. Ravens NT Michael Pierce (ankle) is doubtful.
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys ($7,700 DK, $8,100 FD): In his 20 games with the Cowboys (including playoffs), Amari has 15.9 FanDuel points per game. Cooper could see shadow coverage from cornerback Darius Slay, who has allowed a catch rate of just 57.7% for his career, but the Lions have allowed the second-most air yards and yards after the catch combined per game to opposing teams with 478.3. Amari is No. 2 at the position with eight Pro Trends on FanDuel. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Lions QB Matthew Stafford (back) and DT Da’Shawn Hand (ankle) are out. S Tracy Walker (knee) is questionable.
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($7,600 DK, $7,400 FD): In his four games this year without Josh Gordon playing a majority of the snaps, Edelman has averaged 12.3 targets, 8.5 receptions, 81.8 receiving yards, a near-elite 135.8 air yards and yards after the catch combined and 0.5 touchdowns per game. The Pats are coming off the bye, and slot cornerback Avonte Maddox has a subpar 55.4 PFF coverage grade. Edelman leads all receivers in our Models with his DraftKings and FanDuel floor projections. UPDATE (Nov. 16): WR N’Keal Harry (ankle) is in.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,400 DK, $8,200 FD): The future Hall-of-Famer is easily No. 1 with 172.6 air yards and yards after the catch per game and No. 2 with 1.33 end-zone targets per game. With those numbers, it’s little surprise that he’s the No. 2 fantasy receiver with 22.2 DraftKings points per game. In Week 5, the Saints held him to zero receptions on three targets. But No. 1 corner Marshon Lattimore (thigh) exited Week 10 with an injury, and I doubt he’ll play this week. In his absence, Evans will have a much easier matchup against No. 2 corner Eli Apple. Like Thanos, Evans is inevitable. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Saints CB Marshon Lattimore (thigh, hamstring) is out.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,300 DK, $8,000 FD): Godwin is No. 3 with 21.6 DraftKings points and No. 6 with 133.6 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. Despite trailing Mike Evans in targets (89-84), the slot-centered Godwin leads the team with 60 receptions. With cornerback Marshon Lattimore (thigh) expected to be out, P.J. Williams will likely move to the perimeter, which means that Godwin will have a very winnable matchup against third-string rookie safety and slot fill-in Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Saints CB Marshon Lattimore (thigh, hamstring) is out.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($6,700 DK, $7,600 FD): Quarterback Matthew Stafford (back) missed Week 10 and seems doubtful for Week 11, so Golladay will once again have to roll with backup Jeff Driskel. In five games since the bye, Golladay has put up a 19-454-4 receiving line. For the year, he ranks No. 1 with 1.44 end-zone targets and No. 3 with 143.1 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. Over his past 16 games, Golladay has a 75-1,237-10 receiving line. In his 13 career games with a touchdown, he’s averaged 21.9 DraftKings points. UPDATE (Nov. 16): QB Matthew Stafford (back, hip) is out. RB Ty Johnson (concussion) is questionable but presumably still in the league’s protocol.
Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Detroit Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay (19).
John Brown, Buffalo Bills ($6,400 DK, $5,900 FD): The Abolitionist is “high flooring” his way to a 1,200-yard campaign, and I’m loving every minute of it. Brown has a team-high 71 targets, 47 receptions, 680 yards receiving and 1,139 air yards and yards after the catch combined. Brown has a career-high 66.2% catch rate and has hit salary-based expectations in each game this year with a +4.29 Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where he has an elite 98% Bargain Rating. The Dolphins are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA and starting undrafted backups Nik Needham, Ryan Lewis and Chris Lammons at corner. Against the Dolphins in Week 7, JoBro had a 5-83-1 receiving line. Smoke ’em if you got ’em. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Dolphins S Reshad Jones (chest) is expected to play.
Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions ($5,900 DK, $6,600 FD): Jones will likely be without quarterback Matthew Stafford (back), but his boom/bust nature preserves his status as a tournament option. Jones three games of 25-plus DraftKings points this year. In five games since the bye, Jones has a 39-335-5 receiving line. He has a top-five 91% Leverage Score on DraftKings. UPDATE (Nov. 16): QB Matthew Stafford (back, hip) is out. RB Ty Johnson (concussion) is questionable but presumably still in the league’s protocol.
Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($5,800 DK, $6,300 FD): Fuller (hamstring) has missed most of the past month and battled inconsistency all year, but his upside is unquestioned. Discounting his injury-shortened Week 7, Fuller has an elite 145.5 air yards and yards after the catch per game. In his 17 full games with quarterback Deshaun Watson, Fuller has averaged 17.7 DraftKings points. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Fuller (hamstring) and LT Laremy Tunsil (knee) are questionable. Ravens NT Michael Pierce (ankle) is doubtful.
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets ($5,700 DK, $6,500 FD): In his six games with quarterback Sam Darnold, the slot-bound Crowder has averaged 15.6 DraftKings points, 68.5 yards receiving and 0.33 touchdowns on 8.5 targets and 6.7 receptions. For a guy with a low ceiling, he has tall doorways. In a #RevengeGame with his former team, Crowder has a great matchup against cornerback Fabian Moreau, who has allowed an 88% catch rate this year. UPDATE (Nov. 16): C Ryan Kalil (knee, elbow) is out and LT Kelvon Beachum (ankle) is questionable.
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens ($5,600 DK, $5,600 FD): Brown (ankle) was limited on Wednesday and didn’t practice on Thursday, so his health status should be monitored. He’s a boom/bust receiver with just 11.9 FanDuel points per game, but he’s first on the team with 114.2 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. The Texans have allowed the third-most FanDuel points to wide receivers with 34.5 per game. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Brown (ankle) got in a limited practice on Friday and is tentatively expected to play. Texans CBs Bradley Roby (hamstring) and Lonnie Johnson Jr. (concussion) are questionable.
Tyrell Williams, Oakland Raiders ($5,400 DK, $6,200 FD): Williams has just five targets per game since returning from injury three weeks ago, but he still leads the team with 95.4 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. In his five starts with a touchdown this year, Williams has averaged 16.7 DraftKings points. The Bengals are No. 29 in PFF coverage grade, and No. 1 corner Dre Kirkpatrick (knee) has been out since Week 7 and is yet to return to practice. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Bengals CB Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR) is out.
Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers ($5,300 DK, $6,300 FD): The third-year Percy Harvin clone has averaged 13.4 DraftKings points, 54.4 yards and 0.75 touchdowns from scrimmage on 6.9 targets, 3.5 receptions and 0.6 carries per game. Samuel is No. 12 in the league with 127.6 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. The Falcons are No. 31 in PFF coverage grade. UPDATE (Nov. 16): LT Greg Little (Concussion) is in. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is in.
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,200 DK, $5,900 FD): I’m an anti-Boyd truther, but even I can see that this is an underappreciated spot. Wide receivers A.J. Green (ankle) and John Ross (clavicle, IR) are out, so Boyd will continue to operate as the No. 1 pass-catching option in the offense. Boyd is No. 3 in the league with 10.1 targets per game. The Raiders are No. 29 in pass defense DVOA, and slot cornerback Lamarcus Joyner (hamstring) seems likely to miss Week 11. As bad as he has been with his 76.5% catch rate allowed, backup Nevin Lawson is probably worse. UPDATE (Nov. 16): WR A.J. Green (ankle) is out. Joyner is out.
Mohamed Sanu, New England Patriots ($5,100 DK, $5,800 FD): In his two games with the Pats, Sanu has averaged 9.5 targets, and in Week 9 he had a 100% snap rate. Coming out of the bye, he should be more familiar with the offense. Like Edelman, with whom he is likely to split snaps in the slot, he has a good matchup against cornerback Avonte Maddox. UPDATE (Nov. 16): WR N’Keal Harry (ankle) is in.
Robby Anderson, New York Jets ($4,900 DK, $5,400 FD): Anderson (back, shoulder) is dealing some injuries, but he’s expected to play this weekend. He has an 8-97-0 receiving line over the past month, but the Redskins are No. 25 in pass defense DVOA. Anderson has scored a touchdown in 33.3% of his games with quarterback Sam Darnold, averaging 23.2 DraftKings points across the sample. UPDATE (Nov. 16): C Ryan Kalil (knee, elbow) is out and LT Kelvon Beachum (ankle) is questionable.
Phillip Dorsett, New England Patriots ($4,200 DK, $5,300 FD): If we remove the random Week 2 Antonio Brown experiment and Dorsett’s injury-shortened Week 5, he has averaged 5.7 targets, 3.3 receptions, 43.3 yards and 0.67 touchdowns in six games. In this sample, he’s scored a touchdown in 50% of his games and averaged 19.2 DraftKings points when scoring. Dorsett has an advantageous matchup with cornerback Ronald Darby, who has a 43.4 PFF coverage grade. UPDATE (Nov. 16): WR N’Keal Harry (ankle) is in.
Auden Tate, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,200 DK, $5,300 FD): With wide receivers A.J. Green (ankle) and John Ross (clavicle, IR) out, Tate will continue play as the team’s top perimeter option. Since entering the starting lineup in Week 3, Tate has averaged 60.1 yards on 8.3 targets and 4.1 receptions per game. He has just one touchdown on the year but is No. 4 with 10 end-zone targets. Even with rookie quarterback Ryan Finley as the starter, Tate could be in line for some positive touchdown regression. He has a good matchup against cornerback Daryl Worley, and the Raiders are No. 26 in PFF coverage grade. UPDATE (Nov. 16): WR A.J. Green (ankle) is out. Joyner is out.
Ted Ginn Jr., New Orleans Saints ($3,700 DK, $5,300 FD): Ginn is largely a DFS afterthought, but since 2015 he’s averaged 0.33 touchdowns per game (including playoffs). Since joining the Saints in 2017, Ginn has averaged 13.6 DraftKings points, 48.8 yards and 0.75 touchdowns on 4.8 targets and 3.5 receptions in four games against the Bucs. Ginn has a highly exploitable matchup on the perimeter against rookie cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Bucs OLBs Carl Nassib (groin) and Anthony Nelson (hamstring) are out. CB Carlton Davis (hip) is in. CB M.J. Stewart (knee) is out.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Deebo Samuel
Photo credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
