We’re now into the second half of the NFL season, with Week 11 upon us. As usual, DraftKings is opening contests and releasing salaries for the week ahead on Sunday evening. In the fast-changing landscape of the NFL, that leaves plenty of time for obvious value to appear.
Let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 11, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently. Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
For full access to our models, you’ll need to sign up for a FantasyLabs subscription:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Daniel Jones ($5,700) New York Giants (-3) vs. Detroit Lions (46 total)
At this point, we could almost remove the quarterback’s name and just leave “vs. Detroit Lions” as our top quarterback value. Detroit’s +1.4 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed isn’t terrible, but it belies just how awful their defense has been. Remember, Opponent Plus/Minus factors in salary. In terms of raw points allowed, Detroit ranks 32nd against quarterbacks.
They’ve especially struggled against quarterbacks with an ability to run the ball. The combination of a man-heavy defensive scheme and weak interior line allows plenty of running room. Justin Fields set season highs in yards and touchdowns last week against Detroit with a 13/67/2 line. That’s a solid day before he even attempts a pass.
While Jones isn’t quite the runner that Fields is, he’s averaging just under eight attempts and 43 yards per game, with three touchdowns in nine contests. That’s a solid 6+ points through his legs against an average team — and the Lions are well below average.
Mix in the Lions’ 24th-ranked passing defense by DVOA, and you have a recipe for success. Jones is underpriced by at least $1,000 this week and easily leads the position in Pts/Sal projection.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Garrett Wilson ($4,900) New York Jets (+3) at New England Patriots (38.5 total)
As is often the case with rookie wide receivers, Wilson is starting to come on in the second half of the season. Over the last two weeks, he’s turned 16 targets into 14 catches and 217 yards. Unfortunately (at least if you played him), he was held out of the end zone in both contests.
In fact, he’s been held scoreless since Week 2, despite solid production overall. He’s certainly a prime regression candidate in that department — he had both a target and a carry in the red zone last week.
It’s not the cleanest matchup or game environment in New England, but Wilson is underpriced for his talent and volume. When you factor in the natural improvements of a rookie throughout this season and some touchdown regression, he could have a blowup game on the horizon.
Hopefully, that game comes this week while his price is still cheap. He’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection among wide receivers.
NFL DFS Running Back Values
Josh Jacobs ($7,500) Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at Denver Broncos (41.5 total)
Jacobs has been one of the pleasant surprises of this fantasy season. His name was being floated around as a potential cut during training camp, and now he’s one of the league’s few workhorse backs. He ranks fifth in carries on the season and has seen more targets than all of the backs ranked ahead of him in carries.
This week, he draws a Broncos defense that has largely struggled against running backs all season. They have a +3 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed and rank 20th in DVOA against the run. While they were able to contain Derrick Henry last week, that’s been the exception, not the rule.
The Raiders have enough ability in the passing game to keep the Broncos honest — something the Titans lack — and limit the number of stacked boxes Jacobs will have to face. Even if the game script gets away from them, his passing-down involvement gives him a reasonable floor.
Jacobs leads all running backs in Pts/Sal projection.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Dalton Schultz ($4,300) Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) at Minnesota Vikings (47.5 total)
Most of our favorite “punt” tight ends have had their salaries bumped up in the past week or two — to the point where it becomes worthwhile to look more to the mid-range of the position. That zone is headlined by Schultz, who has 17 catches over the past three weeks since returning from injury.
He’s in a great spot this week, with the Vikings allowing an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.2 to the position — worst on the slate. Defense vs. position statistics are more predictive at tight end than any other offensive position, so that’s a notable figure.
This game should also provide a solid offensive environment, with it being played in a dome against a strong offensive team. Schultz is the leader in Pts/Sal at both tight end and among all “flex” position players.
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